B12 and ACC on the clock! | Page 7 | The Boneyard

B12 and ACC on the clock!

The ACC experience with BC and Cuse may be a chiller for further northeast expansion.

Neither are football media draws. They get lumped in with Wake which is a better program ( has had four 8 win or more seasons in the last six while Cuse and BC have had no 8 win seasons in the last ten).

FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami have all been public with the need for the ACC to bolster revenue payout for programs to remain competitive. If an add does not move the payout revenue significantly, there will be be a slew of no votes.

Right now, according to the Tallahassee paper, the 14 member football room is split about 50-50 on unequal revenue sharing.....and the methodology of determining how you "earn" an increased share would be fought over and most difficult to get a vote on (football viewing, basketball, all sports, heck...the Tobacco Road crew could insist academic ratings as well).
 
Disney is in major cost cutting mode at ESPN. They aren't going to pay to add anyone to The ACC unless it's as a partner to a full member Notre Dame. If that were to happen, UConn would be an easily attainable #16. Its unlikely that ESPN would act on UConn based on the idea that they could lose them to The Big 12. They can't make money on a solo UConn addition.

If I were in AD Dave's Position, I would be aggressively courting The Big 12 behind the scenes. At least Yormack gives off the appearance of wanting to continue expansion. Whether the money will be there for it is TBD. Unlike The ACC however, The Big 12 media deal is spread over more than one company so the dynamic may be different than being ESPN only like The ACC.

Everyone knows that both The ACC and Pac 12 have expiration dates. Eventually the GOR will near its end in The ACC and The SEC and B1G will act. The ACC will be dissected, with potentially a few remaining PAC Teams being grabbed by The B1G to round out their final numbers. The Big 12 will likely remain untouched as their programs are either undesirable or redundant to the P2's Plans. There is safety in this if you are a school like UConn. It's much better to already be on the life raft when the boat sinks then being in the water with everyone else trying to beg your way on board.
 
Ldandy said:
Disney is in major cost cutting mode at ESPN. They aren't going to pay to add anyone to The ACC unless it's as a partner to a full member Notre Dame. If that were to happen, UConn would be an easily attainable #16. Its unlikely that ESPN would act on UConn based on the idea that they could lose them to The Big 12. They can't make money on a solo UConn addition.

If I were in AD Dave's Position, I would be aggressively courting The Big 12 behind the scenes. At least Yormack gives off the appearance of wanting to continue expansion. Whether the money will be there for it is TBD. Unlike The ACC however, The Big 12 media deal is spread over more than one company so the dynamic may be different than being ESPN only like The ACC.

Everyone knows that both The ACC and Pac 12 have expiration dates. Eventually the GOR will near its end in The ACC and The SEC and B1G will act. The ACC will be dissected, with potentially a few remaining PAC Teams being grabbed by The B1G to round out their final numbers. The Big 12 will likely remain untouched as their programs are either undesirable or redundant to the P2's Plans. There is safety in this if you are a school like UConn. It's much better to already be on the life raft when the boat sinks then being in the water with everyone else trying to beg your way on board.
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College sports will not survive as a major entertainment product if the western half of the country is no longer included. The networks would be better off running Matlock reruns that spending hundreds of millions on a product that is regional in appeal. One way or another, the western half of the country, beyond just Los Angeles, is going to be part of whatever happens next.

Apple TV signing the Pac 12 could be a game changer for all of sports. USC and UCLA would have to think long and hard about leaving if that happened. Do they really want to be playing on a cable channel, or be connected with the most powerful technology company in the world? Where will cable be in 10 years? Where will Apple be?

I know some of the boomers on this board would say stay on cable, and they would be wrong.
 
Streaming is the future, but for the PAC, the future is next year.....folks still tune in linear channels on Saturday.

Going to total streaming ahead of the general market will result in loss of national viewing and brand awareness. You'll be available on a Apple TV shelf, but a smaller portion of folks will have access.

Apple has money but I'll bet that they don't offer a big piece of pie on a start up. More, here's a smaller slice, and we'll see where this goes in the future. The Pac will lose more schools, bet on it.
 
billybud said:
Streaming is the future, but for the PAC, the future is next year.....folks still tune in linear channels on Saturday.

Going to total streaming ahead of the general market will result in loss of national viewing and brand awareness. You'll be available on a Apple TV shelf, but a smaller portion of folks will have access.

Apple has money but I'll bet that they don't offer a big piece of pie on a start up. More, here's a smaller slice, and we'll see where this goes in the future. The Pac will lose more schools, bet on it.
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Do you have cable? I don't, and I believe I am the last person in even my extended family to cut the cord. Cable is losing about 5 million subscribers per year. Sure, let's bet on that platform.
 
YoutubeTV, Fubo, Sling are basically traditional cable without the coaxial cord. Apple TV is not competing with cable as much as they are with other streaming options and there are a shitton.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
Do you have cable? I don't, and I believe I am the last person in even my extended family to cut the cord. Cable is losing about 5 million subscribers per year. Sure, let's bet on that platform.
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Sure....I have cable internet and DTV...and I stream...a lot. Early adopter. I don't mind that my TV bill is north of $230.

The immediate future is that the cable prime time slots will be filled with B1G and SEC matches...and both ESPN and Fox games of the week. SEC's game of the week will always be on ABC, according to ESPN. Other conferences will have peripheral times in the shadows of the P2.

Will folks tune in...the networks are betting on it...gazillions.

There will be a market for second tier games (non P2 ) on streaming devices...So far, that streaming market for football is not a world beater. I do stream the ESPN umbrella networks, ACCN, the BTN, etc. I guess I do spend more than I quoted when you count my Netflix, Prime, Acorn, PBS Masterpiece Theatre, and Brit Box subscriptions.

Prime time Saturdays, I'll watch linear channels...playoffs will be linear for me.
 
Interesting watching all the predictions about conference realignment. My question- will it really matter what conference your favorite team is in? All that will matter is -how much is the school is receiving and what platform you can watch up your favorite team. As a BiG Ten alum and parent of BiG Ten students- I could care less if UCLA or Florida State is in the conference or not. The conferences have been so diluted and athletic rivalries are diminished. I love UConn Basketball and I know they will be successful- but watching them play Texas Tech or Iowa State just is not the same as playing Nova, Syracuse or Georgetown
 
Ldandy said:
Disney is in major cost cutting mode at ESPN. They aren't going to pay to add anyone to The ACC unless it's as a partner to a full member Notre Dame. If that were to happen, UConn would be an easily attainable #16. Its unlikely that ESPN would act on UConn based on the idea that they could lose them to The Big 12. They can't make money on a solo UConn addition.

If I were in AD Dave's Position, I would be aggressively courting The Big 12 behind the scenes. At least Yormack gives off the appearance of wanting to continue expansion. Whether the money will be there for it is TBD. Unlike The ACC however, The Big 12 media deal is spread over more than one company so the dynamic may be different than being ESPN only like The ACC.

Everyone knows that both The ACC and Pac 12 have expiration dates. Eventually the GOR will near its end in The ACC and The SEC and B1G will act. The ACC will be dissected, with potentially a few remaining PAC Teams being grabbed by The B1G to round out their final numbers. The Big 12 will likely remain untouched as their programs are either undesirable or redundant to the P2's Plans. There is safety in this if you are a school like UConn. It's much better to already be on the life raft when the boat sinks then being in the water with everyone else trying to beg your way on board.
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This is a good summary of what's going on right now. UCONN should angle for a B12 invite as soon as possible. ACC is done. Once the GOR is up, that conference will be ripped apart asap. What is happening to the PAC-12 right now is just a preview what will happen to the ACC.

For UCONN, we don't want to be left with ACC leftovers after the carnage. I hope AD Dave is talking to Yormack right now to see if there is room for UCONN.
 
Assuming the worst case is:
B1G: Virginia, ND, UNC, GT
SEC: Clemson, NC State, FSU, Miami

ACC Leftovers would be: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Louisville, Wake, VT

If the B1G doesn't call us, why wouldn't we want to be left with this group? Add in UConn, Temple, Memphis, USF, SMU and you have a decent all around conference that UConn can be competitive in right away. Possibly even better if SEC/B1G leave one or two additional schools like GT or Miami. Of course you don't turn down the Big 12 if they call first.
 
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XStorrsion said:
Assuming the worst case is:
B1G: Virginia, ND, UNC, GT
SEC: Clemson, NC State, FSU, Miami

ACC Leftovers would be: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Louisville, Wake, VT

If the B1G doesn't call us, why wouldn't we want to be left with this group? Add in UConn, Temple, Memphis, USF, SMU and you have a decent all around conference that UConn can be competitive in right away. Possibly even better if SEC/B1G leave one or two additional schools like GT or Miami. Of course you don't turn down the Big 12 if they call first.
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American 2.0.
 
XStorrsion said:
Assuming the worst case is:
B1G: Virginia, ND, UNC, GT
SEC: Clemson, NC State, FSU, Miami

ACC Leftovers would be: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Louisville, Wake, VT

If the B1G doesn't call us, why wouldn't we want to be left with this group? Add in UConn, Temple, Memphis, USF, SMU and you have a decent all around conference that UConn can be competitive in right away. Possibly even better if SEC/B1G leave one or two additional schools like GT or Miami. Of course you don't turn down the Big 12 if they call first.
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The ACC being Duke, Wake Forest, and bunch of Big East and American teams strikes me as ironic.
 
XStorrsion said:
Assuming the worst case is:
B1G: Virginia, ND, UNC, GT
SEC: Clemson, NC State, FSU, Miami

ACC Leftovers would be: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Louisville, Wake, VT

If the B1G doesn't call us, why wouldn't we want to be left with this group? Add in UConn, Temple, Memphis, USF, SMU and you have a decent all around conference that UConn can be competitive in right away. Possibly even better if SEC/B1G leave one or two additional schools like GT or Miami. Of course you don't turn down the Big 12 if they call first.
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The problem is that you won't be left with this group. If these teams are the ACC Leftovers, there's a high probability that The Big 12 would grab Pitt, Duke, VT, and Louisville to build out their eastern flank. If GT or Miami are available swap out Duke. AD Dave should be spending a large portion of his daily time on networking with Big 12 athletic directors, media figures, and other school officials to try to gain entry into the conference before ACC Armageddon in 2035. You need to be in the group doing the picking not the one hoping to get picked.
 
Here is a new theory on realignment found on this podcast, with a way to get FSU, Clemson, Miami and UNC out of the ACC. They leave for SEC or B10.

Then, four other ACC members leave for B12, maybe Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt. The ones heading to the B10 and SEC pay the difference between what the four in the B12 will earn from B12 vs. what the ACC would have paid.

Then, these eight departing members of the ACC dissolve the ACC as we know it. Remaining members could merge with the PAC12 to have a conference of P5 schools from coast to coast with strong academics and sports teams. It could happen sooner than many people think.

And I think UConn may have a place in the PAC12-ACC combined new conference or the B12.

 
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Please tell me why any of the four that hypothetically would leave for the B-12 would do so for equal money to what they would get if the ACC remained in tact?

Basically they would do an enormous financial favor for four conference members while screwing over a half dozen conference members (if eight votes is sufficient) while breaking even in the process. Makes zero sense.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Please tell me why any of the four that hypothetically would leave for the B-12 would do so for equal money to what they would get if the ACC remained in tact?

Basically they would do an enormous financial favor for four conference members while screwing over a half dozen conference members (if eight votes is sufficient) while breaking even in the process. Makes zero sense.
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I sense the second-tier in the ACC are worried the conference will radically change or fall apart while the B12 is likely a better landing place for them given the strength of their football program.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
I sense the second-tier in the ACC are worried the conference will radically change or fall apart while the B12 is likely a better landing place for them given the strength of their football program.
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But, without their consent it doesn't fall apart - until 2036 or a few years earlier when the ACC FB brands get within range of being able to pay off the exit fee and remaining GOR.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
I sense the second-tier in the ACC are worried the conference will radically change or fall apart while the B12 is likely a better landing place for them given the strength of their football program.
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The GOR pretty much assures the second-tier that the conference won't fall apart for at least a decade.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
I sense the second-tier in the ACC are worried the conference will radically change or fall apart while the B12 is likely a better landing place for them given the strength of their football program.
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Eh, I think these schools won’t try to prognosticate what the climate will be in 13 years. So much will change and they can’t even start to predict what will happen. Why change now for the uncertainty of 13 years down the road.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
I sense the second-tier in the ACC are worried the conference will radically change or fall apart while the B12 is likely a better landing place for them given the strength of their football program.
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So the SEC or Big Ten is going to pay the difference to those schools plus the exit fees for the ACC? Plus open themselves up to litigation from the ACC left-behinds... The ACC brands they can add don't add enough money to pay all the fees and the amount it would take a year to make the departing brands whole (and of course there's any potential legal risk they'd have to factor into their cost)
 
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ScottVib said:
So the SEC or Big Ten is going to pay the difference to those schools plus the exit fees for the ACC? Plus open themselves up to litigation from the ACC left-behinds... The ACC brands they can add don't add enough money to pay all the fees and the amount it would take a year to make the departing brands whole (and of course there's any potential legal risk they'd have to factor into their cost)
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Exactly. The SEC wouldn't even pay the difference for Texas and Oklahoma for 3 years why would they or the B1G pay the difference for 10 or 15 years?
 
ScottVib said:
So the SEC or Big Ten is going to pay the difference to those schools plus the exit fees for the ACC? Plus open themselves up to litigation from the ACC left-behinds... The ACC brands they can add don't add enough money to pay all the fees and the amount it would take a year to make the departing brands whole (and of course there's any potential legal risk they'd have to factor into their cost)
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Time will tell!
 
Ldandy said:
The problem is that you won't be left with this group. If these teams are the ACC Leftovers, there's a high probability that The Big 12 would grab Pitt, Duke, VT, and Louisville to build out their eastern flank. If GT or Miami are available swap out Duke. AD Dave should be spending a large portion of his daily time on networking with Big 12 athletic directors, media figures, and other school officials to try to gain entry into the conference before ACC Armageddon in 2035. You need to be in the group doing the picking not the one hoping to get picked.
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Totally agree. You would imagine that Cincinnati and West Virginia in particular would push for Louisville, Pitt and Virginia Tech.
 
billybud said:
"Cuse and BC have had no 8 win seasons in the last ten"
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Syracuse was 10-3 in 2018. But otherwise both BC and the Orange have had a generally rough go lately. Pitt has been solid though.

Unrelated to anything, we paid my eldest daughter's UConn enrollment deposit yesterday and now have a Husky in the family. She had some solid options too - UC San Diego, the University of British Columbia, the University of Toronto and the University of Rochester to name a few. But she opted to go with the hometown school.
 
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