Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

[4in16]

Tulane up 4-3 bottom 8 at home vs USF and Houston pounding ECU 11-1 bottom 7. Assuming results hold......

Houston 13-8
ECU 12-9
UConn. 11-10
Memphis11-10
USF 11-10
Tulane 11-10
UCF. 9-12
Cincy. 6-15

 

[huskymedic]

American_Conf5:25pm via Twitter for iPhone
Only 1 weekend of @American_BSB left and we have a race to the finish in standings

Next weekend: UConn @ Houston, ECU @ Cincy, Tulane @ Memphis and UCF @ USF.

Buckle up.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If we don't pull off the regular season we have nobody to blame but ourselves. We could easily have one more win in the series at ECU, home against Memphis and home against ECU.

The goal should be to finish in the top three in both regular season and tournament. As the conference likely will get four schools in the only guarantee is to be among the top three in both (so an upset won't bump us out).

 

[mets1090]

What sucks is that if they didn't have that apparently terrible call at the plate go against them in the 9th against ECU, they'd be in a spot where 2 out of 3 from Houston likely wins the conference and basically locks up an at large bid as a result.

 

[ccj1201]

I believe there is a site that projects NCAA tournament field. Does anyone know this site. Wondering where we stand. Also if possible can you post link to site.. Thanks in advance

d1baseball.com post ncaa tournament field on Wednesdays. Also have a podcast that talks about their process and what teams are close to being in and out.

Baseball America also posts one on their website usually on Thursday or Fridays.

Will send links when they pop up this week. Probably won't be in the field but avoiding a loss to Cincy was big to keep RPI in the 50's. Our SOS went from 77 to 106 based on the series. Being on the road against two solid clubs will bump that up significantly.

 

[ucjoet]

I also have been thinking about some of the games we could have won. The Holy Cross game hurt our RPI and there were probably 4 - 5 AAC games in which we had our opportunities to win. But we are in position to determine our own fate and I think if we do make the NCAA tourney we are going to be a tough out.

Hoping we can take care of business vs URI and then take our chances vs 1st place Houston.




current record.. season goal

11 - 10 / .524 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
9- 2 / .819% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

32 -20/ .608 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

55.... <61- RPI

26 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Took care of business today with a 11 - 5 win over URI. Sets up a big weekend series with Houston. Hoping to get 2 of 3 , which I think would get us back in the discussion for an at large bid. Also winning 2 of 3 will help our RPI and improve our record vs teams in top 50.

We have met expectations in our " New England games" and our "Other games".


current record.. season goal

11 - 10 / .524 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -20/ .623 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

51.... <61- RPI

25 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Just did some research comparing RPI / win total combinations and relationship to making NCAA tournament. In the last 2 years every team ( except 1 ) that had a minimum of 35 wins and an RPI of 43 or lower made the tourney. The only exception was Campbell University In 2013.

We currently have 33 wins with a minimum of 5 games ( 3 regular season,at least 2 AAC tourney ) left. I think by playing Huston 3 times and the AAC tourney games our RPI should definitely get below the 43 level mentioned above. This is assuming we win some of these games. Looking for a minimum of 3 more wins.

So my new goal is to get to 36 wins and an RPI of lower than 43 . Obviously this does not guarantee anything, but I would be very surprised if we were left out. I am going to continue to update the yearlong chart, but will also have a separate post regarding the above win/ RPI combination.

 

[ucjoet]

New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 51 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[UConn4ever]

How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?

 

[ucjoet]

How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?

That win would have been big and it would have put us in a better RPI position. Also we would have been only 1 game being Houston going into this series. That would have meant that if we won 2 of 3 we would have tied them for first place.

But not worried about that now. Just hoping we can get at least 3 more wins and get into tourney. With our pitching we can be dangerous.

 

[UConNick]

Agreed. If we can get in, Cross and Kay could definitely win a regional. The key part, is getting there. 2 of 3 would be huge, and is definitely possible due to those two pitchers. I like ucjoet's analysis: 2 of 3 from Houston and 2 wins in the AAC tourney should be enough.

 

[mets1090]

How many spots to u think we'd jump if that terrible call at the plate vs ECU went the other way?

Obviously you can't dwell on these things but literally every time I look at the rest of the season and think about what they need to do to make the tournament, I think back to that game. They'd be alone in 2nd place and 2 out of 3 from Houston would likely lock up the regular season title and could very well seal the deal on an at large bid.

But we can't change what's already done. If at the beginning of the season you gave me that option to be at this point in the season and need 3 wins (between the Houston series and the AAC tournament) to get an at large bid, I probably would have taken it. I'll take my chances with Cross, Kay and Tabakman.

I'll also go ahead and drop this cliche in here. If we can't win 3 of the next 5 games, we probably don't deserve to make the NCAA tournament anyways. Yeah Houston and whomever we play in the AAC tournament are tough teams, but you have to beat tough teams to get an at large.

 

[player]

Hi everyone kinda new here, my son is on the team so I like to look at where we stand. You all have great points, but to put to rest the play at the plate where we all thought the ump blew the call, and I don't like umps he didn't. On that play the player slid in feet first to the outside of home plate, he beat the ball and half his body was past home plate, but he tried tagging the plate with his hand. If he had gone right at the plate with his feet it wouldn't have been close and as far as looking back at all the games we should have and could have won, it would be no contest we would have wrapped up first place a long time ago. That being said and p s I think we are the best team in our conference, we will be at the college world series, go huskies.

 

[mets1090]

Hi everyone kinda new here, my son is on the team so I like to look at where we stand. You all have great points, but to put to rest the play at the plate where we all thought the ump blew the call, and I don't like umps he didn't. On that play the player slid in feet first to the outside of home plate, he beat the ball and half his body was past home plate, but he tried tagging the plate with his hand. If he had gone right at the plate with his feet it wouldn't have been close and as far as looking back at all the games we should have and could have won, it would be no contest we would have wrapped up first place a long time ago. That being said and p s I think we are the best team in our conference, we will be at the college world series, go huskies.

Thanks for posting.

Drives me nuts that no one seems to know how to slide directly into the plate. So many players (pro level) slide past and touch it with their hand. Perhaps they're afraid of injury from sliding into the catcher? I don't know but it's not something that ever entered my mind when I was playing.

 

[dbmill]

Thanks for posting.

Drives me nuts that no one seems to know how to slide directly into the plate. So many players (pro level) slide past and touch it with their hand. Perhaps they're afraid of injury from sliding into the catcher? I don't know but it's not something that ever entered my mind when I was playing.

Sliding correctly is another lost art in baseball. The false hustle of head first slides seems to have taken over. It really boggles my mind when I see players sliding head first into home when a catcher has all that gear on. There is a much less risk of injury if you slide feet first, and there is less of an area to tag as well.

 

[johnhuskies95]

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-14/

Latest projections from D1. Only 3 AAC teams and none in the first 5 out which makes me nervous. This weekend is huge. We only have 6 top 50 wins so to get a couple more would be really helpful for the resume.

 

[dbmill]

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-14/

Latest projections from D1. Only 3 AAC teams and none in the first 5 out which makes me nervous. This weekend is huge. We only have 6 top 50 wins so to get a couple more would be really helpful for the resume.

The latest RPI rankings have only three AAC in the Top 40, with four other teams in a tight range from 50 to 63. I have to think these latest tourney projections reflect this. Still, an AAC team that goes on a winning streak against all these teams in the top 63 is definitely see a rise in their own RPI, and a team other than Houston that bows out early from the AAC tourney is going to be in for some trouble getting into the NCAA tourney.

 

[ucjoet]

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-14/

Latest projections from D1. Only 3 AAC teams and none in the first 5 out which makes me nervous. This weekend is huge. We only have 6 top 50 wins so to get a couple more would be really helpful for the resume.

Actually USF AND Memphis are in first 5 out. Still thinking if we get a minimum of 3 more wins we should get in.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Actually USF AND Memphis are in first 5 out. Still thinking if we get a minimum of 3 more wins we should get in.

You're right, my bad. I was looking at the last 5 in.

 

[huskymedic]

Long but decent read - Breaking Down The Bubble: What Gets Teams In?

For those w/ ADD:

>>Summing Up

If you’ve survived reading all that, or you’ve just skipped to here, we’ll summarize what we found in bullet-point form and what you should look to when assessing your team’s chances on Selection Monday.

• The Top 45 RPI benchmark is more useful for mid-majors. Power-conference teams should aim higher.

• Besides RPI, conference record was the biggest determinant in whether teams got in. A quality conference record can compensate for a mediocre RPI.

• Mid-majors are given more leeway in the RPI but need to dominate their conferences. They need to finish first or second and win roughly two-thirds of their league games or more.

• Strength of Schedule, while it shouldn’t be ignored, is a poor indicator of which teams get in. You have to win.

• Being good on the road is a big plus, and not just because it helps you in the RPI formula. Winning road games makes a strong impression on the committee.

• Being extremely good (or bad) against the Top 50 and Top 100 helps (or hurts), but if you’re in the middle, you’ll need the other factors going for you.<<

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

11 - 11 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10- 2 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

33 -21/ .611 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

50.... <61- RPI

26 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

New Goals


Currently 33 wins - Goal 36 wins

Currently 50 RPI - Goal 43 or less

 

[mets1090]

So a loss to Houston moved our RPI up 1. If we split the next two and then win a couple games in the tournament we probably hit both of the "New Goals." Time will tell if that's good enough (or if they can even accomplish them).

 

[huskymedic]

American_BSB10:03am via TweetDeck
Here are the conference standings with two games to go: