If Wales beats Iran + we lose to England, need:
- Beat Iran + Wales lose to England + win on GD
If Wales draws Iran + we lose to England, need:
- Beat Iran + Wales draw or lose to England, OR
- Draw Iran + Wales lose to England + beat Wales and Iran on GD
If Wales beats Iran + we draw England, need:
- Beat Iran + England/Wales does not end in a draw OR beat Wales or England on GD (whoever beats Iran by most, basically)
If Wales draws Iran + we draw England, need:
- Beat Iran, OR
- Draw Iran + Wales lose to England, OR
- Draw Iran + Wales draw England + beat Wales on GD
The latter two are much, much more straightforward. If we can get even one point off of England, this becomes much easier.