2020 Recruiting Thread

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

Jarren Horton in NW Dallas area checking out 6-5 285lb OL Andy Buttrell I imagine.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

Dominick Busby is a 6-4 215lb TE from Seton Hall Prep in NJ. UConn is his first offer.

Highlights

Committed to Columbia today. He picked up 24 other offers since UConn offered (13 FBS incl 2 P5).

 

[Chief00]

Haha, Chief liked Biill's post that GA is almost as good as FLA talent wise.

Indeed, when you factor the population 21M FL to 10.5M GA, the two states turn out about the same % of NFL players per capita. Both states are heavily recruited but more coaches like going to FL. Just human nature. So GA is a relative better investment of time and energy.

 

[Chief00]

To be clear - I have no issue w/ UConn spending time or resources in Georgia. But Florida is Florida.

What you missed in your casual analysis is how intensively the two states gets recruited. While FL is significantly more worked over by recruiters enjoying the beaches, golf and bars.
Plus, I believe your math is wrong. See my post on that.

 

[Chief00]

Of course, Chief had to do the math myself and by population there are more NFL players in GA by either of the two logical math methods.

NFL Players:
212 FL /119 GA = 1.78
Population:
FL 21.3M / GA 10.5M = 2.0

FL
212/21,300,00 = 0.00000995
GA
119/10,500,000 = 0.00001133

 

[Chief00]

Since Chief looks more deeply into the issues than us casual fans, he was undoubtedly referring to the ratio of NFL players from GA and FL to their respective state populations. The ratios below show GA has 14.3% more NFL players per resident than FL:

GA: 1 NFL player per 89,309 residents
FL: 1 NFL player per 102,105 residents

LOL - where are you getting the population numbers from?

 

[huskymedic]

What you missed in your casual analysis is how intensively the two states gets recruited. While FL is significantly more worked over by recruiters enjoying the beaches, golf and bars.

Plus, I believe your math is wrong. See my post on that.

What are you talking about?

I posted two tweets from national college football writers - I did no math anywhere.

 

[Chief00]

What are you talking about?

I posted two tweets from national college football writers - I did no math anywhere.

From what I can see reading the thread I responded to @Scrutiner about the math calculation and @huskymedic about how you should factor in how intensely both states gets recruited if the ratio of players per population was even. While my math clearly shows GA holds a slight talent edge per capita, I believe if you could measure days a coach spent in a state recruiting, it would be even more of a gap. But, I don’t believe we have the data to prove that either way. My gut is telling me, Randy is making the right move.
Sports writers are not known for their math skills. Based on the data provided on NFL players and 2018 estimated population figures Chief correctly did the calculation.

 

[formerlurker]

chief polluting multiple boards now?

 

[huskymedic]

What are you talking about?

I posted two tweets from national college football writers - I did no math anywhere.

From what I can see reading the thread I responded to @Scrutiner about the math calculation and @huskymedic about how you should factor in how intensely both states gets recruited if the ratio of players per population was even.

You reading comprehension is coming into play again...

... and while your math calculations may be correct (I didn't check to be honest) - I'm not sure what per capita/ratio of players per population has to do w/ anything since over half the population in each state is female and everyone in the NFL is male).

 

[Chief00]

You reading comprehension is coming into play again...

View attachment 46342

... and while your math calculations may be correct (I didn't check to be honest) - I'm not sure what per capita/ratio of players per population has to do w/ anything since over half the population in each state is female and everyone in the NFL is male).

You are a little sensitive but I see now the sentence that set you off. My reply to the other poster dealt with the math and i should have specified his handle name again but that throw away last line was meant for him.
At any rate, my math is correct as is my point.

 

[huskymedic]

You are a little sensitive but I see now the sentence that set you off.

The only thing that set me off is you being a continual bullschlit slinger... if you said "oops - my bad" I would have moved on despite your condescending pompous "casual" comment.

 

[Chief00]

... and while your math calculations may be correct (I didn't check to be honest) - I'm not sure what per capita/ratio of players per population has to do w/ anything since over half the population in each state is female and everyone in the NFL is male).

You are really getting silly now about the data sets. The best population to measure would be high school age boys in those two states, who attend school. However, I don’t have that data and the total population is a decent but imperfect proxy. There will likely be a greater difference in sex in the general population because women have longer life expectancies. That factor (men dying off first) doesn’t materially come into play at HS age - so the HS population is closer to a 50/50 split than the general population. So if anything that factor would support my finding further although without additional work I can’t quantify that variable with precision.
And if anyone should say “my bad” - it’s the guy wrong about the number results - who continues the argument on things that have nothing to do with the GA vs FL recruiting question.

 

[formerlurker]

 

[huskymedic]

You are really getting silly now about the data sets. The best population to measure would be high school age boys in those two states, who attend school. However, I don’t have that data and the total population is a decent but imperfect proxy. There will likely be a greater difference in sex in the general population because women have longer life expectancies. That factor (men dying off first) doesn’t materially come into play at HS age - so the HS population is closer to a 50/50 split than the general population. So if anything that factor would support my finding further although without additional work I can’t quantify that variable with precision.

*Percentage derived from the number of D1 MFB recruits from 2014-2017 divided by the number of boys football participants 2016-2017 as reported by the National Federation of State High School Associations*

 

[Chief00]

*Percentage derived from the number of D1 MFB recruits from 2014-2017 divided by the number of boys football participants 2016-2017 as reported by the National Federation of State High School Associations*

Thanks for sharing but this is a different metric than what started this discussion. That was guys who made the NFL, this is guys who are D1 recruits. In my opinion, I like the NFL metric better since that’s purely about talent. A state may have more D1 recruits as a combination of talent and a territory that gets worked the hardest by coaching staffs. As I said some coaches may be influenced to recruit FL because they like to travel there. At any rate, they are top states in either metric.

My other other observation is based on the metric you just shared, CT (3.9) is a better D1 football recruiting state than TX (2.9) by a lot. Somehow that probably doesn’t ring true. Whereas using the NFL players metric, TX probably has a lot more even after correcting for population differences.
Probably the reason why the result in your last metric is not optimal is that nearly every TX HS boy wants to be on the football team (even kids with little talent) while in CT many towns and cities struggle to field a full squad. Marginal kids don’t bother.

 

[Scrutineer]

LOL - where are you getting the population numbers from?

They're not the population of each state.
They're the ratio of the number of residents per state to the number of NFL players per state. I added the percentage difference also which clearly shows GA has a 14.3% higher ratio of NFL players.

 

[Scrutineer]

Indeed, when you factor the population 21M FL to 10.5M GA, the two states turn out about the same % of NFL players per capita. Both states are heavily recruited but more coaches like going to FL. Just human nature. So GA is a relative better investment of time and energy.

GA produces 14.3% more NFL players per capita. The source can't be questioned as it's my previous post.

 

[Chief00]

GA produces 14.3% more NFL players per capita. The source can't be questioned as it's my previous post.

So going full cycle - you agree with Chief you get more value for your time in GA compared to FL.

 

[huskymedic]

GA produces 14.3% more NFL players per capita. The source can't be questioned as it's my previous post.

So going full cycle - you agree with Chief you get more value for your time in GA compared to FL.

It would depend on what year as the numbers continually fluctuate year to year as players flow on and off rosters. Different methodologies will produce different results. While using total state population is easy - somewhere/somehow you have to factor in high school football participation by state for a full picture of future opportunities. Follow the talent.

2018

NFL Players Per State Per Capita - Southeast Is King

To determine the top football baby factories, cleveland.com tabulated state totals for where NFL players were born and then calculated a ranking -- based on a ratio of current players from each state to births in the early 1990s when a big share of today's players were born. The top five states a...

floridahsfootball.com

Rank	State	Ratio (y)	NFL Players (x)
1	Florida	1 in 4,095	201​
2	Georgia	1 in 4,132	114​
3	South Carolina	1 in 4,745	51​
4	Alabama	1 in 4,818	55​
5	Louisiana	1 in 5,017	60​

 

[Chief00]

Agree, the numbers are moving targets as are the related ratios. Interesting as expected TX has 154 NFL guys compared to 10 for CT - yet CT was rated 2.9 in a metric compared to 3.8 for CT. I think the reason is due to higher participation rate due to football culture and less soccer moms.

 

[Scrutineer]

So going full cycle - you agree with Chief you get more value for your time in GA compared to FL.

You've worked hard to remain mysterious and anonymous, but with this thread it appears you've slipped and revealed your true identity.................. Joe30330.

Look back at what I said when you were challenged about GA vs. FL. I provided well thought out and accurate data supporting what you were saying. GA is loaded with great athletes in many sports, just ask Ricky, Jeremy and Alterique.

 

[Meego1963]

I hope uconn can get good player's from both states and all the states there recruiting this weekend ct included