COMMENTS
This is a game we have been waiting for. I am really glad that we are playing this one at Storrs. This will pit Notre Dame’s exceptional back-court and Westbeld against UConn’s 4 guard line-up which features the NCAA’s most efficient player in Paige Bueckers and an emerging All-American Aaliyah Edwards. To say that I am not excited to see this one would be a gross understatement.
Last year UConn went to South Bend without Paige and Dorka. Azzi Fudd only played 13 minutes in that one and was an “ofer”. Aubrey had an off game only scoring 3 points and Ducharme also had an off game only playing 13 minutes as well she only had 2 points. Thank God for Lou Lopez-Senechal who had 21 points. We took a beating 74 to 60. With Miles going for 21 points and 8 rebounds. Westbeld had 17 and 9; Citron had 10 and 6. Lauren Ebo went for 12 and 4. While Dara Mabrey contributed 10 points.
Notre Dame will shorten its bench to 7 players in close tough games. They will start: Maddy Westbeld 6’3” F, Sonia Citron 5’10 G, Hannah Hildago 5’6” G, Anna DeWolfe 5’8” G and Kylee Watson 6’4” F. KK Bransford 5’11” G will be first off the bench and will likely see about 20 minutes. The only other player who will see significant minutes (roughly about 10 minutes) is Nataliia Marshall 6’5” F.
Because Notre Dame will start 6’3”, 6’4”, 5’10’, 5’8”, and 5’6”…I think that Ice Brady may see a start in this game or she will be called into the game early. For the Analysis, I will go with prior practice which will be Geno starting: Aaliyah Edwards, Paige Bueckers, Nike Muhl, Ashlynn Shade, and KK Arnold. However, I would not be surprised to see Ice in the starting line-up.
Notre Dame has played a pretty weak schedule to date. Their current RPI is 27 and their SOS is 52. Their projected seasonal RPI is 39 and their SOS is 55. To date, they have faced teams with the following RPIs: 351, 287, 269, 240, 208, 188, 165, 126, 118, 77, 76. 52, 47, 37, 29 (North Carolina), 23 (Tennessee), 4 (South Carolina).
On the other hand, UConn has not shied away from the tough competition. Their current RPI is 2 and their current SOS is 2. Their projected seasonal RPI is 3 and their projected seasonal SOS is also 3. To date, UConn has faced teams with the following RPIs: 175, 164, 117, 113, 78, 70, 62, 57, 52, 35, 29, 21, 20, 17,13, 9, 7, 3.
The Gamer Winning Odds have this one 7.2 to 1 UConn with a projected score of 86-63.
UConn will need to take care of the basketball as Notre Dame averages 12.4 steals a game with Hannah Hildago playing the role of the “master thief” with 5.5 steals per game. They force 20.7 turnovers per game.
Notre Dame is a pretty good rebounding team averaging 42 rebounds per game. Don’t let Hannah Hildago’s size fool you at 5’6” she would be considered a good rebounding guard averaging 6.6 rebounds per game. Hildago and Citron are a formidable backcourt and they are assisted by two other guards in DeWolfe and KK Bransford
Notre Dame averages 84.4 points per game while giving up 60 on the defensive end. They shoot 47 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three.
ANALYSIS
Scenario 1
Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3” - This will be one heck of a matchup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of them in foul trouble and have to go to the bench. I hope it is Maddy and not Aaliyah. Maddy averages 13.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Aaliyah averages 16.7 points and 8.1 rebounds against better competition. Aliyah’s footwork around the basket will help her get the advantage over Westbeld.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs Kylee Watson 6’4” - I don’t like this match-up but I don’t see anyone else besides Ice Brady matching up with Kylee. Paige gives up 4 inches and as a result, I hope Paige doesn’t find herself in foul trouble as Kylee uses her size to power to the basket. Paige is just too good a basketball player and I would look for Coach Ivy to put KK Bransford in to try and slow down Paige. In any case, if Paige stays out of foul trouble it is a no-brainer here.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” - This freshman has come into women’s college basketball on “firah”. Hannah is averaging 23.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.64 assists, and 5.5 steals per game. If she played for UConn and had those numbers we would be proclaiming her “all-everything” and there is a very good chance she will win the FOY when it is all said and done. But, for this game at least Nika will ask for the assignment as she always wants to play their best guard. Her defense will make things tough for Hannah but I think Hannah still manages to put in a solid game.
Once again foul trouble is a concern in this match-up…we simply don’t have enough players to make up for the loss of Nika. She has to stay on the court and not make silly fouls. Some might argue that if Nika can cause Hannah to not play up to her averages then she should be given the credit in this match-up. I don’t think that is the case, therefore,
ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME
KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” - Here is another awesome match-up Sonia averages 18.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. KK averages 9.8 points and 2.2 rebounds. 3.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. On paper the advantage should go to Citron…however, Sonia has not faced anyone as annoying on defense as KK is. I think KK can pull Citron down from her averages while forcing Citron to play defense. Containing KK may be somewhat of a challenge for Citron.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Ashlynn Shade 5’10’ vs Anna DeWolfe 5’8” - Anna averages 9.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 threes per game. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists .8 steals, and 1.5 threes per game. On paper this is a very close match, however, based on the level of competition played I will go with a slight…
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Scenario 2
Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” vs Maddy Westbeld 6’3” - See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
KK Arnold 5’9” vs Sonia Citron 5’10” - See above.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Paige Bueckers 6’0” vs KK Bransford 511”- It makes no difference if Paige plays Watson or Bransford the result will be the same. Paige will dominate this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl 5’11” vs Hannah Hildago 5’6” - See above.
ADVANTAGE - NOTRE DAME
Ashlynn Shade 5’10” vs Anna DeWolf 5’8” - See above.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
BENCH
Given the fact that Notre Dame will shorten its bench and the starters will play a lot of minutes in this one…they will bring 15.9 points and 8.7 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.9 points and 7.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
COACHING
Niele Ivey is a good coach she has a good coaching staff with Michaela Mabrey and Charel Allen (no wonder the guards are so good). However, the UConn coaching staff is more experienced and has accomplished more. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
INTANGIBLES
It has been brought to my attention that Marquette has been left out of the top 25 which should cause them to play with a chip on their shoulder, however, UConn is playing at home in Storrs in front of the student body. UConn knows what this game means to the seedings in the NCAA so they will be up for this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
SCORE
UCONN - 81
NOTRE DAME - 63
MOV - 18
