Analysis and Comments - Game 25 - UConn vs South Carolina

[boscolino]

And last thing but not the least we need to avoid silly fouls: our bench is too short.

 

[Skeets]

They don't have to play all zone, but you have to pick your poison. They also aren't stellar at getting through picks and defending the pick and roll. KK gets a lot of fouls trying to get through picks. And Hidalgo demonstrated their inability to effectively defend pick and rolls. Not to mention athletically, we're overmatched. So...just stop penetration. Reserve energy and fouls and just keep them in front of you. SC shoots 41%, but they only make 6 or 7 a game. In any case, it will be interesting to see UCONN's game strategy. If they can control the pace, then they can win.

UConn usually switches on picks. If the switch is slow, such as on Hidalgo, the opponent has a head start beating you to the rim. If the switch is too fast you are exposed to the pick and roll. What's interesting if you watch the UConn men, they never switch. It's always over, under or through the pick. Could explain why there's more blood in the men's game.

 

[Skeets]

I'll say it here because I'll yet hollered at if I do it in the prognostication thread. Should UConn win I'll expect a public apology from all those of so little faith.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

I'll say it here because I'll yet hollered at if I do it in the prognostication thread. Should UConn win I'll expect a public apology from all those of so little faith.

Thanks!!! It needed to be said....

 

[and one]

I posted this in another thread. This is the So Carolina roster separated into Likely to Play and Unlikely to Play/If They Play, UConn was Blown Out


View attachment 96207

SC should and is favored to win. They have a good roster, a good coach, are at home and are undefeated. On the other hand our starting five are pretty good too and so is our coach. Our losses are to quality teams. SC has no losses but four of their wins were by less than 10 points. The upshot here is that this is a winnable game. Our margin of error however is slim.

To get the win we cannot let the following happen:

Have a substantial deficit in offensive rebounding.

Let their guards get too many points on penetrating layups or first breaks.

Get into foul problems early..

Have more than one starter have an off shooting night.

Have more than 10 unforced turnovers.

Get into a position where Ice or Q have to have carrer games to get the win.


If we play a good solid overall game and can keep our starters on the floor we can beat SC. We don't need to have everyone play perfectly or depend on Paige to put up 35 points. This is doable.

 

[Tonyc]

The Biggest Surprise in this game will be Amari getting significant minutes.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Why did Jah get suspended and for how long?

Dawn declined to say.

 

[MooseJaw]

To the OP

View attachment 96195

visitingcock:
Here's to a great game, a game that may turn into a slobber knocker. Hope your team plays its best game and UCONN plays its best game. Unfortunate that both teams will be missing key players. What a game this could be if we were both at full strength. A game that could be the game of the season. Hoping for an injury free game, and a very disappointing afternoon for your Gamecocks.

 

[fomalhaut]

When did Connecticut last have to suspend a player, if ever?

 

[fomalhaut]

It is hard to find a coach who can rival Geno and his staff...but, what the heck...if not Dawn then who?

Nobody.

 

[fomalhaut]

some brilliant person predicted that UConn has started another 13 game winning streak....

Eek! That would give them a loss in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

 

[TCC Kid]

COMMENTS

Hmmm...Let's see, one of the things I wanted to see in this game was that UConn was preparing itself to go down to Columbia, South Carolina, and take on the number one-ranked team in the country. I don't think that this game did that unless you acknowledge that Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball now. Ashlynn Shade hit a career-high 5 threes and "Q" seems to have found her stroke.

I can't say for sure but, it appears to me that Paige may be showing some signs of the beating she has been taking in just about every game she plays. Her shot was not there in the first half and it was good to see her get back on track for the second half. I know that Paige is impacting the game in other ways, with her defense and her leadership but, I don't think we are seeing the best Paige yet. I don't think we can afford to have KK have an 'ofer' down in Columbia. Finally, Ice Brady needs to improve her rebounding, and her ability to go up strong in the paint and she needs to move towards the ball and make sure she catches the ball and keeps it away from the opposing team...oh, did I mention that she needs to stop making senseless fouls. While I don't think Ice is ready for the big time...let's face it we are out of time. We are going to need her on Sunday. She doesn't have to score double figures (though that would be nice)...we just need her to play tough defense, don't foul, and don't miss bunnies in the paint.

I expect our bench to get much shorter in this game unless our players get into foul trouble and Geno has no option but to go three and four deep into the bench. I think that Geno will give Ice and Q minutes to try and rest his starters who are sure to be tired. I pray that with the intensity that UConn will face in South Carolina, we do not have any additional injuries. These out-of-conference games played late in the season always worry me.

Now onto South Carolina...UConn got lucky with the fact that Dawn had committed to Kamilla Cardoso that she would be allowed to go play with her national team and try to help them qualify for the Olympics. It would have been easy for Coach Staley to tell her hey we have UConn coming to town and we need you to play in this game, of course, it is always a little easier when your team is the only undefeated team in women's college basketball. Regardless, Dawn kept her word to Kamilla and as a result, UConn has certainly dodged the proverbial bullet. But, that being said what does it mean that South Carolina will be playing us without their best player? The answer is, "Not very much". South Carolina is very deep and losing Cardoso's 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while they have Ashlyn Watkins with 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kloe Kitts with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds coming off the bench. Yes, Dawn's frontcourt has gotten a little thinner but it still is quite formidable. Losing their best player for 2 games needs to be put into context. When UConn goes down to South Carolina on Sunday they will be doing so having lost Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Ayanna Patterson, and Jana El-Alfy.

At the end of the day, all anyone can do is play the game with who you have. This will not be an easy road game with such a deep, quality team like South Carolina. It will be a daunting task for UConn to keep it respectable. If UConn manages to win this game it will be because of a strong team effort by the starters, heroics from the stars (Paige and Aaliyah), and solid contributions from Ice and Q. Conventional wisdom says UConn will need to bring their "A" game and South Carolina will need to have an off game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

South Carolina will bring 26.5 points and 11 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring in 11 points and 6.9 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played on the Gamecocks home court. It will be a hostile environment. SC is deeper than UConn and South Carolina's swagger will be evident when they take the court. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

COACHING

Dawn is an excellent coach, her play on the court both in college and the WNBA as well as her Olympic experience as a player and a coach. Additionally, having won a national championship and her recruiting over recent years makes her a formidable challenge for Geno and his staff. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE (my head keeps saying South Carolina by 4-5 points but my heart won't allow me to prognosticate a UConn loss...therefore, I am going with UConn pulling off the upset of the season by 3 points...I haven't been able to pick the MOV yet this season...so, I wouldn't be surprised if I miss it again).

UConn - 74
South Carolina - 71

MOV - 3

A pretty fair evaluation. I think you upped Uconn a bit . Dawn should get a pat on the back for her generous and player consideration both deserve high praise --including belief in her team. Good person, good coach.
You are truly right on Ashlynn--she play basketball better than a freshman. Geno should recruit her lower level coach. KK is a freshman, a talented freshman, a terrific passer--experience nearly always tells.
With this team Uconn has a decent chance of winning---chance--not expectation.

 

[Darwin]

How the two Uconn freshman play (Shade and Arnold) will go a long way in determining how well the Huskies play at SC where they have won something like 51 straight games. A lot of pressure on those two freshman to play well in a big environment. Not to mention the players guarding them are fast and athletic as well as skilled. I think Paige and Edwards will need their A+ games in this one, and those two are probably up to that challenge, they have seen everything already in their careers and won’t be frazzled. But UConn has so few fouls to play with, in spite of both teams having 9 players each suited up for this game. That is because SC’s bench players are all productive and active participants in their team’s play, not so for the UConn bench players.

 

[JoePgh]

When did Connecticut last have to suspend a player, if ever?

The closest recent case that I recall is Andra Espinoza-Hunter, who was a freshman in the 2017-18 season. She left the team during the Christmas break and transferred to Mississippi State and later Seton Hall. Subsequently, Geno revealed that she had been given an ultimatum to follow the coaches' instructions or leave the team, and she chose the latter path.

There were other cases in the more distant past where players left the team because things weren't working out. There have probably been cases where lesser punishments were sufficient to resolve the problem, but we typically don't hear about those.

 

[VA Huskie]

I think our starting 5 can beat SC’s starting 5 (sans Cardoso). So the real question is… how do the benches do? Obviously SC’s is deeper and better. So, barring serious foul trouble on our part, we can win this one. It’s a bit of a long shot, but not impossible. Go Huskies!

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Coaching advantage EVEN??? I didn’t even know that was possible. Shocked I tell you.

Dawn is a great coach and the biggest draw in terms of recruiting top talent. But Coach Geno is still the best bench coach in history.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I know that possibly, I'm wrong, but seems as if, we are always end up playing on the S.C. home court ?

If I'm not mistaken, this game hasn't been held in Columbia since 2020. Since then, 2 were in Connecticut, 1 in the Bahamas and one in the Championship Game.

 

[cferraro04]

POST GAME COMMENTARY

I had to watch the game while visiting my grandchildren in New York. South Carolina just proved to be too much for UConn. As a team, they had swagger, played with confidence, played great defense, and made shots. I take my hat off to Dawn great job coaching a great group of players.

During the Analysis above I was pretty much on target except for the SCORE...let's face it I'm a homer I like being as fair as I can when deciding the match-ups and who prevails in each match-up. However, when it comes to predicting who will win the game...I confess...my glasses are Huskie Blue and even though my head says one thing...my heart just can't bring me to let the words "we will lose" escape from my mouth. So, a review of the match-ups and some quick comments as I prefer not to dwell on the loss but look forward to how this team can improve going into the postseason.

ANALYSIS

PREDICTED

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it right...however, Ashlyn was better than advertised and it was closer than I thought it would be.
Aaliyah had 20 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block
Ashlyn had 15, points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE (albeit slight) - UCONN


PREDICTED

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it right...but, I must say I was very impressed with Cloe KItts...
Paige had 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 three-pointers
Cloe had 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block...she also fouled out of this contest.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it wrong...I thought that Nika would be able to contain Raven but Rave proved how tough a player she is and she dominated in this match-up, especially in the rebounding.
Nika had 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal,and 2 three-pointers and unfortunately she also had 5 turnovers.
Raven had 10 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals
The call for this match-up in the Analysis was ADVANTAGE - EVEN....However, based on game data that call has to be changed from EVEN to ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREDICTED

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it wrong...I predicted that this match-up would be even but Ashlynn played well in a high-profile game once again causing me to think that this kid is not playing like a freshman...she is poised, plays solid defense, and is consistent on the offensive end.
Ashlynn had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 three-pointers and 1 block.
Bree had 4 points, 1 assists, 1 block
So the call on this match-up must be changed from EVEN to: ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

In this match-up, Te-Hina dominated she had an incredible game. KK showed that she is still a freshman and needs more time to adjust to the college game.
KK had 2 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block (she had a bad shooting night but, not a bad all-around game)
Te_Hina had 21 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 5 three-pointers.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

PREDICTED - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

South Carolina's bench outplayed UConn...
South Carolina had 19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers.
UConn had 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 three-pointer
Consistent with the analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

 

[Darwin]

If I'm not mistaken, this game hasn't been held in Columbia since 2020. Since then, 2 were in Connecticut, 1 in the Bahamas and one in the Championship Game.

That is why next year’s game is already scheduled to be played in Columbia.

 

[Dognusty]

POST GAME COMMENTARY

I had to watch the game while visiting my grandchildren in New York. South Carolina just proved to be too much for UConn. As a team, they had swagger, played with confidence, played great defense, and made shots. I take my hat off to Dawn great job coaching a great group of players.

During the Analysis above I was pretty much on target except for the SCORE...let's face it I'm a homer I like being as fair as I can when deciding the match-ups and who prevails in each match-up. However, when it comes to predicting who will win the game...I confess...my glasses are Husky Blue and even though my head says one thing...my heart just can't bring me to let the words "we will lose" escape from my mouth. So, a review of the match-ups and some quick comments as I prefer not to dwell on the loss but look forward to how this team can improve going into the postseason.

ANALYSIS

PREDICTED

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it right...however, Ashlyn was better than advertised and it was closer than I thought it would be.
Aaliyah had 20 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block
Ashlyn had 15, points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE (albeit slight) - UCONN


PREDICTED

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it right...but, I must say I was very impressed with Cloe KItts...
Paige had 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 three-pointers
Cloe had 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block...she also fouled out of this contest.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it wrong...I thought that Nika would be able to contain Raven but Rave proved how tough a player she is and she dominated in this match-up, especially in the rebounding.
Nika had 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal,and 2 three-pointers and unfortunately she also had 5 turnovers.
Raven had 10 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals
The call for this match-up in the Analysis was ADVANTAGE - EVEN....However, based on game data that call has to be changed from EVEN to ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREDICTED

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it wrong...I predicted that this match-up would be even but Ashlynn played well in a high-profile game once again causing me to think that this kid is not playing like a freshman...she is poised, plays solid defense, and is consistent on the offensive end.
Ashlynn had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 three-pointers and 1 block.
Bree had 4 points, 1 assists, 1 block
So the call on this match-up must be changed from EVEN to: ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

In this match-up, Te-Hina dominated she had an incredible game. KK showed that she is still a freshman and needs more time to adjust to the college game.
KK had 2 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block (she had a bad shooting night but, not a bad all-around game)
Te_Hina had 21 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 5 three-pointers.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

PREDICTED - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

South Carolina's bench outplayed UConn...
South Carolina had 19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers.
UConn had 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 three-pointer
Consistent with the analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Your matchups are off. Bree Hall guarded Paige. I would say advantage UConn. However Kitts and Shade would be even.

 

[cferraro04]

Your matchups are off. Bree Hall guarded Paige. I would say advantage UConn. However Kitts and Shade would be even.

It is hard to predict what a coach will do on game day...so the match-ups were made according to statistics, height, and position played. It doesn't matter in regards to predictive match-ups on who plays who on game day...it is a statistical analysis. With regards to Hall playing Bueckers you are right...it stays Advantage UConn as that match-up is even more lop-sided and the point was that my original predicted match-up conclusion at least in this case was correct regardless of who guarded Paige. As far as Shade's match-up with Kitts who for the most part played in the post with Bueckers playing defense on her. If we look statistically at that match-up it technically falls in line with my original prediction that had the Shade/Hall match-up as ADVANTAGE - EVEN or (arguably slight advantage - UConn as how many points did UConn score off fouls created by the player, Ashlynn assisted on 2 baskets compared to Kitts assisting on only one basket).

Ashlynn Shade had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 blocks, and 2 three-pointers, 2 turnovers, 1 foul.
Cloe Kitts had: 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 0 three-pointers, 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls.

But, all of this predictive match-up is merely an exercise to look at the pregame analysis a little differently, to provide perspective. The only match-up that mattered in this case was UConn vs South Carolina and clearly, the conclusion was overwhelmingly...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

 

[Dognusty]

It is hard to predict what a coach will do on game day...so the match-ups were made according to statistics, height, and position played. It doesn't matter in regards to predictive match-ups on who plays who on game day...it is a statistical analysis. With regards to Hall playing Bueckers you are right...it stays Advantage UConn as that match-up is even more lop-sided and the point was that my original predicted match-up conclusion at least in this case was correct regardless of who guarded Paige. As far as Shade's match-up with Kitts who for the most part played in the post with Bueckers playing defense on her. If we look statistically at that match-up it technically falls in line with my original prediction that had the Shade/Hall match-up as ADVANTAGE - EVEN or (arguably slight advantage - UConn as how many points did UConn score off fouls created by the player, Ashlynn assisted on 2 baskets compared to Kitts assisting on only one basket).

Ashlynn Shade had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 blocks, and 2 three-pointers, 2 turnovers, 1 foul.
Cloe Kitts had: 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 0 three-pointers, 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls.

But, all of this predictive match-up is merely an exercise to look at the pregame analysis a little differently, to provide perspective. The only match-up that mattered in this case was UConn vs South Carolina and clearly, the conclusion was overwhelmingly...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

What I'm saying is your matchups didn't play out the way you predicted, so in turn you can have a valuable result. Therefore either you change the conclusions because of that. The Kitts vs Paige matchup never occured really and the Hall vs Shade never occured. You cant conclude who won or losses. It never happened

 

[cferraro04]

What I'm saying is your matchups didn't play out the way you predicted, so in turn you can have a valuable result. Therefore either you change the conclusions because of that. The Kitts vs Paige matchup never occured really and the Hall vs Shade never occured. You cant conclude who won or losses. It never happened

What I am saying it was a predictive analysis and the way it played out is a little different than predicted because it is impossible to predict what a coach will do on game day. So, considering your suggestions...(mind you at least half of the match-up played out as Paige did play defense on Kitts and Shade did play defense on Hall). The conclusion was essentially the same...with Paige dominating her match-up; and Shade playing essentially even. I think we are both in agreement that the only important conclusion was the UConn vs South Carolina which was born out by the score.

It should be noted that in every one of these Game Analyses in the past and going forward, I am bound to make an incorrect assumption that Player A will be matched up with Player B.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

That is why next year’s game is already scheduled to be played in Columbia.

I know; I was replying to someone else.

 

[UConn57]

OK let's try this again Husky Nan. UConn is great and their is no deficiencies in their game right now. The sky isn't falling, next year when every one is hopefully healthy UConn will make a run at the Final Four.