Analysis and Comments - Game 25 - UConn vs South Carolina

[cferraro04]

Coaching advantage EVEN??? I didn’t even know that was possible. Shocked I tell you.

Well...it was a tough call but you can't ignore Dawn's success as a USA coach, her success during her tenure at SC, her recruiting ability...I guess it is easy to make good coaching decisions when you are recruiting the best kids (something both Geno and Dawn have been consistently able to do). And, Dawn's playing experience has paid dividends for her in the coaching arena.

It is hard to find a coach who can rival Geno and his staff...but, what the heck...if not Dawn then who?

 

[Darwin]

I disagree that the only advantage is Aaliyah. I don't think it is a maybe that Paige outplays Kitts. I think Kitts is a great player, don't get me wrong...I could only hope that she played for UConn. But, she has been inconsistent albeit she is only averaging 18 minutes per game due to blow-outs but in the games where she gets extended minutes she excels in rebounds but rarely scores more than 11 points per game. She is anemic in assists, steals, and blocks and her three-point shot is non-existent.

Paige knows that for UConn to be respectable she is going to have to take on a bigger offensive role in this game (something she is quite capable of doing). I stand by the Advantage given to Paige.

Since those were the only two advantages I gave to UConn I stand by the analysis of the advantage categories. I may have gone out on a limb with given Shade an even advantage against Bree. That conclusion was completely based on statistics and given Hall's height and experience advantage it may prove to be an incorrect advantage prediction.

Likewise, my even advantage prediction about Nika and Raven could play out to be a slight advantage to Raven if she has a monster game and Nika gets into foul trouble (which is always a concern). And, I do think that Nika can run with Raven, to think otherwise would be like saying that Nika doesn't belong on the same floor with Raven...I don't think that is true. I believe that if Nika can prove to be the in-your-face defender that she appears to be and if she can stay out of foul trouble I think the assessment holds.

About South Carolina having too many guns it must be noted that only five of them can be on the court at the same time.. Therefore, when Fulwiley comes in then clearly someone must go out. UConn's starters assuming they don't foul out will play significant minutes and it more than likely will be a starter who will match up with Fulwiley. All the starters will essentially be able to match up with Milaysia.

I think the advantage section of the analysis can play out exactly. Do I think that in some match-ups it might fall short? Yes! Do I think that in some match-ups there is a chance for the UConn player to play better than assessed? Yes.

Where I believe I took the most liberty was in the projected winner and score. As I said in the analysis my head tells me one thing (South Carolina wins) but, my heart is with my Huskies and as hard as it will be, I am hoping they find a way to get a win. My true wish would have been for South Carolina to have Kamilla Cardoso playing in the game and for the Huskies to have Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Jana El-Alfy and Ayanna Patterson in uniform and available...that is the analysis I would have preferred to be making.

”All the starters will essentially be able to match up with Milaysia”

 

[AmeriConn]

ALL five starters are going to have to come up big.

Paige has yet to hit her stride. In past season games, if we needed a bucket, it came from Paige. Never a doubt. I haven’t seen that Paige this season. Can’t quite put my finger on why. I have no doubt it will come. I know Geno has repeatedly challenged her to take over the game. Having said all that, she continues to be my favorite player.

Aaliyah won’t skip a beat with her great play. We will surely miss having Aubrey come off the bench.

Hoping KK and Ash can handle the pressure of playing the #1 team in the land. We need raining 3’s to stay competitive.

We have nothing to lose. We’re not expected to win. Just go out there and play aggressively. Go Huskies!!

 

[cferraro04]

”All the starters will essentially be able to match up with Milaysia”

Milaysia Fulwiley... Nika...check; Paige...check; KK...check; Shade...check; Edwards...check

 

[SCspur]

Milaysia Fulwiley... Nika...check; Paige...check; KK...check; Shade...check; Edwards...check

Fulwiley is shiftier than Hidalgo and just as fast off the bounce and she got to the basket at will against UConn. Not to mention when she comes into the game UConn’s starters will have played some minutes and will be up against her fresh legs. The way she’s been attacking the rim lately not sure there’s anyone in the country that can keep her from getting there. I guess we’ll have to see.

 

[cferraro04]

Does anyone know how to get the title of a thread to print in bold print? I tried to highlight the title and clicked on the "bold" button switch when I typed it but it still comes up in normal font.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I don't think there is much chance that Chloe Kitts starts a lot of possessions guarding Paige Bueckers.

 

[cferraro04]

I don't think there is much chance that Chloe Kitts starts a lot of possessions guarding Paige Bueckers.

If not Cloe on Paige then who? If not Bueckers on Cloe then who? You may be right that Cloe doesn't guard Bueckers but, I think Bueckers will be guarding Cloe.

 

[omshanti]

Having watched SC play a few games I think that they can be beaten. I think the ND game is in the back of a few player’s minds. Nika will not make the same mistakes with crazy fouls… I hope. If Ash and Paige pop a few threes in the first quarter there is hope. That being said, stopping the penetration of the guards is key. I believe the game will be closer than many people are saying. Nerves can be a factor that affects SC too. They are undefeated and could get tight. The stress of being the only undefeated team left might rear its ugly head Sunday. I say UConn squeaks out a win by 4. Gut check time. Hope the officiating is consistent throughout the game.

 

[cferraro04]

SC is #1 for a reason
SC is playing at home
SC has a huge advantage on the OBDs ( They had 25 OBds last year)
Sc is a better 3 pt shooting team
SC has a long bench
We will have fatigue in the 4th q
AE and Paige need monster games additionally we need to stay out of foul trouble to keep this close
We need a miracle to pull this upset off, here s hoping for one

Why is SC a better 3-point shooting team?

South Carolina averages 6.8 three-pointers per game.
UConn averages 7.1 three-pointers per game.

South Carolina in 21 games has made 143 threes (143/348) for a 41 percent three-point average
UConn in 24 games has made 170 threes (170/456) for a 37 percent three-point average.

South Carolina on a per-game basis has hit three-pointers at the following rate:
12 (once)
10 (three times)
9 (three times)
8 (once)
7 (three times)
6 (four times)
5 (three times)
4 (once)
2 (once)
0 (once)

UConn on a per-game basis has hit three-pointers at the following rate:
12 (once)
11 (twice)
10 (three times)
9 (three times)
8 (three times)
7 (four times)
6 (once)
5 (once)
4 (twice)
3 (three times)
2 (once)

South Carolina hits a higher percentage of three-pointers but UConn hits more three-pointers per game and has more games when they hit a high number of threes.

 

[HuskyNan]

I posted this in another thread. This is the So Carolina roster separated into Likely to Play and Unlikely to Play/If They Play, UConn was Blown Out

 

[cferraro04]

I posted this in another thread. This is the So Carolina roster separated into Likely to Play and Unlikely to Play/If They Play, UConn was Blown Out


View attachment 96207

What do you mean "UConn was blown out"?

 

[Bone Dog]

And, I do think that Nika can run with Raven, to think otherwise would be like saying that Nika doesn't belong on the same floor with Raven...I don't think that is true.

You could be right. Last year, Nika played well and was mainly up against Raven. But I think Raven exposed her with her quickness on several occasions. It was a competitive matchup, as you say. But I still think the edge went to Raven. Also, I think if Paige was playing 18 minutes against Kitts, it would be a clear UConn advantage. But that's not what we're going to see. Paige is going to have to play 35+ minutes against Kitts, Hall, Feagins and maybe even Fulwiley. That's the situation I think is not in Paige's favor.

 

[HuskyNan]

What do you mean "UConn was blown out"?

If UConn is so far behind, on the wrong end of a blowout, Dawn will play the reserves, I.e. end of the bench

 

[cferraro04]

If UConn is so far behind, on the wrong end of a blowout, Dawn will play the reserves, I.e. end of the bench

Thanks, gotcha...

 

[Gamecockfan77]

If UConn is so far behind, on the wrong end of a blowout, Dawn will play the reserves, I.e. end of the bench

Carolina is down to only one non-rotation player with Jah suspended.

I don't think it will be a blowout.

 

[cferraro04]

Why did Jah get suspended and for how long?

 

[The CDR-Ret]

COMMENTS

Hmmm...Let's see, one of the things I wanted to see in this game was that UConn was preparing itself to go down to Columbia, South Carolina, and take on the number one-ranked team in the country. I don't think that this game did that unless you acknowledge that Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball now. Ashlynn Shade hit a career-high 5 threes and "Q" seems to have found her stroke.

I can't say for sure but, it appears to me that Paige may be showing some signs of the beating she has been taking in just about every game she plays. Her shot was not there in the first half and it was good to see her get back on track for the second half. I know that Paige is impacting the game in other ways, with her defense and her leadership but, I don't think we are seeing the best Paige yet. I don't think we can afford to have KK have an 'ofer' down in Columbia. Finally, Ice Brady needs to improve her rebounding, and her ability to go up strong in the paint and she needs to move towards the ball and make sure she catches the ball and keeps it away from the opposing team...oh, did I mention that she needs to stop making senseless fouls. While I don't think Ice is ready for the big time...let's face it we are out of time. We are going to need her on Sunday. She doesn't have to score double figures (though that would be nice)...we just need her to play tough defense, don't foul, and don't miss bunnies in the paint.

I expect our bench to get much shorter in this game unless our players get into foul trouble and Geno has no option but to go three and four deep into the bench. I think that Geno will give Ice and Q minutes to try and rest his starters who are sure to be tired. I pray that with the intensity that UConn will face in South Carolina, we do not have any additional injuries. These out-of-conference games played late in the season always worry me.

Now onto South Carolina...UConn got lucky with the fact that Dawn had committed to Kamilla Cardoso that she would be allowed to go play with her national team and try to help them qualify for the Olympics. It would have been easy for Coach Staley to tell her hey we have UConn coming to town and we need you to play in this game, of course, it is always a little easier when your team is the only undefeated team in women's college basketball. Regardless, Dawn kept her word to Kamilla and as a result, UConn has certainly dodged the proverbial bullet. But, that being said what does it mean that South Carolina will be playing us without their best player? The answer is, "Not very much". South Carolina is very deep and losing Cardoso's 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while they have Ashlyn Watkins with 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kloe Kitts with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds coming off the bench. Yes, Dawn's frontcourt has gotten a little thinner but it still is quite formidable. Losing their best player for 2 games needs to be put into context. When UConn goes down to South Carolina on Sunday they will be doing so having lost Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Ayanna Patterson, and Jana El-Alfy.

At the end of the day, all anyone can do is play the game with who you have. This will not be an easy road game with such a deep, quality team like South Carolina. It will be a daunting task for UConn to keep it respectable. If UConn manages to win this game it will be because of a strong team effort by the starters, heroics from the stars (Paige and Aaliyah), and solid contributions from Ice and Q. Conventional wisdom says UConn will need to bring their "A" game and South Carolina will need to have an off game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

South Carolina will bring 26.5 points and 11 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring in 11 points and 6.9 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played on the Gamecocks home court. It will be a hostile environment. SC is deeper than UConn and South Carolina's swagger will be evident when they take the court. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

COACHING

Dawn is an excellent coach, her play on the court both in college and the WNBA as well as her Olympic experience as a player and a coach. Additionally, having won a national championship and her recruiting over recent years makes her a formidable challenge for Geno and his staff. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE (my head keeps saying South Carolina by 4-5 points but my heart won't allow me to prognosticate a UConn loss...therefore, I am going with UConn pulling off the upset of the season by 3 points...I haven't been able to pick the MOV yet this season...so, I wouldn't be surprised if I miss it again).

UConn - 74
South Carolina - 71

MOV - 3

I cannot project a score against the UConn women either, as some brilliant person predicted that UConn has started another 13 game winning streak....

Even with Feagin & Fulwiley scoring big against Missouri tonight (30 pts) and the four coming off the bench scored 40 pts total, I still believe the Huskies can get 'R done on Sunday!

Go Huskies!!!

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Well...it was a tough call but you can't ignore Dawn's success as a USA coach, her success during her tenure at SC, her recruiting ability...I guess it is easy to make good coaching decisions when you are recruiting the best kids (something both Geno and Dawn have been consistently able to do). And, Dawn's playing experience has paid dividends for her in the coaching arena.

It is hard to find a coach who can rival Geno and his staff...but, what the heck...if not Dawn then who?

It might be the Philly connection...

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Fulwiley is shiftier than Hidalgo and just as fast off the bounce and she got to the basket at will against UConn. Not to mention when she comes into the game UConn’s starters will have played some minutes and will be up against her fresh legs. The way she’s been attacking the rim lately not sure there’s anyone in the country that can keep her from getting there. I guess we’ll have to see.

It is going to come down to putting a body on her, foul if necessary, and then take a few charges. Right up Nika's, KK's, Paige's, and AE's wheelhouse. The key being no new injuries - praying for continued health for the Huskies!

 

[Darwin]

It is going to come down to putting a body on her, foul if necessary, and then take a few charges. Right up Nika's, KK's, Paige's, and AE's wheelhouse. The key being no new injuries - praying for continued health for the Huskies!

Fulwiley will draw fouls, her change of direction and speed with the ball as well as her handles are too good, haven’t seen any player able to stop her getting to the rim yet.

 

[JstVisiting]

…Hope the officiating is consistent throughout the game.

You and me both.

 

[boscolino]

I hope i'm wrong, but imho at this point Uconn has no chance against Scarolina. Our freshmen, though very good for the BigEast, maybe are not so good nationally, compared to Watkins, Fulwiley, Hidalgo etc,
Right now even Paige doesn't look like the NPOY. We must not be distracted from playing in a weak conference.

 

[boscolino]

Anyway, we need to stay focused on defense, try to loose less balls as possible, and take good shots. Simply a very difficult game.

 

[Darwin]

It will be 9 players suited up for S.C. That means they have 4 bench players, of which three are players they use in all games And one which gets few minutes. So basically SC will be playing 8, about the same number as UCONN I would suppose.