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Bubble Watch....

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Tenspro2002 said:
It may bode well going forward, but as far as the Committee and the computer numbers that they use (i.e. the RPI; not KenPom, not BPI) are concerned, there's no difference between a 2-point loss and a 20-point loss. The damage has been done.

Hopefully we can rectify the middling RPI and bring it into better agreement with the "eye test" or the more meaningful metrics this month.
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Except the head of the NCAA committee said they will be looking at other metrics this year (i.e. KenPom) in addition to the RPI.
 
auror said:
Michigan is 4-5 in KenPom "A" games and 1-0 in "B" games. With no losses in other games.
UConn is 4-4 in "A" games but also 0-1 in "B" games and with a loss outside of A or B.
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I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
 
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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We don't have any mulligans left, and a loss to a sub 100 team like Houston is a mulligan with the Committee. We are 4-6 vs. the Top 100 RPI, which is not a good record. If UConn wins 3 of Cincinnati, Tulsa, Temple, and SMU (x2), and doesn't get any bad losses, we should be OK as long as we make the AAC semi finals.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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Ooh, idk about that one. UConn loses those 4 of the last 6 games would leave them with an RPI of 56. That's would probably put UConn in the territory of needing to win the entire conference tourney to get in the NCAAs.
 
upstater said:
I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
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IIRC, A games are adjusted top 50 games and B games are adjusted top 100 games. The adjusted takes home or away into account. Playing a top 50 team at home is easier than playing a top 75 team on the road.
 
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Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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Realistic? I guess. Going to happen? No. Would that put UConn in the dance without winning the AAC tournament? Slim chance
 
upstater said:
I'm not sure what qualifies as an A game or B game, but I do know you left out a Michigan loss. They have 6 losses.
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Yeah my bad Michigan is 4-6 in A games. Basically, same number of A wins, one less B win, and worse losses.
 
We need to go 7-2 down the stretch and get to the AAC Championship Game to feel "safe," barring any NCAA witch hunt.
 
With UConns RPI standing at 48 (46 without UL and SMU) things are moving in the right direction.
 
mdkhusky said:
that is unbelievably untrue if we go 7-2 were playing for seeding
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He is not far off as we can't afford to have 10 losses this year. So even if we lose in the NCAA tournament we would only have 9 losses. If we have 10 losses we are clearly on the bubble and good chance not making it. We just have to keep on winning one game at a time and we won't have to worry about this scenario.
 
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Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)
ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W
AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
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1) No, not good enough to get in
2) More likely to lose @Temple than at home to Houston
3) If we go 0-4 vs. SMU & Cincy how do we deserve an at large bid....really need a split but at least 1 win for god sake
4) We can maybe weather 9 regular season losses, not 10

I really think we are playing better....Adams & DHam on upswing, Miller & Purvis solid...I see 7-2 down the stretch....keys will be to get 1 win @Temple or @Cincy, split with SMU & win the rest.
 
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The only way we have a chance at getting in at 23-11 is if we beat SMU twice or beat cincy and split with SMU. We just can't afford not to win one of those 3 games in any scenario 10(have to have 1 out of 3) or 11 losses(2 out of 3).
Though with 11 losses we are talking about another bad loss. So ideally we can lose 3 and maybe 4 more games to get in.
 
updated again:

Connecticut [17-6 (7-3), RPI: 47, SOS: 70] Do wins over UCF, Memphis and East Carolina get the Bubble Watch's blood pumping? No. Not usually, anyway. When they are handled with the type of dominant verve UConn displayed in its past three games -- two of which were on the road, and which came by a combined margin of 64 points -- our proverbial ears perk up. This is why per-possession statistics can be so helpful, after all: They highlight the nuance and detail of wins. The RPI algorithm won't be so impressed. It's also wrong. The rate of return on a win at Texas is skyrocketing, sure, but the best sign for the Huskies -- who are still 4-6 against the top 100 -- is the really good basketball they happen to be playing.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
 
It's this line of thinking that creates false expectations to which the BY goes nuts over after every loss (myself included). Nobody knows what the rest of the field is going to do the rest of the season. Bottom line, Uconn still holds the key to their season. Keep playing the way they are and the wins will come.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Here's a realistic forecast for remainder of season:

Currently: 16-6 (6-3)

ECU - W
Temple - W
Tulsa - W
SMU - L
Cincy - L
USF - W
Houston -L
SMU - L
UCF - W

AAC Tourney, Win 2, lose 1
Finished Record: 23-11...I think that's good enough to get in.
Expand ...

I don't think we lose both to SMU and I don't think we lose to Houston. So add two wins and subtract an L. I also see this team gelling and winning the American. Talent wise we're the best team in the league, including SMU. I wouldn't be at all suprised if we handle Cinci in the rematch as well.
 
3rdbass said:
The only way we have a chance at getting in at 23-11 is if we beat SMU twice or beat cincy and split with SMU. We just can't afford not to win one of those 3 games in any scenario 10(have to have 1 out of 3) or 11 losses(2 out of 3).
Though with 11 losses we are talking about another bad loss. So ideally we can lose 3 and maybe 4 more games to get in.
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I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf
 
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scdono said:
I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf
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At 22-9 we will have have an RPI of 42 so I would not recommend losing game 1 of the AAC or it will get really sweaty on Selection Sunday.
 
scdono said:
I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf
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I think if we're playing for seating, we should contact Ater Majok he has a few extra chairs.
 
22 wins and AT LEAST one win in AAC tourney. That'd put us at 23-10 and most likely in. If we get to 24 wins, I think we're almost a lock.
 
scdono said:
I mean this nicely: you are clueless. 22-9 and we're in playing the tournament for seating. We don't need to beat Cincinnati or smu at all to be in. We can't have a bad loss. Can't lose to Tulsa, temple Houston or ucf
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You must of misread what I said. If we have 11'losses we are going to be sweating and most likely not make it. I never said we don't get in with 9 losses. I said if we have 11 losses the only way we get in is with a couple big wins against smu twice or cincy and smu once.
 
Updated today:

Connecticut [19-7 (9-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 42] Nice as Saturday's two-point holdout against Tulsa was, Thursday -- when the Huskies beat SMU 68-62 -- was the biggest night UConn has had in conference play by far. On Dec. 29, Kevin Ollie's team knocked off Texas in Austin, and no one realized at the time how valuable that win would become. Even as UT helpfully rose through the Big 12 ranks, and even as Ollie's team continued to improve on the defensive end, the highest reaches of its resume were limited to Texas and Texas alone. Thursday changed that in a significant fashion. If Connecticut can get out of Cincinnati with a season split on Saturday, we'll start feeling pretty safe about its eventual spot in the NCAA tournament -- particularly with another crack at SMU (March 3) still on the docket.
 
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If we win tomorrow, barring a complete collapse, we should be all set. Big one tomorrow vs. Cincinnati.
 
Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.


Cincinnati now: 9-5
UConn: L
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 11-7 #who knows In AAC

UConn now: 9-4
@ Cincinatti: W
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 13-5 #2 in AAC

Or

Cincinnati now: current 9-5
UConn: W
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 12-6 #3

UConn now: Current 9-4
@ Cincinatti: L
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 12-7 #2 in AAC (UConn wins tie breaker due to head to head w/ SMU)

That win last night pretty much wrapped up 2nd in the AAC. A win Saturday doesn't guarantee anything but it really puts uconn in the drivers seat. And obviously winning saturday and at SMU, barring disaster, is almost a lock. Though that is a whole other feat. A loss Saturday probably puts UConn at a point where they play Cinci in the semifinals of the AAC which will end up be somewhat of a play-in game for the tournament.
 
If no WTF losses - UConn is all set - even if they lose to Cincy and SMU - they needed to beat Cincy if lost to SMU, now its not that dire
BUT they should still beat Cincy
 
storrs15 said:
Connecticut (18–7) at Cincinnati (19–7)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN2

The Huskies are just barely on the right side of the bubble, while the Bearcats are just barely outside. Cincinnati won the first meeting between these teams in Storrs, but UConn has the superior résumé outside that game. The Bearcats could negate that advantage with a season sweep.


Cincinnati now: 9-5
UConn: L
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 11-7 #who knows In AAC

UConn now: 9-4
@ Cincinatti: W
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 13-5 #2 in AAC

Or

Cincinnati now: current 9-5
UConn: W
ECU: W
Houston: W
Vs. SMU: L
Final 12-6 #3

UConn now: Current 9-4
@ Cincinatti: L
South Florida: W
Houston: W
@ SMU: L
UCF: W
Final 12-7 #2 in AAC (UConn wins tie breaker due to head to head w/ SMU)

That win last night pretty much wrapped up 2nd in the AAC. A win Saturday doesn't guarantee anything but it really puts uconn in the drivers seat. And obviously winning saturday and at SMU, barring disaster, is almost a lock. Though that is a whole other feat. A loss Saturday probably puts UConn at a point where they play Cinci in the semifinals of the AAC which will end up be somewhat of a play-in game for the tournament.
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Are you sure? Wouldn't the first tie-breaker be head-to-head results? In your second scenario we will have lost both games with Cincy and they would own the tie breaker bumping us to the third seed.

I'm not taking the home game against Houston for granted either. We can't phone that one in.
 
Obviously winning out makes them golden. Basic summary: Tomorrow isnt a must win but if they dont win they need to snag 1 out of the upcoming SMU/High AAC Tournament seed (which will either be Cincinnati or theyll beat a Memphis kind of team then end up having to play Temple.) They probably need to snag one of those games to lock
 
Peacefrog said:
Are you sure? Wouldn't the first tie-breaker be head-to-head results? In your second scenario we will have lost both games with Cincy and they would own the tie breaker bumping us to the third seed.

I'm not taking the home game against Houston for granted either. We can't phone that one in.
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Damn true. Knew there had to be one mistake in there. Its a huge opportunity tomorrow but not a must win after last nights win.

And Houston is a should win game. 1 PM on a Sunday in Storrs, high energy. Though youre right, its not guaranteed
 
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