Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid | Page 7 | The Boneyard

Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

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I also have been thinking about some of the games we could have won. The Holy Cross game hurt our RPI and there were probably 4 - 5 AAC games in which we had our opportunities to win. But we are in position to determine our own fate and I think if we do make the NCAA tourney we are going to be a tough out.

Hoping we can take care of business vs URI and then take our chances vs 1st place Houston.




current record.. season goal

11 - 10 / .524 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

32 -20/ .608 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

55.... <61- RPI

26 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Took care of business today with a 11 - 5 win over URI. Sets up a big weekend series with Houston. Hoping to get 2 of 3 , which I think would get us back in the discussion for an at large bid. Also winning 2 of 3 will help our RPI and improve our record vs teams in top 50.

We have met expectations in our " New England games" and our "Other games".


current record.. season goal

11 - 10 / .524 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -20/ .623 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

51.... <61- RPI

25 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Just did some research comparing RPI / win total combinations and relationship to making NCAA tournament. In the last 2 years every team ( except 1 ) that had a minimum of 35 wins and an RPI of 43 or lower made the tourney. The only exception was Campbell University In 2013.

We currently have 33 wins with a minimum of 5 games ( 3 regular season,at least 2 AAC tourney ) left. I think by playing Huston 3 times and the AAC tourney games our RPI should definitely get below the 43 level mentioned above. This is assuming we win some of these games. Looking for a minimum of 3 more wins.

So my new goal is to get to 36 wins and an RPI of lower than 43 . Obviously this does not guarantee anything, but I would be very surprised if we were left out. I am going to continue to update the yearlong chart, but will also have a separate post regarding the above win/ RPI combination.
 
How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?
 
UConn4ever said:
How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?
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That win would have been big and it would have put us in a better RPI position. Also we would have been only 1 game being Houston going into this series. That would have meant that if we won 2 of 3 we would have tied them for first place.

But not worried about that now. Just hoping we can get at least 3 more wins and get into tourney. With our pitching we can be dangerous.
 
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Agreed. If we can get in, Cross and Kay could definitely win a regional. The key part, is getting there. 2 of 3 would be huge, and is definitely possible due to those two pitchers. I like ucjoet's analysis: 2 of 3 from Houston and 2 wins in the AAC tourney should be enough.
 
UConn4ever said:
How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?
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Obviously you can't dwell on these things but literally every time I look at the rest of the season and think about what they need to do to make the tournament, I think back to that game. They'd be alone in 2nd place and 2 out of 3 from Houston would likely lock up the regular season title and could very well seal the deal on an at large bid.

But we can't change what's already done. If at the beginning of the season you gave me that option to be at this point in the season and need 3 wins (between the Houston series and the AAC tournament) to get an at large bid, I probably would have taken it. I'll take my chances with Cross, Kay and Tabakman.

I'll also go ahead and drop this cliche in here. If we can't win 3 of the next 5 games, we probably don't deserve to make the NCAA tournament anyways. Yeah Houston and whomever we play in the AAC tournament are tough teams, but you have to beat tough teams to get an at large.
 
Hi everyone kinda new here, my son is on the team so I like to look at where we stand. You all have great points, but to put to rest the play at the plate where we all thought the ump blew the call, and I don't like umps he didn't. On that play the player slid in feet first to the outside of home plate, he beat the ball and half his body was past home plate, but he tried tagging the plate with his hand. If he had gone right at the plate with his feet it wouldn't have been close and as far as looking back at all the games we should have and could have won, it would be no contest we would have wrapped up first place a long time ago. That being said and p s I think we are the best team in our conference, we will be at the college world series, go huskies.
 
player said:
Hi everyone kinda new here, my son is on the team so I like to look at where we stand. You all have great points, but to put to rest the play at the plate where we all thought the ump blew the call, and I don't like umps he didn't. On that play the player slid in feet first to the outside of home plate, he beat the ball and half his body was past home plate, but he tried tagging the plate with his hand. If he had gone right at the plate with his feet it wouldn't have been close and as far as looking back at all the games we should have and could have won, it would be no contest we would have wrapped up first place a long time ago. That being said and p s I think we are the best team in our conference, we will be at the college world series, go huskies.
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Thanks for posting.

Drives me nuts that no one seems to know how to slide directly into the plate. So many players (pro level) slide past and touch it with their hand. Perhaps they're afraid of injury from sliding into the catcher? I don't know but it's not something that ever entered my mind when I was playing.
 
mets1090 said:
Thanks for posting.

Drives me nuts that no one seems to know how to slide directly into the plate. So many players (pro level) slide past and touch it with their hand. Perhaps they're afraid of injury from sliding into the catcher? I don't know but it's not something that ever entered my mind when I was playing.
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Sliding correctly is another lost art in baseball. The false hustle of head first slides seems to have taken over. It really boggles my mind when I see players sliding head first into home when a catcher has all that gear on. There is a much less risk of injury if you slide feet first, and there is less of an area to tag as well.
 
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johnhuskies95 said:
http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-14/

Latest projections from D1. Only 3 AAC teams and none in the first 5 out which makes me nervous. This weekend is huge. We only have 6 top 50 wins so to get a couple more would be really helpful for the resume.
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The latest RPI rankings have only three AAC in the Top 40, with four other teams in a tight range from 50 to 63. I have to think these latest tourney projections reflect this. Still, an AAC team that goes on a winning streak against all these teams in the top 63 is definitely see a rise in their own RPI, and a team other than Houston that bows out early from the AAC tourney is going to be in for some trouble getting into the NCAA tourney.
 
Long but decent read - Breaking Down The Bubble: What Gets Teams In?

For those w/ ADD:

>>Summing Up

If you’ve survived reading all that, or you’ve just skipped to here, we’ll summarize what we found in bullet-point form and what you should look to when assessing your team’s chances on Selection Monday.

• The Top 45 RPI benchmark is more useful for mid-majors. Power-conference teams should aim higher.

• Besides RPI, conference record was the biggest determinant in whether teams got in. A quality conference record can compensate for a mediocre RPI.

• Mid-majors are given more leeway in the RPI but need to dominate their conferences. They need to finish first or second and win roughly two-thirds of their league games or more.

• Strength of Schedule, while it shouldn’t be ignored, is a poor indicator of which teams get in. You have to win.

• Being good on the road is a big plus, and not just because it helps you in the RPI formula. Winning road games makes a strong impression on the committee.

• Being extremely good (or bad) against the Top 50 and Top 100 helps (or hurts), but if you’re in the middle, you’ll need the other factors going for you.<<
 
current record.. season goal

11 - 11 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -21/ .611 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

50.... <61- RPI

26 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 50 RPI - Goal 43 or less
 
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So a loss to Houston moved our RPI up 1. If we split the next two and then win a couple games in the tournament we probably hit both of the "New Goals." Time will tell if that's good enough (or if they can even accomplish them).
 
American_BSB10:03am via TweetDeck
Here are the conference standings with two games to go:
CFBN04_UEAAW9y8.jpg
 
mets1090 said:
So a loss to Houston moved our RPI up 1. If we split the next two and then win a couple games in the tournament we probably hit both of the "New Goals." Time will tell if that's good enough (or if they can even accomplish them).
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Very tough loss last night. A win would have put us in good shape with RPI and got us close to the "New Goal" of 36 wins. Also would have helped with our record vs teams in top 50. Need a win this evening, if not we are going to probably have to make it to the championship game of AAC tourney to have a serious bid for an at large bid.

Not sure if you can call tonight a must win situation, but it is pretty close.
 
current record.. season goal

11 - 12 / .478 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -22/ .600 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

51.... <61- RPI

31 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
This weekend was an opportunity for us solidify our at large bid qualifications. Unfortunately we have lost the first 2 games of the series. Both tough losses. I really believe today is a must win situation. If not we would definitely have to get to at least the championship game to have any opportunity of an at large bid.

Getting to championship game would probably get us strongly considered, but i don't think it would guarantee a bid. Hopefully we can get a win today





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 51 RPI - Goal 43 or less
 
current record.. season goal

11 - 13 / .458 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -23/ .589 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

53.... <61- RPI

34 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
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Obviously not the weekend results we were looking for. We are the 6th seed in the same group as Tulane, UCF and ECU. We need to win 3 games to win this group and get to championship game ( probably vs Houston).

Maybe it is the optimist in me, but I think we are going to accomplish this task. If so even if we lose the championship game , I am predicting we get an at large bid.

This would get us to 36 wins and our RPI should be strong enough to get in.




New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less
 
Projected Field Of 64 (May 19)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-19/

Last Four In: Liberty, North Carolina, Auburn, UC Irvine
First Four Out: Kentucky, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Bradley
Next Four Out: Missouri, South Carolina, Central Florida, Alabama


Bids By Conference

8: ACC
7: SEC
5: Big Ten, Pac-12
4: American
3: Big West, Big South, Conference USA
2: Big 12, CAA, Missouri Valley
1: A-10, A-Sun, AEC, Big East, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC, WCC

Entering This Week’s Field: Clemson, Indiana, Southern Miss, Virginia
Dropping Out From Last Week: Bradley, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Missouri
 
By splitting our first 2 tourney games are win total is now at 34 and RPI at 48. Thinking more then ever that we need to get to Championship game to have a chance at an at large bid. In my mind , I believe Houston , USF and ECU are pretty much locks for NCAA's. Thinking we need to beat out Tulane for last bid ( assuming AAC gets 4 bids)

So below is what I am rooting for

ECU beats Tulane
We beat Tulane
We then beat ECU twice.

Realize this is a tall order. But that would get us to 37 wins and guessing our RPI would be in mid to high 30's. Reason for this is we would have beaten 3 teams (Tulane once, ECU twice ) with RPI in mid 30s

So if we then assume we lose to Houston our record and Tulane's records would be as follows.

Tulane 34 -23 ( .596) Guess of RPI 40
UConn 37 - 25 (.597) Guess of RPI 35

Much has to happen for this to work out, and even if it does who knows if that is enough. But at least we have something to root for.





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less
 
ucjoet said:
By splitting our first 2 tourney games are win total is now at 34 and RPI at 48. Thinking more then ever that we need to get to Championship game to have a chance at an at large bid. In my mind , I believe Houston , USF and ECU are pretty much locks for NCAA's. Thinking we need to beat out Tulane for last bid ( assuming AAC gets 4 bids)

So below is what I am rooting for

ECU beats Tulane
We beat Tulane
We then beat ECU twice.

Realize this is a tall order. But that would get us to 37 wins and guessing our RPI would be in mid to high 30's. Reason for this is we would have beaten 3 teams (Tulane once, ECU twice ) with RPI in mid 30s

So if we then assume we lose to Houston our record and Tulane's records would be as follows.

Tulane 34 -23 ( .596) Guess of RPI 40
UConn 37 - 25 (.597) Guess of RPI 35

Much has to happen for this to work out, and even if it does who knows if that is enough. But at least we have something to root for.





New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 54 RPI - Goal 43 or less
Expand ...
I agree and pretty much posted the same thing on the other thread. Maybe even only getting one win on Saturday against ECU could get us in. But then again even if that happened we would be looking at Cross not being able to pitch the 1st game of the regional due to suspension.
 
http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/conference-tournament-madness-may-21/

>>UCF’s Season Likely Comes To An End

Remember when the Knights were ranked Top 15 earlier this season and there was plenty of talk nationally about them as a potential national seed and regional host? Well, the Knights’ season is likely over after going 0-2 in the American Athletic Conference tournament, losing Thursday, 4-3, to Connecticut.

UCF starting pitcher Cre Finfrock gave his team a gutsy start by allowing just three runs on four hits in 6.2 innings, but it was UConn’s Carson Cross who was able to go one inning more and allow just three runs in seven innings.

Connecticut still has much work to do to make the postseason, but at least kept hope alive by improving to 1-1 in the AAC tournament.

As for the Knights, here’s what their resume entails: An early-season home series win over Ole Miss, a 6-10 mark vs. RPI Top 25 teams and an ugly 10-19 mark vs. RPI Top 50 teams.

That just isn’t going to cut it on this year’s bubble.<<
 
ATLDYKA said:
I agree and pretty much posted the same thing on the other thread. Maybe even only getting one win on Saturday against ECU could get us in. But then again even if that happened we would be looking at Cross not being able to pitch the 1st game of the regional due to suspension.
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Fortunately Anthony Kay isn't a bad fall back in that situation.
 
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