BC Post Game Thread

[Excalibur]

I agree but that’s not what we did yesterday. Seemed like a lot of our 3s came off passes from the perimeter or pick and rolls where we pulled it.

Not a lot of penetrating to create those.

Agree entirely. And several of our (relatively few) makes did come off of penetration, further supporting the point.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Long rebounds tend to ignite fast breaks the other way. Offenses tend to rebound misses from close in more often due to defenders helping and getting out of rebounding position.

It 100% aligns with analytics.

Rebounding 2’s vs. 3’s | The kenpom.com blog

Interesting topic for which there are definitely some stats nerds analytics about. Went down the rabbit hole during lunch. Most of the data are from the NBA camera analytics that chart ball and player locations dozens of times a second during every play. Allows for spatial analysis of shooting, rebound, player locations relative to the ball, height of the ball, etc. Wild stuff.

--First interesting observation:

The average distance of rebounds doesn't really change too much for 3pt vs 2pt attempts. But there is a bit more variance for 3pt vs. 2pt. (Do Longer Shot Attempts Mean Longer Rebounds? | Northwestern Sports Analytics Group)

A hand-calculated analysis with some neat graphics suggests slightly higher % of "long rebounds" for 3pt shots. However, note the distance breakdowns are not really "long" versus "short", in my opinion. They define ranges as 0-3', 4-6', 7-21'. That last range is pretty wide, and is considered a "long" rebound. I'd argue that 7-10' is not really a "long" rebound and is much different than 15-21%, but the authors don't go that granular with the data, unfortunately (Nylon Calculus: More lessons from NBA rebound tracking).

Be that as it may, here's the breakdown of average rebound length:

We're only really talking about 1.5-2' longer rebounds for 3's, on average.

--Second interesting observation:

The data set you use (NBA season year, specific groups of teams, etc.) and study methodology can result in significantly different conclusions about OReb% based on shot type, shot distance, etc. Need context, data details, and can't over-generalize!

For example:
OReb% was found to be highest for <8ft shots and 3pt shots vs. shots in the 12-20ft range by these nerds (from data from before 2012 season):

https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5f1af76ed86d6771ad48324b/65552fd252afa3f16d52bc1a_SSAC12%20-%20108-sloan-sports-2012-maheswaran-chang_updated.pdf

Shot Selection and Offensive Rebounding, Morikawa, Booker, Castellanos, and UFC 264

Optimal Shot Selection and Offensive Rebounding

findingtheedge.substack.com

With a neat graphic:

However, the OReb% was found to be similar for all missed shots >15ft, was highest for <10ft" from a 2015-16 NBA dataset- nba: how does the rise of the 3-pointer impact offensive rebounding strategy? · steven liao




To gameplan best for 3pt shooting, the team should either just (1) not do traditional "crashing" of the glass on 3pt shots, having perimeter players retreat back on D, or, (2) "soft crash" to 8-15ish ft range range, adjusting based on 3pt shot location (key, elbow, corner)

 

[HW611]

Would not be shocked to see Silas & Smith out there together a LOT.

Smith is the best pure PG on the team so this was expected. We’ll see plenty of Silas playing the 2 which may be helpful in his own scoring and not having the pressure of creating and scoring.

Just wonder if that means we see more of Solo at the 3 (which oof defensively) or what.

My preferred lineup would look like this.

Silas (15)/Smith (25)
Solo (20)/ Silas (10) Mullins (10)
Ross (20)/ Mullins (10)/ Solo (5)/Stew(5)
AK (25-30)/ Stew (10-15)
Reed (30) Reibe (10)

I know Ross starting sounds crazy. But I just really prefer defense to start a game and bringing in the better scorer off the bench if Mullins defense isn’t up to snuff. Especially since our starting lineup is full of scorers so it’s not something that’s needed.

We have enough depth and talent to where nobody should get consistent minutes if they aren’t playing well and we should go with whoever the hot hand is in whatever games. Outside of Reed and maybe AK because AK just has that seniority and right currently with Hurley.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

We do this incredibly well under Dan Hurley

View attachment 112329

To be fair, that's just total OR%,...not OR% by shot length/rebound length (which is what RuffRuff was hypothesizing about).

We've been consistently elite for overall OR%...so I'd surmise that we also do pretty well for "long rebounds" as well.

I'm not sure those data exist for NCAA CBB outside of hardcore analytics nerds on individual teams or nerd superfans of teams.

For NBA, data is freely available from their SportVU optical game tracking database.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I will never be a believer in the 3s > 2s offensive philosophy as there’s so much context that these numbers don’t calculate.

Basketball is best played inside out. The 3s aren’t going anywhere, would like to see more intentionally attacking the rim or spots on the court.

That problem will naturally fix itself with Silas and Reed back though.

I also have to believe that Malachi can attack the rim better than he showed last night. He had a couple of blow-by's that made his defender look silly. Given scrimmage=glorified practice,, I have to think he was holding back to have the offense work on sets.

 

[auror]

Smith is the best pure PG on the team so this was expected. We’ll see plenty of Silas playing the 2 which may be helpful in his own scoring and not having the pressure of creating and scoring.

Just wonder if that means we see more of Solo at the 3 (which oof defensively) or what.

My preferred lineup would look like this.

Silas (15)/Smith (25)
Solo (20)/ Silas (10) Mullins (10)
Ross (20)/ Mullins (10)/ Solo (5)/Stew(5)
AK (25-30)/ Stew (10-15)
Reed (30) Reibe (10)

I know Ross starting sounds crazy. But I just really prefer defense to start a game and bringing in the better scorer off the bench if Mullins defense isn’t up to snuff. Especially since our starting lineup is full of scorers so it’s not something that’s needed.

We have enough depth and talent to where nobody should get consistent minutes if they aren’t playing well and we should go with whoever the hot hand is in whatever games. Outside of Reed and maybe AK because AK just has that seniority and right currently with Hurley.

Demary would guard the "3" in that configuration, but it still presents the same smaller PG + Ball quandry that hampered our defense last year. I'd expect it to be a bit more matchup based.

 

[bendm]

Starting to sound like we're going to have 7 guys getting starter level minutes, with whichever 2 of Smith, Mullins, Stewart are coming off the bench

Demary 15 / Smith 25
Ball 25 / Demary 15
Mullins 25 / Ball 5 / Stew 5 / Ross 5
Karaban 30 / Stew 10
Reed 30 / Reibe 10

30: Demary / Ball / Karaban / Reed
25: Smith / Mullins
15: Stew
10: Reibe
5: Ross

Whoever gets more PT between Ross and Stew could come down to game by game situations. Don’t think one necessarily will carve out a bigger role as the season progresses.

 

[HW611]

Demary would guard the "3" in that configuration, but it still presents the same smaller PG + Ball quandry that hampered our defense last year. I'd expect it to be a bit more matchup based.

This is true. I can also see us using a lineup like that against Georgetown who will probably play a lot of Mack, Love, and Lewis on the perimeter. Any team that plays 3 guards for the most part we’ll have an answer.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

Hurley said post-game Reed was originally out 2 weeks, came back to practice, then reaggravated the injury. Out of the Michigan State game. Could play in the opener.

I’d sit Reed out for the opener against University of New Haven and also against UMass -Lowell.

That would give him another week of recovery.

Play him in game three against Columbia University to get him live action before the BYU game five days later.

 

[Drame]

I will never be a believer in the 3s > 2s offensive philosophy as there’s so much context that these numbers don’t calculate.

Basketball is best played inside out. The 3s aren’t going anywhere, would like to see more intentionally attacking the rim or spots on the court.

That problem will naturally fix itself with Silas and Reed back though.

Agree 100%. We need to attack and pound first and then when we work out the jitters and get in rhythm can start taking 3s. It's too variable to rely on.

 

[Iluvsuebird]

The biggest weakness last year has been addressed. Silas and Malachi will take care of the penetrating guards, and they will create defensive havoc. Reibe was, if I am being honest, better than I expected at this early juncture. The kid clearly has game. I know that we still have the Florida game fresh in our minds. And further, this game seemed like a continuation of that 3 point futility. However, context is important: in a night where nobody was making 3's, missing our starting center and PG, we still beat an ACC team by double figures. And we would have beat them by 30 if we shot slightly better from 3, even while missing 2 key pieces of our team. Let that marinate for a bit. That is a big deal. Other random observations from yours truly:

• Stewart is not going to play as much as we all though if he did not improve his on the ball defense. The kid can guard bigger forwards (see Hopkins), but he is a statute against guards.
• Malachi will be a fan favorite by December. Loved that kid's tenacity. Not to be disrespectful because he just joined us, but he is a better version of Diarra, and Diarra was phenomal (BE six man of the year, two nattys, etc.).
• Loved Korona. Grabbed 2 or 3 contested offensive boards in the first half, a couple of nice passes. Kid is productive.
• If you are an opponent, you better pray for a night like last night if you play us. Because how do you guard against a lineup where 4 of 5 players can shoot the 3? How in the heck do you defend our sets when you have Solo on one end and Mullins on the other? I think Alex is going to have an obscene amount of open 3's this year.
• And further, while we shot the ball putridly last night, and I think Coach spoke about this, we didn't have our Bear in the middle to stop bleedings.
• Of all the things I saw last night, what I loved the most was Ross being the go to defensive stopper. The kid will play if he can be that guy on the defensive end. Impressive.
• So if we start Bear, Alex, Mullins, Solo and Silas, we will have Reibe, Malachi, Stewart and Ross as the next rotation guys. This is an impressive 9 man rotation with no obvious weakness. And as we saw, Korona brings grind to the floor. But 9 for sure contributors is what we have in '23 with Adama, Clingan, Alex, Newton, Hawk, Alex, Diarra, Alleyne and Joey.

 

[navery12]

Demary 15 / Smith 25
Ball 25 / Demary 15
Mullins 25 / Ross 10 / Ball 5
Karaban 30 / Stew 10
Reed 30 / Reibe 10

30: Demary / Ball / Karaban / Reed
25: Smith / Mullins
10: Ross / Stew / Reibe

Whoever gets more PT between Ross and Stew could come down to game by game situations. Don’t think one necessarily will carve out a bigger role as the season progresses.

I'll give you this, you love your minute predictions

 

[RuffRuff]

I'll give you this, you love your minute predictions

Guy needs a tag line "I'll give you minutes".

These dudes breaking it down. Their concern is how does the AK/Mullins/Solo trio not be "soft" defensively.

 

[HooperScooper]

Guy needs a tag line "I'll give you minutes".

These dudes breaking it down. Their concern is how does the AK/Mullins/Solo trio not be "soft" defensively.

Do they spend as much time on other college teams as they do on UConn? Seems like there's something every other day on UConn.

 

[Excalibur]

However, the OReb% was found to be similar for all missed shots >15ft, was highest for <10ft"

I think this is the key piece of information. OReb% increases for shots close to the basket. This just defines what "close to the basket means".

Which makes sense -- 10 feet is where you would expect most shots to be challenged by a help defender.

 

[RuffRuff]

Do they spend as much time on other college teams as they do on UConn? Seems like there's something every other day on UConn.

There is a lot of Uconn stuff, for whatever reason. It's usually the only reason I go there, will turn it on in the background as I'm working. I like most of the guys there as well outside of Deion, who legitimately has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[Samoo]

- Koroma and Milledner looked like serviceable emergency options at center and point guard respectively.

- Ball took it to the rim successfully three times I think. That was encouraging to see.

- Our point guard play is going to be signficantly upgraded this season and I feel comfortable saying that without Demary even playing.

- Ross did have a nice stint in the second half but I thought he and Stewart looked like largely the same players unfortunatley.

- Reibe needs to play a little stronger going to the basket but looks like he can contribute. Reed would have feasted inside tonight.

- Generated so many open looks but the shooting was cold. As others have stated, I would like to see them switch gears and drive or dump it inside when the threes aren't falling.

- Generally took good care of the ball. I'm going to estimate that we had fewer than 10 turnovers.

- Its obviously very early, but the fouling looked like last year. How many foul shots did Hand Jr have?

I can't wait to see Malachi feeding a posting-up Reed. Only six turnovers is incredible for your first game of the season. Hand is going to be all-ACC and a big transfer target going into his senior year if he actually wants to win some games.

 

[Gurleyman]

Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.

 

[Excalibur]

Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.

There are going to be guys that push him around a bit. The hope is that he can also make those guys chase him all over the floor.

 

[HooperScooper]

I didn't see this posted although I may have missed it. Post game presser with Karaban, Ball and Smith. Only about 4 minutes.

 

[DRBackup]

Regarding the shooting, yes we missed a lot of open looks, but many of them were on possessions where the ball never touched the paint, either through dribble penetration or an entry pass. We we jacking up the first open look we had. After the really bad stretch at the beginning of the second half, we got more dribble penetration and better shots (and shooting) from the perimeter.

Demary, Smith, and Mullins are all very capable of taking their man off the dribble. If healthy, Karaban can get into the paint off of a shot fake, and Ball can do the same. We need to make sure that element stays in our offense. Dribble penetration disrupts the defense and leads to better looks.

Agreed. In a vacuum, they were good shots. But they were too early in the shot clock and not in the rhythm of the offense. Shots that come later in the possession, in rhythm seem to go down at a much higher rate.

 

[DRBackup]

If you recruited/developed players that have an expectation to shoot 40%+ on clean-look/in-flow 3's...when they get one, they HAVE to take it. It's as simple as that. Expectation on that shot long-term is 1.2 pts.

Deliberately passing that look up because "we take too many 3's", to only potentially get a 2pt look later on in the shot clock with perhaps 60% make probability ends up only netting you the same 1.2pt expectation. At best.

I generally disagree with blind adherence to deep-dive subtle analytics, but the above is about as basic kindergarten game theory logic as it gets.

Key here is "in-flow". Many of the missed shots weren't.

 

[ucp990411]

Reibe looked like a big man with skills. Good spacing, good footwork. He didn't look just like a big man out there. He looked just as good as early Donovan.

I am not saying that they will be as good but there is potential of the Reed+Reibe like 23 Adama+Donovan.

Actually this whole team feels very 23 like, I see Mullins being very like Hawkins as well.

Just as good as early Donovan? You mean the Donovan that was MVP of the PK 80 about 3 games into his freshman season?

 

[HW611]

Small sample size, but I don't really have any concerns yet about Mullins on defense. He competes on that end. Yesterday he made easily correctable mistakes on his fouls - fouling a three-point shooter twice and getting a little too handsy twice. But the second time he got too handsy, he was holding his ground in the paint and not backing down. Perhaps a super physical wing could give him some problems, but we can deal with that by either changing our matchups or playing Stewart/Ross more on those days.

Looking ahead, here’s some of the non-conference lineups we can see at the 2/3 spots in big games.

BYU

Kennard Davis Jr. 6’6 215
Richie Saunders 6’5 200
Possibly AJ Dybantsa 6’9 210

Arizona

Brayden Burris 6’4 205
Anthony Dell’Orso 6’6 205
Bench Dwayne Aristode 6’8 220 (CBS lists him as a G/F)

Illinois

Kylan Boswell (6’2 205)
Andrej Stojakovic (6’7 205)

Florida

Boogie Fland (6’3 180)
Thomas Haugh (6’9 215)

Kansas

Darryn Patterson (6’5 195)
Jayden Dawson (6’4 195)

Texas

Chendall Weaver (6’3 180)
Tramon Mark (6’5 210)

The first 4 teams offer a lot of size to test the perimeter defense of Solo and Mullins. Kansas and Texas are relatively even after that it seems.

 

[thekollieman]

Interesting topic for which there are definitely some stats nerds analytics about. Went down the rabbit hole during lunch. Most of the data are from the NBA camera analytics that chart ball and player locations dozens of times a second during every play. Allows for spatial analysis of shooting, rebound, player locations relative to the ball, height of the ball, etc. Wild stuff.

--First interesting observation:

The average distance of rebounds doesn't really change too much for 3pt vs 2pt attempts. But there is a bit more variance for 3pt vs. 2pt. (Do Longer Shot Attempts Mean Longer Rebounds? | Northwestern Sports Analytics Group)

A hand-calculated analysis with some neat graphics suggests slightly higher % of "long rebounds" for 3pt shots. However, note the distance breakdowns are not really "long" versus "short", in my opinion. They define ranges as 0-3', 4-6', 7-21'. That last range is pretty wide, and is considered a "long" rebound. I'd argue that 7-10' is not really a "long" rebound and is much different than 15-21%, but the authors don't go that granular with the data, unfortunately (Nylon Calculus: More lessons from NBA rebound tracking).

Be that as it may, here's the breakdown of average rebound length:
View attachment 112333
We're only really talking about 1.5-2' longer rebounds for 3's, on average.

--Second interesting observation:

The data set you use (NBA season year, specific groups of teams, etc.) and study methodology can result in significantly different conclusions about OReb% based on shot type, shot distance, etc. Need context, data details, and can't over-generalize!

For example:
OReb% was found to be highest for <8ft shots and 3pt shots vs. shots in the 12-20ft range by these nerds (from data from before 2012 season):

https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5f1af76ed86d6771ad48324b/65552fd252afa3f16d52bc1a_SSAC12%20-%20108-sloan-sports-2012-maheswaran-chang_updated.pdf

Shot Selection and Offensive Rebounding, Morikawa, Booker, Castellanos, and UFC 264

Optimal Shot Selection and Offensive Rebounding

findingtheedge.substack.com

With a neat graphic:
View attachment 112331

However, the OReb% was found to be similar for all missed shots >15ft, was highest for <10ft" from a 2015-16 NBA dataset- nba: how does the rise of the 3-pointer impact offensive rebounding strategy? · steven liao




To gameplan best for 3pt shooting, the team should either just (1) not do traditional "crashing" of the glass on 3pt shots, having perimeter players retreat back on D, or, (2) "soft crash" to 8-15ish ft range range, adjusting based on 3pt shot location (key, elbow, corner)

Do they break down percentages of offensive rebounds by shooter vs. non-shooter? I imagine a player getting his own rebound accounts for the majority of close range O boards.