I broke this down in another thread, but here's my analysis of our schedule. It's hard to gauge how good a team will be because of the portal but here we go:
1. MUST WINS (5): Merrimack, Buffalo, Temple, Rice, UMass. These are teams we should definitely beat, because they're not good. It would be a giant disappointment if we don't beat all of these teams.
2. EXPECTED WINS (2): FAU, UAB. These are teams we can beat if we are much improved from last year, which I believe (and hope) we are. It would be disappointing to lose these, but not horribly embarrassing like the MUST WINS.
3. LEGITIMATE SHOTS (2): Wake, Ga State. I think we can beat these two teams, but I'm not expecting it.
4. LONGSHOTS (3): Maryland, Duke, Syracuse. These are Ls. None of these are like Tennessee last year or Michigan the year before, so I don't quite give these a zero chance. If we have a magical season, and they have bad games, maybe, just maybe we can pick one of these off, but it's a fool's bet.
Therefore:
7 wins is a successful season to me.
8-9 wins and we've made real progress as a program.
10+ wins and we should pinch ourselves.
But...
5-6 wins is mildly disappointing.
<5 wins is a disaster.
Now my predictions:
08/31 - at Maryland - L
09/07 – Merrimack - W
09/14 - at Duke - L
09/21 - Florida Atlantic - W
09/28 - Buffalo - W
10/05 - Temple - W
10/19 - Wake Forest - W
10/26 - Rice - W
11/01 - Georgia State - L
11/09 - at UAB - W
11/23 - at Syracuse - L
11/30 - at UMass - W
We will go 8-4. Pretty good.
