Wins needed to make 2021 NCAA tourney | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Wins needed to make 2021 NCAA tourney

OK, more changes to schedule. NU cancelled, and I did not realize Villanova is only playing 3 games per weekend. So that leaves us with 8 regular season games. Everyone here realizes the chart below is to see if we are on track for an At Large Bid. Obviously if we win BE tourney, we are in. So with that said, below is another intermediate goal. If we reach this goal, I believe we will be in conversation for an At Large. Not definite, because BE may only get 1 bid. But I think if anyone is to get a 2nd bid, it would be us. We have best RPI in conference, and our early season schedule was very demanding.

I am assuming we lose in championship game of BE tourney, with a 3-2 record. In last 8 games we need to go a minimum of 6 - 2. If this happens, we would end up being 32 - 19 with a winning percentage of .627. I think if we were in AAC, we would be in, but we are not. It really hurt us losing all those winnable games due to Covid. That would have been an opportunity to improve our resume.

Again, I have no more insight ( maybe less) then anyone else on this board. These are just my thoughts. Interested in seeing what everyone else thinks.

Teams
URI - 68
Villanova - 99
Seton Hall - 117

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
7 - 3 / .700 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 15 / .605 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 45 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 122
 
ucjoet said:
OK, more changes to schedule. NU cancelled, and I did not realize Villanova is only playing 3 games per weekend. So that leaves us with 8 regular season games. Everyone here realizes the chart below is to see if we are on track for an At Large Bid. Obviously if we win BE tourney, we are in. So with that said, below is another intermediate goal. If we reach this goal, I believe we will be in conversation for an At Large. Not definite, because BE may only get 1 bid. But I think if anyone is to get a 2nd bid, it would be us. We have best RPI in conference, and our early season schedule was very demanding.

I am assuming we lose in championship game of BE tourney, with a 3-2 record. In last 8 games we need to go a minimum of 6 - 2. If this happens, we would end up being 32 - 19 with a winning percentage of .627. I think if we were in AAC, we would be in, but we are not. It really hurt us losing all those winnable games due to Covid. That would have been an opportunity to improve our resume.

Again, I have no more insight ( maybe less) then anyone else on this board. These are just my thoughts. Interested in seeing what everyone else thinks.

Teams
URI - 68
Villanova - 99
Seton Hall - 117

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 0 - 0 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
7 - 3 / .700 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 15 / .605 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 45 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 122
Expand ...

There is far, far less science about the baseball bubble than the basketball bubble, and even the science is less meaningful this year due to the pandemic and us taking a giant leap down in conference affiliation. (And sorry, anyone who thinks the move to the Big East is good for baseball I just don't understand. In the AAC we could have much more easily overcome our sluggish start).

I think we're like 2-8 against Quad 1 opponents? The only way to overcome that is a gaudy win-loss record against the crap we've played since the conference schedule began. I think 6-2 is the minimum we need to end the regular season on the right side of the bubble. I'd be more confident at 7-1. And I'd be much more confident had we found a way to eliminate some of our mistakes and come out of Lubbock with one damn win.
 
huskymedic said:
Region remains the same but D1 swaps out Oregon State for UCLA

d1baseball.com

Projected Field Of 64: May 4 • D1Baseball

Our latest projections are out, and while Arizona moves in as a top-eight national seed, there are a whopping four new regional hosts in our latest projections.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

1. (15) Pittsburgh
2. UCLA
3. Connecticut*
4. LaSalle*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (9) back up to National seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed & Northeastern - 4 seed. Virginia in the “First 5 Out” group.
Expand ...

D1Baseball’s latest projection has UConn headed west (not necessarily a bad thing):

d1baseball.com

Projected Field Of 64: May 11 • D1Baseball

Our latest Field of 64 is out, and there's a brand new regional host, while the order of the top eight national seeds has changed.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

1. Stanford (9)
2. Nevada*
3. UC Irvine*
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (10) national seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed. Virginia still in the “First 5 Out” group.
 
huskymedic said:
Another week, another Region from Baseball America.

www.baseballamerica.com

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/5/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with less than a month to go until Selection Monday.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

1. (16) Charlotte @ Charlotte, NC
2. South Carolina
3. Miami
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 14 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and Northeastern- 4 seed. UVA is still in the “First 4 Out” grouping.
Expand ...

Onto to possible rematch w/ Texas Tech in Lubbock?

www.baseballamerica.com

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/12/21)

Ted Cahill updates his latest projected College Baseball Tournament bracket ahead of Selection Monday.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

1. Texas Tech (10)
2. UCLA
3. Miami
4. UConn*

Other teams of note: USM - 2 seed, UVA - 3 seed and Bryant - 4 seed
 
This goes along w/ the BaseballAmerica and D1Baseball Regional Projections:

 
We win another series and keep our At Large bid alive. I really think we are in the post season conversation, but we are hanging in by only a thread. Our RPI is at 39 (very good) and strength of schedule is 79 (good). I know some of us here think the only way we get into tourney is by winning the BE tournament. I am still holding out hope, that we get a bid if we go 4-1 to finish season and get to BE championship game.

That would leave us at

32 -19 - .627
RPI - probably in 40's
Top 2 - Big East

Also need to hope that there are not many upsets in conference tourneys, that may steal a bid or 2. I don't believe we have swept a whole week this year. What a perfect way to end regular season, but to go 5 - 0.


Go Huskies !!!


Teams
URI - 74
Seton Hall - 115

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 2 - 1 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
9 - 4 / .692 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 25 - 16 / .610 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 39 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 79
 
.-.
One thing that I hadn’t realized that gives me hope is the incredible differential between home games and road games. Yes, we always play more road games than home games because of the start of the season, but when you combine the fact that we were scheduled to have a 4 home game deficit in conference and the cancellations, we’re basically a 12-1 or so team at home and a .500 team on the road. Our win/loss percentage is artificially low because we’ve played to date over twice as many road games.

For that to be noticed, we have to dominate when we finally get back home next weekend.
 
ucjoet said:
We win another series and keep our At Large bid alive. I really think we are in the post season conversation, but we are hanging in by only a thread. Our RPI is at 39 (very good) and strength of schedule is 79 (good). I know some of us here think the only way we get into tourney is by winning the BE tournament. I am still holding out hope, that we get a bid if we go 4-1 to finish season and get to BE championship game.

That would leave us at

32 -19 - .627
RPI - probably in 40's
Top 2 - Big East

Also need to hope that there are not many upsets in conference tourneys, that may steal a bid or 2. I don't believe we have swept a whole week this year. What a perfect way to end regular season, but to go 5 - 0.


Go Huskies !!!


Teams
URI - 74
Seton Hall - 115

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 2 - 1 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
9 - 4 / .692 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 25 - 16 / .610 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 39 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 79
Expand ...

I agree, a 4-1 record for the coming week should be the goal. Need to beat Rhode Island on the road, and that won't be easy, as Rhode Island always has a competitive team, and UConn won't have a trusted established starter ready to go in this game. And as always, UConn needs to take the final Big East series against Seton Hall. While Seton Hall has a similar RPI to that of Villanova, that series won't offer the same potential RPI boost as the Villanova series since UConn will be playing that series at home. Never underestimate the RPI boost winning a series on the road against a competitive opponent.

UConn's pitching does worry me about the coming wee of games. Two of these games won't be started by Peterson, Casparius, or Gallagher, which pretty much means they come down to staff days, even on the game or games that Simeone is given to start. The problem with this is that given the number of games to be played, UConn does not have tremendous depth in terms of the guys coming out of the bullpen that have earned the real trust of the pitching staff. Combine this with only three effective starters, this could be a problem. 5 games in 5 days is going be something of a test for the pitching staff.

Not having tremendous trusted depth in the pitching staff is something of a byproduct of this Covid season, with all its stops and starts. Many midweek games have gone by the wayside and been cancelled, and those games were always to me a developmental tool for the young unestablished pitcher or someone like Dunlop looking to come back from a bad stretch of games. Instead of getting their feet wet in these games, these pitchers just don't get an opportunity to show what they can potentially do and establish game confidence for themselves.
 
Last edited:
businesslawyer said:
One thing that I hadn’t realized that gives me hope is the incredible differential between home games and road games. Yes, we always play more road games than home games because of the start of the season, but when you combine the fact that we were scheduled to have a 4 home game deficit in conference and the cancellations, we’re basically a 12-1 or so team at home and a .500 team on the road. Our win/loss percentage is artificially low because we’ve played to date over twice as many road games.

For that to be noticed, we have to dominate when we finally get back home next weekend.
Expand ...
The woulda, coulda, shoulda view (we actually dropped a spot to 40 since I did the cut/paste a few minutes ago)...

008.jpg
 
huskymedic said:
D1Baseball’s latest projection has UConn headed west (not necessarily a bad thing):

d1baseball.com

Projected Field Of 64: May 11 • D1Baseball

Our latest Field of 64 is out, and there's a brand new regional host, while the order of the top eight national seeds has changed.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

1. Stanford (9)
2. Nevada*
3. UC Irvine*
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (10) national seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed. Virginia still in the “First 5 Out” group.
Expand ...

D1Baseball still has UConn headed west but to a different region

d1baseball.com

Projected Field Of 64: May 18 • D1Baseball

We're less than two weeks away from Selection Monday, and the top-eight race is heating up, while we have two brand new hosts.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

1. Gonzaga (15 National seed)
2. Oregon State
3. North Carolina
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech (9) National seed. USM - 2 seed, Virginia - 3 seed and Bryant - 4 seed.
 
.-.
dbmill said:
I agree, a 4-1 record for the coming week should be the goal. Need to beat Rhode Island on the road, and that won't be easy, as Rhode Island always has a competitive team, and UConn won't have a trusted established starter ready to go in this game. And as always, UConn needs to take the final Big East series against Seton Hall. While Seton Hall has a similar RPI to that of Villanova, that series won't offer the same potential RPI boost as the Villanova series since UConn will be playing that series at home. Never underestimate the RPI boost winning a series on the road against a competitive opponent.

UConn's pitching does worry me about the coming wee of games. Two of these games won't be started by Peterson, Casparius, or Gallagher, which pretty much means they come down to staff days, even on the game or games that Simeone is given to start. The problem with this is that given the number of games to be played, UConn does not have tremendous depth in terms of the guys coming out of the bullpen that have earned the real trust of the pitching staff. Combine this with only three effective starters, this could be a problem. 5 games in 5 days is going be something of a test for the pitching staff.

Not having tremendous trusted depth in the pitching staff is something of a byproduct of this Covid season, with all its stops and starts. Many midweek games have gone by the wayside and been cancelled, and those games were always to me a developmental tool for the young unestablished pitcher or someone like Dunlop looking to come back from a bad stretch of games. Instead of getting their feet wet in these games, these pitchers just don't get an opportunity to show what they can potentially do and establish game confidence for themselves.
Expand ...
Yesterday was the first time we saw the committee approach. Might serve us well if we go deep in big east.
 
huskymedic said:
Onto to possible rematch w/ Texas Tech in Lubbock?

www.baseballamerica.com

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/12/21)

Ted Cahill updates his latest projected College Baseball Tournament bracket ahead of Selection Monday.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

1. Texas Tech (10)
2. UCLA
3. Miami
4. UConn*

Other teams of note: USM - 2 seed, UVA - 3 seed and Bryant - 4 seed
Expand ...

www.baseballamerica.com

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/19/21)

Selection Monday is less than two weeks away. Ted Cahill updates his latest projected College Baseball Tournament bracket.
www.baseballamerica.com www.baseballamerica.com

Onto to Ruston Louisiana this week;

1. LaTech (15 National seed)
2. Stanford
3. Tulane
4. UConn*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - #10 National seed, USM - 2 seed, UVA - 3 seed and Bryant - 4 seed
 
So we beat a good RPI team in URI away. Helped our RPI by moving it to 36. If we are to have any chance for an At large bid, I think we need to get at least 3 wins this weekend. That would have all our post season criteria section (below in chart) in green. If we then get to championship game, I think we are in. Maybe being overly optimistic but if the above happens we will have following accomplishments, and I think we deserve a bid.

(1) Top 2 ( possibly 1st) in BE regular season
(2) get to championship game of BE tourney
(3) a .627 winning percentage
(4) A strength of schedule in 90's
(5) RPI in 40's
(6) We are UConn and we do have a track record of doing well in NCAA

Teams Left
Seton Hall - 114

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 3 - 1 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
9 - 1 / .900 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
9 - 4 / .692 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 26 - 16 / .619 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 36 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 3rd - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 90
 



-> Mike W.: If you were a regional host, give us a couple of under-the-radar teams you would not want to see in your regional.

Aaron Fitt: I know Northeastern didn’t have a great weekend, but I still think that team’s dangerous. I can’t shake the feeling that UConn could wreck somebody’s dreams if they can get in. Wright State is dangerous as always. Liberty’s pitching and defense formula along with their experience makes that team very intriguing. <-
 
I can't help but think back to 2017 when UConn was 33-25, finished tied for 3rd in the AAC (4th ranked conference) and ended with an RPI of 38, but was jobbed by the NCAA who chose UCLA instead with a 30-25 record in the Pac-12 (5th ranked conference) and had a 52 RPI. The NCAA will do UConn no favors. I think they have to win the tourney to get in.
 
.-.
UCCornelius said:
I can't help but think back to 2017 when UConn was 33-25, finished tied for 3rd in the AAC (4th ranked conference) and ended with an RPI of 38, but was jobbed by the NCAA who chose UCLA instead with a 30-25 record in the Pac-12 (5th ranked conference) and had a 52 RPI. The NCAA will do UConn no favors. I think they have to win the tourney to get in.
Expand ...
No favors for UCONN until Mark Emert is no longer President of NCAA.
 
UCCornelius said:
I can't help but think back to 2017 when UConn was 33-25, finished tied for 3rd in the AAC (4th ranked conference) and ended with an RPI of 38, but was jobbed by the NCAA who chose UCLA instead with a 30-25 record in the Pac-12 (5th ranked conference) and had a 52 RPI. The NCAA will do UConn no favors. I think they have to win the tourney to get in.
Expand ...
Was that the year they were the first team out after several teams stole bids?
 
Had trouble with home computer this morning, so could not update chart. But always love winning first game of a series.
we are 27-16. - .627
35 in RPI
And 2nd in BE if you go by conference winning percentage ( behind Creighton)
That would make our chart all Green, for first time this year.

Big day today. Let’s keep it going.

Go Huskies !!!
 
One thing I love more then winning first game of series is winning first 2 games. Our RPI is at 32, and we technically are in first place in BEast by winning percentage. Creighton / Xavier game just started.
Going to game tomorrow and would love to be watching hoping for a sweep. Let’s keep it going this afternoon.

Gi Huskies!!!
 
ucjoet said:
Had trouble with home computer this morning, so could not update chart. But always love winning first game of a series.
we are 27-16. - .627
35 in RPI
And 2nd in BE if you go by conference winning percentage ( behind Creighton)
That would make our chart all Green, for first time this year.

Big day today. Let’s keep it going.

Go Huskies !!!
Expand ...
Our RPI with the second win today has somehow jumped up to 24. The question at the moment, pending not falling apart, should not be whether we’ve done enough for an at large bid. The question should be why we aren’t a 2 seed somewhere.

Win the conference tonight or tomorrow and I think the debate over whether we’re in should be over.
 
businesslawyer said:
Our RPI with the second win today has somehow jumped up to 24. The question at the moment, pending not falling apart, should not be whether we’ve done enough for an at large bid. The question should be why we aren’t a 2 seed somewhere.

Win the conference tonight or tomorrow and I think the debate over whether we’re in should be over.
Expand ...

I'm sure the the RPI will fluctuate a little bit with more results coming in tonight, but it is quite a jump, that is for sure.

One other plus in UConn's favor for possible at large bid is that while they did split the series with Xavier, the Huskies have not lost a Big East series this season.
 
.-.
The only thing I like better then winning first 2 games of a series, is winning first 3 games. Wow, we are really hitting our stride. Offense on fire, pitching very well (hardly used our bullpen). A win tomorrow would be huge. Would love to see us win tomorrow and then get to championship game of BE tourney. If we do that, it would be a crime if we don't get an At Large Bid.

I don't want to look ahead to possible NCAA seeding possibilities. I am Italian, and feel I would be jinxing team if I did that. Wife and I going to game tomorrow and greatly looking forward to it. Finally a LOT of Green in chart below.

Go Huskies !!! and Go Xavier

Teams Left
Seton Hall - 115

Intermediate Goals
6 - 2 / 6 - 1 ( last 8)
3 - 2 / 0 - 0 (BE tourney)

current record........... season goal
8 - 11 / .421 ........ 9 - 10 / .473% - Out of Conference
9 - 1 / .900 ......... 8 - 2 / .800 - New England
12 - 4 / .750 ......... 12- 5 / .706 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 29 - 16 / .644 ...... 32 - 20 / .615
(2) 24 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st - Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 62
 
.-.
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