Are the ACCs Day's Numbered?

[Lock City Husky]

Just passing this one along. This is all based off of an interpretation of the recently-released UNC emails.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2013/10/15/Are-The-ACC-s-Days-Numbered-Part-1-of-3

http://cdn.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2013/10/16/ACC-DAYS-NUMBERED-PART-2

http://cdn.breitbart.com/Breitbart-...THE-ACC-S-DAYS-AS-A-MAJOR-CONFERENCE-NUMBERED

 

[Fishy]

That article seems to have been written without the knowledge of the grant of rights.

 

[billybud]

Striving to make a story...off of really outdated facts...that was then, this is now.

Sure, some ACC teams were interested in what was going on re CR...and worried about falling behind monetarily....FSU did their due diligence as well...

But, all being said, the ACC programs chose to sign a GOR and stick around in an improving conference.

 

[Fishy]

As long as North Carolina and Virginia are solid, the ACC is relatively solid.

The rest of them really don't have any options and aren't much of a threat to go anywhere.

 

[zls44]

Breitbart? Were BuzzFlash and HuffPo stories not available?

 

[UC990411]

I thought this title was "Are the AACs day's numbered?"

 

[John Greene]

The ACC's days are not numbered, yet. UConn has to join first and then our buddies in Bristol will start the count down.

 

[UConnJim]

There are schools that would leave the ACC if they had the option. FSU and Clemson would leave if SEC offered. Pitt and GT would leave if Big 10 offered. But nobody has been offered as far as we know. Thus, the ACC is fine until the SEC or Big 10 decides they want to get bigger.

 

[Ts5034]

There are schools that would leave the ACC if they had the option. FSU and Clemson would leave if SEC offered. Pitt and GT would leave if Big 10 offered. But nobody has been offered as far as we know. Thus, the ACC is fine until the SEC or Big 10 decides they want to get bigger.

So thats pretty much what the future of CR would be? I know the answer to this has been discussed before, but why cant the ACC be the first to expand?

 

[UConnJim]

So thats pretty much what the future of CR would be? I know the answer to this has been discussed before, but why cant the ACC be the first to expand?

Bottom line is that the ACC has too many private schools (Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Syarcuse, Boston College) that have limited fan bases and potential for growth. Big 10 and SEC are mostly made up of state schools with each conference having only one private school.

There will always be an ACC, but the membership could change over time.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Bottom line is that the ACC has too many private schools (Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Syarcuse, Boston College) that have limited fan bases and potential for growth. Big 10 and SEC are mostly made up of state schools with each conference having only one private school.

There will always be an ACC, but the membership could change over time.

That was the only part of the article that had merit. ACC doesn't have the markets, enrollments or alumni base compared to the P4 due to the large number of private schools with small enrollments.

 

[billybud]

True...the private school fan bases are smaller

For ESPN's purposes, there is a national draw for folks who watch Miami football, regardless of region. Same with Duke basketball.

Markets count when you have a BTN getting paid per household....but the ACC would do all right in that measure. By population the ACC would have states...#4 #9, #11, #12

 

[Sea Goat]

Bottom line is that the ACC has too many private schools (Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Syarcuse, Boston College) that have limited fan bases and potential for growth. Big 10 and SEC are mostly made up of state schools with each conference having only one private school.

There will always be an ACC, but the membership could change over time.

It is likely that this article was written with knowledge of GOR. I think it is more ominous for the ACC that GOR isn't referred to. In any event, the article makes sense. You have to believe that if the SEC came calling, FSU and Clemson wouldn't let the door hit them in the leaving. Once they got there they would be middle of the road attendance-wise. Likewise, I think VT, UNC, NCST, UVA etc. would exit stage door left in a flash if the B!G called. The GOR issue would be bought off somehow. Money talking is how all this CR stuff started in the first place. If fannies in the seats mean something, then Clemson, FSU and VT, with 1/3rd of the ACC football attendance total would be the likely exit candidates.

Here are the ACC football attendance numbers for 2012:

• Clemson: 79,429, Up 2 percent
• Florida State: 75,601, Down 3 percent
• Virginia Tech: 65,632, Negligible decrease
• NC State: 54,106, Down 4 percent
• North Carolina:50,286, Down 10 percent
• Louisville: 49,991, Up 3 percent
• Miami: 47,719, Up 2 percent
• Virginia: 46,650, Down 3 percent
• Georgia Tech: 43,955, Down 9 percent
• Pitt: 41,494, Down 10 percent
• Syracuse: 39,507, Down 6 percent
• Boston College: 37,020, Up 4 percent
• Maryland:36,023, Down 15 percent
• Wake Forest: 28,912, Down 10 percent
• Duke: 28,170, Up 15 percent

average 48k

and the SEC's:

• Alabama: 101,722 (minor decrease)
• Georgia: 92,723 (minor decrease)
• LSU: 92,626 (minor decrease)
• Tennessee: 89,965 (5 percent decrease)
• Florida: 87,597 (2 percent decrease)
• Texas A&M: 87,104 (minor decrease)
• Auburn: 82,646 (4 percent decrease)
• South Carolina: 80,001 (1 percent increase)
• Arkansas: 68,046 (2 percent increase)
• Missouri: 67,476 (9 percent increase)
• Ole Miss: 57,066 (1 percent increase)
• Mississippi State: 55,628 (minor decrease)
• Kentucky: 49,691 (17 percent decrease)
• Vanderbilt: 37,860 (15 percent increase)

average 75k

and the B1G's:


Team2012 Average
Indiana 44,802
Northwestern 35,697
Michigan State 75,382
Nebraska 85,517
Wisconsin 80,006
Ohio State 105,330
Michigan 112,252
Iowa 70,474
Minnesota 46,637
Purdue 43,588
Penn State 96,730
Illinois 45,564



average 70k

 

[Lock City Husky]

I kinda laughed too when I learned that Breitbart had a sports section, but I saw a link to this article on Twitter and started reading.

Though the article totally misses in the sense that it doesn't address the GoR, it does hit on some overarching themes that have been discussed here for quite a while

1. Large State Flagships vs. Private Schools There are just 2 private schools in the B1G and SEC combined. There are more than twice as many in the ACC. (There are many more alumni being cranked out at good ol' State U and it's much more likely that in-state, non-attendees will root for State U than the local private school with which they have no affiliation.)

2. Geography - Though the conference has a presence up and down the Eastern Seaboard, the core of the ACC is clustered in two states (VA & NC). Though these are two fast-growing states, that's still too compact when compared to the B1G's footprint or the SEC's footprint.

3. Markets - Obviously there are many large markets in the ACC footprint, but the ACC doesn't dominate many. Outside of the aforementioned states on NC and VA, where are they number 1? They are either, at best, the second school in the market in which they resident (FSU, GT ,Clemson, Louisville, Pitt & Miami) or school that is secondary (or worse) in a pro-sports town (Pitt, BC, Miami, Syracuse - even if you give them NYC).

4. Demographics - In general, these schools are just not as big as the schools in the B1G or SEC or PAC12. So in addition to the college football cultural difference that some of these schools have to overcome, these schools would have to draw in many more non-students/non-alumni to pack a stadium like they do at Michigan, Penn St., Tennessee, Ohio State, Alabama or Texas. Outside of VT, Clemson and FSU, the football gameday atmosphere is just not like the atmosphere at those larger schools.

5. Basketball vs. Football - I'm a Husky, so I wish basketball held more influence, but we know the deal in this area. Yes, UNC-Duke is the biggest and most talked about basketball rivalry in college basketball right now(thanks, ESPN), but will that continue when Coach K inevitably steps down in a few years. (He'll be 67 in Feburary).

 

[billybud]

Doomed! Doomed I tell you. The ACC is doomed.

Just too much Dude going around. Almost like the guy in my town who screams on the street corner every Saturday..."Repent, the end is near!".

I think that folks are looking for stories to sell. The SEC isn't going to invite Clemson nor FSU...and the ACC seems very comfortable with their situation now...If the B1G could have picked up UNC or Virginia, would they have taken Rutgers/Maryland? I think not.

 

[btstimpy]

It is likely that this article was written with knowledge of GOR. I think it is more ominous for the ACC that GOR isn't referred to. In any event, the article makes sense. You have to believe that if the SEC came calling, FSU and Clemson wouldn't let the door hit them in the leaving. Once they got there they would be middle of the road attendance-wise. Likewise, I think VT, UNC, NCST, UVA etc. would exit stage door left in a flash if the B!G called. The GOR issue would be bought off somehow. Money talking is how all this CR stuff started in the first place. If fannies in the seats mean something, then Clemson, FSU and VT, with 1/3rd of the ACC football attendance total would be the likely exit candidates.

Here are the ACC football attendance numbers for 2012:

• 
  [ ]Clemson: 79,429, Up 2 percent
  [ ]Florida State: 75,601, Down 3 percent
  [ ]Virginia Tech: 65,632, Negligible decrease
  [ ]NC State: 54,106, Down 4 percent
  [ ]North Carolina:50,286, Down 10 percent
  [ ]Louisville: 49,991, Up 3 percent
  [ ]Miami: 47,719, Up 2 percent
  [ ]Virginia: 46,650, Down 3 percent
  [ ]Georgia Tech: 43,955, Down 9 percent
  [ ]Pitt: 41,494, Down 10 percent
  [ ]Syracuse: 39,507, Down 6 percent
  [ ]Boston College: 37,020, Up 4 percent
  [ ]Maryland:36,023, Down 15 percent
  [ ]Wake Forest: 28,912, Down 10 percent
  [ ]Duke: 28,170, Up 15 percent

average 48k

and the SEC's:

• 
  [ ]Alabama: 101,722 (minor decrease)
  [ ]Georgia: 92,723 (minor decrease)
  [ ]LSU: 92,626 (minor decrease)
  [ ]Tennessee: 89,965 (5 percent decrease)
  [ ]Florida: 87,597 (2 percent decrease)
  [ ]Texas A&M: 87,104 (minor decrease)
  [ ]Auburn: 82,646 (4 percent decrease)
  [ ]South Carolina: 80,001 (1 percent increase)
  [ ]Arkansas: 68,046 (2 percent increase)
  [ ]Missouri: 67,476 (9 percent increase)
  [ ]Ole Miss: 57,066 (1 percent increase)
  [ ]Mississippi State: 55,628 (minor decrease)
  [ ]Kentucky: 49,691 (17 percent decrease)
  [ ]Vanderbilt: 37,860 (15 percent increase)

average 75k

and the B1G's:


Team2012 Average
Indiana 44,802
Northwestern 35,697
Michigan State 75,382
Nebraska 85,517
Wisconsin 80,006
Ohio State 105,330
Michigan 112,252
Iowa 70,474
Minnesota 46,637
Purdue 43,588
Penn State 96,730
Illinois 45,564



average 70k

The B1G already called on UVA, UNC, Georgia Tech, and Florida State earlier this year. They were told thanks but no thanks, and then all of them signed the GOR in the ACC. The ACC is a mix of public and private schools, and it always has been. There isn't much new here.

Demographically, the region the ACC serves has access to the best high school football talent out there due to overlap with part of the SEC region. The northern schools in the conference will have the opportunity to tap into it. The Big Ten and the Big XII are the leagues that have demographic issues primarily due to the talent for football not coming from their regions with the exception of Texas and somewhat Ohio. They have to sell kids to travel a long way from home to go to school. Now that almost every game is on television in college football, kids don't have to go far away from home to a Big Ten School like Nebraska or Michigan to get on TV. They can stay closer to home at Wake Forest or NC State and get on TV just fine. And if they go to another school in the ACC, they will travel to games in the region that their friends and family can attend.

The author left out Notre Dame in the discussion. Close to half of their schedule will be ACC games every year. They are a small private school with a big stadium.

 

[CL82]

Doomed! Doomed I tell you. The ACC is doomed.

Just too much Dude going around. Almost like the guy in my town who screams on the street corner every Saturday..."Repent, the end is near.

Keep this in mind - he's bound to be right, eventually.

 

[billybud]

Billy Joel has it down...count me in the league with Miami....

"They say there's a heaven for those who will wait
Some say it's better but I say it ain't
I'd rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints
The sinners are much more fun"

 

[Gfunk]

The B1G already called on UVA, UNC, Georgia Tech, and Florida State earlier this year. They were told thanks but no thanks, and then all of them signed the GOR in the ACC. The ACC is a mix of public and private schools, and it always has been. There isn't much new here.

Demographically, the region the ACC serves has access to the best high school football talent out there due to overlap with part of the SEC region. The northern schools in the conference will have the opportunity to tap into it. The Big Ten and the Big XII are the leagues that have demographic issues primarily due to the talent for football not coming from their regions with the exception of Texas and somewhat Ohio. They have to sell kids to travel a long way from home to go to school. Now that almost every game is on television in college football, kids don't have to go far away from home to a Big Ten School like Nebraska or Michigan to get on TV. They can stay closer to home at Wake Forest or NC State and get on TV just fine. And if they go to another school in the ACC, they will travel to games in the region that their friends and family can attend.

The author left out Notre Dame in the discussion. Close to half of their schedule will be ACC games every year. They are a small private school with a big stadium.

What you claim is mere rumor and no more & has been since these choices were first reported. I just can't imagine Delany, a UNC alum, trying to unravel the ACC as people claim. Md was selected for obvious reasons that had more to do with long-term discontent, albeit much self-inflicted and the fact that culturally speaking, Md has plenty in common with much of the BIG, esp the eastern half. Lastly, ND & Pitt already announced to the BIG, which Delany and company viewed as an offensive move by the ACC that clearly entered BIG geography. Thus, another reason to add Md.

It's just absurd to think any actual, factual, published invitations were sent by the BIG to the schools you claim, please don't cite any source related to WVa. Furthermore, please don't be a victim of overstated Internet rumors. Every time the BIG has added a school, it's been far more shocking and unexpected than your claims - though some less popular sources nailed the additions early on.

While I wouldn't mind seeing the BIG add a couple more schools, and my choices are basketball biased (KU and UConn), something tells me the next two will again be a shock & may just dismiss the whole AAU requirement: UCF and USF or a combo of Big12 schools. Yeah, I know : ).

 

[billybud]

I know for a fact that FSU talked to the B1G...our President reported such to us boosters. I know nothing of an invitation since, as you say, such aren't published.

He also reported talking to the SEC and went public with his thought that it did not make sense for the SEC to invite FSU due to their upcoming network footprint needs.

 

[bobbyinaz]

What you claim is mere rumor and no more & has been since these choices were first reported. I just can't imagine Delany, a UNC alum, trying to unravel the ACC as people claim. Md was selected for obvious reasons that had more to do with long-term discontent, albeit much self-inflicted and the fact that culturally speaking, Md has plenty in common with much of the BIG, esp the eastern half. Lastly, ND & Pitt already announced to the BIG, which Delany and company viewed as an offensive move by the ACC that clearly entered BIG geography. Thus, another reason to add Md.

It's just absurd to think any actual, factual, published invitations were sent by the BIG to the schools you claim, please don't cite any source related to WVa. Furthermore, please don't be a victim of overstated Internet rumors. Every time the BIG has added a school, it's been far more shocking and unexpected than your claims - though some less popular sources nailed the additions early on.

While I wouldn't mind seeing the BIG add a couple more schools, and my choices are basketball biased (KU and UConn), something tells me the next two will again be a shock & may just dismiss the whole AAU requirement: UCF and USF or a combo of Big12 schools. Yeah, I know : ).

Rutgers & Maryland were rumored for years to be going to the B1G so neither of them were shocking.

UCF & USF will NEVER be discussed as potential members of the B1G

 

[billybud]

Kansas and Missouri as well as Cincinnati and UConn all make sense for Big Ten additions in that they can be contiguous....real geographic misfits like a Florida team make little real sense.

AAU plays in for Kansas & Mizzou.

 

[btstimpy]

What you claim is mere rumor and no more & has been since these choices were first reported. I just can't imagine Delany, a UNC alum, trying to unravel the ACC as people claim. Md was selected for obvious reasons that had more to do with long-term discontent, albeit much self-inflicted and the fact that culturally speaking, Md has plenty in common with much of the BIG, esp the eastern half. Lastly, ND & Pitt already announced to the BIG, which Delany and company viewed as an offensive move by the ACC that clearly entered BIG geography. Thus, another reason to add Md.

It's just absurd to think any actual, factual, published invitations were sent by the BIG to the schools you claim, please don't cite any source related to WVa. Furthermore, please don't be a victim of overstated Internet rumors. Every time the BIG has added a school, it's been far more shocking and unexpected than your claims - though some less popular sources nailed the additions early on.

While I wouldn't mind seeing the BIG add a couple more schools, and my choices are basketball biased (KU and UConn), something tells me the next two will again be a shock & may just dismiss the whole AAU requirement: UCF and USF or a combo of Big12 schools. Yeah, I know : ).

The Big Ten giving its sales pitch to Virginia is not a rumor. I know for a fact that this happened. The part coming out of the rumor mill that UVA turned in its paperwork to join is fiction. UVA athletics was flattered to be approached by the Big Ten, but they are not interested in the Big Ten.

The AD at Illinois, Ron Guenther, confirmed for you that other ACC schools besides Maryland were approached by the Big Ten. It doesn't take a genious to figure out that who they approached were the AAU schools in the ACC. Maryland listened to the offer more than the others because Maryland Athletics is broke, and they bought the sales pitch. For Rutgers it is an upgrade. In any event, it's not a rumor when the person who was orchestrating this explains it.

http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/...6/loren-tate-guenther-gone-not-forgotten.html

 

[NickyNewark]

Striving to make a story...off of really outdated facts...that was then, this is now.

Sure, some ACC teams were interested in what was going on re CR...and worried about falling behind monetarily....FSU did their due diligence as well...

But, all being said, the ACC programs chose to sign a GOR and stick around in an improving conference.

As long as certain programs are pacified and kept happy!

 

[NickyNewark]

The Big Ten giving its sales pitch to Virginia is not a rumor. I know for a fact that this happened. The part coming out of the rumor mill that UVA turned in its paperwork to join is fiction. UVA athletics was flattered to be approached by the Big Ten, but they are not interested in the Big Ten.

The AD at Illinois, Ron Guenther, confirmed for you that other ACC schools besides Maryland were approached by the Big Ten. It doesn't take a genious to figure out that who they approached were the AAU schools in the ACC. Maryland listened to the offer more than the others because Maryland Athletics is broke, and they bought the sales pitch. For Rutgers it is an upgrade. In any event, it's not a rumor when the person who was orchestrating this explains it.

http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/...6/loren-tate-guenther-gone-not-forgotten.html

You just can't stop trashing RU?StimpyCuse?For the second most popular school in Va your delusionally arrogant.How was the Ball St game up against ACC FB power Va?