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Arkansas: 22-13
KenPom Rating: 18
NET ranking: 21
4-10 vs Q1 ; 4-2 vs Q2
Record without Trevon Brazile (14-13)
KenPom Rating: 18
NET ranking: 21
4-10 vs Q1 ; 4-2 vs Q2
Record without Trevon Brazile (14-13)
Best Win
- 3/18/23 72-71 v Kansas
- Davis, 25 points on 9-15 FGs
- Council IV, 21 points on 10-11 FTs
Worst Loss:
- 1/14/23 97-84 to Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt shot 50.0 2p% and 55.6 3p%
OFFENSE: 50th in efficiency
- 23rd in FT rate (39.1%)
- Black 62nd in the nation
- Council 135th in the nation
- 33rd in preventing blocks
- 62nd with a 53.1 2p%
- 109th in offensive rebounding rate
- 140th in average length of possession (17.3 seconds)
- 179th in turnover prevention
- 240th in A/FGM (48.4%)
- 268th with a 69.6 FT%
- 318th with a 31.3 3p%
- 348th in 3PA/FGA (27.8%)
DEFENSE: 15th in efficiency
- 13th in 3PA/FGA (30.3%)
- 24th in opp. 3P% (30.6%)
- 18th in block rate (13.3%)
- However their best rim protector, Makhel Mitchell, didn’t play against Kansas due to a groin injury. His brother Makhi, has the 71st best block rate in the nation).
- 25th in steal rate (11.9%)
- Black 123rd in the nation
- Walsh 380th in the nation (Johnson has same rate, but not enough minutes to quality)
- Davis 480th in the nation
- 38th at causing ISO plays
- 48th in opp. 2P% (47.0%)
- 56th quickest opp. Avg. length of possession (17.1 seconds)
- 138th in defensive rebounding rate
- 30th worst in the nation at preventing free-three rate (39.5%)
- 151st in opp. FT% (71.2%)
Other metrics:
- 14th in average height (6’6 ⅔)
- All rotation pieces between 6’4 and 6’10
- 263rd in D1 experience (1.53 years)
- 333rd in Minutes Continuity (16.6%)
Across Eric Musselman’s four seasons apiece at Nevada and Arkansas, he has been one of the first practitioners of the transfer portal and embracing the benefits and upside of constant tinkering.
Based on this, there’s some volatility to the types of teams Mussleman rosters, but the constants are tempo and attacking the rim on offense while on defense, his teams are aggressive on-ball defenders that prevent quality shots and are good at rim protection.
His late Nevada teams and first year at Arkansas was a three-point heavy team, but the perimeter offense is almost non-existent with just a quarter of the team’s FGAs from three. Instead, Mussleman focuses on the team’s strengths: athleticism, size and length to generate easy buckets on transition and accentuating each individual’s ISO ability to breakdown the D in one-on-one halfcourt settings.
Arkansas’ D reminds me a bit of Rutgers’ as the Razorbacks and Scarlet Knights both have bigger guards, but Arkansas relies more on each individual’s size, length and ability than a specific defensive scheme. Each player can defend multiple positions, some arguably every position (Anthony Black can defend the 1 to small ball 5), especially their rim protectors who can all comfortably stretch out and hedge at the perimeter.
That versatility allows the Razorbacks to have one of the best perimeter defenses in the nation. However, with the freakishly athletic 6’10 212 Trevon Brazile (also one of their best shooters and an elite defender) ending his season in December with a knee injury and 6’10 240 elite rim protector Makhel Mitchell missing last game against Kansas due to a groin injury, that leaves Arkansas’ big rotation depth to be tested. More on that later.
Since UConn’s bigs have been dominant this March Madness and Arkansas’ bigs have depth issues, let me start there. As mentioned earlier, Arkansas’ starter Brazile was injured in December and that greatly affected their Final Four aspirations as Brazile was arguably their greatest athlete, best defender and capable shooter.
In the wake of his injury, the Mitchell twins, Johnson and Graham have rotated at the 5, with Graham’s PT fading majorly across the last month and Makhel missing last game with a groin injury.
IF Makhel is still injured (their biggest player and best remaining rim protector), it would leave
the 6’9 230 Makhi Mitchell, 6’7 230 Kamani Johnson and 6’9 225 Jalen Graham splitting time at the 5.
Makhi Mtichell is their best remaining big. He is less of a conventional big man than his brother, but more athletic, versatile and switchable on defense and is still a very gifted rebounder and shot blocker.
The only returning frontcourt option from last year, Johnson is the team’s best rebounder, more of a junkyard dog, blue collar guy who, at 6’7 230, outpositions and outworks on the boards and is basically a non-factor on defense. He kinda reminds me of a poor man’s Jerome Hunter: a team-first forward who will do anything that the coach asks.
Again, IF Makhel is injured, that leaves Makhi as the only remaining big who I feel like can give Sanogo/Clingan trouble and while an important piece to the team, Makhi has only played 30 or more minutes four times this season. Bottom line, there’s a clear advantage for UConn at the 5 spot: they took advantage of this both in the Iona and Saint Mary’s games…if it ain’t broke and there’s a matchup advantage take on that offer all day.
The remaining rotation pieces are interchangeable guards/wings that are each somewhere between 6’4 185 and 6’7 205 and fill out some combination of the 1 through 4 spots.
I’m going to lump Ricky Council and Anthony Black together due to their similar size and propensity to do most of their work inside the arc to take advantage of their elite ability to draw fouls and get to the line.
The Sixth Man of the Year for Wichita State last season, Council has been even better at Arkansas. A ball-dominant wing, Council uses his excellent vision to penetrate space and find open teammates when needed. However, like many SMOTY winners, most of his value is on the offense and is arguably the weakest starter on defense.
Conversely, Black is arguably the team’s best defender who could comfortably guard any of our non-bigs. As the team’s de facto “point wing” (he played point guard in pick and roll situations in high school) he has elite vision, handle and passing ability, but is a poor shooter and is prone to choosing the riskier and flashy play over the safe play (highest turnover rate on the team).
Entering the season as 247’s top rated recruit, Nick Smith has had a bit of an up and down season due to injuries that cost him the first seven games of the season and all of January (knee). There have been some fireworks lately (26 points against Georgia, 24 points against Alabama and 25 points against Kentucky), but Smith has scored a total of six points in his two March Madness games, shooting 2-14 from the field.
Smith’s pro upside is tantalizing and he has the ability to play hero ball, generating offense by making difficult shots, but, like Aidan Mahaney of Saint Mary’s, has seemed to have played differently and less effectively under the spotlight of March Madness.
The team’s longest tenured player, Davonte Davis is Arkansas’ only upperclassman who has played all of his seasons with the Razorbacks. After a solid, but unspectacular, start to his college career, Davis is starting to look like a very good four-year college player whose strength is perimeter defense, but he does enough on offense (no major strengths or weaknesses) to be a versatile 2-guard. Most notably, Davis has made major strides in his three-point shot, converting at a 34.6% clip this season after shooting a combined 25.3% across his first two seasons.
Last, but not least, is Jordan Walsh, who is arguably Arkansas’ best pure athlete and has developed into the team’s ultimate glue guy, despite entering the season as a five-star recruit. While Saint Mary’s Kyle Bowen is an elite defender due to his strength and positioning, Walsh is a rangy, tough 4 who, like Black, can easily defend any of our non-bigs.
Between Arkansas’ ability to not only get to the line, but make it easy for opponents to get to the line, this could be Tristen Newton’s game to generate fouls and use his length to guard Arkansas’ backcourt. For the same reason, Hassan Diarra could play up on Thursday, both thanks to his length, defensive grit and ability to get to the line.
However, as mentioned numerous times, I see, yet again, a clear advantage for UConn’s bigs. They’re bigger and stronger than Arkansas’ bigs and Kansas’ bigs.
Of course, Andre Jackson’s size and defensive versatility will be massive in guarding Ricky Council. Kansas’ Kevin McCullar had the task of guarding Council last game. He’s an excellent defender, but battled foul trouble all game.
Simply put, UConn is clearly the favored team, but Arkansas is a uniquely positionless, athletic defensive squad that will not be an easy out.
KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 75-69
Note from the office: I will be away from my computer Tuesday, March 21st throughout Friday, March 24th while I will be in Arizona visiting in-laws. My lovely mother-in-law is planning our Thursday around the 4:10 tip time in Arizona. God bless her. Thank you for The Boneyard.
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