COMMENTS
Hmmm...Let's see, one of the things I wanted to see in this game was that UConn was preparing itself to go down to Columbia, South Carolina, and take on the number one-ranked team in the country. I don't think that this game did that unless you acknowledge that Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball now. Ashlynn Shade hit a career-high 5 threes and "Q" seems to have found her stroke.
I can't say for sure but, it appears to me that Paige may be showing some signs of the beating she has been taking in just about every game she plays. Her shot was not there in the first half and it was good to see her get back on track for the second half. I know that Paige is impacting the game in other ways, with her defense and her leadership but, I don't think we are seeing the best Paige yet. I don't think we can afford to have KK have an 'ofer' down in Columbia. Finally, Ice Brady needs to improve her rebounding, and her ability to go up strong in the paint and she needs to move towards the ball and make sure she catches the ball and keeps it away from the opposing team...oh, did I mention that she needs to stop making senseless fouls. While I don't think Ice is ready for the big time...let's face it we are out of time. We are going to need her on Sunday. She doesn't have to score double figures (though that would be nice)...we just need her to play tough defense, don't foul, and don't miss bunnies in the paint.
I expect our bench to get much shorter in this game unless our players get into foul trouble and Geno has no option but to go three and four deep into the bench. I think that Geno will give Ice and Q minutes to try and rest his starters who are sure to be tired. I pray that with the intensity that UConn will face in South Carolina, we do not have any additional injuries. These out-of-conference games played late in the season always worry me.
Now onto South Carolina...UConn got lucky with the fact that Dawn had committed to Kamilla Cardoso that she would be allowed to go play with her national team and try to help them qualify for the Olympics. It would have been easy for Coach Staley to tell her hey we have UConn coming to town and we need you to play in this game, of course, it is always a little easier when your team is the only undefeated team in women's college basketball. Regardless, Dawn kept her word to Kamilla and as a result, UConn has certainly dodged the proverbial bullet. But, that being said what does it mean that South Carolina will be playing us without their best player? The answer is, "Not very much". South Carolina is very deep and losing Cardoso's 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while they have Ashlyn Watkins with 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kloe Kitts with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds coming off the bench. Yes, Dawn's frontcourt has gotten a little thinner but it still is quite formidable. Losing their best player for 2 games needs to be put into context. When UConn goes down to South Carolina on Sunday they will be doing so having lost Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Ayanna Patterson, and Jana El-Alfy.
At the end of the day, all anyone can do is play the game with who you have. This will not be an easy road game with such a deep, quality team like South Carolina. It will be a daunting task for UConn to keep it respectable. If UConn manages to win this game it will be because of a strong team effort by the starters, heroics from the stars (Paige and Aaliyah), and solid contributions from Ice and Q. Conventional wisdom says UConn will need to bring their "A" game and South Carolina will need to have an off game.
ANALYSIS
Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN
KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
BENCH
South Carolina will bring 26.5 points and 11 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring in 11 points and 6.9 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
INTANGIBLES
This game will be played on the Gamecocks home court. It will be a hostile environment. SC is deeper than UConn and South Carolina's swagger will be evident when they take the court. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA
COACHING
Dawn is an excellent coach, her play on the court both in college and the WNBA as well as her Olympic experience as a player and a coach. Additionally, having won a national championship and her recruiting over recent years makes her a formidable challenge for Geno and his staff. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
SCORE (my head keeps saying South Carolina by 4-5 points but my heart won't allow me to prognosticate a UConn loss...therefore, I am going with UConn pulling off the upset of the season by 3 points...I haven't been able to pick the MOV yet this season...so, I wouldn't be surprised if I miss it again).
UConn - 74
South Carolina - 71
MOV - 3
