Analysis and comments - Game 21 - UConn vs Notre Dame | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Analysis and comments - Game 21 - UConn vs Notre Dame

oldude

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Posters on McGraw’s Bench have been bemoaning the chronic lack of an efficient half-court offense for a while now.
Yes, but reading through the comments on MB, I was actually surprised at the lack of impassioned criticism by the ND faithful, not unlike the transformation on VolNation over the past few years. One other disturbing sign, in a really Big ACC game against a ranked opponent, that had beaten them earlier this season, ND’s attendance was about 5,500 at Purcell Pavilion, an arena that holds over 9,000 fans.

The good news for ND is that there won’t be a shortage of fans on Saturday when they’ll play before a packed house at Gampel.
 
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After watching the ND- Cuse game, we better beat ND by 20 + at home or forget being a top 5 team. Additionally I would give us zero chance to beat SC. I think we will run them off the court.
 
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I’m coming around to this same thought after last night’s game. @cferraro04 may have been right all along. And the real issue I’d overlooked before is the defensive mismatch it creates having a big try to defend Paige. This may be worth more than any rebounding edge we lose.

Also, if Sonia is moving badly because of that huge brace, I wonder if she suffered a rehab setback in the last week. I hope not, since healthy she’s a tremendous talent.
I hope she hasn’t suffered a setback too as I was happy to see her injury wasn’t season ending. But don’t even think that was the case though. ND have uploaded a postgame press conference last night and when questioned she simply stated “I had a bad day and let my team down”

She has been playing surprisingly well before last night considering missing two months, but I wonder if she might not be a bit rusty or out of shape. They had her chasing Fair for 40 minutes.
 

Tonyc

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A couple of thoughts. ND will have problems hold Paige down. I expect her to take over from the start and get everybody involved. Aaliyah imo is too quick for ND and should have a good day. Citron as good as she is and she was really good before her injury has slowed down. UConns pressure will take over. I expect after the Cuse loss ND to be a little easier to beat only because UConns Defense of Duress will clamp down on them and that along with what happened against the Cuse well I think it will manifest
 

HuskyNan

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Yes, but reading through the comments on MB, I was actually surprised at the lack of impassioned criticism by the ND faithful, not unlike the transformation on VolNation over the past few years. One other disturbing sign, in a really Big ACC game against a ranked opponent, that had beaten them earlier this season, ND’s attendance was about 5,500 at Purcell Pavilion, an arena that holds over 9,000 fans.

The good news for ND is that there won’t be a shortage of fans on Saturday when they’ll play before a packed house at Gampel.
Even better, it’s $2 beer night.
 
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After what I saw tonight, I think Marquette could beat ND so maybe ND is now Marquette light. I was just shocked by ND's performance against Syracuse.
Yeah, that was promoted as a revenge game on their own court? Outrebounded by 15 to a team that wasn’t that big, just effort!
 

cferraro04

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browns said:
I can't see the advantage of KK over Citron..Citron is a terrific all around basketball player not to mention she averages 19 a game.I don't think it's even close

RadfordRam said:
It isn't an advantage.

To begin with, it is noteworthy that I did not give the advantage to KK. I called it even after stating on paper it should be an advantage for Citron. However, if you look at the last six games, a different picture starts to emerge...while it is still statistically on paper an advantage to Citron, it is much closer than people would believe.

My call for even was based on did I think that defensively KK could cause Citron to fall 4 or 5 points below her 17-point average, and did I think her defense could cause Citron to rush her three-point shot and possibly fall below her 2.7 average for three-pointers per game? I think if KK's stellar defense could accomplish these two things then the match-up becomes a statistical push and hence the even call. I wouldn't agree with the posters that say it isn't even close because when we look at the last 6 games played, while Citron statistically beats KK in points, rebounds, and 3-pointers per game KK beats Citron in assists and steals per game. Finally, it should be noted that KK Arnold in the last 6 games has turned the ball over 8 times while Sonia Citron turned the ball over 14 times.


Last 6 games:

Sonia Citron:
Totals - 104 points, 27 rebounds, 17 assists, 9 steals, 16 three-pointers.
Avg/gm - 17.33 pts, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.7 three-pointers.

KK Arnold:
Totals - 77 points, 13 rebounds, 19 assists, 18 steals, 6 three-pointers.
Avg/gm - 12.83 points, 2.2 rebounds, 5.33 assists, 3 steals, 1 three-pointer.
 
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I just think it is a really hard comparison with the two of them since they play such different roles on their teams. Citron is their bigger wing guard who is depended on to take 3 pt shots. That isn't KK's role on her team. KK is the more speedy slasher PG so you probably want Hidalgo but then who does Nika get compared to. I get it....

I think almost all the comparisons from game to game are a stretch because most teams don't start 4 guards let alone 3 PGs. It's a creation out of necessity that just shows how much Geno is crazy like a fox....
 

cferraro04

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DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
 

oldude

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DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
I would have felt a lot better facing SC with Aubrey in the lineup, who is an exceptional rebounder, capable of guarding 1-5. But that’s water under the bridge. For UConn to possibly beat SC, it’s all about the math. UConn has to win the turnover battle, hit a good % of 2-pt shots, hit more 3’s than SC and stay within 10 rebounds or less of SC’s total. It’s an enormous task, particularly in Columbia.

But as Geno has said before, “You always have a chance when you have the best player on the floor.” In the game against SC, Paige will be the best player on the floor.
 
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Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
 

MSGRET

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Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
UConn was cheated out of that game last year with the no call on the hand off by SC and the refs letting them hold and push the UConn players, mostly Lou.
 
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DEpup: I think starting 4 guards is working for Geno...but, after watching the SC / LSU game last night I realize that these two teams play power basketball and I think the 4 guard line-up that UConn is currently playing will have difficulty when playing teams like SC and LSU. I know that Tonyc wouldn't agree as he thinks UConn is already the national champion and believes that no one can beat them. I wish I had his optimism but I don't I am much more of a worry-wort than Tony is. We need Ice Brady to get up to prime-time capability...a second big will be essential against teams like SC and LSU. It would hurt for Amari to make up her mind that she will give us 10 quality minutes per game...we are going to need those two!
All I am saying is no other coach could do more with less like him and his coaching staff are doing this year. Other teams have lost one top player and fallen apart. We've now lost 5. I have absolutely no idea whether they can beat SC and their deep rotation. In their situation, it has to be one day at a time and sometimes the little engine that could wins...
 
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Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
They're better than us at shooting 3's? I thought for sure between Paige, Nika, and Ash plus KK we had to be way ahead of everyone else. That's going to be a tuff game if our only advantage is gone.
 
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I wonder how our stats over the last 13 games in our new formation match with SC. I feel like the early games may be dragging the stats.
 

cferraro04

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Old Dude I had been typing this so i will post it anyways, similar to your thoughts

Uconn vs SC

..SC leads the nation in 3 pt shooting % this year, they have size to bring in off the bench

Last year they killed us on Obds & i expect that to repeat... we shot 51% from floor in last years game and will need to shoot even better this year. AE needs to have a monster game like last year and not foul out. Paige will have to be the x factor this year for us to pull off the upset in their court.
Hey Topsail and Hoopsfan22: I understand your concern regarding 3-point shooting. In the past South Carolina has not been that great in 3-point shooting and depended on its bigs and offensive rebounds. Now they have a few good three-point shooters but, all is not what it seems.

UConn has some pretty good three-point shooters as well. If we look at who is knocking down threes for South Carolina and who is knocking them down for UConn... we see an example of "statistics damn statistics". Let me show you what I mean...


South Carolina has:

Tetina Paopao - 45-84 .536
Melaysia Fulwiley - 22-64 .344
Bree Hall - 35-72 .486
Ravin Johnson - 13-35 .371
Tessa Johnson - 11-26 .423

Average Threes Made per Game - 7.2
Total Threes made on the Season - 130 - 299
Average Threes for the Season - .435
Highest Number of Threes Made in a Game - Ten (1); Nine (1); Eight (1); Seven (3); Six (2)

UConn has:

Paige Bueckers - 44-89 .494
Ashlynn Shade - 32-81 .395
Nika Muhl - 27-62 .435
Qadence Samuels - 22-63 .349
KK Arnold - 14-36 .389

Average Threes Made er Game - 7.6
Total Three Made on the Season - 151 - 389
Average Threes for the Season - .388
Highest Number of Threes Made in a Game - Twelve (2); Eleven (1); Ten (2); Nine (3); Seven (3); Six (4)

Conclusions:

1. On a per-game basis UConn shoots more threes than South Carolina and makes them at a lower percentage.
2. On a per-game basis UConn makes more threes than South Carolina.
3. On the season UConn shoots more threes than South Carolina and makes them at a lower percentage.
4. On the season UConn made more threes than South Carolina.
5. There is no advantage lost to South Carolina concerning three-point shooting.
6. Based on the number of threes made in a game there is a huge chance that UConn will hit more threes in a .....game than South Carolina.
 
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77-73 Uconn... I'm thinking Notre Dame is going to come I to Storrs with energy from their recent loss to Syracuse.
 

oldude

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And the Lady Vols are no longer ranked and are not even receiving any votes to be in the top 25….
 

msf22b

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And the Lady Vols are no longer ranked and are not even receiving any votes to be in the top 25….
But definitely improving...Now at least back in the tourney.
 
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COMMENTS

This is a game we have been waiting for. I am really glad that we are playing this one at Storrs. This will pit Notre Dame’s exceptional back-court and Westbeld against UConn’s 4 guard line-up which features the NCAA’s most efficient player in Paige Bueckers and an emerging All-American Aaliyah Edwards. To say that I am not excited to see this one would be a gross understatement.

Last year UConn went to South Bend without Paige and Dorka. Azzi Fudd only played 13 minutes in that one and was an “ofer”. Aubrey had an off game only scoring 3 points and Ducharme also had an off game only playing 13 minutes as well she only had 2 points. Thank God for Lou Lopez-Senechal who had 21 points. We took a beating 74 to 60. With Miles going for 21 points and 8 rebounds. Westbeld had 17 and 9; Citron had 10 and 6. Lauren Ebo went for 12 and 4. While Dara Mabrey contributed 10 points.

Notre Dame will shorten its bench to 7 players in close tough games. They will start: Maddy Westbeld 6’3” F, Sonia Citron 5’10 G, Hannah Hildago 5’6” G, Anna DeWolfe 5’8” G and Kylee Watson 6’4” F. KK Bransford 5’11” G will be first off the bench and will likely see about 20 minutes. The only other player who will see significant minutes (roughly about 10 minutes) is Nataliia Marshall 6’5” F.

Because Notre Dame will start 6’3”, 6’4”, 5’10’, 5’8”, and 5’6”…I think that Ice Brady may see a start in this game or she will be called into the game early. For the Analysis, I will go with prior practice which will be Geno starting: Aaliyah Edwards, Paige Bueckers, Nike Muhl, Ashlynn Shade, and KK Arnold. However, I would not be surprised to see Ice in the starting line-up.

Notre Dame has played a pretty weak schedule to date. Their current RPI is 27 and their SOS is 52. Their projected seasonal RPI is 39 and their SOS is 55. To date, they have faced teams with the following RPIs: 351, 287, 269, 240, 208, 188, 165, 126, 118, 77, 76. 52, 47, 37, 29 (North Carolina), 23 (Tennessee), 4 (South Carolina).

On the other hand, UConn has not shied away from the tough competition. Their current RPI is 2 and their current SOS is 2. Their projected seasonal RPI is 3 and their projected seasonal SOS is also 3. To date, UConn has faced teams with the following RPIs: 175, 164, 117, 113, 78, 70, 62, 57, 52, 35, 29, 21, 20, 17,13, 9, 7, 3.

The Gamer Winning Odds have this one 7.2 to 1 UConn with a projected score of 86-63.

UConn will need to take care of the basketball as Notre Dame averages 12.4 steals a game with Hannah Hildago playing the role of the “master thief” with 5.5 steals per game. They force 20.7 turnovers per game.

Notre Dame is a pretty good rebounding team averaging 42 rebounds per game. Don’t let Hannah Hildago’s size fool you at 5’6” she would be considered a good rebounding guard averaging 6.6 rebounds per game. Hildago and Citron are a formidable backcourt and they are assisted by two other guards in DeWolfe and KK Bransford

Notre Dame averages 84.4 points per game while giving up 60 on the defensive end. They shoot 47 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three.



ANALYSIS

Scenario 1

Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3”
-
This will be one heck of a matchup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of them in foul trouble and have to go to the bench. I hope it is Maddy and not Aaliyah. Maddy averages 13.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Aaliyah averages 16.7 points and 8.1 rebounds against better competition. Aliyah’s footwork around the basket will help her get the advantage over Westbeld.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs Kylee Watson 6’4” -
I don’t like this match-up but I don’t see anyone else besides Ice Brady matching up with Kylee. Paige gives up 4 inches and as a result, I hope Paige doesn’t find herself in foul trouble as Kylee uses her size to power to the basket. Paige is just too good a basketball player and I would look for Coach Ivy to put KK Bransford in to try and slow down Paige. In any case, if Paige stays out of foul trouble it is a no-brainer here.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” -
This freshman has come into women’s college basketball on “firah”. Hannah is averaging 23.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.64 assists, and 5.5 steals per game. If she played for UConn and had those numbers we would be proclaiming her “all-everything” and there is a very good chance she will win the FOY when it is all said and done. But, for this game at least Nika will ask for the assignment as she always wants to play their best guard. Her defense will make things tough for Hannah but I think Hannah still manages to put in a solid game.
Once again foul trouble is a concern in this match-up…we simply don’t have enough players to make up for the loss of Nika. She has to stay on the court and not make silly fouls. Some might argue that if Nika can cause Hannah to not play up to her averages then she should be given the credit in this match-up. I don’t think that is the case, therefore,

ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” -
Here is another awesome match-up Sonia averages 18.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. KK averages 9.8 points and 2.2 rebounds. 3.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. On paper the advantage should go to Citron…however, Sonia has not faced anyone as annoying on defense as KK is. I think KK can pull Citron down from her averages while forcing Citron to play defense. Containing KK may be somewhat of a challenge for Citron.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade 5’10’ vs Anna DeWolfe 5’8” -
Anna averages 9.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 threes per game. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists .8 steals, and 1.5 threes per game. On paper this is a very close match, however, based on the level of competition played I will go with a slight…
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Scenario 2

Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3”
-
See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs KK Bransford 511”-
It makes no difference if Paige plays Watson or Bransford the result will be the same. Paige will dominate this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

Ashlynn Shade 5’10” vs Anna DeWolf 5’8” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH


Given the fact that Notre Dame will shorten its bench and the starters will play a lot of minutes in this one…they will bring 15.9 points and 8.7 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.9 points and 7.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING


Niele Ivey is a good coach she has a good coaching staff with Michaela Mabrey and Charel Allen (no wonder the guards are so good). However, the UConn coaching staff is more experienced and has accomplished more. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES


It has been brought to my attention that Marquette has been left out of the top 25 which should cause them to play with a chip on their shoulder, however, UConn is playing at home in Storrs in front of the student body. UConn knows what this game means to the seedings in the NCAA so they will be up for this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 81

NOTRE DAME - 63

MOV - 18

COMMENTS

This is a game we have been waiting for. I am really glad that we are playing this one at Storrs. This will pit Notre Dame’s exceptional back-court and Westbeld against UConn’s 4 guard line-up which features the NCAA’s most efficient player in Paige Bueckers and an emerging All-American Aaliyah Edwards. To say that I am not excited to see this one would be a gross understatement.

Last year UConn went to South Bend without Paige and Dorka. Azzi Fudd only played 13 minutes in that one and was an “ofer”. Aubrey had an off game only scoring 3 points and Ducharme also had an off game only playing 13 minutes as well she only had 2 points. Thank God for Lou Lopez-Senechal who had 21 points. We took a beating 74 to 60. With Miles going for 21 points and 8 rebounds. Westbeld had 17 and 9; Citron had 10 and 6. Lauren Ebo went for 12 and 4. While Dara Mabrey contributed 10 points.

Notre Dame will shorten its bench to 7 players in close tough games. They will start: Maddy Westbeld 6’3” F, Sonia Citron 5’10 G, Hannah Hildago 5’6” G, Anna DeWolfe 5’8” G and Kylee Watson 6’4” F. KK Bransford 5’11” G will be first off the bench and will likely see about 20 minutes. The only other player who will see significant minutes (roughly about 10 minutes) is Nataliia Marshall 6’5” F.

Because Notre Dame will start 6’3”, 6’4”, 5’10’, 5’8”, and 5’6”…I think that Ice Brady may see a start in this game or she will be called into the game early. For the Analysis, I will go with prior practice which will be Geno starting: Aaliyah Edwards, Paige Bueckers, Nike Muhl, Ashlynn Shade, and KK Arnold. However, I would not be surprised to see Ice in the starting line-up.

Notre Dame has played a pretty weak schedule to date. Their current RPI is 27 and their SOS is 52. Their projected seasonal RPI is 39 and their SOS is 55. To date, they have faced teams with the following RPIs: 351, 287, 269, 240, 208, 188, 165, 126, 118, 77, 76. 52, 47, 37, 29 (North Carolina), 23 (Tennessee), 4 (South Carolina).

On the other hand, UConn has not shied away from the tough competition. Their current RPI is 2 and their current SOS is 2. Their projected seasonal RPI is 3 and their projected seasonal SOS is also 3. To date, UConn has faced teams with the following RPIs: 175, 164, 117, 113, 78, 70, 62, 57, 52, 35, 29, 21, 20, 17,13, 9, 7, 3.

The Gamer Winning Odds have this one 7.2 to 1 UConn with a projected score of 86-63.

UConn will need to take care of the basketball as Notre Dame averages 12.4 steals a game with Hannah Hildago playing the role of the “master thief” with 5.5 steals per game. They force 20.7 turnovers per game.

Notre Dame is a pretty good rebounding team averaging 42 rebounds per game. Don’t let Hannah Hildago’s size fool you at 5’6” she would be considered a good rebounding guard averaging 6.6 rebounds per game. Hildago and Citron are a formidable backcourt and they are assisted by two other guards in DeWolfe and KK Bransford

Notre Dame averages 84.4 points per game while giving up 60 on the defensive end. They shoot 47 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three.



ANALYSIS

Scenario 1

Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3”
-
This will be one heck of a matchup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of them in foul trouble and have to go to the bench. I hope it is Maddy and not Aaliyah. Maddy averages 13.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Aaliyah averages 16.7 points and 8.1 rebounds against better competition. Aliyah’s footwork around the basket will help her get the advantage over Westbeld.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs Kylee Watson 6’4” -
I don’t like this match-up but I don’t see anyone else besides Ice Brady matching up with Kylee. Paige gives up 4 inches and as a result, I hope Paige doesn’t find herself in foul trouble as Kylee uses her size to power to the basket. Paige is just too good a basketball player and I would look for Coach Ivy to put KK Bransford in to try and slow down Paige. In any case, if Paige stays out of foul trouble it is a no-brainer here.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” -
This freshman has come into women’s college basketball on “firah”. Hannah is averaging 23.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.64 assists, and 5.5 steals per game. If she played for UConn and had those numbers we would be proclaiming her “all-everything” and there is a very good chance she will win the FOY when it is all said and done. But, for this game at least Nika will ask for the assignment as she always wants to play their best guard. Her defense will make things tough for Hannah but I think Hannah still manages to put in a solid game.
Once again foul trouble is a concern in this match-up…we simply don’t have enough players to make up for the loss of Nika. She has to stay on the court and not make silly fouls. Some might argue that if Nika can cause Hannah to not play up to her averages then she should be given the credit in this match-up. I don’t think that is the case, therefore,

ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” -
Here is another awesome match-up Sonia averages 18.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. KK averages 9.8 points and 2.2 rebounds. 3.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. On paper the advantage should go to Citron…however, Sonia has not faced anyone as annoying on defense as KK is. I think KK can pull Citron down from her averages while forcing Citron to play defense. Containing KK may be somewhat of a challenge for Citron.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade 5’10’ vs Anna DeWolfe 5’8” -
Anna averages 9.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 threes per game. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists .8 steals, and 1.5 threes per game. On paper this is a very close match, however, based on the level of competition played I will go with a slight…
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Scenario 2

Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3”
-
See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs KK Bransford 511”-
It makes no difference if Paige plays Watson or Bransford the result will be the same. Paige will dominate this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME

Ashlynn Shade 5’10” vs Anna DeWolf 5’8” -
See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH


Given the fact that Notre Dame will shorten its bench and the starters will play a lot of minutes in this one…they will bring 15.9 points and 8.7 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.9 points and 7.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING


Niele Ivey is a good coach she has a good coaching staff with Michaela Mabrey and Charel Allen (no wonder the guards are so good). However, the UConn coaching staff is more experienced and has accomplished more. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES


It has been brought to my attention that Marquette has been left out of the top 25 which should cause them to play with a chip on their shoulder, however, UConn is playing at home in Storrs in front of the student body. UConn knows what this game means to the seedings in the NCAA so they will be up for this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 81

NOTRE DAME - 63

MOV - 18
Hidalgo is a force to be reckoned with. ND got outrebounded by Syracuse and had a bad night shooting as well. They will come out guns blazing with fierce intensity. I hope we are as focused and determined as they are. Should be a great game.
 

msf22b

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Hey Topsail and Hoopsfan22: I understand your concern regarding 3-point shooting. In the past South Carolina has not been that great in 3-point shooting and depended on its bigs and offensive rebounds. Now they have a few good three-point shooters but, all is not what it seems.

UConn has some pretty good three-point shooters as well. If we look at who is knocking down threes for South Carolina and who is knocking them down for UConn... we see an example of "statistics damn statistics". Let me show you what I mean...


South Carolina has:

Tetina Paopao - 45-84 .536
Melaysia Fulwiley - 22-64 .344
Bree Hall - 35-72 .486
Ravin Johnson - 13-35 .371
Tessa Johnson - 11-26 .423

Average Threes Made per Game - 7.2
Total Threes made on the Season - 130 - 299
Average Threes for the Season - .435
Highest Number of Threes Made in a Game - Ten (1); Nine (1); Eight (1); Seven (3); Six (2)

UConn has:

Paige Bueckers - 44-89 .494
Ashlynn Shade - 32-81 .395
Nika Muhl - 27-62 .435
Qadence Samuels - 22-63 .349
KK Arnold - 14-36 .389

Average Threes Made er Game - 7.6
Total Three Made on the Season - 151 - 389
Average Threes for the Season - .388
Highest Number of Threes Made in a Game - Twelve (2); Eleven (1); Ten (2); Nine (3); Seven (3); Six (4)

Conclusions:

1. On a per-game basis UConn shoots more threes than South Carolina and makes them at a lower percentage.
2. On a per-game basis UConn makes more threes than South Carolina.
3. On the season UConn shoots more threes than South Carolina and makes them at a lower percentage.
4. On the season UConn made more threes than South Carolina.
5. There is no advantage lost to South Carolina concerning three-point shooting.
6. Based on the number of threes made in a game there is a huge chance that UConn will hit more threes in a .....game than South Carolina.
The problem is:
Even if one agrees that three-point shooting might be a wash or even advantage UConn...

That still leaves their massive height advantage inside.
 

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