Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

[dbmill]

I am honestly surprised to see them in the First Four Out at this point. I would imagine that taking 2 out of 3 this weekend might be enough to make them swap spots with ECU.

I'm not surprised. Sixth place in the AAC and in the mid 40's in RPI will do that to you. Like you said, taking two out of three on the road from ECU would give them a nice RPI boost and put them back on the right side of bubble speculation.

 

[johnhuskies95]

I'm not surprised. Sixth place in the AAC and in the mid 40's in RPI will do that to you. Like you said, taking two out of three on the road from ECU would give them a nice RPI boost and put them back on the right side of bubble speculation.

I think Mets is talking about how he thought they'd be worse off than the first four out. First four out isn't a terrible spot to be in. Plenty of time to make hay, starts with this weekend.

 

[ucjoet]

Was out for evening so did not follow game much except for some periodic updates on Twitter. But what a difference 1 day makes. Big win and every other AAC result goes in our favor, so we are currently only 1 game out of first place. Obviously next 2 games are huge.



current record.. season goal

8 - 8 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

29 -19/ .617 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

43.... <61- RPI

18 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

http://www.theuconnblog.com/2015/5/2/8530917/aac-baseball-conference-outlook

 

[ucjoet]

Made it close at end yesterday, but a disappointing 5 - 4 loss. In my opinion today is a virtual must win, if we are still hoping for an at large bid.


current record.. season goal

8 - 9 / .471 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

29 -19/ .604 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

41.... <61- RPI

23 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Another disappointing weekend. Looks to me like we need to win at least 6 of next 7 regular season games and then go deep into AAC tourney to have any chance of at large bid. I am thinking we need to get to a total 38 wins to have a decent chance of at large bid.

current record.. season goal

8 - 10 / .444 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

29 -20/ .592 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

44.... <61- RPI

27 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Where do we stand now? With seven games left and the AAC tournament, I have to think that we still have enough time to push ourselves into the field.

Pros: 46 RPI, 16-12 road record (7-1 neutral site), 6-7 against RPI top 50, 21-10 OOC (50 OOC RPI)
Cons: 8-10 AAC record (6th Place)

 

[dbmill]

Where do we stand now? With seven games left and the AAC tournament, I have to think that we still have enough time to push ourselves into the field.

Pros: 46 RPI, 16-12 road record (7-1 neutral site), 6-7 against RPI top 50, 21-10 OOC (50 OOC RPI)
Cons: 8-10 AAC record (6th Place)

I don't think of a 46 RPI as a positive, not when 30+ conferences are getting automatic bids. It's very easy to get frozen out in that RPI range. To get into the NCAA tournament, UConn has to do a lot of winning, pure and simple.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Getting in the top 4 of the AAC might be enough.

 

[mets1090]

I'd bet they need to go 6-1 (+2 wins in the tournament) to get an at large at this point. Sweep Cincy, beat URI, 2 out of 3 from Houston.

To beat a dead horse, it's possible (albeit unlikely) if they get 2 strong performances from each of the weekend starters which they're all capable of doing.

I think it's more likely that they win the AAC tournament. Let's assume they get into the 4/5 game (not a given but for the sake of laying out the pitching days). You could have Cross going on Tuesday, Kay going on Thursday, and then be in a spot where they have Tabakman pitching game 1 on Saturday. Win that game and you have Cross going on Sunday which is the dream scenario. Lose game 1 on Saturday and Cross probably goes in game 2 to try to pitch them into the championship game. All bets are off on Sunday in the Championship game. Wouldn't surprise me to see Kay come back on 2 days rest with Zapata ready to come in if the need arises. The other scenario is you go with Zapata in game 2 with Cross ready for the Championship game but generally speaking most managers won't leave their ace sitting in the dugout with the season on the line.

Of course all this goes out the window if they lose one of the first two games but that's life in a round robin tournament. At least they did away with pool play.

 

[dbmill]

I'd bet they need to go 6-1 (+2 wins in the tournament) to get an at large at this point. Sweep Cincy, beat URI, 2 out of 3 from Houston.

To beat a dead horse, it's possible (albeit unlikely) if they get 2 strong performances from each of the weekend starters which they're all capable of doing.

I think it's more likely that they win the AAC tournament. Let's assume they get into the 4/5 game (not a given but for the sake of laying out the pitching days). You could have Cross going on Tuesday, Kay going on Thursday, and then be in a spot where they have Tabakman pitching game 1 on Saturday. Win that game and you have Cross going on Sunday which is the dream scenario. Lose game 1 on Saturday and Cross probably goes in game 2 to try to pitch them into the championship game. All bets are off on Sunday in the Championship game. Wouldn't surprise me to see Kay come back on 2 days rest with Zapata ready to come in if the need arises. The other scenario is you go with Zapata in game 2 with Cross ready for the Championship game but generally speaking most managers won't leave their ace sitting in the dugout with the season on the line.

Of course all this goes out the window if they lose one of the first two games but that's life in a round robin tournament. At least they did away with pool play.

Another advantage of UConn having an AAC tournament schedule suggested above, with the Huskies getting to play on Tuesday and Thursday would be that the bullpen would be well rested. That is an important consideration since the quality depth of the bullpen is very thin this season, with Coach Penders really only willing to go with Darras, Ruotolo, and sometimes Over in tight situations late in games. With Penders relying on so few relievers, he is going to need Cross and Kay to go very deep into games as well to keep the work load down for these relievers.

 

[mets1090]

It's a safe bet that with their A (or even B) stuff, Cross and Kay will go 7 innings without breaking a sweat. Bottom line, if they're not going 7+, it probably means they were ineffective and we have bigger problems to worry about than bullpen depth.

 

[huskymedic]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/field-64-may-7-update/

Last Four In: Virginia, Memphis, Maryland, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Liberty, Tulane, Central Florida, Nebraska

Bids By Conference:
9: SEC
7: ACC
5: Big Ten, Pac-12
4: American
3: Big West, Missouri Valley
2: Big 12, Big South, Colonial, Conference USA
1: A-10, A-Sun, AEC, Big East, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC, WCC

 

[mets1090]

Sweeping Cincy and beating URI probably gets us back into FFO territory. Haven't swept a series all year...no time like the present.

 

[killerBsaturn]

UConn is due!

 

[ucjoet]

Much needed win today. Going to wait till tomorrow morning to post updated chart. waiting for all other games to be completed later tonight.

I think we need to get to 38 wins to have a realistic shot( just my opinion) at an at large bid. Obviously I realize we will be in regardless of win total we win AAC tourney. That means we probably have to win 5 or 6 of our next 6 regular season games and then win 2 - 3 AAC tourney games.

I think this is a definite possibility and we have the talent to do it. It is unfortunate because it seems like we let some games get away this year. It would have been nice to have a couple extra wins at this stage in season.

 

[ucjoet]

Our RPI went from 46 to 52 with win. But we just need to win these next 2 games with Cinci. The RPI will take care of itself once we play UH and other teams in AAC tourney. We just need wins.




current record.. season goal

9 - 10 / .474 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

30 -20/ .600 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

52.... <61- RPI

26 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Another much needed win today by a 10 - 8 score. Not pretty but we did get the win. Tomorrow another must win in my mind. Would get us over .500 in league and also probably in a worst case scenario be tied for 4th place. Today was our 31 first win, still thinking we need to get a minimum of 38. So we are just 7 away. Will update chart tomorrow morning.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If we win three of our remaining four conference games (no easy task), beat URI and finish as one of the last three standing in the conference tournament we should be in pretty good shape. Finishing .5oo (or worse) in conference may require being AAC tournament runner-up or better to make the field.

 

[ucjoet]

If we win three of our remaining four conference games (no easy task), beat URI and finish as one of the last three standing in the conference tournament we should be in pretty good shape. Finishing .5oo (or worse) in conference may require being AAC tournament runner-up or better to make the field.

If UCF, UH and tulane win today (all home teams) we would be tied for 4th place and only 1 game out of 2nd. Again we need to win tomorrow and URI game, that will set up a big series with 1st place UH next weekend. I usually Jinx team when looking ahead, but we have a decent opportunity to control our own destiny if we win next 2 games.

 

[huskymedic]

If UCF, UH and tulane win today (all home teams) we would be tied for 4th place and only 1 game out of 2nd. Again we need to win tomorrow and URI game, that will set up a big series with 1st place UH next weekend. I usually Jinx team when looking ahead, but we have a decent opportunity to control our own destiny if we win next 2 games.

Today's action: ECU beat UH 4-1, Tulane took out USF 5-3, Memphis beat UCF 6-5 and we win 10-8. Going into tomorrow (not considering tie-breakers): going into tomorrow.

UH 12-8
ECU 12-8
USF 11-9
Memphis 11-9
UConn 10-10
Tulane 10-10
UCF 8-12
Cincy 6-14

 

[ucjoet]

Not worried about anything today , except winning today's game. So far we have taken care of business this weekend.



current record.. season goal

10 - 10 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

31 -20/ .608 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

52.... <61- RPI

25 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

What I meant about not caring about anything else is that some AAC results may help us move up in conference standings. But to me if we get on a winning streak, we can determine our own destiny. Us winning ( obviously) is by far the most important thing. Everything else (RPI, conference standing etc) will take care of itself.

 

[ucjoet]

Got exactly what we needed this weekend. Now need to take care of URI, to set up a big series with Houston. Beating Cincinnati 3 times actually worsened our RPI a bit, but that should be taken care of once we play Houston ( RPI of 18). We will be at worst tied for 4th in conference ( tied for 3rd if USF loses). Looking to beat URI and get 2 of 3 from Houston. That will definitely get us in at large bid conversation. Then a solid AAC tourney showing and we should be in NCAA. Not an easy task, but I think we can do it.

 

[ucjoet]

I believe there is a site that projects NCAA tournament field. Does anyone know this site. Wondering where we stand. Also if possible can you post link to site.. Thanks in advance