Thanks again,
@cferraro04. I love your take on the game, though I'm not as sanguine about the MoV. And I think I disagree with a couple matchups.
If ND starts Westbeld and Watson, I suspect Geno will play Aaliyah and Ice. He won't have Paige defending Watson or Westbeld except on switches. And if Aaliyah and Ice are on the floor together, Paige will sometimes defend like Aubrey at the top of the key. But when she's not out there, she'll be guarding Citron. Hidalgo and DeWolfe will be mainly defended by Nika and KK/Ash.
Geno may play the 4 guard lineup even if Watson and Westbeld are on the floor together, but primarily to press. The thing is, Hidalgo and Citron may prove very difficult to turnover in a press. So I don't think we'll see much of this.
On the other hand, if Ivey plays 4 guards with Westbeld in the post, I think Geno will play his 4 guards and they'll do very well against ND. I like Citron a lot, but our 4 guards are simply better than Hidalgo Citron DeWolfe and Bransford as a group. Hidalgo will be the fastest player on the floor and KK will be the second fastest. But the rest of the lineup is going to be slower and won't be able to stand up to the defensive pressure Nika Ash and Paige will bring to bear.
The prime matchups will be 1) Westbeld on Aaliyah and I think this will turn on who stays out of foul trouble, and 2) Hidalgo on Nika/KK. I don't think it will be possible to stop Hannah's offense completely. But it may be very possible to stop her passing game. If she gets no or few assists and has several turnovers, ND's offense will suffer.
Now to our offense:
Hidalgo is the same sort of defensive menace KK is, so on offense our passing has to be very crisp. Today's game against Marquette showed some very encouraging indications that KK and Ash can do exactly this. Also key will be Ash and Nika and especially Paige hitting from the perimeter. This will open up the paint for Aaliyah and Ice, but also put a lot of pressure on ND to score as quickly as we do. I suspect this may lead Hidalgo into some turnovers of her own. If Nika and Ash get hot from 3, and Paige is freed up to drive the lane and score from the midrange, Aaliyah will be difficult to handle.
This may be one of those games where we can't just approach it in the usual way, trying to get our offense from our defense. We may have to use our offense to power our defense. If they feel they can't stop Paige Nika and Ash, they may be easier to stop.
I'm hoping for a 10 point win in the 80s. But ND will be tough and this game could go south very easily. On the other hand, if our freshmen keep their cool and do what they are capable of, it will mean an enormous confidence boost for them.