AAC 2nd TV Contract/Negotiations

[noeynox]

The idea of individual schools in The Americam negotiating their own TV contracts is not a new concept. Terry Holland suggested it at the conferences inception. This wouldn't be a bad thing going forward, and maybe the conference can bundle the individual contracts in app offering somehow.

 

[Exit 4]

As long as their hatred of the northeast outweighs their interest in making money, your scenario would be correct.

As long as UConn has interest in its market, it brings more dough to any conference than the 6th best schools in these states.

If that is so assured, why did it feel like we were in the bubble in the last b12 expansion audition? I don’t think it’s hatred, but a legimate fear that a conf with too many far flung states is destined to be weak in the long run. The media rights $ will be hugely influential of course and its difficult to say just how that will play out. It seems the only way we join the B12 remnants is media money forces it on the remaining schools.

Maybe Aresco should put together a war plan for a possible offensive scenario should the b12 remnants be adrift without tv money to attract replacements. The AAC has the better markets, the B12 has the brand - but a deminished brand if UT and Ok leave.

 

[upstater]

If that is so assured, why did it feel like we were in the bubble in the last b12 expansion audition? I don’t think it’s hatred, but a legimate fear that a conf with too many far flung states is destined to be weak in the long run. The media rights $ will be hugely influential of course and its difficult to say just how that will play out. It seems the only way we join the B12 remnants is media money forces it on the remaining schools.

Maybe Aresco should put together a war plan for a possible offensive scenario should the b12 remnants be adrift without tv money to attract replacements. The AAC has the better markets, the B12 has the brand - but a deminished brand if UT and Ok leave.

What are you basing any of this on? Media reports?

Look at the AACs TV deal. We're in a conference with these schools now. The deal is weak and bound to be weaker.

The B12 needs schools that are worth $$ especially when they lose the programs that bring in he dough.

Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, these schools are going to see a massive reduction in payouts.

Don't forget--TCU was ready to join the BE before the B12 came calling. Kansas was calling the BE to join when it looked like Texas and Oklahoma were headed to the Pac12.

 

[Zissou]

Don't forget--TCU was ready to join the BE before the B12 came calling.

TCU was ready to join the Big East until Cuse and Pitt jumped ship. That was the beginning of the end. TCU shifted to the B12 after the BE collapse started.

 

[Exit 4]

What are you basing any of this on? Media reports?

Given all that has gone on, I dont see how anyone can be confident a B12 disintegration means a better place for UConn. UConn's geography is a real barrier for the B12 post Oklahoma scenarios. The B12 remnants will be doing what they can to round down our revenue potential to help justify the no vote. The decision makers will be looking for ways to say no to flights to CT and yes to flights to FL.

I hope to be wrong. I hope when Texas and Oklahoma leave and Fox/whomever declare a merger of the AAC and B12 remnants is the best path forward. If Oklahoma and somehow Kansas leave, and UT remains, I don't like our odds. I think Cincy, Colorado St (hyper active economic growth & excellent community integration between TX and CO) and the two FL schools are in the lead. I think Memphis totally has the potential to pull a Louisville as well regardless of academics.

 

[upstater]

TCU was ready to join the Big East until Cuse and Pitt jumped ship. That was the beginning of the end. TCU shifted to the B12 after the BE collapse started.

They were going to the B12 no matter what if offered. Pitt and Cuse had nothing to do with it. If B12 never came calling, they were set to join the non-Pitt/Cuse BE/AAC.

 

[upstater]

Given all that has gone on, I dont see how anyone can be confident a B12 disintegration means a better place for UConn. UConn's geography is a real barrier for the B12 post Oklahoma scenarios. The B12 remnants will be doing what they can to round down our revenue potential to help justify the no vote. The decision makers will be looking for ways to say no to flights to CT and yes to flights to FL.

I hope to be wrong. I hope when Texas and Oklahoma leave and Fox/whomever declare a merger of the AAC and B12 remnants is the best path forward. If Oklahoma and somehow Kansas leave, and UT remains, I don't like our odds. I think Cincy, Colorado St (hyper active economic growth & excellent community integration between TX and CO) and the two FL schools are in the lead. I think Memphis totally has the potential to pull a Louisville as well regardless of academics.

As I said, the money for that B12 will be minimal at best. If they choose to kill themselves even more when it comes to $$, that's on them.

 

[SubbaBub]

The B12 head fake proved that there isn't any more money to be had by adding branded schools as there are none left. I'm not convinced a move by Texas to another conference would move the per school needle that much.

With the decline in the market for cable rights fees any new model or expansion will be driven by increased in content. Specifically, content controlled by the conference or school.

That means more games, more conference games. Games people want to watch individually or can be packaged for subscriptions. That FCS game is now worthless unless it's included in seasons passes, like NFL preseason games.

This is where UConn loses again. As the best national brand out there, branding is now not the hot attribute for expansion or money. Adding the sixth Texas school adds just as much content as adding UConn and just might be more valuable to the B12 if selling web access subscriptions is the goal.

 

[upstater]

The B12 head fake proved that there isn't any more money to be had by adding branded schools as there are none left. I'm not convinced a move by Texas to another conference would move the per school needle that much.

With the decline in the market for cable rights fees any new model or expansion will be driven by increased in content. Specifically, content controlled by the conference or school.

That means more games, more conference games. Games people want to watch individually or can be packaged for subscriptions. That FCS game is now worthless unless it's included in seasons passes, like NFL preseason games.

This is where UConn loses again. As the best national brand out there, branding is now not the hot attribute for expansion or money. Adding the sixth Texas school adds just as much content as adding UConn and just might be more valuable to the B12 if selling web access subscriptions is the goal.

The B12 head fake proved that they can make $35m per school and that there's no reason to dilute it.

We're talking about a B12 breakup here. Without the schools bringing in the dough, the money package drops to AAC levels.

Just as the AAC made a big mistake by adding the likes of Tulane and Wichita State, the B12 would make a mistake by adding unbranded schools.

 

[Exit 4]

the B12 would make a mistake by adding unbranded schools.

I would not call UCF and USF unbranded schools if that is what you are implying. Colorado St is a weak brand, but the fast growing state of Colorado has fantastic long run demographics and there is no reason to think Colorado St could not edge out Colorado in the long run as the state's flag ship athletic program. Plus, people in the B12 have a natural connection to Colorado by proximity. Cincy is a decent brand - #2 in Ohio and then toss in Memphis to play the "Louisville" spoiler roll as a alternate for any of the above.

There will be a tug of war between the AAC and the B12 over FL when Oklahoma leaves. Each side will argue that they have better long run stability and revenues (yes diminished revenues, but revenues none the less that exceed any other G5 conf). The B12 wont be in a tug of war to add UConn.....because of geography. We only move to the B12 if the tv/media force it on the B12. Thats my POV at this time, hope it plays out differently.

 

[buddy]

I think it is clear that UConn cannot expect help from ESPN, if it came to tv/media forcing UConn on the Big 12. That would have happened last year.

 

[upstater]

I would not call UCF and USF unbranded schools if that is what you are implying. Colorado St is a weak brand, but the fast growing state of Colorado has fantastic long run demographics and there is no reason to think Colorado St could not edge out Colorado in the long run as the state's flag ship athletic program. Plus, people in the B12 have a natural connection to Colorado by proximity. Cincy is a decent brand - #2 in Ohio and then toss in Memphis to play the "Louisville" spoiler roll as a alternate for any of the above.

There will be a tug of war between the AAC and the B12 over FL when Oklahoma leaves. Each side will argue that they have better long run stability and revenues (yes diminished revenues, but revenues none the less that exceed any other G5 conf). The B12 wont be in a tug of war to add UConn.....because of geography. We only move to the B12 if the tv/media force it on the B12. Thats my POV at this time, hope it plays out differently.

Those schools are the 4th and 5th most popular schools in Florida. And recently I was down there and a UCF student told me there were more FSU and UF fans there than UCF fans!

How could Colorado State ever surpass the state flagship? They make $1m a year. UC makes 30x that.

In Ohio, there is OSU, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. Cincy is an afterthought. Could never ever have an impact in its market like UConn does.

In any tug of war, the AAC will lose. This is a conference with Tulsa, Wichita St., Tulane, Memphis, East Carolina, Temple, etc. It is a conference where you get ripped off because these members don't bring in the dough.

 

[Exit 4]

Those schools are the 4th and 5th most popular schools in Florida. And recently I was down there and a UCF student told me there were more FSU and UF fans there than UCF fans!

How could Colorado State ever surpass the state flagship? They make $1m a year. UC makes 30x that.

In Ohio, there is OSU, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. Cincy is an afterthought. Could never ever have an impact in its market like UConn does.

In any tug of war, the AAC will lose. This is a conference with Tulsa, Wichita St., Tulane, Memphis, East Carolina, Temple, etc. It is a conference where you get ripped off because these members don't bring in the dough.

Since 2000, Colorado has added 1.7MM, Florida 5MM and Texas 7MM people. Tennessee has also added 1MM people. Meanwhile CT has added 158k and RH is basically flat. Demographic trends along with proximity/geography will be a factor in the decision making in 2022/23 when pondering what is hoped to be a 20+ year arrangement. So will alumni integration and natural rivalry (Colorado St strong these fronts). We maybe #1 in our market, but the other markets offer a growth story. And if we dont pick up our own MBB and football programs in the immediate years to come, the notion of bringing the #1 school in a small state becomes significantly weaker. The #1 story is already under siege by our weak FB attendance.

And if we are so assured of a seat with the B12 remnants, then I'm puzzled why the B12's audition process seem to make the extra effort to bring in such a wide net of candidates. A candidate list that seem to grow until the moment the plug was pulled.

The AAC can win certain tug of war scenarios, it all depends on who leaves the B12 and if the AAC can maintain/further elevate its football/MBB in the years ahead. The AAC should be able to win a tug of war if Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas fully exit.

 

[upstater]

Since 2000, Colorado has added 1.7MM, Florida 5MM and Texas 7MM people. Tennessee has also added 1MM people. Meanwhile CT has added 158k and RH is basically flat. Demographic trends along with proximity/geography will be a factor in the decision making in 2022/23 when pondering what is hoped to be a 20+ year arrangement. So will alumni integration and natural rivalry (Colorado St strong these fronts). We maybe #1 in our market, but the other markets offer a growth story. And if we dont pick up our own MBB and football programs in the immediate years to come, the notion of bringing the #1 school in a small state becomes significantly weaker. The #1 story is already under siege by our weak FB attendance.

And if we are so assured of a seat with the B12 remnants, then I'm puzzled why the B12's audition process seem to make the extra effort to bring in such a wide net of candidates. A candidate list that seem to grow until the moment the plug was pulled.

The AAC can win certain tug of war scenarios, it all depends on who leaves the B12 and if the AAC can maintain/further elevate its football/MBB in the years ahead. The AAC should be able to win a tug of war if Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas fully exit.

Look at the population relative to the number of schools. Connecticut has 3.6m wealthy citizens with one school.

Most states this size have multiple schools.

Now look at Colorado where one school is in the Pac12 and makes 30x what the other school makes in its conference. There is no way to catch up with a deficit like that?

Haven't we been saying exactly this about UConn over the years? That eventually the money is going to make it impossible to overcome?

Why would we hold that against UConn but not Colorado State? Makes no sense. CSU is not surpassing UC. Not going to happen.

We may be #1 in our market? Possibly Fairfield is more popular I guess. LOL. Come on, look at the demographics, look at the #s. 3.6m!

 

[Exit 4]

Look at the population relative to the number of schools. Connecticut has 3.6m wealthy citizens with one school.

Most states this size have multiple schools.

Now look at Colorado where one school is in the Pac12 and makes 30x what the other school makes in its conference. There is no way to catch up with a deficit like that?

Haven't we been saying exactly this about UConn over the years? That eventually the money is going to make it impossible to overcome?

Why would we hold that against UConn but not Colorado State? Makes no sense. CSU is not surpassing UC. Not going to happen.

We may be #1 in our market? Possibly Fairfield is more popular I guess. LOL. Come on, look at the demographics, look at the #s. 3.6m!

If you don't think Colorado St, USF, UCF and Cincy are real competitors (with BYU, Houston and Memphis lurking) for any seat at the B12 post Oklahoma table, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't hear many voices agreeing with you that our space is so assured. Boise St, Virginia Tech and UConn were nothing programs 30 years ago. Colorado and the FL schools are well positioned to mirror those trajectories.

PS - CT maybe wealthy, but it doesn't show up in the schools endowment or in ticket prices/fan interest. We all know CT's elite have never been big supporters of the state program. The elite are bedrock ivy/nescac/sub ivy people.

I want UConn to come out a winner on the flip side of the next round of CRA, I just dont have nearly the same level of confidence as you.

 

[upstater]

If you don't think Colorado St, USF, UCF and Cincy are real competitors (with BYU, Houston and Memphis lurking) for any seat at the B12 post Oklahoma table, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't hear many voices agreeing with you that our space is so assured. Boise St, Virginia Tech and UConn were nothing programs 30 years ago. Colorado and the FL schools are well positioned to mirror those trajectories.

PS - CT maybe wealthy, but it doesn't show up in the schools endowment or in ticket prices/fan interest. We all know CT's elite have never been big supporters of the state program. The elite are bedrock ivy/nescac/sub ivy people.

I want UConn to come out a winner on the flip side of the next round of CRA, I just dont have nearly the same level of confidence as you.

Our space is assured? Where did you come up with that?

The P5 have frozen out the G5. The G5 schools are entering an age of dramatically lowered state subsidy and smaller student demographics. These schools are going to crater, not build.

You're totally wrong about state support for UConn.

Not to mention the way SNY parlayed the UConn contract into a $1.65 increase per subscriber on BASIC cable. No other school outside the P5 can even come close to major pull like that. Are you kidding me?

 

[Exit 4]

Our space is assured? Where did you come up with that?

If your point is not that UConn is at the front of the line for B12 expansion then what is your point? That’s really what we are talking about here.

 

[upstater]

If your point is not that UConn is at the front of the line for B12 expansion then what is your point? That’s really what we are talking about here.

I wrote it in my first post. If they want to take less money, then by all means choose unbranded schools. But they'll find, as UConn has, that attaching yourselves to schools without a base means essentially handing other people your money.

 

[Exit 4]

I wrote it in my first post. If they want to take less money, then by all means choose unbranded schools. But they'll find, as UConn has, that attaching yourselves to schools without a base means essentially handing other people your money.

Wait...What?

So why are arguing with me?

Sounds like you agree with me now and you are backing off your original position that UConn was atop the B12 CRA list.

 

[upstater]

Wait...What?

So why are arguing with me?

Sounds like you agree with me now and you are backing off your original position that UConn was atop the B12 CRA list.

You just make stuff up that I never said.

Here is what I wrote. It is right here in the thread:

"As long as their hatred of the northeast outweighs their interest in making money, your scenario would be correct.

As long as UConn has interest in its market, it brings more dough to any conference than the 6th best schools in these states."

You took issue with this statement.

 

[Exit 4]

You just make stuff up that I never said.

Here is what I wrote. It is right here in the thread:

"As long as their hatred of the northeast outweighs their interest in making money, your scenario would be correct.

As long as UConn has interest in its market, it brings more dough to any conference than the 6th best schools in these states."

You took issue with this statement.

So now we have zero arguments. Moving on.

 

[whaler11]

Here is something you can take to the bank.

ESPN+.

 

[Drew]

 

[whaler11]

I just happened to look at the week 1 TV schedule. The AAC is going to be a big part of the ESPN+ growth. They took a lot of stuff of WatchESPN this coming season.

 

[Drew]

I just happened to look at the week 1 TV schedule. The AAC is going to be a big part of the ESPN+ growth. They took a lot of stuff of WatchESPN this coming season.

you can bet any/every AAC vs FCS game will be ESPN+

Hoping its just replacing ESPN3/WatchESPN on the current deal. But we'll see.