Bubble Watch....

[BobbySteels]

I guess I'm a bit less sanguine about the defense. There are many here who analyze this kind of stuff much more closely than I, but it hasn't struck me that we have necessarily been playing great defense. Certainly we haven't been allowing many points but has it been because of our defense or the opponent's offense? A serious question as I don't get to watch most of the games. I did see the UCF game and noted as the game went on how many good looks UCF seemed to get but simply bricked the shots.

Well it's certainly worth a discussion although hard to ignore the stats and you can only chalk it up to poor shooting so many times before there's a pretty evident trend that the Huskies are a really good defensive team.

 

[caw]

I believe there was a pre-season Top 25 floating around here from one of our more knowledgeable posters with UConn in the top 5 or higher. There was not much support for the idea that UConn would be bubble-watching the entire second half of the season.

Well I forget how high I had UConn. Again, those projections had Brimah in the lineup all season. What ranking do you think UConn has at 16-5? 17-4? 18-3?

I would say 16-5 has UConn around 22-25. 17-4 has UConn around 15-18. And 18-3 has UConn at 8-12, maybe higher. Does that seem fair?

The question then comes down to whether Brimah is worth 2 points at home against Temple? 1 point against Cincy at home? The hardest to sell myself on is Tulsa at Tulsa but that was a 4 point game with 3 to go, so the final score may not do justice to how close it was and the potential difference Brimah could have made. I would bet UConn would be 17-4 with Brimah healthy all year.

Now oddly I think UConn could have a higher ceiling now than it did pre Brimah injury because the rest of the team has shown they can play stellar defense without being reliant on Brimah. If that holds, UConn could have a scary good defense the rest of the way. And in 1-2 shots Brimah makes that Nolan can't and this team still has a ton of potential.

The three bubble teams that could be higher than current data indicates are Duke, Cuse and UConn due to their injuries/coaches out.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Brimah's injury had nothing to do with booting the games against Maryland, Syracuse, and Gonzaga right out of the gate and, honestly, that we have to justify a Tulsa loss or that ridiculous blown opportunity against Cincy the other night sort of reflects how they've under-performed, doesn't it?

 

[auror]

I'm not sure what people as a whole thought UConns record would be right now? 18-3, 17-4? I think the argument to be made is that with Brimah UConn is either a plus 1 or plus 2 from its current record. Either 17-4 or 16-5 with a sliver of a shot at 18-3. I think he is worth the difference at home against at least one of Temple and Cincy and maybe both. 17-4 would probably have UConn in the top 30 RPI and top 25 overall. We shall see how the rest of the year plays out with him in the lineup.

Yes, most of us overrated the team a bit. KenPom has us at #26 right now (which accounts for margin of victory and the close losses help there) and BPI puts us at #29 (which takes injuries into account but not Brimah currently as he just misses the minutes to qualify).

We were ranked around #18 to start the year and most people felt that was either about right or pessimistic. I'd put my guess of the (made-up) general Boneyard ranking range as #10-18, with some outliers in both directions.

I guess I'm a bit less sanguine about the defense. There are many here who analyze this kind of stuff much more closely than I, but it hasn't struck me that we have necessarily been playing great defense. Certainly we haven't been allowing many points but has it been because of our defense or the opponent's offense? A serious question as I don't get to watch most of the games. I did see the UCF game and noted as the game went on how many good looks UCF seemed to get but simply bricked the shots.

During conference play only and not adjusting for opponent, we'd have the lowest points per possession against (aka best D) in the country. As someone pointed out above, for the full season with adjustments we're #5 in the country. We make it tough on teams. We had a few rough games (UMass Lowell, Memphis, one of the Tulane games, Syracuse, Maryland), but no truly horrendous ones. In the pic below, the rank next to the raw number in the column represents where UConn's defense in just that game ranked against the rest of that team's games this year. A lot of top 4's, including Ohio State, Sacred Heart, Houston, and UCF being completely shut down relative to the rest of their games.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The average projection from this board was that we'd be ranked preseason around #10-15, and work our way into the Top 10 as the season went on. The losses were expected to be 1 in Atlantis (say, Gonzaga), Maryland, @ Cincy, @ SMU, and a wtf loss in there. So at this point, we were expected to have maybe 3 losses, en route to 5 losses total heading into the AACT.

Instead, we started preseason around #15-20 and worked our way out of the Top 25. We performed a little worse than expected OOC, with a slower start than anticipated in the first few weeks, and with several disappointing losses in the AAC. As it is, we have 6 losses already, en route to probably 8 losses heading into the AACT. The unexpected loss of Brimah can excuse maybe 1 of those.

Yes, we overrated our team in the preseason and are correctly being called out for it. Yes, this season has been disappointing so far. We do have time to correct that perception, but it's getting late.

 

[caw]

Brimah's injury had nothing to do with booting the games against Maryland, Syracuse, and Gonzaga right out of the gate and, honestly, that we have to justify a Tulsa loss or that ridiculous blown opportunity against Cincy the other night sort of reflects how they've under-performed, doesn't it?

No because we are talking about preseason expectations and UConn fans over rating the team based on those expectations. Preseason expectations were based on having Brimah for a full season. Games without him can't be factored into how the team has done relative to those preseason expectations.

Put it another way, would anyone have said UConn would be ranked as a top 5, 10, 15, etc. team of you told them Brimah would miss about 10 games? I don't think so, unless you believe Brimah isn't an upgrade.

The only game UConn lost that it shouldn't have, based on preseason expectations, with Brimah, is arguably the Cuse game. Go zags and Maryland were considered top 10-15 teams and 50-50 games at best.

Has UConn underperformed without Brimah in the sense of losing games it could have won even and not playing up to its ability every game. Yes. 100% yes.

Those are two different things though.

 

[caw]

The average projection from this board was that we'd be ranked preseason around #10-15, and work our way into the Top 10 as the season went on. The losses were expected to be 1 in Atlantis (say, Gonzaga), Maryland, @ Cincy, @ SMU, and a wtf loss in there. So at this point, we were expected to have maybe 3 losses, en route to 5 losses total heading into the AACT.

Instead, we started preseason around #15-20 and worked our way out of the Top 25. We performed a little worse than expected OOC, with a slower start than anticipated in the first few weeks, and with several disappointing losses in the AAC. As it is, we have 6 losses already, en route to probably 8 losses heading into the AACT. The unexpected loss of Brimah can excuse maybe 1 of those.

Yes, we overrated our team in the preseason and are correctly being called out for it. Yes, this season has been disappointing so far. We do have time to correct that perception, but it's getting late.

I think one could argue Brimahs injury could have been the difference in both the Cincy and Temple games. Maybe not, but I think it's arguable at least.

 

[intlzncster]

Instead, we started preseason around #15-20 and worked our way out of the Top 25. We performed a little worse than expected OOC, with a slower start than anticipated in the first few weeks, and with several disappointing losses in the AAC. As it is, we have 6 losses already, en route to probably 8 losses heading into the AACT. The unexpected loss of Brimah can excuse maybe 1 of those.

So Brimah is barely worth the difference in only one of those losses? Objectively, starting him vs Nolan/Facey just isn't a (near) wash.

I'm not saying we've looked good, just that a healthy Brimah (developing with the team all season long) probably gives us two of those wins back.

 

[KemBuckets21]

UConn fans did overrate them, I don't see how you can argue with that.

I agree that they're not as good as we thought. But they're not as bad or mediocre as that article may lead you to believe. Four losses by an avg of just over 2 points and a thrown paper incident away from a good chance at beating UM. In the end, the committee doesn't consider "close calls" (do they?). So it's just up to the guys to take care of business from here.

 

[auror]

In the end, the committee doesn't consider "close calls" (do they?). .

Only incidentally, by looking at metrics that care about margin of victory (KenPom, Adjusted Scoring Margin, etc.). Actual W/L obviously much more important.

 

[KemBuckets21]

Only incidentally, by looking at metrics that care about margin of victory (KenPom, Adjusted Scoring Margin, etc.). Actual W/L obviously much more important.

Thanks for the insight.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This team is honestly no different now than I had imagined they'd be to start the year. If you told me Brimah would get hurt and be out over a month, I'd guess our record would maybe be 1 win better or so than it currently is at this point. As a previous poster stated, we're 2 buckets away from being a top 25 team.

Simple fact of this team is this... We had a lot of new pieces, so the chemistry was always going to take time to develop. And the new pieces aren't bench guys coming in to contribute here and there... they're starters and key cogs. This team was never going to play like a well oiled machine from the get go. Throw in the wrench of Brimah's injury, and now it's going to take a little longer for th is team to reach it's peak. I don't think anyone would say this team's come remotely close to its ceiling. Consistency is also an issue.

But, we're full strength now with Brimah back. I think KO has his line up and rotations figured out so guys are learning their roles on this team and becoming more comfortable. Hopefully they figure it out soon enough to go dancing and avoid too ty of a seed, there's not much margin of error. But I don't doubt this team's ability to play at a high level and be a force come March. The defense has been dominant, and that was without Brimah. The offense will come along... we have too many weapons for it to NOT improve. It's all about chemistry and consistency at this point going forward.

Good post. The team plays like the players just met each other, because they did. Add a Brimah injury to that, and the record is explainable.

If people want to blame anyone for this year, blame Warde. He completely fumbled the transition from Calhoun to Ollie, and we lost two recruiting classes as a result. Imagine what this team would look like without Gibbs and Miller and Brimah still injured. We would be lucky to be .500.

 

[scdono]

The average projection from this board was that we'd be ranked preseason around #10-15, and work our way into the Top 10 as the season went on. The losses were expected to be 1 in Atlantis (say, Gonzaga), Maryland, @ Cincy, @ SMU, and a wtf loss in there. So at this point, we were expected to have maybe 3 losses, en route to 5 losses total heading into the AACT.

Instead, we started preseason around #15-20 and worked our way out of the Top 25. We performed a little worse than expected OOC, with a slower start than anticipated in the first few weeks, and with several disappointing losses in the AAC. As it is, we have 6 losses already, en route to probably 8 losses heading into the AACT. The unexpected loss of Brimah can excuse maybe 1 of those.

Yes, we overrated our team in the preseason and are correctly being called out for it. Yes, this season has been disappointing so far. We do have time to correct that perception, but it's getting late.

This is good analysis but one disagreement. The entire top 25 is totally beatable. There are very good teams but no great teams. This is a year of parity. Therefore, UConn is capable of beating anyone. Carolina has been very good but beatable. Kentucky looks beatable. Duke has fallen apart. Michigan state is beatable. I don't believe in Oklahoma. Providence just got beat by DePaul. Villanova is hyped and overrated. We played Maryland and can hang with them.

I think we blew games and offense hasn't gelled but this team is "capable" as any team in the top 25. Take away three mind numbing losses, temple, Tulsa and Cincinnati, and we're a top 15 team. All the losses were without Brimah and yes he would have made a big difference in each game.

 

[Kitaman]

I hate bubble talk, hopefully we will eliminate this subject in our not to distant future.

 

[August_West]

UConn fans did overrate them, I don't see how you can argue with that.

It wasn't UConn fans that had them ranked between 15-18 in the preseason polls.

 

[auror]

It wasn't UConn fans that had them ranked between 15-18 in the preseason polls.

Most had them ranked better than that.

 

[Jerry1714]

Updated today:

Connecticut [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 50, SOS: 61] On Tuesday, the Watch had to deliver some sobering news to a particularly overexuberant subset of UConn fans who drilled us for not putting them in the preseason Top 25. With that bit of business settled, we extend our hand in peace. Because here's the thing: Connecticut's RPI drastically underrates Connecticut's performance. The Huskies are just shy of cracking the top 20 of KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. The Basketball Power Index sees UConn as a top-30 team. The RPI has the Huskies down around the high 50s or early 60s, depending on the day, and that's a pretty marginal number for a team with one of the best per-possession defenses in the land. Close losses -- one-possession drops to Syracuse, Gonzaga, Temple and Cincinnati -- help explain the discrepancy. Either way, the Huskies are playing better than the numbers next to their name indicate. At the very least, it bodes well moving forward.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

 

[businesslawyer]

Given the individual talent we have, I would have thought that we'd be a better offensive club than we are right now. THere is no reason in a blowout win that Purvis, Gibbs, Adams and Omar should be something like 2 for 14 from 3.

The good news, of course, is that it should be harder to blend talent on the defensive end than the offensive end, and we've done that successfully, and the individual talent is still there on the offensive end for this to be a Top 20 team and make a tournament run. If Hamilton plays like he played last night, we only need Purvis and Gibbs and Omar to shoot their historical averages from 3 and we'll be very good.

Because of our D, we are already good enough to beat almost anyone (this year) on any night. We need to improve offensively to be able to beat good teams a few games in a row. I haven't come close to giving up yet. Although I'd like to be smoother offensively than we've been to date.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Updated today:

Connecticut [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 50, SOS: 61] On Tuesday, the Watch had to deliver some sobering news to a particularly overexuberant subset of UConn fans who drilled us for not putting them in the preseason Top 25. With that bit of business settled, we extend our hand in peace. Because here's the thing: Connecticut's RPI drastically underrates Connecticut's performance. The Huskies are just shy of cracking the top 20 of KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. The Basketball Power Index sees UConn as a top-30 team. The RPI has the Huskies down around the high 50s or early 60s, depending on the day, and that's a pretty marginal number for a team with one of the best per-possession defenses in the land. Close losses -- one-possession drops to Syracuse, Gonzaga, Temple and Cincinnati -- help explain the discrepancy. Either way, the Huskies are playing better than the numbers next to their name indicate. At the very least, it bodes well moving forward.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

It may bode well going forward, but as far as the Committee and the computer numbers that they use (i.e. the RPI; not KenPom, not BPI) are concerned, there's no difference between a 2-point loss and a 20-point loss. The damage has been done.

Hopefully we can rectify the middling RPI and bring it into better agreement with the "eye test" or the more meaningful metrics this month.

 

[nomar]

Given the individual talent we have, I would have thought that we'd be a better offensive club than we are right now. THere is no reason in a blowout win that Purvis, Gibbs, Adams and Omar should be something like 2 for 14 from 3.

The good news, of course, is that it should be harder to blend talent on the defensive end than the offensive end, and we've done that successfully, and the individual talent is still there on the offensive end for this to be a Top 20 team and make a tournament run. If Hamilton plays like he played last night, we only need Purvis and Gibbs and Omar to shoot their historical averages from 3 and we'll be very good.

Because of our D, we are already good enough to beat almost anyone (this year) on any night. We need to improve offensively to be able to beat good teams a few games in a row. I haven't come close to giving up yet. Although I'd like to be smoother offensively than we've been to date.

If our offense starts jelling, watch out.

We beat a decent team on their home floor by 20, and we didn't play well offensively. Imagine if we were able to hit some open shots.

Hamilton is shooting 38%
Gibbs is shooting 40%
Calhoun is shooting 39%
Adams is shooting 17% from 3

Those numbers should all be higher. Obviously there's more to it than just hitting open shots; we're not running the offense sufficiently well to generate enough good looks.

I keep waiting for it to click with Gibbs. He shot 43% last season, 44% from 3. This year he's at 40%/38%. He's had some nice games but he's just been very inconsistent.

You just never know. In 2011, Kemba and Jeremy both struggled during the middle of the season. We had absolutely no reason to suspect that Lamb would start beasting once March rolled around. Any one or or more of our scorers could just start lighting it up.

Or none of them will, and we'll be gone by the end of the first weekend.

 

[caw]

It may bode well going forward, but as far as the Committee and the computer numbers that they use (i.e. the RPI; not KenPom, not BPI) are concerned, there's no difference between a 2-point loss and a 20-point loss. The damage has been done.

Hopefully we can rectify the middling RPI and bring it into better agreement with the "eye test" or the more meaningful metrics this month.

BPI may or may not be used but it's pretty much a metric comprised of the things the committee supposedly uses.

 

[upstater]

These are the Ken Pomeroy ratings where UConn is #21. Assuming UConn splits with SMU, beats Houston and Tulsa at home, splits the road games with Cincy and Temple...

9 Maryland
22 SMU
28 Texas
33 Cincinnati
35 Gonzaga
36 Syracuse
38 Michigan
60 Georgetown
65 Tulsa
75 Ohio St.
83 Houston
92 Temple
94 Memphis

UConn could then be 4-5 against the top 50 and 11-8 against the top 100. No losses outside the top 100.

Again, UConn would be having a strong season were it not for the major meltdowns at the end of the Cincy and Temple games at home. OUCH.

Surprised that CBS has Michigan ranked ahead of UConn: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/top25

 

[dennismenace]

Our defensive efficiency ranking is currently #5 in the country. This takes into account the efficiency of the opponents offense as well, so it is not a stat that you could say is off basis because our opponents stink.

That sounds like a pretty impressive statistic. Where can I get a definition of that stat?

 

[Leebo]

That sounds like a pretty impressive statistic. Where can I get a definition of that stat?

It's not much more than what was said, but here you go. He doesn't provide the specific formula or anything.

"AdjD - Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense."

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_glossary

 

[jibsey]

We don't seem to be a good shooting team and maybe it's a result of the major emphasis on D which is paying dividends. They need to talk to Ray about his shooting protocol.

 

[caw]

Btw RPI appears to be up to 48th after last night.

 

[auror]

Surprised that CBS has Michigan ranked ahead of UConn: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/top25

They've got 6 good losses (all top 25 KenPom teams), as opposed to our mostly okay losses.

 

[upstater]

They've got 6 good losses (all top 25 KenPom teams), as opposed to our mostly okay losses.

Still though, Temple and Tulsa are the only two out of the top 25. So, a win over them has to count for something, no?

UConn has 4 losses in top 36.

 

[David 76]

It's hard after a heart-wrenching loss like Cinci, but with the opportunities left, SMU being ineligible, and having Brimah back, I am fully confident this team will be dancing in March. Obviously, you'd like to be in a better position, but I think they're in a solid place and perhaps exactly where KO expected the Huskies to be at the start of the season; improving as March nears. Now with a healthy Brimah and the D already playing LOCK up we should become much more cohesive and our half-court offense/execution will vastly improve.

Welcome!

 

[auror]

Still though, Temple and Tulsa are the only two out of the top 25. So, a win over them has to count for something, no?

UConn has 4 losses in top 36.

I'd rank us ahead because we're better, but they've got a better resume.

Michigan is 4-5 in KenPom "A" games and 1-0 in "B" games. With no losses in other games.
UConn is 4-4 in "A" games but also 0-1 in "B" games and with a loss outside of A or B.

Same number of good wins, and worse losses. To me a neutral court head to head win doesn't outweigh a loss to barely top 100 Temple at home, but I admit I do put less stock in head to head than most.