Analysis and comments - Game 21 - UConn vs Notre Dame | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Analysis and comments - Game 21 - UConn vs Notre Dame

Bone Dog said:
Thanks again, @cferraro04. I love your take on the game, though I'm not as sanguine about the MoV. And I think I disagree with a couple matchups.

If ND starts Westbeld and Watson, I suspect Geno will play Aaliyah and Ice. He won't have Paige defending Watson or Westbeld except on switches. And if Aaliyah and Ice are on the floor together, Paige will sometimes defend like Aubrey at the top of the key. But when she's not out there, she'll be guarding Citron. Hidalgo and DeWolfe will be mainly defended by Nika and KK/Ash.

Geno may play the 4 guard lineup even if Watson and Westbeld are on the floor together, but primarily to press. The thing is, Hidalgo and Citron may prove very difficult to turnover in a press. So I don't think we'll see much of this.

On the other hand, if Ivey plays 4 guards with Westbeld in the post, I think Geno will play his 4 guards and they'll do very well against ND. I like Citron a lot, but our 4 guards are simply better than Hidalgo Citron DeWolfe and Bransford as a group. Hidalgo will be the fastest player on the floor and KK will be the second fastest. But the rest of the lineup is going to be slower and won't be able to stand up to the defensive pressure Nika Ash and Paige will bring to bear.

The prime matchups will be 1) Westbeld on Aaliyah and I think this will turn on who stays out of foul trouble, and 2) Hidalgo on Nika/KK. I don't think it will be possible to stop Hannah's offense completely. But it may be very possible to stop her passing game. If she gets no or few assists and has several turnovers, ND's offense will suffer.

Now to our offense:

Hidalgo is the same sort of defensive menace KK is, so on offense our passing has to be very crisp. Today's game against Marquette showed some very encouraging indications that KK and Ash can do exactly this. Also key will be Ash and Nika and especially Paige hitting from the perimeter. This will open up the paint for Aaliyah and Ice, but also put a lot of pressure on ND to score as quickly as we do. I suspect this may lead Hidalgo into some turnovers of her own. If Nika and Ash get hot from 3, and Paige is freed up to drive the lane and score from the midrange, Aaliyah will be difficult to handle.

This may be one of those games where we can't just approach it in the usual way, trying to get our offense from our defense. We may have to use our offense to power our defense. If they feel they can't stop Paige Nika and Ash, they may be easier to stop.

I'm hoping for a 10 point win in the 80s. But ND will be tough and this game could go south very easily. On the other hand, if our freshmen keep their cool and do what they are capable of, it will mean an enormous confidence boost for them.
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Believe UConn's chances increase if they can run ND off court so suspect Ice will be first off bench. Whoever the UConn guard that one of the ND bigs has to guard should have big day.
 
Rowdy831 said:
UConn needs to win by double digits in this game considering ND plays on Thursday and then has to travel and play on Saturday afternoon.
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As mentioned earlier, the game is actually Saturday night, not Saturday afternoon. It was last year that UConn played Notre Dame on Sunday afternoon after playing in Connecticut the previous Friday night. I don’t recall much being said about the quick turnaround last year. Notre Dame was healthy last year and UConn was not (no Paige, no Dorka and no Azzi after 13 minutes).

In fact, for as long as UConn has been playing tough non-conference games in January and February, and this goes back through the Maya years at least, UConn has played quick turnaround games (e.g., Saturday/Monday) on the road against ranked opponents. Some of those opponents included South Carolina (at least twice), UNC, Duke, Oklahoma, Baylor to name a few. No one ever said poor UConn because they had to play one night, travel the next and then play on the following afternoon or evening against a ranked opponent. Geno often said the quick turnaround prepared his team for the NCAA tournament (absent the travel between games).
 
Hedge said:
Fair outplayed Hildago. SU 79, ND 65
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Tied game at the end of third quarter: 51 - 51. N.D. making
a comeback in the 3Q: N.D. 19 - 13 for Syracuse. Half time was
38 - 32 in favor of Syracuse. One concern for UCONN: Syracuse
out rebounded N.D.: 45 to 27!! Also N.D. had 10 steals leading to
14 Syracuse turnovers. Good for UCONN: Syracuse hit 43 % of
their three pointers to 37 % for N.D. ?? Bad for UCONN, N.D.
will NOT want to lose two in a row to ranked opponents. Let
Gampel ROCK " BOOM"!!!!!!!
 
I'm not sure what to think about ND after the Syracuse game. So many fouls and Hidalgo trying to do it all by herself. Citron doesn't look 100% at all.
 
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Dillon77 said:
I can see that, particularly since Coach Duffy decided to start Skylar Forbes to help with rebounding and defense. That gives them two forwards and three guards, which very similar to the Irish (I think of Watson and Westbeld as forwards). Marquette's two most established players are forward Liza Karlen and guard Jordan King.

Karlen does a lot of the same things for the Golden Eagles that Maddy Westbeld does for the Irish and Jordan King is the "big" guard/wing, but King is not the ovearall palyer that Sonia Citron is.
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After what I saw tonight, I think Marquette could beat ND so maybe ND is now Marquette light. I was just shocked by ND's performance against Syracuse.
 
Zarathustra said:
Tied game at the end of third quarter: 51 - 51. N.D. making
a comeback in the 3Q: N.D. 19 - 13 for Syracuse. Half time was
38 - 32 in favor of Syracuse. One concern for UCONN: Syracuse
out rebounded N.D.: 45 to 27!! Also N.D. had 10 steals leading to
14 Syracuse turnovers. Good for UCONN: Syracuse hit 43 % of
their three pointers to 37 % for N.D. ?? Bad for UCONN, N.D.
will NOT want to lose two in a row to ranked opponents. Let
Gampel ROCK " BOOM"!!!!!!!
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Sorry about some mis-stats here. I went to two different web pages. The
first one gave the Score Correctly, but the second one had not been
update to the FINAL STATS, thus the errors from the second web page.
Anyhow.... Syracuse won for a number of reasons - one
being they outrebounded N.D. 50 - 34 (I think that is correct).
I wonder how UCONN will do with the looming rebounding battle?
P.S. Did anyone else think that Sonia Citron was limited by her HUGE
knee brace??
Also, LSU losing to South Carolina due to Angel Reese fouling out
at 4: 02 of the fourth quarter - opening the door for USC. A second point
for UCONN vs N.D. " STAY OUT OF FOUL TROUBLE"!
Go UCONN, Beat IRISH! "BOOM" " BOOM" " BOOM"!
Let the game Begin.
 
DEpup said:
I'm not sure what to think about ND after the Syracuse game. So many fouls and Hidalgo trying to do it all by herself. Citron doesn't look 100% at all.
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I agree about Citron. BIG BRACE on that leg!!!
 
The potential defensive match-ups are very interesting. I have no problem starting with Paige on Watson despite the height difference. Westbeld is the far more serious offensive threat, and I can't imagine that with her, Citron and Hildago they would consider Watson against Paige the go to match-up.

Initially I think KK guarding Hildago, and Nika on Citron might be best, but I could see the advantage of throwing different looks at Hildago with Nika too. The toughest defensive situation would be if Aaliyah was out but Westbeld was still in. Geno would probably go with Ice, but I wouldn't be shocked if Geno tried a little of Nika on one of their bigs for a short stretch.

I feel we have multiple defensive options for Hildago and Citron and can give them different looks. Upfront it is different, but I think we can live with a height mismatch against Watson or Marshall, particularly since they will have trouble with our guards at the other end. Westbeld probably needs Aaliyah in the game to defend her.
 
If our strength is our guard play (offense and defense) it becomes a matter of "unstoppable force vs. immovable object". Which set of guards is going to prevail? KK can get 2 fouls in warm-ups with her reaching (the same problem Nika had as a freshman). If she plays SMART, limits herself to being a persistent pest on defense and a catalyst on offense, I feel good about the outcome. Nika will hound Hidalgo - she's not as quick, but she's taller, stronger and meaner. Hidalgo will still get her 15-5-5-3 (pts-reb-asst-stl) but it will be painful and inefficient. On offense it needs to be run and gun; keep ND on their heels and backing up.

Avoid stupid reach-in fouls. Make the smart pass, not the heroic pass.
 
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oldhusky said:
I have no problem starting with Paige on Watson despite the height difference.
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I’m coming around to this same thought after last night’s game. @cferraro04 may have been right all along. And the real issue I’d overlooked before is the defensive mismatch it creates having a big try to defend Paige. This may be worth more than any rebounding edge we lose.

Also, if Sonia is moving badly because of that huge brace, I wonder if she suffered a rehab setback in the last week. I hope not, since healthy she’s a tremendous talent.
 
Bone Dog said:
I’m coming around to this same thought after last night’s game. @cferraro04 may have been right all along. And the real issue I’d overlooked before is the defensive mismatch it creates having a big try to defend Paige. This may be worth more than any rebounding edge we lose.

Also, if Sonia is moving badly because of that huge brace, I wonder if she suffered a rehab setback in the last week. I hope not, since healthy she’s a tremendous talent.
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As for UConn losing the “rebounding edge” vs ND, it should be noted that the smaller Syracuse team was a remarkable +16 off the glass last night. While Westbeld is a solid rebounder, ND’s two 6’4”+ post’s don’t particularly play to their size advantage.
 
HuskyNan said:
Posters on McGraw’s Bench have been bemoaning the chronic lack of an efficient half-court offense for a while now.
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Yes, but reading through the comments on MB, I was actually surprised at the lack of impassioned criticism by the ND faithful, not unlike the transformation on VolNation over the past few years. One other disturbing sign, in a really Big ACC game against a ranked opponent, that had beaten them earlier this season, ND’s attendance was about 5,500 at Purcell Pavilion, an arena that holds over 9,000 fans.

The good news for ND is that there won’t be a shortage of fans on Saturday when they’ll play before a packed house at Gampel.
 
browns said:
I can't see the advantage of KK over Citron..Citron is a terrific all around basketball player not to mention she averages 19 a game.I don't think it's even close
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It isn't an advantage.
 
After watching the ND- Cuse game, we better beat ND by 20 + at home or forget being a top 5 team. Additionally I would give us zero chance to beat SC. I think we will run them off the court.
 
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Bone Dog said:
I’m coming around to this same thought after last night’s game. @cferraro04 may have been right all along. And the real issue I’d overlooked before is the defensive mismatch it creates having a big try to defend Paige. This may be worth more than any rebounding edge we lose.

Also, if Sonia is moving badly because of that huge brace, I wonder if she suffered a rehab setback in the last week. I hope not, since healthy she’s a tremendous talent.
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I hope she hasn’t suffered a setback too as I was happy to see her injury wasn’t season ending. But don’t even think that was the case though. ND have uploaded a postgame press conference last night and when questioned she simply stated “I had a bad day and let my team down”

She has been playing surprisingly well before last night considering missing two months, but I wonder if she might not be a bit rusty or out of shape. They had her chasing Fair for 40 minutes.
 
A couple of thoughts. ND will have problems hold Paige down. I expect her to take over from the start and get everybody involved. Aaliyah imo is too quick for ND and should have a good day. Citron as good as she is and she was really good before her injury has slowed down. UConns pressure will take over. I expect after the Cuse loss ND to be a little easier to beat only because UConns Defense of Duress will clamp down on them and that along with what happened against the Cuse well I think it will manifest
 
oldude said:
Yes, but reading through the comments on MB, I was actually surprised at the lack of impassioned criticism by the ND faithful, not unlike the transformation on VolNation over the past few years. One other disturbing sign, in a really Big ACC game against a ranked opponent, that had beaten them earlier this season, ND’s attendance was about 5,500 at Purcell Pavilion, an arena that holds over 9,000 fans.

The good news for ND is that there won’t be a shortage of fans on Saturday when they’ll play before a packed house at Gampel.
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Even better, it’s $2 beer night.
 
DEpup said:
After what I saw tonight, I think Marquette could beat ND so maybe ND is now Marquette light. I was just shocked by ND's performance against Syracuse.
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They might have been looking past the game
 
DEpup said:
After what I saw tonight, I think Marquette could beat ND so maybe ND is now Marquette light. I was just shocked by ND's performance against Syracuse.
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Yeah, that was promoted as a revenge game on their own court? Outrebounded by 15 to a team that wasn’t that big, just effort!
 
browns said:
I can't see the advantage of KK over Citron..Citron is a terrific all around basketball player not to mention she averages 19 a game.I don't think it's even close

RadfordRam said:
It isn't an advantage.

To begin with, it is noteworthy that I did not give the advantage to KK. I called it even after stating on paper it should be an advantage for Citron. However, if you look at the last six games, a different picture starts to emerge...while it is still statistically on paper an advantage to Citron, it is much closer than people would believe.

My call for even was based on did I think that defensively KK could cause Citron to fall 4 or 5 points below her 17-point average, and did I think her defense could cause Citron to rush her three-point shot and possibly fall below her 2.7 average for three-pointers per game? I think if KK's stellar defense could accomplish these two things then the match-up becomes a statistical push and hence the even call. I wouldn't agree with the posters that say it isn't even close because when we look at the last 6 games played, while Citron statistically beats KK in points, rebounds, and 3-pointers per game KK beats Citron in assists and steals per game. Finally, it should be noted that KK Arnold in the last 6 games has turned the ball over 8 times while Sonia Citron turned the ball over 14 times.

Last 6 games:

Sonia Citron:
Totals - 104 points, 27 rebounds, 17 assists, 9 steals, 16 three-pointers.
Avg/gm - 17.33 pts, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.7 three-pointers.

KK Arnold:
Totals - 77 points, 13 rebounds, 19 assists, 18 steals, 6 three-pointers.
Avg/gm - 12.83 points, 2.2 rebounds, 5.33 assists, 3 steals, 1 three-pointer.
 
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I just think it is a really hard comparison with the two of them since they play such different roles on their teams. Citron is their bigger wing guard who is depended on to take 3 pt shots. That isn't KK's role on her team. KK is the more speedy slasher PG so you probably want Hidalgo but then who does Nika get compared to. I get it....

I think almost all the comparisons from game to game are a stretch because most teams don't start 4 guards let alone 3 PGs. It's a creation out of necessity that just shows how much Geno is crazy like a fox....
 
DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
 
cferraro04 said:
DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
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I would have felt a lot better facing SC with Aubrey in the lineup, who is an exceptional rebounder, capable of guarding 1-5. But that’s water under the bridge. For UConn to possibly beat SC, it’s all about the math. UConn has to win the turnover battle, hit a good % of 2-pt shots, hit more 3’s than SC and stay within 10 rebounds or less of SC’s total. It’s an enormous task, particularly in Columbia.

But as Geno has said before, “You always have a chance when you have the best player on the floor.” In the game against SC, Paige will be the best player on the floor.
 
Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
 
Topsail said:
Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
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UConn was cheated out of that game last year with the no call on the hand off by SC and the refs letting them hold and push the UConn players, mostly Lou.
 
cferraro04 said:
DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
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All I am saying is no other coach could do more with less like him and his coaching staff are doing this year. Other teams have lost one top player and fallen apart. We've now lost 5. I have absolutely no idea whether they can beat SC and their deep rotation. In their situation, it has to be one day at a time and sometimes the little engine that could wins...
 
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