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Bubble Watch....

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Tenspro2002 said:
It may bode well going forward, but as far as the Committee and the computer numbers that they use (i.e. the RPI; not KenPom, not BPI) are concerned, there's no difference between a 2-point loss and a 20-point loss. The damage has been done.

Hopefully we can rectify the middling RPI and bring it into better agreement with the "eye test" or the more meaningful metrics this month.
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BPI may or may not be used but it's pretty much a metric comprised of the things the committee supposedly uses.
 
These are the Ken Pomeroy ratings where UConn is #21. Assuming UConn splits with SMU, beats Houston and Tulsa at home, splits the road games with Cincy and Temple...

9 Maryland
22 SMU
28 Texas
33 Cincinnati
35 Gonzaga
36 Syracuse
38 Michigan
60 Georgetown
65 Tulsa
75 Ohio St.
83 Houston
92 Temple
94 Memphis

UConn could then be 4-5 against the top 50 and 11-8 against the top 100. No losses outside the top 100.

Again, UConn would be having a strong season were it not for the major meltdowns at the end of the Cincy and Temple games at home. OUCH.

Surprised that CBS has Michigan ranked ahead of UConn: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/top25
 
Jerry1714 said:
Our defensive efficiency ranking is currently #5 in the country. This takes into account the efficiency of the opponents offense as well, so it is not a stat that you could say is off basis because our opponents stink.
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That sounds like a pretty impressive statistic. Where can I get a definition of that stat?
 
dennismenace said:
That sounds like a pretty impressive statistic. Where can I get a definition of that stat?
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It's not much more than what was said, but here you go. He doesn't provide the specific formula or anything.

"AdjD - Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense."

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_glossary
 
We don't seem to be a good shooting team and maybe it's a result of the major emphasis on D which is paying dividends. They need to talk to Ray about his shooting protocol.
 
auror said:
They've got 6 good losses (all top 25 KenPom teams), as opposed to our mostly okay losses.
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Still though, Temple and Tulsa are the only two out of the top 25. So, a win over them has to count for something, no?

UConn has 4 losses in top 36.
 
BobbySteels said:
It's hard after a heart-wrenching loss like Cinci, but with the opportunities left, SMU being ineligible, and having Brimah back, I am fully confident this team will be dancing in March. Obviously, you'd like to be in a better position, but I think they're in a solid place and perhaps exactly where KO expected the Huskies to be at the start of the season; improving as March nears. Now with a healthy Brimah and the D already playing LOCK up we should become much more cohesive and our half-court offense/execution will vastly improve.
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Welcome!
 
upstater said:
Still though, Temple and Tulsa are the only two out of the top 25. So, a win over them has to count for something, no?

UConn has 4 losses in top 36.
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I'd rank us ahead because we're better, but they've got a better resume.

Michigan is 4-5 in KenPom "A" games and 1-0 in "B" games. With no losses in other games.
UConn is 4-4 in "A" games but also 0-1 in "B" games and with a loss outside of A or B.

Same number of good wins, and worse losses. To me a neutral court head to head win doesn't outweigh a loss to barely top 100 Temple at home, but I admit I do put less stock in head to head than most.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
It may bode well going forward, but as far as the Committee and the computer numbers that they use (i.e. the RPI; not KenPom, not BPI) are concerned, there's no difference between a 2-point loss and a 20-point loss. The damage has been done.

Hopefully we can rectify the middling RPI and bring it into better agreement with the "eye test" or the more meaningful metrics this month.
Expand ...
Except the head of the NCAA committee said they will be looking at other metrics this year (i.e. KenPom) in addition to the RPI.
 
auror said:
Michigan is 4-5 in KenPom "A" games and 1-0 in "B" games. With no losses in other games.
UConn is 4-4 in "A" games but also 0-1 in "B" games and with a loss outside of A or B.
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I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
 
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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We don't have any mulligans left, and a loss to a sub 100 team like Houston is a mulligan with the Committee. We are 4-6 vs. the Top 100 RPI, which is not a good record. If UConn wins 3 of Cincinnati, Tulsa, Temple, and SMU (x2), and doesn't get any bad losses, we should be OK as long as we make the AAC semi finals.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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Ooh, idk about that one. UConn loses those 4 of the last 6 games would leave them with an RPI of 56. That's would probably put UConn in the territory of needing to win the entire conference tourney to get in the NCAAs.
 
upstater said:
I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
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IIRC, A games are adjusted top 50 games and B games are adjusted top 100 games. The adjusted takes home or away into account. Playing a top 50 team at home is easier than playing a top 75 team on the road.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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Realistic? I guess. Going to happen? No. Would that put UConn in the dance without winning the AAC tournament? Slim chance
 
upstater said:
I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
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Yeah my bad Michigan is 4-6 in A games. Basically, same number of A wins, one less B win, and worse losses.
 
We need to go 7-2 down the stretch and get to the AAC Championship Game to feel "safe," barring any NCAA witch hunt.
 
With UConns RPI standing at 48 (46 without UL and SMU) things are moving in the right direction.
 
mdkhusky said:
that is unbelievably untrue if we go 7-2 were playing for seeding
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He is not far off as we can't afford to have 10 losses this year. So even if we lose in the NCAA tournament we would only have 9 losses. If we have 10 losses we are clearly on the bubble and good chance not making it. We just have to keep on winning one game at a time and we won't have to worry about this scenario.
 
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Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)
ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W
AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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1) No, not good enough to get in
2) More likely to lose @Temple than at home to Houston
3) If we go 0-4 vs. SMU & Cincy how do we deserve an at large bid....really need a split but at least 1 win for god sake
4) We can maybe weather 9 regular season losses, not 10

I really think we are playing better....Adams & DHam on upswing, Miller & Purvis solid...I see 7-2 down the stretch....keys will be to get 1 win @Temple or @Cincy, split with SMU & win the rest.
 
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The only way we have a chance at getting in at 23-11 is if we beat SMU twice or beat cincy and split with SMU. We just can't afford not to win one of those 3 games in any scenario 10(have to have 1 out of 3) or 11 losses(2 out of 3).
Though with 11 losses we are talking about another bad loss. So ideally we can lose 3 and maybe 4 more games to get in.
 
updated again:

Connecticut [17-6 (7-3), RPI: 47, SOS: 70] Do wins over UCF, Memphis and East Carolina get the Bubble Watch's blood pumping? No. Not usually, anyway. When they are handled with the type of dominant verve UConn displayed in its past three games -- two of which were on the road, and which came by a combined margin of 64 points -- our proverbial ears perk up. This is why per-possession statistics can be so helpful, after all: They highlight the nuance and detail of wins. The RPI algorithm won't be so impressed. It's also wrong. The rate of return on a win at Texas is skyrocketing, sure, but the best sign for the Huskies -- who are still 4-6 against the top 100 -- is the really good basketball they happen to be playing.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
 
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