Wins needed to make 2021 NCAA tourney

[huskymedic]

Big East standings headed in the upcoming Saint John's series:

Standings by Win% here.

@ucjoet hope all is well?

 

[ucjoet]

Huskymedic, I appreciate you asking. All is well, just incredibly busy at work, and did have a my 6 month checkup for a previous medical procedure. I was a little preoccupied / nervous about results , but everything came back fine. Thanks for thinking of me.

I was going to update chart a few times, but games kept getting canceled or added. Made it difficult to update chart properly. I will take a look before St. Johns series, and update / revise chart.

I have been following team, mostly by updates on Boneyard game threads. I greatly appreciate all posters that take time to post. Keeps me updated. Thank You.

Go Huskies !!!!

 

[huskymedic]

Huskymedic, I appreciate you asking. All is well, just incredibly busy at work, and did have a my 6 month checkup for a previous medical procedure. I was a little preoccupied / nervous about results , but everything came back fine. Thanks for thinking of me.

I was going to update chart a few times, but games kept getting canceled or added. Made it difficult to update chart properly. I will take a look before St. Johns series, and update / revise chart.

I have been following team, mostly by updates on Boneyard game threads. I greatly appreciate all posters that take time to post. Keeps me updated. Thank You.

Go Huskies !!!!

Good to hear all is well on the health front. The other option was you absconded to Italy again and forgot to tell us ?

 

[ucjoet]

Good to hear all is well on the health front. The other option was you absconded to Italy again and forgot to tell us ?

Maybe, we get Coach Penders to schedule an away 10 day series with some Italian colleges. Will not help our RPI, but some of us Boneyarders will have a blast. ??

 

[huskymedic]

Updated projection from D1Baseball: Another week, another region.

D1Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 27 • D1Baseball

The latest projections have some notable movements with Texas moving in as a top eight national seed, and Nebraska, Pittsburgh and Charlotte becoming Top 16s.

d1baseball.com

1. (15) Pittsburgh
2. Oregon State
3. Connecticut*
4. LaSalle*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech down to a 2 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed & Northeastern - 4 seed.

Region remains the same but D1 swaps out Oregon State for UCLA

Projected Field Of 64: May 4 • D1Baseball

Our latest projections are out, and while Arizona moves in as a top-eight national seed, there are a whopping four new regional hosts in our latest projections.

d1baseball.com

1. (15) Pittsburgh
2. UCLA
3. Connecticut*
4. LaSalle*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (9) back up to National seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed & Northeastern - 4 seed. Virginia in the “First 5 Out” group.

 

[huskymedic]

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (4/21/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with Selection Monday under six weeks away.

www.baseballamerica.com

Baseball America moves us to a different Region this week:

1. (14) South Carolina ^ @ Columbia S.C.
2. Pittsburgh
3. Liberty*
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 11 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and Northeastern- 4 seed. UVA is still in the “First Four Out” grouping.

Another week, another Region from Baseball America.

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/5/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with less than a month to go until Selection Monday.

www.baseballamerica.com

1. (16) Charlotte @ Charlotte, NC
2. South Carolina
3. Miami
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 14 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and Northeastern- 4 seed. UVA is still in the “First 4 Out” grouping.

 

[ucjoet]

Sorry for not updating in a bit. I revised chart below and broke out last 14 games into 7 game intermediate goals. There is a list of the teams we have remaining, with their RPI's. I am hoping for no more cancellations, and also hoping my calculations below are correct. With all the cancellations and postponements, I am not sure.

Go Huskies !!!

Teams
Northeastern - 38
URI - 53
Villanova - 80
Seton Hall - 114
St. Johns - 194

Intermediate Goals
5 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( next 7)
5 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 7)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England
4 - 2 / .667 ......... 13- 5 / .722 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 20 - 14 / .588 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 48 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 4th - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 108

 

[businesslawyer]

Between the lost games, the move to the Big East and the disappointing start, all anyone can do is guess what would be enough to get an at large bid to the Tourney. But I'm not at all confident that 10-4 would get it done. I'd feel a lot better squeezing one more win out of the last 14. And road games or not, St Johns by computers is the worst team we have left. It really needs to be time we put it together and sweep a 4 game series. (and yes, I know that's not easy but given our early season start we need to show that we are above the league we're playing in).

 

[ucjoet]

Great comeback / gutty win last night. Pitching was superb, and KFed comes thru again.

We now sit at 21 - 14 for a .600 winning percentage. That is first time all year, we are at that level. After the start we had, that is not bad. Lets keep it going today.

Go Huskies !!!

Teams
Northeastern - 38
URI - 53
Villanova - 80
Seton Hall - 114
St. Johns - 194

Intermediate Goals
5 - 2 / 1 - 0 ( next 7)
5 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 7)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England
5 - 2 / .714 ......... 13- 5 / .722 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 21 - 14 / .600 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 43 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 116

 

[ucjoet]

Always difficult to sweep a doubleheader or sweep a series. But with the hole we dug ourselves and with games running out, we really need a win today. I hate stating a game is a must win, but we can't afford going 2-2 vs a St. John's team with an RPI of 206. Also (in general) playing out of conference New England games hurt our RPI. But the highest ( by far) RPI games we have left are vs NU and URI. Those games can actually really help us. This is when being in Big East vs AAC hurts us.

Joe Simione has been given a lot of opportunities this year, lets hope today is the day he shows his real potential. It would be a huge game for him and team.

Happy Mothers Day to all the Lady Husky baseball fans.

Go Huskies !!!

Teams
Northeastern - 34
URI - 68
Villanova - 99
Seton Hall - 117
St. Johns - 206

Intermediate Goals
5 - 2 / 2 - 1 ( next 7)
5 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 7)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England
6 - 3 / .667 ......... 13- 5 / .722 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 22 - 15 / .595 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 45 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 119

 

[huskymedic]

Welp... that doesn’t help the RPI (Northeastern currently @ #34).

 

[huskymedic]

Big East standings after the weekend...

Seton Hall has series against Creighton and UConn left

Creighton has series against Seton Hall and Xavier

UConn has series against Villanova (*3 gm) and Seton Hall left

Xavier has series against Georgetown and Creighton

*Villanova has only been playing 3 games series.

 

[HookC22]

Big East standings after the weekend...

View attachment 67351

Seton Hall has series against Creighton and UConn left

Creighton has series against Seton Hall and Xavier

UConn has series against Villanova (*3 gm) and Seton Hall left

Xavier has series against Georgetown and Creighton

*Villanova has only been playing 3 games series.

How has Villanova only been playing three game series?

 

[huskymedic]

How has Villanova only been playing three game series?

It started w/ the conference opening series w/ Creighton due to minimum number of available Nova players and has continued each week since...

 

[huskymedic]

Jumped up 4 spots week over week... currently @ #45

D1Baseball's RPI Nitty Gritty

Follow along with the most accurate college baseball RPI updated daily as the Road to Omaha continues.

d1baseball.com

 

[Rocko52]

Between the lost games, the move to the Big East and the disappointing start, all anyone can do is guess what would be enough to get an at large bid to the Tourney. But I'm not at all confident that 10-4 would get it done. I'd feel a lot better squeezing one more win out of the last 14. And road games or not, St Johns by computers is the worst team we have left. It really needs to be time we put it together and sweep a 4 game series. (and yes, I know that's not easy but given our early season start we need to show that we are above the league we're playing in).

I'm new to following NCAA Baseball this year. Is it unrealistic/not how it works that UConn goes into the Big East Tournament and wins, which gets an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament? Do some conferences only sometimes get their champions an automatic bid, or what? Are the odds of winning the Conference's automatic spot that low?

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm new to following NCAA Baseball this year. Is it unrealistic/not how it works that UConn goes into the Big East Tournament and wins, which gets an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament? Do some conferences only sometimes get their champions an automatic bid, or what? Are the odds of winning the Conference's automatic spot that low?

The Big East tourney winner gets an automatic bid. It’s like basketball in that all conference champions get in, no matter how their regular seasons were. I think UConn will have a better chance to win the tournament than anyone else. But in a four-team, double elimination tournament with the four best teams in a conference, the best team won’t always win. In any conference.

 

[dbmill]

As with any post season baseball conference tournament, the real key is to stay in the winners bracket for as long as possible. Staying in the winners bracket helps to keep the pitching staff on the fresher, less used side. When UConn was in the AAC, this was especially important in their 8 team tournament. With the four team set up that the Big East has, there are less games to be played, so it probably is not as paramount. Still staying in the winners bracket certainly has its advantages. If UConn's Pat Gallagher continues to grow into showing he is a reliable starting pitcher, that will really help UConn's chances in the Big East tournament.

 

[Rocko52]

In MLB I always wished that post-season besides just the World Series would have 5-7 game series. Obviously that's a lot, but you just can't really tell the best team with a best of 2 or 3, especially not 1. But yeah, I don't really follow any other sports but have been having a lot of fun following the Hook C this season so far. Hoping to see us keep up the momentum and fight all the way through!

 

[HookC22]

In MLB I always wished that post-season besides just the World Series would have 5-7 game series. Obviously that's a lot, but you just can't really tell the best team with a best of 2 or 3, especially not 1. But yeah, I don't really follow any other sports but have been having a lot of fun following the Hook C this season so far. Hoping to see us keep up the momentum and fight all the way through!

I agree. But there really is no other option in college baseball for conference tournaments. The timeline is too short. For the top conferences (including the American) it isn't as big of an issue because the strength of the conference will get multiple teams in and they sometimes get lucky if one of the "on the bubble" teams win their tournament. For the Big East, it is looking like a one bid league unfortunately.

The conference tournament takes 5+ games on back to back games and maybe a double header out of the losers bracket. I don't have a real problem with this, like I said above, there's really no other option to get a tournament done in one week. The issue I have is that the entire regular season is built around 3 game series (in most conferences) but then regionals are back to a double elimination set ups and the 3 game series doesn't come back until the super regionals. I wish they would extend the play offs one extra weekend and make the regionals 3 game series at 32 sites at the higher seed. Would also increase the reach of the play offs and spread it to so many more locations. The College World Series also has some double elimination but again, not sure how to get around that without extending the set up to 3 weekends.

 

[ucjoet]

OK, more changes to schedule. NU cancelled, and I did not realize Villanova is only playing 3 games per weekend. So that leaves us with 8 regular season games. Everyone here realizes the chart below is to see if we are on track for an At Large Bid. Obviously if we win BE tourney, we are in. So with that said, below is another intermediate goal. If we reach this goal, I believe we will be in conversation for an At Large. Not definite, because BE may only get 1 bid. But I think if anyone is to get a 2nd bid, it would be us. We have best RPI in conference, and our early season schedule was very demanding.

I am assuming we lose in championship game of BE tourney, with a 3-2 record. In last 8 games we need to go a minimum of 6 - 2. If this happens, we would end up being 32 - 19 with a winning percentage of .627. I think if we were in AAC, we would be in, but we are not. It really hurt us losing all those winnable games due to Covid. That would have been an opportunity to improve our resume.

Again, I have no more insight ( maybe less) then anyone else on this board. These are just my thoughts. Interested in seeing what everyone else thinks.

Teams
URI - 68
Villanova - 99
Seton Hall - 117

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
7 - 3 / .700 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 15 / .605 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 45 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 122

 

[businesslawyer]

OK, more changes to schedule. NU cancelled, and I did not realize Villanova is only playing 3 games per weekend. So that leaves us with 8 regular season games. Everyone here realizes the chart below is to see if we are on track for an At Large Bid. Obviously if we win BE tourney, we are in. So with that said, below is another intermediate goal. If we reach this goal, I believe we will be in conversation for an At Large. Not definite, because BE may only get 1 bid. But I think if anyone is to get a 2nd bid, it would be us. We have best RPI in conference, and our early season schedule was very demanding.

I am assuming we lose in championship game of BE tourney, with a 3-2 record. In last 8 games we need to go a minimum of 6 - 2. If this happens, we would end up being 32 - 19 with a winning percentage of .627. I think if we were in AAC, we would be in, but we are not. It really hurt us losing all those winnable games due to Covid. That would have been an opportunity to improve our resume.

Again, I have no more insight ( maybe less) then anyone else on this board. These are just my thoughts. Interested in seeing what everyone else thinks.

Teams
URI - 68
Villanova - 99
Seton Hall - 117

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
7 - 3 / .700 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 15 / .605 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 45 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 122

There is far, far less science about the baseball bubble than the basketball bubble, and even the science is less meaningful this year due to the pandemic and us taking a giant leap down in conference affiliation. (And sorry, anyone who thinks the move to the Big East is good for baseball I just don't understand. In the AAC we could have much more easily overcome our sluggish start).

I think we're like 2-8 against Quad 1 opponents? The only way to overcome that is a gaudy win-loss record against the crap we've played since the conference schedule began. I think 6-2 is the minimum we need to end the regular season on the right side of the bubble. I'd be more confident at 7-1. And I'd be much more confident had we found a way to eliminate some of our mistakes and come out of Lubbock with one damn win.

 

[huskymedic]

Region remains the same but D1 swaps out Oregon State for UCLA

Projected Field Of 64: May 4 • D1Baseball

Our latest projections are out, and while Arizona moves in as a top-eight national seed, there are a whopping four new regional hosts in our latest projections.

d1baseball.com

1. (15) Pittsburgh
2. UCLA
3. Connecticut*
4. LaSalle*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (9) back up to National seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed & Northeastern - 4 seed. Virginia in the “First 5 Out” group.

D1Baseball’s latest projection has UConn headed west (not necessarily a bad thing):

Projected Field Of 64: May 11 • D1Baseball

Our latest Field of 64 is out, and there's a brand new regional host, while the order of the top eight national seeds has changed.

d1baseball.com

1. Stanford (9)
2. Nevada*
3. UC Irvine*
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (10) national seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed. Virginia still in the “First 5 Out” group.

 

[huskymedic]

Another week, another Region from Baseball America.

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/5/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with less than a month to go until Selection Monday.

www.baseballamerica.com

1. (16) Charlotte @ Charlotte, NC
2. South Carolina
3. Miami
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 14 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and Northeastern- 4 seed. UVA is still in the “First 4 Out” grouping.

Onto to possible rematch w/ Texas Tech in Lubbock?

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/12/21)

Ted Cahill updates his latest projected College Baseball Tournament bracket ahead of Selection Monday.

www.baseballamerica.com

1. Texas Tech (10)
2. UCLA
3. Miami
4. UConn*

Other teams of note: USM - 2 seed, UVA - 3 seed and Bryant - 4 seed

 

[huskymedic]

This goes along w/ the BaseballAmerica and D1Baseball Regional Projections: