AP Top 25 Week 18: UCLA with 3 #1 votes

[Bone Dog]

Of course UCLA is a great team... if we focus only on the athletes on the roster, and mainly on their height, this is undeniable. But if we look at the coach's record, I think we should see some reasons to keep them off the top slot. Has Cori taught her athletes how to be what Geno calls "basketball players"? After last season, I think this is an open question. She went into the portal to get Kneepkens -- not a bad move -- but has she addressed the problems that sank them last year? Has Leger-Walker solved the problem of their guard play? Can they play at UConn's pace now? Last year they couldn't, and Cori admitted as much during the game.

There have been years when athleticism was enough to win an NC. I don't think this is one of those years. But I could be wrong. The tournament seeding will determine a lot. But I suspect that Texas could well defeat UCLA again and if it happens in the final four, UConn will likely play Texas in the NC game. Whatever the AP seeding should be, it strikes me that it ought to include this consideration. I'm not as confident in the prospect of SC beating UCLA, but I don't rule it out. Quad 1 record matters, but it is not the only consideration. I think AP voters also engage in 'eyeball assessments' of likely matchups -- whether they do so well or badly is immaterial. A case can easily be made for an 'eyeball' conclusion that UConn simply deserves their #1 ranking in AP and the overall #1 tournament seeding.l

 

[Dogstar]

Okay y'all. I try not to be biased, but this week's poll has got some crazy town going on.

Iowa +2 after losing by 51 POINTS to UCLA (and that win over MI wasn't as great as it looked)
Duke +5 is reasonable
WVU +3 after beating TCU (we'll see how the next few weeks go, I'm not sold yet)
Ole Miss +5 after losing to S Carolina by 3
ND effectively +5 after almost beating Duke

Iowa, Ole Miss & ND (yuck) picked up pity votes. 🤣

 

[Woof]

Vic Schaefer is a defensive mastermind who has put together and executed game plans to beat more talented teams, including an undefeated UConn in the FF back when he was the HC at MS St. Yesterday, TX absolutely exposed SC’s weaknesses. Honestly, I would rather play any other top team than TX.

As I said, we don't have a flaw like we did in 2017. Vic doesn't have something to take advantage of this time. On the other hand, SC has a better overall resume, had been playing really well up until that loss and, most importantly, the refs favor them...A LOT. SC is #2 in the country in free throw differential. And that is adjusted for 3PT attempt differential. UConn is #100!!!!! Texas is #106. I guess the refs hate him as much as they hate Geno. On a related note, LSU is #5. I do NOT want to see them in our bracket!!!

I guess I am still scarred by that semifinal game against ND in 2018. Other teams of interest: WVU is #3, Maryland is #10. I don't think those teams are close enough to us to be a threat if we are healthy (damn stomach bug is still going around!)

BTW, the data is interesting. Yes, a team that shoots a lot of threes takes less FTs but the correlation is WAY weaker than I expected. Also, as I had long suspected, the more aggressive team is favored by the refs. One would think they would foul more but, actually, they get called for fewer fouls. The more TOs you generate, the fewer fouls you are called for and the correlation is far stronger than with three point attempts.

 

[maple]

Let people pick UCLA or anyone else as #1. We’ll see who’s hanging a banner at the end of the season.

 

[oldude]

As I said, we don't have a flaw like we did in 2017. Vic doesn't have something to take advantage of this time. On the other hand, SC has a better overall resume, had been playing really well up until that loss and, most importantly, the refs favor them...A LOT. SC is #2 in the country in free throw differential. And that is adjusted for 3PT attempt differential. UConn is #100!!!!! Texas is #106. I guess the refs hate him as much as they hate Geno. On a related note, LSU is #5. I do NOT want to see them in our bracket!!!

I guess I am still scarred by that semifinal game against ND in 2018. Other teams of interest: WVU is #3, Maryland is #10. I don't think those teams are close enough to us to be a threat if we are healthy (damn stomach bug is still going around!)

BTW, the data is interesting. Yes, a team that shoots a lot of threes takes less FTs but the correlation is WAY weaker than I expected. Also, as I had long suspected, the more aggressive team is favored by the refs. One would think they would foul more but, actually, they get called for fewer fouls. The more TOs you generate, the fewer fouls you are called for and the correlation is far stronger than with three point attempts.

What exactly was the flaw in 2017. UConn lead the nation in everything, boasting 3 x 1st team AA’s, with wins over Baylor, SC, MD, tOSU, UCLA, OR, LSU, ND, etc.

 

[Woof]

What exactly was the flaw in 2017. UConn lead the nation in everything, boasting 3 x 1st team AA’s, with wins over Baylor, SC, MD, tOSU, UCLA, OR, LSU, ND, etc.

We lacked size because the NCAA delayed the eligibility of Azura. MSU had an advantage in that regard.

Overall, that team had a BPM of 14.1 and WS/40 of 0.289. In comparison, the 2018 team had a BPM of 14.5 and WS/40 of 0.307. 2018 was a more complete team but they couldn't overcome the refs.

 

[oldude]

I was talking about strength of schedule, not seeding

I must say that I agree with Tonyc on this one, particularly if you look at how UConn & UCLA performed against common opponents.

 

[Woof]

I must say that I agree with Tonyc on this one, particularly if you look at how UConn & UCLA performed against common opponents.

Like Iowa?

 

[cabbie191]

With a good showing against Villanova (#34 in Net) tonight, at a neutral site, I believe we have the potential to add one more Quad 1 win to the UConn resume.

Not to quibble too much but I’m not certain I would really consider Mohegan Sun a true neutral site.

 

[Topdawg]

UCLA odds of winning the NCAA championship is currently around +700 which seems like a much better value than UConn at -300.

I am confused by your comment. A negative number implies the market believes UConn has a greater chance of winning the championship.

If you are a gambler and UCLA wins, you will get a higher payout.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm feeling kinda petty today, so here you go:

Percy Allen, The Seattle Times
Sam McKewan, Omaha World-Herald/HuskerExtra
Alex Simon. SF Gate

Really not a fan of publicizing their names. Yes they are there and can be looked up by anyone, but it doesn't need to be easily redistributed, making it easier for fans -of any program- to harass or threaten them. JMHO.

 

[pvdoggy]

I am confused by your comment. A negative number implies the market believes UConn has a greater chance of winning the championship.

If you are a gambler and UCLA wins, you will get a higher payout.

That's what I said, a bet on UCLA is a better value than a bet on Uconn based strictly on the given odds.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not to quibble too much but I’m not certain I would really consider Mohegan Sun a true neutral site.

In the eyes of the NET and the NCAA it's neutral.

 

[oldude]

We lacked size because the NCAA delayed the eligibility of Azura. MSU had an advantage in that regard.

Overall, that team had a BPM of 14.1 and WS/40 of 0.289. In comparison, the 2018 team had a BPM of 14.5 and WS/40 of 0.307. 2018 was a more complete team but they couldn't overcome the refs.

I’m afraid that dog won’t hunt. In that season UConn beat ND, MD, KSU, SC & a towering Baylor team, all of whom had more size than UConn. In the MS St game, our 5’11” center was the game’s leading scorer and rebounder with 21 & 8. Vic took away our shooters and the players who killed us were his guards, particularly Morgan William who was all of 5’5”.

Furthermore what about this past season’s championship when UConn’s most potent lineup had a 6’2” center and a 6’ combo guard playing power forward?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Vic Schaefer is a defensive mastermind who has put together and executed game plans to beat more talented teams, including an undefeated UConn in the FF back when he was the HC at MS St. Yesterday, TX absolutely exposed SC’s weaknesses. Honestly, I would rather play any other top team than TX.

Vic is an excellent defensive coach, but the Mississippi State scheme that broke our 111-game winning streak was reportedly devised by Assistant Coach Carly Thibault, with the likely help of Mike Thibault. She is now the Head Coach at a very fine Fairfield team.

 

[husky98]

What exactly was the flaw in 2017. UConn lead the nation in everything, boasting 3 x 1st team AA’s, with wins over Baylor, SC, MD, tOSU, UCLA, OR, LSU, ND, etc.

The flaw was size. Big time. Pheesa had to play the 5 against against Teaira McCowan!!! She was my favorite and it kinda pissed me off that she was put in that position. Its a testament to how freaky good Pheesa and Gabby were to go almost undefeated without a post player over 6-1.

Poor Natalie Butler had the size but not the skill level for UConn. I was happy she was able to transfer out and find success.

 

[oldude]

Like Iowa?

UConn beat Iowa soundly by 26 early in the season. How about tOSU? UConn beat them by 32. UCLA just beat them by 10.

 

[oldude]

Vic is an excellent defensive coach, but the Mississippi State scheme that broke our 111-game winning streak was reportedly devised by Assistant Coach Carly Thibault, with the likely help of Mike Thibault. She is now the Head Coach at a very fine Fairfield team.

I’m guessing Vic poked his nose in when they were working on the scheme.

 

[husky98]

Furthermore what about this past season’s championship when UConn’s most potent lineup had a 6’2” center and a 6’ combo guard playing power forward?

Its about matchups. Against UCLA Jana played 23 minutes, Ice played 14 key minutes when Jana had to sit with foul trouble. they both did an incredible job of making betts life difficult and earn her points, so by the 4th quarter Betts was gassed.

 

[Kaizen]

Massey Rating: Massey Ratings - College Basketball Women's : NCAA D1 Ratings

 

[MilfordHusky]

I’m guessing Vic poked his nose in when they were working on the scheme.

I'm sure the HC was involved, but Carly was for sure.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I saw some of the Iowa v. Michigan game over the weekend. For folks who watched the Iowa v. UCLA game, what did folks think? Was Iowa gassed after a tough game? UCLA more than doubled the Iowa shooting percentage. That is usually the sign of a slaughter.

 

[Inthepaint]

Not to quibble too much but I’m not certain I would really consider Mohegan Sun a true neutral site.

I’ve always been of the opinion that UCONN has been blessed with three home courts
Not that I’m complaining

 

[husky98]

In the MS St game, our 5’11” center was the game’s leading scorer and rebounder with 21 & 8.

UConn also got out rebounded by 6, out offensive rebounded by 8, and Mississippi State took almost 20 more shots than UConn.

 

[Centerstream]

Not to quibble too much but I’m not certain I would really consider Mohegan Sun a true neutral site.

The same can be said about Greenville, SC as it relates to SoCar.
I'm sure it's considered a neutral site for the Gamecocks.