Big 12 TV partners push back on expansion

[pepband99]

If Aresco was smart, he would try to renegotiate the AAC contract right now.

Yes, because pushing for more $$$ than a signed contract is great, when ESPN is already complaining about paying a contract under terms.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes, because pushing for more $$$ than a signed contract is great, when ESPN is already complaining about paying a contract under terms.

I don't speak pepband, but I think you are saying that ESPN won't be real excited about paying more on an existing contract than they already are. The AAC contract renegotiation starts in a year or two anyway. You may think UConn can pay its bills based on happy thoughts, but in reality, UConn needs more money for its athletic program to survive, and the best time to approach a customer is when they are pissed at one of your competitors.

 

[pepband99]

Not that hard...
ESPN is ticked about expansion candidates in the B12, even though they have it in contract already to pay.
Why would you, at the same time, ask for a look-in on contract which favors them right now? Combine that with the 0 leverage they have, and it won't end well.

 

[BlueMAB]

I don't speak pepband, but I think you are saying that ESPN won't be real excited about paying more on an existing contract than they already are. The AAC contract renegotiation starts in a year or two anyway. You may think UConn can pay its bills based on happy thoughts, but in reality, UConn needs more money for its athletic program to survive, and the best time to approach a customer is when they are pissed at one of your competitors.

The line about UConn is irrelevant, you just threw that in there to try and discredit any opposing view. It assumes that the AAC isn't losing UConn, something we don't know at this time.

Why wouldn't ESPN be similarly pissed at Aresco using this current round to try and get a better deal for AAC teams knowing that they already don't want to pay the B12 more money for AAC teams? Why would they even bother returning his calls before the B12 acts? Because if the AAC is gutted, they'll get the remaining product for even less than they do now in 1-2 years. Which will be the goal, since they'd be overpaying (in their eyes) for the B12.

 

[Excalibur]

Not that hard...
ESPN is ticked about expansion candidates in the B12, even though they have it in contract already to pay.
Why would you, at the same time, ask for a look-in on contract which favors them right now? Combine that with the 0 leverage they have, and it won't end well.

If ESPN thought that throwing a few more dollars could prevent a team from leaving, they'd be willing to negotiate. The likely response will be to tell Aresco to pound sand and wait to see who is actually in this shitshow of a conference in 2018.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The line about UConn is irrelevant, you just threw that in there to try and discredit any opposing view. It assumes that the AAC isn't losing UConn, something we don't know at this time.

Why wouldn't ESPN be similarly pissed at Aresco using this current round to try and get a better deal for AAC teams knowing that they already don't want to pay the B12 more money for AAC teams? Why would they even bother returning his calls before the B12 acts? Because if the AAC is gutted, they'll get the remaining product for even less than they do now in 1-2 years. Which will be the goal, since they'd be overpaying (in their eyes) for the B12.

If ESPN is going to gut the AAC, then ESPN will know that and the discussion is moot. Duh. If the Big 12 is just shaking down ESPN, which is highly possible, then the AAC can do ESPN a solid by taking less money than the Big 12 would require to lock up its teams through 2025.

 

[BlueMAB]

If ESPN is going to gut the AAC, then ESPN will know that and the discussion is moot. Duh. If the Big 12 is just shaking down ESPN, which is highly possible, then the AAC can do ESPN a solid by taking less money than the Big 12 would require to lock up its teams through 2025.

You know that ESPN is trying not to gut the AAC, yet, you say things like "If ESPN is going to gut the AAC, then ESPN will know that". It's very strange.

Why would ESPN give the AAC any money? Do you honestly think that Aresco is actually in a position to keep a team in the AAC if he can get more money from ESPN if the B12 is on the table for that school?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If ESPN thought that throwing a few more dollars could prevent a team from leaving, they'd be willing to negotiate. The likely response will be to tell Aresco to pound sand and wait to see who is actually in this shitshow of a conference in 2018.

ESPN has quite a bit of influence about which conference a team is in, and therefore how they pay for it. If ESPN offered $5MM a team per year to the AAC through 2025, the AAC would probably take it, even if there was some restriction of movement for the teams. That would cost ESPN $36MM a year more than it is paying the AAC now. The Big 12 may want $50MM a year not to expand, and ESPN doesn't get a nickel of extra content or quality for paying that. At least paying the AAC may result in a better product for TV.

That said, that is still ascribing a lot more intelligence than ESPN has ever shown. ESPN's low ball bid to the Big East in 2012 resulted in ESPN paying almost the same amount for Louisville, Pitt, and Syracuse, plust Notre Dame basketball and half of TCU and WVU, as they had offered the Big East for all of its teams.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You know that ESPN is trying not to gut the AAC, yet, you say things like "If ESPN is going to gut the AAC, then ESPN will know that". It's very strange.

Why would ESPN give the AAC any money? Do you honestly think that Aresco is actually in a position to keep a team in the AAC if he can get more money from ESPN if the B12 is on the table for that school?

If the Big 12 has no intention of adding any schools, which looks like a 50/50 proposition right now, then the Big 12 is just threatening to add more schools to get ESPN to give the Big 12 more money. If you are ESPN, and have a renegotiation of the bargain basement AAC contract coming up in a couple of years, why not just offer the AAC half of what you would have offered the Big 12 to NOT add teams? Figure out whatever details you want, but the AAC, at this moment, would probably take a reasonable offer because the AAC's leverage is highest right before the Big 12 reaches a deal with ESPN on its shakedown.

 

[BlueMAB]

If the Big 12 has no intention of adding any schools, which looks like a 50/50 proposition right now, then the Big 12 is just threatening to add more schools to get ESPN to give the Big 12 more money. If you are ESPN, and have a renegotiation of the bargain basement AAC contract coming up in a couple of years, why not just offer the AAC half of what you would have offered the Big 12 to NOT add teams? Figure out whatever details you want, but the AAC, at this moment, would probably take a reasonable offer because the AAC's leverage is highest right before the Big 12 reaches a deal with ESPN on its shakedown.

Because that half won't stop any school in the AAC from leaving to the B12, and that action might make the B12 go ahead and invite those schools to get all of what the contract calls for. Good luck getting Cinci, Houston, UConn, Memphis, USF and UCF to agree on hefty exit fees when they know that the B12 is seriously considering adding one of them.

There's much more being left on the table for G5 schools than TV money. The playoff bowl revenue, the NCAA tournament credits, the tier 3 rights (particularly for UConn/BYU). Doubling, tripling, quadrupling what we'll get once the exit fee money runs out isn't enough to keep up. For someone who so often rails on the financial shortfall we're facing, it's astonishing that you don't see that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because that half won't stop any school in the AAC from leaving to the B12, and that action might make the B12 go ahead and invite those schools to get all of what the contract calls for.

There's much more being left on the table for G5 schools than TV money. The playoff bowl revenue, the NCAA tournament credits, the tier 3 rights (particularly for UConn/BYU). Doubling, tripling, quadrupling what we'll get once the exit fee money runs out isn't enough to keep up. For someone who so often rails on the financial shortfall we're facing, it's astonishing that you don't see that.

In your example, another conference has to cut the new team in on that revenue. Which conference is going to do that? If any league wanted the AAC schools, they would have already added the AAC schools. The only reason it has come up with the Big 12 is because of some quirks in the Big 12 TV contract, that will never appear in any conference TV contract ever again. There is no catalyst for additional conference expansion on the horizon. The leagues are the leagues.

The experts are talking about half and quarter shares for the prospective Big 12 additions right now.

 

[BlueMAB]

In your example, another conference has to cut the new team in on that revenue. Which conference is going to do that? If any league wanted the AAC schools, they would have already added the AAC schools. The only reason it has come up with the Big 12 is because of some quirks in the Big 12 TV contract, that will never appear in any conference TV contract ever again. There is no catalyst for additional conference expansion on the horizon. The leagues are the leagues.

The experts are talking about half and quarter shares for the prospective Big 12 additions right now.

A half or quarter share for UConn + tier 3 rights, + NCAA tourney credits + bowl revenue shares >>>>> Whatever the AAC can get us from ESPN.

Not to mention the impact on ticket sales/fan interest.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A half or quarter share for UConn + tier 3 rights, + NCAA tourney credits + bowl revenue shares >>>>> Whatever the AAC can get us from ESPN.

Not to mention the impact on ticket sales/fan interest.

Why hasn't it happened yet if that is such a popular solution?

 

[don356]

Because the old guard schools will have to go to Connecticut.

 

[Excalibur]

A half or quarter share for UConn + tier 3 rights, + NCAA tourney credits + bowl revenue shares >>>>> Whatever the AAC can get us from ESPN.

Not to mention the impact on ticket sales/fan interest.

Selling out the Rent would add $2 Million in revenue right away. The Men would likely sell out their home schedule as well (we're about 2,000 short of that on average over the last few years) -- that's just under another $1 Million.

 

[mavblues]

Just curious:

How do we know that ESPN isn't pushing back because UConn was going to be left out of the 2 / 4 that are being picked?

Maybe they ARE looking out for our best interests (for once). After all, we're one of the few schools that would bring the ratings needed to justify the payout that's required.

Can't say either way, but it seems like everyone is jumping to conclusions here. (Granted, we all know the past history with ESPN, but maybe they also view this as one of the last chances for us and are actually trying to get us picked.)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Just curious:

How do we know that ESPN isn't pushing back because UConn was going to be left out of the 2 / 4 that are being picked?

Maybe they ARE looking out for our best interests (for once). After all, we're one of the few schools that would bring the ratings needed to justify the payout that's required.

Can't say either way, but it seems like everyone is jumping to conclusions here. (Granted, we all know the past history with ESPN, but maybe they also view this as one of the last chances for us and are actually trying to get us picked.)

I have thought about that too. Maybe those Memphis to the big 12 rumors were right, and ESPN hit the brakes. I wonder if we will ever know.

 

[JMick]

I have thought about that too. Maybe those Memphis to the big 12 rumors were right, and ESPN hit the brakes. I wonder if we will ever know.

We'll only know if after the dust settles someone from inside the Big XII is really pissed at the outcome.

 

[CL82]

... or maybe Cinci, UH, Memphis to the Big 12 and UConn to the ACC strips all the value out the AAC so ESPN either ignores it or pays a few hundred thousand per school for it.

... or maybe ESPN wants UConn in the AAC so the rest of their contract with the league has value.

Who the frick knows anymore?

 

[Slasher]

... or maybe Cinci, UH, Memphis to the Big 12 and UConn to the ACC strips all the value out the AAC so ESPN either ignores it or pays a few hundred thousand per school for it.

... or maybe ESPN wants UConn in the ACC so the rest of their contract with the league has value.

Who the frick knows anymore?

That could be correct on two fronts, maybe they know ND is never joining and the ACC wants to grab UConn and Cincy to go to 16 for their network.

 

[amory]

That could be correct on two fronts, maybe they know ND is never joining and the ACC wants to grab UConn and Cincy to go to 16 for their network.

I doubt they're willing to just give up on Notre Dame ever joining. They can literally wait for decades

 

[HoopsFan21]

The P5 are comprised already of similar teams.

Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, Duke, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, West Virginia, Washington St, Oregon State, etc.

The profile of these schools is not different than UConn's. Cincy and BYU could probably make the same argument.

It's annoying hearing fans of other schools come here to tell us that we're not worthy of a P5 conference, and then to proceed to tell us that it's because of football. Well as far as I can tell neither are half the schools in the P5. Of course UConn also offers a better TV market than half of the P5 schools, and a better academic profile than a lot of them, and of course UConn has the best basketball program in the country. The athletic department is generally well run and free of child rape rumors, murder coverups, prostitutes, fake classes, and all the other scandalous baggage that seems to be the hallmark of big time athletics programs in the P5 these days. The reality is if we were starting over today without grandfathered in programs, in other words a level playing field where schools have to actually compete for those precious P5 slots rather than simply collect a check just for being in the conference for 50 years, UConn would not be close to being last picked. Perhaps one day the Ohio States and Alabamas of the P5 will get sick of carrying the dead weight with which they've been saddled and spin off into a separate football powerhouse conference of maybe 20-30 teams.

 

[mavblues]

I just want to go on record as stating that I haven't given up on UConn to B1G. It's the best fit for us...

 

[sportsart]

Just curious:

How do we know that ESPN isn't pushing back because UConn was going to be left out of the 2 / 4 that are being picked?

Maybe they ARE looking out for our best interests (for once). After all, we're one of the few schools that would bring the ratings needed to justify the payout that's required.

Can't say either way, but it seems like everyone is jumping to conclusions here. (Granted, we all know the past history with ESPN, but maybe they also view this as one of the last chances for us and are actually trying to get us picked.)

 

[Exit 4]

It's annoying hearing fans of other schools come here to tell us that we're not worthy of a P5 conference, and then to proceed to tell us that it's because of football. Well as far as I can tell neither are half the schools in the P5. Of course UConn also offers a better TV market than half of the P5 schools, and a better academic profile than a lot of them, and of course UConn has the best basketball program in the country. The athletic department is generally well run and free of child rape rumors, murder coverups, prostitutes, fake classes, and all the other scandalous baggage that seems to be the hallmark of big time athletics programs in the P5 these days. The reality is if we were starting over today without grandfathered in programs, in other words a level playing field where schools have to actually compete for those precious P5 slots rather than simply collect a check just for being in the conference for 50 years, UConn would not be close to being last picked. Perhaps one day the Ohio States and Alabamas of the P5 will get sick of carrying the dead weight with which they've been saddled and spin off into a separate football powerhouse conference of maybe 20-30 teams.

The short list of not worthy:
Tier 1 offenders:
-Northwestern
-Wake

Tier 2:
-Rutty
-Vandy
-Purdue
-many of our small friends in the B12