ncaa prediction? seeds

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I admire anyone who doesn’t see a 4v13 seed loss as a foregone conclusion’s optimism. Team took 10 steps back last night and exhibited all The classic negative Hurley things.

 

[homunculus]

I admire anyone who doesn’t see a 4v13 seed loss as a foregone conclusion’s optimism. Team took 10 steps back last night and exhibited all The classic negative Hurley things.

Wait. They “took 10 steps back” which caused them to lose to one of the best teams in the nation by 2. That’s quite the ceiling.

Anything can happen in the tournament. UConn has proved that over the years for better and for worse. I’m going to enjoy the ride and if they flame out early I’ll be disappointed but it will have absolutely nothing to do with the doom and gloom prognostication here. It will simply be because it’s incredibly rare to go deep in the tournament, no matter how good you are. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[willie99]

Probably a 4, and no one seed wants us in their bracket

If Marquette wins the BET and is awarded a 2, we may sneak into a 3 depending on how things play out.

 

[auror]

I’d rather have a 4 in the east than a 3 somewhere else

We could still get Albany as a 3 elsewhere though. I'd rather have Albany than MSG if I had to choose one, because we NEED to win the first 2.

 

[UconnFanDC]

4

 

[Avon]

Wait. They “took 10 steps back” which caused them to lose to one of the best teams in the nation by 2. That’s quite the ceiling.

Anything can happen in the tournament. UConn has proved that over the years for better and for worse. I’m going to enjoy the ride and if they flame out early I’ll be disappointed but it will have absolutely nothing to do with the doom and gloom prognostication here. It will simply be because it’s incredibly rare to go deep in the tournament, no matter how good you are. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's not incredibly rare at all
Lest you forget...

 

[gampelcrazies]

We could still get Albany as a 3 elsewhere though. I'd rather have Albany than MSG if I had to choose one, because we NEED to win the first 2.

Very true but I have a feeling we get to the sweet sixteen so why not get greedy

 

[auror]

Tennessee and some of the B12 teams losing is good, unfortunately we lost and all the teams on the 4 line that we've been competing with for that now available 3 seed (and also Albany) are still alive and won last night (Xavier, Indiana, Virginia). Increasingly likely one of them passes us. Our KPI took a big hit with that loss (partially because 3 of those teams directly behind us won and passed us.). Creighton fell out of Q1A with their big margin loss.

	UConn	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
Record	25-8	25-8	22-10	25-6
NET	8	19	27	23
Predict Ave	5	14	20	24
Resume Ave	16.5	15.5	17	15
SoS (non-conf)	41 (92)	35 (48)	12 (101)	75 (39)
Q1 (Q1A)	7-6 (3-4)	9-5 (4-4)	6-8 (4-6)	5-4 (1-2)
Q2	6-1	4-2	6-2	6-1
Q1+2	13-7	13-7	12-10	11-5
Bad Losses	1	1	0	1
Away/Neutral	10-6	10-6	7-8	10-5

I think we're still on top of this group, but it's tight with Xavier and their strong Q1 record. Any further wins that close the predictive gap and improve their Q1 and resume metrics could be bad. We should root pretty strongly for Marquette over Xavier and Penn State over Indiana. We want Duke over Virginia, too, but Duke is unfortunately knocking on the doorstop now too.

If they beat Virginia (metrics estimated with slight bump from today's averages)

	Duke
Record	26-8
NET	~15
Predict Ave	~18
Resume Ave	~17.5
Sos (Non-conf)	60 (63)
Q1 (Q1A)	5-6 (1-4)
Q2	7-2
Q1+2	12-8
Bad losses	0
Away/Neutral	9-8

 

[Hunt for 7]

Probably a 4, and no one seed wants us in their bracket

If Marquette wins the BET and is awarded a 2, we may sneak into a 3 depending on how things play out.

Why wouldn’t a one seed want us in their bracket? We can’t win close games and we ain’t blowing out any 1,2 or 3 seeds. I think you may be overstating how much teams fear us. But Ibwill say Marquette acted like they won the NCAA championship with how happy they were. They came in with a chip on their shoulder feeling like they were being dissed and it worked. Remember how well JC played the us agaisnt the world motivation…. Shaka took one from that playbook.

 

[gmc1055]

Just about everyone Uconn is competing with for the 3 or 4 line is not gonna win their tournament. I predict a 3.

 

[auror]

Tennessee and some of the B12 teams losing is good, unfortunately we lost and all the teams on the 4 line that we've been competing with for that now available 3 seed (and also Albany) are still alive and won last night (Xavier, Indiana, Virginia). Increasingly likely one of them passes us. Our KPI took a big hit with that loss (partially because 3 of those teams directly behind us won and passed us.). Creighton fell out of Q1A with their big margin loss.

	UConn	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
Record	25-8	25-8	22-10	25-6
NET	8	19	27	23
Predict Ave	5	14	20	24
Resume Ave	16.5	15.5	17	15
SoS (non-conf)	41 (92)	35 (48)	12 (101)	75 (39)
Q1 (Q1A)	7-6 (3-4)	9-5 (4-4)	6-8 (4-6)	5-4 (1-2)
Q2	6-1	4-2	6-2	6-1
Q1+2	13-7	13-7	12-10	11-5
Bad Losses	1	1	0	1
Away/Neutral	10-6	10-6	7-8	10-5

I think we're still on top of this group, but it's tight with Xavier and their strong Q1 record. Any further wins that close the predictive gap and improve their Q1 and resume metrics could be bad. We should root pretty strongly for Marquette over Xavier and Penn State over Indiana. We want Duke over Virginia, too, but Duke is unfortunately knocking on the doorstop now too.

If they beat Virginia (metrics estimated with slight bump from today's averages)

	Duke
Record	26-8
NET	~15
Predict Ave	~18
Resume Ave	~17.5
Sos (Non-conf)	60 (63)
Q1 (Q1A)	5-6 (1-4)
Q2	7-2
Q1+2	12-8
Bad losses	0
Away/Neutral	9-8

Should also note that Xavier sweeping us may come into play if we're literally next to each other on the seedline. I'm guessing Xavier may get the 3 instead of us at this point, barring a bad loss today against Marquette.

 

[Yankees32123]

Solid 4 in the East, maybe the last 3. Either way, get to the Sweet 16. Have to do it. Then who knows what could happen.

 

[UConnRock]

3 if Marquette wins, 4 if Xavier wins. Committee will not make 3 BE teams 3 seeds and Xavier will jump UConn for the other 3 if they win

 

[BGesus4]

I want to say 3 but based on the early bracket reveal thing, it doesn’t appear like the committee will give the big East much respect…so I’d guess a 4

 

[mauconnfan]

There are a lot of good mid major offensive teams. Hurley us going to need to get these guys ready to defend. Sanogo should be able to eat down low. AJax and Hawk needs to respond big time, because their combined performance was unacceptable. As you said, put up or shut up time for Hurley. We’re a darling pick to go to the FF/win it all from a ton of analysts. 2 wins is bare minimum.

Yeah agree watching some games with teams potentially in the 12/13 range and some of them are very dangerous. With our pattern thus far of tightness this team needs to play every team like we are the underdogs.

 

[navery12]

One thing to keep in mind, the committee has shown in the past Saturday games don't matter, and Friday games may not even matter either. So a 2 point loss to Marquette likely had very little effect (and even if they're watching, it shouldn't move us down)

 

[Brochacho]

I think its Baylor or Marquette for the last 2 seed. I think Gonzaga is a solid 3. Kansas State, Tennessee, UConn and Xavier are going to make up the final two 3s and I honestly have no clue how the committee handles it.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Should be a 3 seed, hopefully in the East.

There's a tremendous amount of pressure on Hurley now to perform in this tournament. He's got the program in a great place where we're better each season, recruiting is humming, and a top 10-15 team nationally...

The elephant in the room is no Big East regular season titles, no Big East tournament titles, and no NCAA tournament wins. He's getting a rep/already has a rep as not being a big game coach. He can change all that the next week+. Things are going to get kind of ugly if we don't make it out of the first weekend, so let's make sure we do.

I barely participated in the threads last night because there were so many bad takes. This is a great take.
We are way better than last year: maybe the records are W-L is similar but it'd just be contrarian for the sake of it to say we aren't a legit force.

Here's my question for you: will you be satisfied with a sweet 16? I know we want the final four, but sweet 16 as a 3 seed (which I think is pretty accurate for this team) is right where we should be. Most are agreeing but let's see if they want him run out of town if we don't make E8.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Wait. They “took 10 steps back” which caused them to lose to one of the best teams in the nation by 2. That’s quite the ceiling.

Anything can happen in the tournament. UConn has proved that over the years for better and for worse. I’m going to enjoy the ride and if they flame out early I’ll be disappointed but it will have absolutely nothing to do with the doom and gloom prognostication here. It will simply be because it’s incredibly rare to go deep in the tournament, no matter how good you are. Nothing more, nothing less.

You nailed it. The phrase used to be "misery loves company" it morphed into "they're deep in their feelings" but either way you cut it, by Monday they'll be fine

 

[storrsroars]

On Bracketmatrix, as of 10:30am, 32 bracketologist have already updated. Half (16) have UConn as 3, the other half as a 4. But only 14 have Tennessee as a 3, with 18 seeding them as a 4. K-State firmly entrenched as a 3.

Pitt and ASU look to be clinging to the play-in game. Vandy, OSU and UAB could put Pitt/ASU on the wrong side. And hell, Cincy is still in this thing if they somehow upset Houston.

 

[superjohn]

I barely participated in the threads last night because there were so many bad takes. This is a great take.
We are way better than last year: maybe the records are W-L is similar but it'd just be contrarian for the sake of it to say we aren't a legit force.

Here's my question for you: will you be satisfied with a sweet 16? I know we want the final four, but sweet 16 as a 3 seed (which I think is pretty accurate for this team) is right where we should be. Most are agreeing but let's see if they want him run out of town if we don't make E8.

Yes I'll be satisfied with a sweet 16, I've said that all season but that needs to be the minimum with this team. That would at least be a next step and take a bunch of the pressure off. If that doesn't happen, the pressure to win next season will be insane and there will be a ton of talk about if we need to go in a different direction.

 

[BFieldHusky]

3.53 on Bracket Matrix.

We really need Marquette to beat Xavier tonight.

 

[ElGreco]

Feels like we're so ripe for getting picked off 1st round again by some NM State-ish team because we'll be terrified to be trapped in another close game. Best thing they can do is use this loss tonight to motivate them to play lights out next weekend.

Prediction: Final Four. I’m disappointed but highly optimistic.

 

[BrysonDeMan]

If we won tonight we could have been a 3. Feeling 4 in the east

any 1 seed you are really scared of though .... this is the year a 4 seed can thrive

 

[BrysonDeMan]

Wait. They “took 10 steps back” which caused them to lose to one of the best teams in the nation by 2. That’s quite the ceiling.

Anything can happen in the tournament. UConn has proved that over the years for better and for worse. I’m going to enjoy the ride and if they flame out early I’ll be disappointed but it will have absolutely nothing to do with the doom and gloom prognostication here. It will simply be because it’s incredibly rare to go deep in the tournament, no matter how good you are. Nothing more, nothing less.

and seem to play well against teams that haven't seen us