BC Post Game Thread | Page 9 | The Boneyard

BC Post Game Thread

Do they spend as much time on other college teams as they do on UConn? Seems like there's something every other day on UConn.
There is a lot of Uconn stuff, for whatever reason. It's usually the only reason I go there, will turn it on in the background as I'm working. I like most of the guys there as well outside of Deion, who legitimately has no idea what he's talking about.
 
- Koroma and Milledner looked like serviceable emergency options at center and point guard respectively.

- Ball took it to the rim successfully three times I think. That was encouraging to see.

- Our point guard play is going to be signficantly upgraded this season and I feel comfortable saying that without Demary even playing.

- Ross did have a nice stint in the second half but I thought he and Stewart looked like largely the same players unfortunatley.

- Reibe needs to play a little stronger going to the basket but looks like he can contribute. Reed would have feasted inside tonight.

- Generated so many open looks but the shooting was cold. As others have stated, I would like to see them switch gears and drive or dump it inside when the threes aren't falling.

- Generally took good care of the ball. I'm going to estimate that we had fewer than 10 turnovers.

- Its obviously very early, but the fouling looked like last year. How many foul shots did Hand Jr have?
I can't wait to see Malachi feeding a posting-up Reed. Only six turnovers is incredible for your first game of the season. Hand is going to be all-ACC and a big transfer target going into his senior year if he actually wants to win some games.
 
Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.
 
Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.

There are going to be guys that push him around a bit. The hope is that he can also make those guys chase him all over the floor.
 
I didn't see this posted although I may have missed it. Post game presser with Karaban, Ball and Smith. Only about 4 minutes.

 
Regarding the shooting, yes we missed a lot of open looks, but many of them were on possessions where the ball never touched the paint, either through dribble penetration or an entry pass. We we jacking up the first open look we had. After the really bad stretch at the beginning of the second half, we got more dribble penetration and better shots (and shooting) from the perimeter.

Demary, Smith, and Mullins are all very capable of taking their man off the dribble. If healthy, Karaban can get into the paint off of a shot fake, and Ball can do the same. We need to make sure that element stays in our offense. Dribble penetration disrupts the defense and leads to better looks.
Agreed. In a vacuum, they were good shots. But they were too early in the shot clock and not in the rhythm of the offense. Shots that come later in the possession, in rhythm seem to go down at a much higher rate.
 
.-.
If you recruited/developed players that have an expectation to shoot 40%+ on clean-look/in-flow 3's...when they get one, they HAVE to take it. It's as simple as that. Expectation on that shot long-term is 1.2 pts.

Deliberately passing that look up because "we take too many 3's", to only potentially get a 2pt look later on in the shot clock with perhaps 60% make probability ends up only netting you the same 1.2pt expectation. At best.

I generally disagree with blind adherence to deep-dive subtle analytics, but the above is about as basic kindergarten game theory logic as it gets.
Key here is "in-flow". Many of the missed shots weren't.
 
Reibe looked like a big man with skills. Good spacing, good footwork. He didn't look just like a big man out there. He looked just as good as early Donovan.

I am not saying that they will be as good but there is potential of the Reed+Reibe like 23 Adama+Donovan.

Actually this whole team feels very 23 like, I see Mullins being very like Hawkins as well.
Just as good as early Donovan? You mean the Donovan that was MVP of the PK 80 about 3 games into his freshman season?
 
Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.
Looking ahead, here’s some of the non-conference lineups we can see at the 2/3 spots in big games.

BYU

Kennard Davis Jr. 6’6 215
Richie Saunders 6’5 200
Possibly AJ Dybantsa 6’9 210

Arizona

Brayden Burris 6’4 205
Anthony Dell’Orso 6’6 205
Bench Dwayne Aristode 6’8 220 (CBS lists him as a G/F)

Illinois

Kylan Boswell (6’2 205)
Andrej Stojakovic (6’7 205)

Florida

Boogie Fland (6’3 180)
Thomas Haugh (6’9 215)

Kansas

Darryn Patterson (6’5 195)
Jayden Dawson (6’4 195)

Texas

Chendall Weaver (6’3 180)
Tramon Mark (6’5 210)

The first 4 teams offer a lot of size to test the perimeter defense of Solo and Mullins. Kansas and Texas are relatively even after that it seems.
 
Interesting topic for which there are definitely some stats nerds analytics about. Went down the rabbit hole during lunch. Most of the data are from the NBA camera analytics that chart ball and player locations dozens of times a second during every play. Allows for spatial analysis of shooting, rebound, player locations relative to the ball, height of the ball, etc. Wild stuff.

--First interesting observation:

The average distance of rebounds doesn't really change too much for 3pt vs 2pt attempts. But there is a bit more variance for 3pt vs. 2pt. (Do Longer Shot Attempts Mean Longer Rebounds? | Northwestern Sports Analytics Group)

A hand-calculated analysis with some neat graphics suggests slightly higher % of "long rebounds" for 3pt shots. However, note the distance breakdowns are not really "long" versus "short", in my opinion. They define ranges as 0-3', 4-6', 7-21'. That last range is pretty wide, and is considered a "long" rebound. I'd argue that 7-10' is not really a "long" rebound and is much different than 15-21%, but the authors don't go that granular with the data, unfortunately (Nylon Calculus: More lessons from NBA rebound tracking).

Be that as it may, here's the breakdown of average rebound length:
View attachment 112333
We're only really talking about 1.5-2' longer rebounds for 3's, on average.

--Second interesting observation:

The data set you use (NBA season year, specific groups of teams, etc.) and study methodology can result in significantly different conclusions about OReb% based on shot type, shot distance, etc. Need context, data details, and can't over-generalize!

For example:
OReb% was found to be highest for <8ft shots and 3pt shots vs. shots in the 12-20ft range by these nerds (from data from before 2012 season):


With a neat graphic:
View attachment 112331

However, the OReb% was found to be similar for all missed shots >15ft, was highest for <10ft" from a 2015-16 NBA dataset- nba: how does the rise of the 3-pointer impact offensive rebounding strategy? · steven liao




To gameplan best for 3pt shooting, the team should either just (1) not do traditional "crashing" of the glass on 3pt shots, having perimeter players retreat back on D, or, (2) "soft crash" to 8-15ish ft range range, adjusting based on 3pt shot location (key, elbow, corner)
Do they break down percentages of offensive rebounds by shooter vs. non-shooter? I imagine a player getting his own rebound accounts for the majority of close range O boards.
 
.-.
Show me where that's broken down based on 2 vs. 3 point shots, which was his point, not offensive rebounding overall
Maybe I misunderstood, but the point as I understood it was we take too many 3's and as a result are a poor offensive rebounding team. That is objectively false
 
I agree but that’s not what we did yesterday. Seemed like a lot of our 3s came off passes from the perimeter or pick and rolls where we pulled it.

Not a lot of penetrating to create those.
Especially early in the second half. A lot of quick, pull-up threes.
The biggest weakness last year has been addressed. Silas and Malachi will take care of the penetrating guards, and they will create defensive havoc. Reibe was, if I am being honest, better than I expected at this early juncture. The kid clearly has game. I know that we still have the Florida game fresh in our minds. And further, this game seemed like a continuation of that 3 point futility. However, context is important: in a night where nobody was making 3's, missing our starting center and PG, we still beat an ACC team by double figures. And we would have beat them by 30 if we shot slightly better from 3, even while missing 2 key pieces of our team. Let that marinate for a bit. That is a big deal. Other random observations from yours truly:
Indeed. Despite BC being BAD last year, KenPom has them around the same preseason efficiency as Georgetown and Seton Hall, predicting we win at home by 15 and on the road by 10. Missing two starters and winning by 19, while shooting poorly ? I'll take it.
 
Maybe I misunderstood, but the point as I understood it was we take too many 3's and as a result are a poor offensive rebounding team. That is objectively false
Nope. Pretty sure he meant as a good offensive rebounding team, you'd think we'd get a lot of them off threes, but we don't. That's what I saw as well
 
Agree 100%. We need to attack and pound first and then when we work out the jitters and get in rhythm can start taking 3s. It's too variable to rely on.
Yea that sounds like a recipe for basketball success.

Maybe even give the opposing team pregame notice you won’t be shooting any 3’s until you “work out the jitters”. I’m sure it’ll all work out fine.
 
Agree 100%. We need to attack and pound first and then when we work out the jitters and get in rhythm can start taking 3s. It's too variable to rely on.
What, you mean like a game against Florida where we generally out played them in every facet of the game but went 8-29 from 3 and lost?

Teams that jack a ton of threes for a living end up being soft. There is no imposition of will.
 
Do they break down percentages of offensive rebounds by shooter vs. non-shooter? I imagine a player getting his own rebound accounts for the majority of close range O boards.
My understanding is that I think you can get that level of granularity from the raw data downloads. You’d have to put it Excel and start doing some filtering, etc. But none of the articles I read broke it down by which position player got the reb
 
.-.
My understanding is that I think you can get that level of granularity from the raw data downloads. You’d have to put it Excel and start doing some filtering, etc. But none of the articles I read broke it down by which position player got the reb
Where can you download the raw data?
 
Do they break down percentages of offensive rebounds by shooter vs. non-shooter? I imagine a player getting his own rebound accounts for the majority of close range O boards.

Weak side rebounds from the helping defender's man are the real problem.
 
Just as good as early Donovan? You mean the Donovan that was MVP of the PK 80 about 3 games into his freshman season?

Actually, Reibe reminded me of Donovan's early games.

If you remember, early in Donovan's freshman season he didn't dunk very often. The BY was very aware of DC going a little soft to the rim in those early games.
 
Where can you download the raw data?
I think it may be free or nominal cost.

Apparently, SportVU did it until 2017. Then NBA switched contract to Second Spectrum. The websites are here, can't check them out in detail now, but happy browsing...there's also a ton of downloadable data right off the NBA stats website:

 
Last edited:
The basketball Hall of Fame game was played 100 miles from the basketball Hall of Fame? What am I missing?

I was wondering the same thing, but also can’t think of any arena or place in Springfield for an event like this. Not sure if one exists (or if there is one at MGM). HuskyHawk’s link seems to give the best explanation- a partnership
 
.-.
I think it may be free or nominal cost.

Apparently, SportVU did it until 2017. Then NBA switched contract to Second Spectrum. The websites are here, can't check them out in detail now, but happy browsing...there's also a ton of downloadable data right off the NBA stats website:

Thank you!!
 
The healthy 9 are:

Demary/Ball/Mullins/Karaban/Reed

Smith/Ross/Stew/Reibe

Furphy might get some minutes in wide margin situations, nobody else is touching the floor in competitive games.
Yeah but Koroma will see time as well. Depending on matchups and foul trouble the minutes will vary but he will be a piece. He can handle and pass, defend on the post as well.
 
I suspect there may be growing pains with Reibe (as expected with pretty much any freshman, especially a freshman big) and Koroma will get run. He’s undersized but athletic and seems to have good hedging/switchability. Also, we kinda know that Tarris and Reibe will likely be in foul trouble somewhat often.
He's a good rebounder as well
 
.-.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,178
Messages
4,555,875
Members
10,441
Latest member
Virginiafan


Top Bottom