AP Top 25 Week 18: UCLA with 3 #1 votes | The Boneyard

AP Top 25 Week 18: UCLA with 3 #1 votes

Not too surprising that UCLA grabbed a few #1 votes considering their performance this weekend. I think UConn keeps the overall number 1 seed based on several other factors (pending tonight, of course). Numbers wise, I think there is an argument for UCLA, but, based on history, the eye test, and UConn's undefeated record, its hard NOT to put UConn as the overall number 1.

All that to say, WE'RE DOOMED.
 
Okay y'all. I try not to be biased, but this week's poll has got some crazy town going on.

Iowa +2 after losing by 51 POINTS to UCLA (and that win over MI wasn't as great as it looked)
Duke +5 is reasonable
WVU +3 after beating TCU (we'll see how the next few weeks go, I'm not sold yet)
Ole Miss +5 after losing to S Carolina by 3
ND effectively +5 after almost beating Duke
 
What a slap in the face for a team so dominate that clears its bench in the 4th quarter. UCLA had a good game in the finals of the BIG10 tourney. UConn does that all the time. I would like to know who gave UCLA first place votes. UCLA is a good team but no where close to UConn. UConn runs on defense with 2 AAs fighting for NPOY. I would think defense gets teams to the Finals and right now Texas and UConn have the best defensesive teams in the top 10
 
Tonyc said:
What a slap in the face for a team so dominate that clears its bench in the 4th quarter. UCLA had a good game in the finals of the BIG10 tourney. UConn does that all the time. I would like to know who gave UCLA first place votes. UCLA is a good team but no where close to UConn. UConn runs on defense with 2 AAs fighting for NPOY. I would think defense gets teams to the Finals and right now Texas and UConn have the best defensesive teams in the top 10
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I'm feeling kinda petty today, so here you go:

Percy Allen, The Seattle Times
Sam McKewan, Omaha World-Herald/HuskerExtra
Alex Simon. SF Gate
 
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Tonyc said:
What a slap in the face for a team so dominate that clears its bench in the 4th quarter. UCLA had a good game in the finals of the BIG10 tourney. UConn does that all the time. I would like to know who gave UCLA first place votes. UCLA is a good team but no where close to UConn. UConn runs on defense with 2 AAs fighting for NPOY. I would think defense gets teams to the Finals and right now Texas and UConn have the best defensesive teams in the top 10
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Tony, UCLA has a far more difficult schedule. They are 18-1 in Quad 1 (the best teams) wins and their record is 31-1 overall while UConn is 8-0, 33-0. UConn is #1 in the NET because it’s undefeated. Lose one game and the Huskies fall back to the pack

BTW, South Carolina is 12-3 in Quad 1 wins and Texas is 14-3.
 
I think UCLA is an extremely talented and deep team that is much improved over last season.......they've gone through a difficult conference schedule impressively and deserve a lot of respect......If they haven't seen UConn play all that much, I could see how there are those that might find UCLA to be the overall number one team.....
 
HuskyNan said:
Tony, UCLA has a far more difficult schedule. They are 18-1 in Quad 1 (the best teams) wins and its record is 31-1 overall while UConn is 8-0, 33-0 . UConn is #1 in the NET because it’s undefeated. Lose one game and the Huskies fall back to the pack


BTW, South Carolina is 12-3 in Quad 1 wins and Texas is 14-3.
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UCLA's Quad 1 loss was against Texas...in November.
 
The #` ranking is UConn's until someone beats them. The #1 seeding is locked up, too. What's to worry about?
 
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Tonyc said:
What a slap in the face for a team so dominate that clears its bench in the 4th quarter. UCLA had a good game in the finals of the BIG10 tourney. UConn does that all the time. I would like to know who gave UCLA first place votes. UCLA is a good team but no where close to UConn. UConn runs on defense with 2 AAs fighting for NPOY. I would think defense gets teams to the Finals and right now Texas and UConn have the best defensesive teams in the top 10
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Saying UCLA is no where close to UConn is just crazy. I hope we blow them out, if we face them, but there is zero data to back up a statement like that. They are only 5.5 points behind us in Massey. That is well within reach and especially if the game is not called in our favor. We were 13 points ahead of ND heading into the NCAA tournament in 2018.

On Omni, they are only 3 points behind us and that doesn't include their blowout of Iowa. They are also at the 90th percentile of their rating range for the season, which means they are playing near their peak, while we are at the 29th percentile.

We have a better, overall, record this year but UCLA has definitely caught up and is most definitely "close".
 
If they drop SC to #4 overall, I hope we drop to #2. I would MUCH rather play Texas than SC. We don't have any major flaws like we did when we played Miss. St. in 2017.
 
Quad 1 wins are just one of 12 components the Selection Committee uses to seed the Tournament. The most important imo is “observable component” otherwise known as the “eye test.” My theory is that the Committee initially seeds every team based on their respective eye test and then uses whichever other component that supports their eye test criteria to justify their decisions.

While the sports writers who vote in the AP poll are not necessarily the same people who serve on the Selection Committee, they do provide a pretty good proxy for how the committee views the eye test. In this instance, 3 out of 31 like UCLA at #1 overall, while 28 out of 31 still like UConn as the overall #1.
 
Kat said:
The #` ranking is UConn's until someone beats them. The #1 seeding is locked up, too. What's to worry about?
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IMG_2567.jpeg
 
Woof said:
If they drop SC to #4 overall, I hope we drop to #2. I would MUCH rather play Texas than SC. We don't have any major flaws like we did when we played Miss. St. in 2017.
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Vic Schaefer is a defensive mastermind who has put together and executed game plans to beat more talented teams, including an undefeated UConn in the FF back when he was the HC at MS St. Yesterday, TX absolutely exposed SC’s weaknesses. Honestly, I would rather play any other top team than TX.
 
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Woof said:
Saying UCLA is no where close to UConn is just crazy. I hope we blow them out, if we face them, but there is zero data to back up a statement like that. They are only 5.5 points behind us in Massey. That is well within reach and especially if the game is not called in our favor. We were 13 points ahead of ND heading into the NCAA tournament in 2018.

On Omni, they are only 3 points behind us and that doesn't include their blowout of Iowa. They are also at the 90th percentile of their rating range for the season, which means they are playing near their peak, while we are at the 29th percentile.

We have a better, overall, record this year but UCLA has definitely caught up and is most definitely "close".
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Last Paragraph: definitely "close" ... as in Cori C?
I will only pay attention to the rankings after April 5, game time 12:30 PM
(So, why am I even writing this?).
 
HuskyNan said:
Tony, UCLA has a far more difficult schedule. They are 18-1 in Quad 1 (the best teams) wins and their record is 31-1 overall while UConn is 8-0, 33-0. UConn is #1 in the NET because it’s undefeated. Lose one game and the Huskies fall back to the pack

BTW, South Carolina is 12-3 in Quad 1 wins and Texas is 14-3.
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UConn is #1 in NET because it has the highest average adjusted Net Efficiency (adjusted for opponent quality and venue).
  • Although it is splitting hairs at this point, since there is only 1 remaining pre-NCAAT game.
What throws people off is the NET (the actual number and not the ranking) is calculated independent of Wins and Losses (see the amusing spontaneous TN mini-threads).

If Torvik’s T-Rank/ Barthag is any guide, UCLA’s NET is equidistant to TX and to UConn.

NET is a good measure for the selection of the 37 At-Large teams, at least based on Crème’s Bracketology:
  • The top 50 NET teams are usually selected (or are Automatic Qualifiers) and there are good reasons for the very few omissions (around 2sh).
  • Seeding is a different animal, hence the 12 Selection Committee beholder votes to depart from what the NET suggests as the S-Curve.
The Quad 1 quota theory (which its heavy P4 connotation) is not an explicit factor. Sure, a majority of Selection Committee members are free to vote that way, but it is unprecedented.
 
I would rank the game coaching of the top teams as:
Geno
Vic
Shea
Dawn
and then _______ the other 4 coaches of the top 8.

And that is the order of teams I would prefer not to face, except I think Vandy might struggle more in the rarefied air of the elite eight/FF than LSU, or SC just because it will all be new to the players, even if Shea has tons of experience.

Edit - I actually think UCLA has the most talented roster/most complete team but not the best coaching and sometimes talent wins!
 
oldude said:
Vic Schaefer is a defensive mastermind who has put together and executed game plans to beat more talented teams, including an undefeated UConn in the FF back when he was the HC at MS St. Yesterday, TX absolutely exposed SC’s weaknesses. Honestly, I would rather play any other top team than TX.
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You and I agree on that. I was just about dribbling beer down my chest watching that beatdown that Texas gave USC yesterday. I'd rather face Cori than Dawn, too, though, even after the results yesterday.
 
ucmiami2 said:
I would rank the game coaching of the top teams as:
Geno
Vic
Shea
Dawn
and then _______ the other 4 coaches of the top 8.

And that is the order of teams I would prefer not to face, except I think Vandy might struggle more in the rarefied air of the elite eight/FF than LSU, or SC just because it will all be new to the players, even if Shea has tons of experience.

Edit - I actually think UCLA has the most talented roster/most complete team but not the best coaching and sometimes talent wins!
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UCLA odds of winning the NCAA championship is currently around +700 which seems like a much better value than UConn at -300.
 
BRS24 said:
Okay y'all. I try not to be biased, but this week's poll has got some crazy town going on.

Iowa +2 after losing by 51 POINTS to UCLA (and that win over MI wasn't as great as it looked)
Duke +5 is reasonable
WVU +3 after beating TCU (we'll see how the next few weeks go, I'm not sold yet)
Ole Miss +5 after losing to S Carolina by 3
ND effectively +5 after almost beating Duke
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Iowa - Yes the loss to UCLA was bad, but they did beat Illinois and Michigan by significant margins prior to this game in the tournament.

Ole Miss - Yes, they lost to South Carolina, however they beat Vandy handily prior to that game and Vandy's been considered a potential #2 seed for the tourney.

WVU - I appreciate the skepticism, but WVU is showing they can score just as well as defend. Typically, they've been known as a defensive squad. Watching that game and seeing them score at will it seemed, while beating a significantly taller TCU team the way they did yesterday indicates to me that they're much more balanced than we're used to seeing and peaking at the right time.
 
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oldude said:
Quad 1 wins are just one of 12 components the Selection Committee uses to seed the Tournament. The most important imo is “observable component” otherwise known as the “eye test.” My theory is that the Committee initially seeds every team based on their respective eye test and then uses whichever other component that supports their eye test criteria to justify their decisions.

While the sports writers who vote in the AP poll are not necessarily the same people who serve on the Selection Committee, they do provide a pretty good proxy for how the committee views the eye test. In this instance, 3 out of 31 like UCLA at #1 overall, while 28 out of 31 still like UConn as the overall #1.
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I was talking about strength of schedule, not seeding
 
Of course UCLA is a great team... if we focus only on the athletes on the roster, and mainly on their height, this is undeniable. But if we look at the coach's record, I think we should see some reasons to keep them off the top slot. Has Cori taught her athletes how to be what Geno calls "basketball players"? After last season, I think this is an open question. She went into the portal to get Kneepkens -- not a bad move -- but has she addressed the problems that sank them last year? Has Leger-Walker solved the problem of their guard play? Can they play at UConn's pace now? Last year they couldn't, and Cori admitted as much during the game.

There have been years when athleticism was enough to win an NC. I don't think this is one of those years. But I could be wrong. The tournament seeding will determine a lot. But I suspect that Texas could well defeat UCLA again and if it happens in the final four, UConn will likely play Texas in the NC game. Whatever the AP seeding should be, it strikes me that it ought to include this consideration. I'm not as confident in the prospect of SC beating UCLA, but I don't rule it out. Quad 1 record matters, but it is not the only consideration. I think AP voters also engage in 'eyeball assessments' of likely matchups -- whether they do so well or badly is immaterial. A case can easily be made for an 'eyeball' conclusion that UConn simply deserves their #1 ranking in AP and the overall #1 tournament seeding.l
 
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BRS24 said:
Okay y'all. I try not to be biased, but this week's poll has got some crazy town going on.

Iowa +2 after losing by 51 POINTS to UCLA (and that win over MI wasn't as great as it looked)
Duke +5 is reasonable
WVU +3 after beating TCU (we'll see how the next few weeks go, I'm not sold yet)
Ole Miss +5 after losing to S Carolina by 3
ND effectively +5 after almost beating Duke
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Iowa, Ole Miss & ND (yuck) picked up pity votes. 🤣
 
oldude said:
Vic Schaefer is a defensive mastermind who has put together and executed game plans to beat more talented teams, including an undefeated UConn in the FF back when he was the HC at MS St. Yesterday, TX absolutely exposed SC’s weaknesses. Honestly, I would rather play any other top team than TX.
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As I said, we don't have a flaw like we did in 2017. Vic doesn't have something to take advantage of this time. On the other hand, SC has a better overall resume, had been playing really well up until that loss and, most importantly, the refs favor them...A LOT. SC is #2 in the country in free throw differential. And that is adjusted for 3PT attempt differential. UConn is #100!!!!! Texas is #106. I guess the refs hate him as much as they hate Geno. On a related note, LSU is #5. I do NOT want to see them in our bracket!!!

I guess I am still scarred by that semifinal game against ND in 2018. Other teams of interest: WVU is #3, Maryland is #10. I don't think those teams are close enough to us to be a threat if we are healthy (damn stomach bug is still going around!)

BTW, the data is interesting. Yes, a team that shoots a lot of threes takes less FTs but the correlation is WAY weaker than I expected. Also, as I had long suspected, the more aggressive team is favored by the refs. One would think they would foul more but, actually, they get called for fewer fouls. The more TOs you generate, the fewer fouls you are called for and the correlation is far stronger than with three point attempts.
 
Woof said:
As I said, we don't have a flaw like we did in 2017. Vic doesn't have something to take advantage of this time. On the other hand, SC has a better overall resume, had been playing really well up until that loss and, most importantly, the refs favor them...A LOT. SC is #2 in the country in free throw differential. And that is adjusted for 3PT attempt differential. UConn is #100!!!!! Texas is #106. I guess the refs hate him as much as they hate Geno. On a related note, LSU is #5. I do NOT want to see them in our bracket!!!

I guess I am still scarred by that semifinal game against ND in 2018. Other teams of interest: WVU is #3, Maryland is #10. I don't think those teams are close enough to us to be a threat if we are healthy (damn stomach bug is still going around!)

BTW, the data is interesting. Yes, a team that shoots a lot of threes takes less FTs but the correlation is WAY weaker than I expected. Also, as I had long suspected, the more aggressive team is favored by the refs. One would think they would foul more but, actually, they get called for fewer fouls. The more TOs you generate, the fewer fouls you are called for and the correlation is far stronger than with three point attempts.
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What exactly was the flaw in 2017. UConn lead the nation in everything, boasting 3 x 1st team AA’s, with wins over Baylor, SC, MD, tOSU, UCLA, OR, LSU, ND, etc.
 
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