Wins needed to make 2021 NCAA tourney

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... and it starts:



1. (15) Pittsburgh^
2. Michigan*
3. Georgia
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 5 seed. USM - 3 seed, Coastal Carolina - 3 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and BC - 2 seed.
 
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Nice comeback victory. We are on a modest 3 game winning streak. Never easy to win a doubleheader, but man would that be nice. In the last 7 games we are averaging just under 8.5 runs per game. If we can keep this up, we should win a good majority of upcoming games.

I made a couple of changes to chart. For some reason I thought we were originally scheduled to play St. Joes 5 times. But I guess I was wrong. So I changed stats in "Over Top 15 (out of conf)" line. I also added the SOS as a line item.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 18-10 / .642 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 8 - 11 / .421 ...... 41 - 24 / .631
(2) 19 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 5
 
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Nice comeback victory. We are on a modest 3 game winning streak. Never easy to win a doubleheader, but man would that be nice. In the last 7 games we are averaging just under 8.5 runs per game. If we can keep this up, we should win a good majority of upcoming games.

I made a couple of changes to chart. For some reason I thought we were originally scheduled to play St. Joes 5 times. But I guess I was wrong. So I changed stats in "Over Top 15 (out of conf)" line. I also added the SOS as a line item.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 18-10 / .642 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 8 - 11 / .421 ...... 41 - 24 / .631
(2) 19 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 5

You are right, Saint Joe's was originally scheduled to play UConn five times this season. The Hawks were originally scheduled to play two games at UConn next Thursday and Friday at the start of the Easter weekend. However, those games got cancelled, and now UConn is playing three games against UMass instead of the two that were originally scheduled.
 
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Clutch HR by Pat Winkel to get another much needed win. Lets sweep this doubleheader ( and series).

Go Huskies !!!
current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

3 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 18-10 / .642 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 9 - 11 / .450 ...... 39 - 24 / .619
(2) 20 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 8
 
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Anytime you win 3 of 4 games in a week, you should be satisfied. But with opportunity to go 4 of 4, I was a little let down after yesterday's loss. I realize we have played a very difficult early season schedule. But we have dug ourselves into a hole, and we need to get wins to turn this season around ( stating the obvious).

If my math is correct we have 38 regular season games left. I am going to breakdown season into 3 sections, with win goals for each section. I did not take into account who we are playing in each section 9little lazy this morning). If we reach or exceed these goals , we will be on track to meet my (unscientific) goal of 37 regular season wins. The record we would achieve if we meet these goals is 28 - 10 (.739%) over next 38 games. Seems like a lofty goal, but doable if everything starts to come together.

Go Huskies !!!

Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 0 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)
(3) 10 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 ( last 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)
3 - 1 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England

0 - 0 / .000 ......... 18-10 / .642 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 9 - 12 / .429 ...... 39 - 24 / .619
(2) 21 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 8
 
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Anytime you win 3 of 4 games in a week, you should be satisfied. But with opportunity to go 4 of 4, I was a little let down after yesterday's loss. I realize we have played a very difficult early season schedule. But we have dug ourselves into a hole, and we need to get wins to turn this season around ( stating the obvious).

If my math is correct we have 38 regular season games left. I am going to breakdown season into 3 sections, with win goals for each section. I did not take into account who we are playing in each section 9little lazy this morning). If we reach or exceed these goals , we will be on track to meet my (unscientific) goal of 37 regular season wins. The record we would achieve if we meet these goals is 28 - 10 (.739%) over next 38 games. Seems like a lofty goal, but doable if everything starts to come together.

Go Huskies !!!


Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 0 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)
(3) 10 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 ( last 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)
3 - 1 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England

0 - 0 / .000 ......... 18-10 / .642 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 9 - 12 / .429 ...... 39 - 24 / .619
(2) 21 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 8

UConn may have 38 games left on the schedule, but that is 3 over the NCAA limit of 56 regular season games. I expect that they over scheduled on the assumption there will be either rainouts or Covid problems at some point. If not, then I would guess that the game against Rhode Island and the two games against Northeastern will get cancelled at some point.

Once UConn gets into Big East play. they will have several five game weeks. To make some headway, the Huskies will probably need to go 4-1 in those weeks. As usual, the Huskies need to win the vast majority of their midweek games, even though those games are not quite as weak as they have been in the past. UConn needs Pat Gallagher to become something of a reliable starter, and assuming that he gets moved to the weekends once the four game Big East weekends start up, they will need someone else to fill the midweek starting role. And obviously there is the question of what will happen to Joe Simeone's spot in the weekend starting rotation, as UConn obviously needs better than what they have gotten from that spot so far. Not sure who that will be at this point, but it always seems that some pitchers do develop a bit more reliability as the season progresses. Hopefully that will happen this season as well.
 
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As Huskymedic stated in another thread, it is always nice to beat BC. But more importantly it was a win, and we desperately need every win possible. Great pitching and finally the last few innings were stress free. Important series with UMass this weekend. We need at minimum to win 2.

From info DBmill stated above regarding number of games, I am changing chart again. I am taking out the 3rd section of our intermediate goals and recalculating some of the other percentages. Will revisit the final third of season, once we see how schedule shakes out.

Go Huskies !!!

Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 1 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

4 - 1 / .750 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 10 - 12 / .455 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 21 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 12
 
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... and it starts:



1. (15) Pittsburgh^
2. Michigan*
3. Georgia
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 5 seed. USM - 3 seed, Coastal Carolina - 3 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and BC - 2 seed.
This weeks BA projections:


1. (15) Florida^
2. Florida State
3. Florida Atlantic
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 5 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed, Northeastern- 4 seed and BC - “First Four Out” category
 
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As Huskymedic stated in another thread, it is always nice to beat BC. But more importantly it was a win, and we desperately need every win possible. Great pitching and finally the last few innings were stress free. Important series with UMass this weekend. We need at minimum to win 2.

From info DBmill stated above regarding number of games, I am changing chart again. I am taking out the 3rd section of our intermediate goals and recalculating some of the other percentages. Will revisit the final third of season, once we see how schedule shakes out.

Go Huskies !!!

Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 1 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

4 - 1 / .750 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 10 - 12 / .455 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 21 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 12

Here is another oddity of the schedule this season. If UConn does not have any cancellations of games due to weather or pandemic for the rest of the season (yes, that is a big if), it looks like the Huskies will only have three more midweek games this season. If this is the case, I would think the two games against Northeastern and the game against Rhode Island in May would be cancelled in order to observe the 56 NCAA mandated limit on regular season games. This is due to the Big East scheduling four game weekends in conference play.
 
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Interesting read on the AAC by Baseball America through this past week:

-> Tough Going in the American Athletic Conference (should be free):

Save for East Carolina, which has earned its place in the top 10 with a 17-5 record, the first six weeks of the season have not been particularly kind to the American Athletic Conference.

Just two teams, East Carolina and Wichita State, are more than one game above .500 as the league enters conference play this weekend, and some of the presumed contenders for the conference crown alongside the Pirates haven’t played the part so far.

Central Florida came into the season ranked and won a series at Mississippi, a top-five team in the country and the No. 1 team at the time, but it has also lost three series already this season, including getting swept at home by Liberty.

Tulane came just a couple of plays away from winning a series against Mississippi State the same weekend UCF took down Ole Miss, but it has won just two of its six series overall.

There is still much baseball to be played, but it’s not too early to begin wondering about the possibility that the conference is a one-bid league. That might seem unfathomable given the strength of the league, but the numbers currently aren’t in its favor.

It’s still a touch early to fixate on RPI too much, and because there has been much less cross-conference competition this season, there is a debate to be had about how useful the metric is this season anyway, but it can give us a high-level view of where things stand.

From a conference perspective, the American is currently seventh in conference RPI, a handful of spots behind where it typically is. And while there is still time to improve its standing, it will have to do so without the benefit of impact nonconference games, as the AAC just finished its entire slate of midweek games for the season on Tuesday. On its face, all of that is bad news for postseason hopes, but let’s look for comparisons with recent seventh-place leagues, just in the event that ranking sticks.

In three of the last four seasons, the seventh-ranked RPI conference was the Big Ten. In 2016, that resulted in three teams in the field, with the other two seasons (2017 and 2019) resulting in five, although it would have been four both times had it not been for Iowa and Ohio State, respectively, stealing bids as conference tournament champs.

That should be taken as good news for the AAC’s prospects because it shows a willingness by the committee to put that many teams in from a conference that isn't in the top five in RPI. But that’s a tricky comparison because there are caveats galore.

For one, as a league with just eight members, the AAC isn’t getting five teams into the field even in its best season. By percentage, five Big Ten teams into the field is roughly the equivalent of three in the AAC.

Second, it’s important to note that there can be differences in the reasons why a league is seventh in RPI.

In the Big Ten’s case, it typically has a couple of teams with RPIs above 200 and at least a couple of others nearing that range, which serve as anchors on the collective RPI. The RPI settles where it does, though, because the Big Ten counteracts that with at least five or six teams that are in the top 75 or so.

In the case of this year’s AAC, meanwhile, it ranks seventh in RPI not because it has multiple teams dragging it down and just as many propping it up, but because everyone except ECU is somewhere in the middle. After Tuesday’s games, every team but ECU was packed in somewhere between 87 and 186 in the metric.

So perhaps the case of 2018’s seventh-ranked RPI conference is a better comparison. That was the ASUN, which got two teams into the field, including a host in Stetson. That season, Stetson emerged as a host candidate as it put together a gaudy overall record.

Jacksonville got in as a second team by simply taking care of business against every team other than Stetson in the ASUN, finishing second in the conference and coasting in on the RPI high tide created by the Hatters.

It’s very easy to see the AAC recreating that scenario, with ECU playing the role of Stetson and a team like UCF playing the role of Jacksonville, with the early-season series win over Ole Miss serving as something that really puts the Knights over the top.

The best news of all for the AAC, though, might be that traditional metrics like RPI won’t be as effective a tool this season, leaving the committee to lean on things like perception of the strength of a conference, the eye test and regional advisory committees to fill in gaps. Someone is going to finish second in the AAC, and there’s a good chance that the team that does will do so with an impressive league record. And maybe that will be enough to get a team from a traditionally strong conference into the field.

But that just serves to illustrate the hole that the conference is already in, because it’s not in a place where we can project teams to make the field of 64 based on results we’ve seen thus far, but rather, we’re looking for teams that fit the bill of being able to take advantage of the strength of the best team in the conference in order to prop up an otherwise mediocre resume. <-
 
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As I have stated in past , always nice to win the Friday opening game. Have 2 today, a sweep gets us to above .500. I sometimes state the obvious, and here I go again. Need to keep winning with the hole we dug ourselves in at beginning of season. We have been doing a good job as of late, winning 7 of last 9. Even though we are winning our RPI has been slightly getting worse after each win. Thinking that will continue, because of RPI of teams we play ( for most part) for the rest of season.

Happy Easter to all.

Go Huskies !!!

Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 2 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf
)
5 - 1 / .833 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 11 - 12 / .478 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 28 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 15
 
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As I have stated in past , always nice to win the Friday opening game. Have 2 today, a sweep gets us to above .500. I sometimes state the obvious, and here I go again. Need to keep winning with the hole we dug ourselves in at beginning of season. We have been doing a good job as of late, winning 7 of last 9. Even though we are winning our RPI has been slightly getting worse after each win. Thinking that will continue, because of RPI of teams we play ( for most part) for the rest of season.

Happy Easter to all.

Go Huskies !!!



Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 2 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf
)
5 - 1 / .833 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 11 - 12 / .478 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 28 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 15

UConn this weekend was originally slated to play St. Joseph's twice, and that would have helped the RPI. At any rate, this season watching the RPI wildly yo-yo up and down during the course of a day (let alone a week) is something of a bizarre experience.
 
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RPI will play out as it plays out. They have a team that should dominate the rest of their schedule. They need to go out and win a huge percentage of their remaining games.

We’ll go into conference play with a rotation of Casparius, Peterson, Simeone and Gallagher. On weekdays they can give the ball to Wang or Dunlop and if they only get one inning out of them fine. While the rotation against quality opponents is still a question mark, there is a huge amount of depth in the ‘pen.
 
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This weekend was just what the doctor ordered, a 3 game sweep to get over .500. The competition wasn’t the best, but we need to win a good portion of these games to have any shot of an at large bid ( realize we can get bid by winning BE tourney).

Our strength of schedule and RPI keeps getting worse even with the victories. This will probably continue, since the average RPI of teams we play in the next 19 games is 172. So again, we need to win a vast majority of these games. We do end season with Villanova and St. John's. They are currently #1 and #54.

Happy Easter to All.

Go Huskies !!!

Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 4 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

7 - 1 / .875 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 13 - 12 / .520 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 43 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 39
 
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Some corrections to last post. Should have read the competition was NOT the best. Also the RPI of 172, is the average of the teams we play in the 19 game stretch.
I don’t see any typos... 😉
 
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Through the weekend (Georgetown hasn’t played yet - 1st game 4/7):

BE RPI.png
 
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Great comeback win yesterday. Maybe the baseball Gods gave us one back, after all of our 1 and 2 run losses at beginning of year. I keep thinking each weekend series is huge. The GTown series is one we have to get at least 3 wins. Even with us winning series our RPI will probably get worse. We just need to take care of business this week.

I am liking how we have turned around season, need to keep it going.

Go Huskies !!!


Intermediate Goals
(1) 9 - 4 ....... 5 - 0 (next 12 games)
(2) 9 - 3 ....... 0 - 0 (middle 13 games)

current record........... season goal
1 - 6 / .143% ........ 2 - 5 / .285% - Top 15 (out of Conf)
5 - 5 / .500 ........ 6 - 4 / .600 - Over Top 15 ( out of Conf)

8 - 1 / .888 ......... 8 - 3 / .727 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 19- 9 / .678 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 14 - 12 / .538 ...... 37 - 23 / .617
(2) 42 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
(4) SOS - 49
 
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1. (15) VaTech^ @ Blacksburg
2. Michigan
3. ODU
4. Connecticut*

Other teams of note: Texas Tech - National 11 seed. USM - 2 seed, Bryant - 4 seed and Northeastern- 4 seed. UVA is under the “Next 4 Out” after the “First Four Out” grouping.
 

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