Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

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I know the RPI fluctuates as other teams win or loss, so I usually do not update any changes in RPI until our next game is complete. But just checked and our RPI is now down to 29th.
 
From D1Baseball Stock Report

American Athletic Conference (4 total bids)
SAFELY IN: South Florida

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Connecticut, UCF, Houston

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Memphis

One change from the midseason projection last week: Connecticut replaces Memphis as the AAC’s fourth team. As the No. 4 RPI conference, the American is in good shape to send half of its eight teams to regionals. Surprisingly, first-place USF (24-12 overall, 7-2 in the AAC, No. 25 in the RPI) is in the strongest at-large position as we head into Week 10, but its next three weeks present a challenge: at Memphis, vs. Houston, at UCF. If the Bulls survive that stretch, they’re golden.

UConn bounced back from a series loss to USF by taking two of three on the road at UCF, vaulting the Huskies into the field and all the way up to a No. 2 seed in our projection. But they’re the softest 2-seed thanks to a 3-6 top 50 mark and a No. 83 SOS, and we’re not yet prepared to move them off the bubble.

UCF has more quality wins, with a 7-8 mark against the top 50 including series wins against Ole Miss and Houston, but nine games against teams outside the top 200 are dragging down UCF’s RPI (NO. 48), keeping the Knights on the bubble. But even after back-to-back series losses, including an awful series loss to lowly Cincinnati, UCF remains on the right side of the bubble. So does Houston, which is in better RPI shape (No. 31), but the Cougars are scuffling lately, with a 5-7 record over the last three weeks, and problems persist on their pitching staff with Jake Lemoine still out and Aaron Garza still struggling mightily.

Memphis took a big hit with a bad series loss at Cincinnati. At No. 69 in the RPI, the Tigers have plenty of work to do to get themselves back into at-large position.
 
American_BSB Apr 16, 9:09pm via TweetDeck
Conferences with five or more top-50 RPI teams:
@American_BSB
@ACCBaseball
@B1Gbaseball
@BigWestBaseball
@SEC

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Stating the obvious, not a good way to start this 9 game home stand. need to bounce back with a win today


(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU
(77) ECU
(183) UMass
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 
Always hate losing first games of a series. Loss does not hurt RPI much moving from 31 to 37. But we are now only 5 - 5 in league play.


current record.. season goal

5 - 5 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
7- 1 / .875% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

24 -14/ .632 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

37 .... <61- RPI

15 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Much needed win this afternoon by a 7 - 3 score. Will update charts later this evening. Going out to dinner plus want to wait till all late afternoon games are over. This will give us a more accurate RPI, once all games are complete
 
.-.
Win today gives us a chance to win series tomorrow



(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU win 1 - 1
(77) ECU
(183) UMass
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 
current record.. season goal

6 - 5 / .545 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
7- 1 / .875% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

25 -14/ .641 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

33 .... <61- RPI

13 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Tough way to start 9 game home stand losing 2 of 3 to ECU. Next 2 games must wins


(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU win 1 - 1
(77) ECU Loss 1 -2
(183) UMass
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 


current record.. season goal

6 - 6 / .545 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
7- 1 / .875% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

25 -15/ .641 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

33 .... <61- RPI

16 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
This league has got to be at least a 3-4 bid league at this point. Conference is 3rd in RPI according to Warren Nolan, ahead of Pac12 and Big 12 who will probably send four teams a piece.
Selection Committee does take conference finish into consideration. IE 2013 that Notre Dame team finished 7th in the conference standings, had a solid year out of conference but didn't get in the tourney. I think if the Huskies can finish fourth or higher in conference that they should have a solid chance of getting an at large heading into the conference tournament. You guys agree/disagree?
 
Despite stumbling out to a 6-6 start in conference, we're still in decent shape because of the conference RPI. 37 wins might even be good enough.

If they can manage to go 4-0 in the remaining New England games, 7-5 in conference, and 2-2 in the conference tournament, they should have a shot. Anything better and I think they're in.
 
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ccj1201 said:
This league has got to be at least a 3-4 bid league at this point. Conference is 3rd in RPI according to Warren Nolan, ahead of Pac12 and Big 12 who will probably send four teams a piece.
Selection Committee does take conference finish into consideration. IE 2013 that Notre Dame team finished 7th in the conference standings, had a solid year out of conference but didn't get in the tourney. I think if the Huskies can finish fourth or higher in conference that they should have a solid chance of getting an at large heading into the conference tournament. You guys agree/disagree?
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I'm inclined to agree, if UConn finishes in the top 4 of the AAC they would be in. With 7 AAC teams of the top 60 RPI, I would think at this point a minimum of three AAC teams should get in, and it could end up being 5. Together with their current RPI, the wins that would get UConn a fourth place would have plenty of quality victories to go with it.
 
mets1090 said:
Despite stumbling out to a 6-6 start in conference, we're still in decent shape because of the conference RPI. 37 wins might even be good enough.

If they can manage to go 4-0 in the remaining New England games, 7-5 in conference, and 2-2 in the conference tournament, they should have a shot. Anything better and I think they're in.
Expand ...
If we get to the 37 - 38 win range, plus our RPI should be strong with the teams we have left to play, I think we should be in. Plus the way we are playing on the road( and neutral) sites vs home, I like our chances in almost any away regional. We would have to go on a major win streak to have any chance of being a host tourney site.
 
ucjoet said:
If we get to the 37 - 38 win range, plus our RPI should be strong with the teams we have left to play, I think we should be in. Plus the way we are playing on the road( and neutral) sites vs home, I like our chances in almost any away regional. We would have to go on a major win streak to have any chance of being a host tourney site.
Expand ...
To be considered they'll probably have to go at least 12-4 in the remaining regular season games and win the conference tournament. That would put them at 41-20 (or 42-21) plus a conference title which might be good enough. Anything better than that and they'll be in good shape.
 
mets1090 said:
To be considered they'll probably have to go at least 12-4 in the remaining regular season games and win the conference tournament. That would put them at 41-20 (or 42-21) plus a conference title which might be good enough. Anything better than that and they'll be in good shape.
Expand ...
That would be great if they got to the 41 - 42 win range, but I don't think that is necessary to get an at large bid. From the research I have done( last 4 years), every team that has won 40 games and had a RPI of 60 or lower has made the tourney. If we get to 40 wins our RPI will probably be in the 30's, even if we do not win AAC tourney we should get in. Again I would not be incredibly surprised if we win in the high 30 range plus with our RPI, we still might sneak in. I am really hoping we can get to 40 wins. In my mind that is the majic number
 
ucjoet said:
That would be great if they got to the 41 - 42 win range, but I don't think that is necessary to get an at large bid. From the research I have done( last 4 years), every team that has won 40 games and had a RPI of 60 or lower has made the tourney. If we get to 40 wins our RPI will probably be in the 30's, even if we do not win AAC tourney we should get in. Again I would not be incredibly surprised if we win in the high 30 range plus with our RPI, we still might sneak in. I am really hoping we can get to 40 wins. In my mind that is the majic number
Expand ...
41 or 42 wins plus a conference tournament championship to be considered for a 1 seed/host site.

I agree 37+ gets us consideration for an at large.
 
mets1090 said:
41 or 42 wins plus a conference tournament championship to be considered for a 1 seed/host site.

I agree 37+ gets us consideration for an at large.
Expand ...
Misunderstood post, sorry. Definitely agree with your assessment of what we need to do to get a number #1 seed. Unless we fall flat on our face we have a very good chance of getting an at- large bid.
 
.-.
ucjoet said:
Misunderstood post, sorry. Definitely agree with your assessment of what we need to do to get a number #1 seed. Unless we fall flat on our face we have a very good chance of getting an at- large bid.
Expand ...

Agreed. I suspect an RPI anywhere in the 30's will get us into the NCAA's.
 
Won today over UMass 13 - 2. Nice pitching performances from Zapata, Brown and Nepiarsky. These 3 will be key in AAC and hopefully NCAA tourneys. On a side note I received a call from UConn last night thanking me for the continued financial support to to Athletic department. The person that called was Callahan Brown. Spoke to him for a bit and seemed like a very nice young man.




(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU win 1 - 1
(77) ECU Loss 1 -2
(183) UMass Win 2 - 2
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 
Will not update other chart till later this evening. Waiting for late afternoon games to be completed.
 
ucjoet said:
On a side note I received a call from UConn last night thanking me for the continued financial support to to Athletic department. The person that called was Callahan Brown. Spoke to him for a bit and seemed like a very nice young man.

A couple of years ago we came home to find we had a message on our phone from Carson Cross thanking us for our support. This time around, last night I got one of those phone calls from Mark Richards of the men's soccer team.
Expand ...
 
Taking care of business in NE games. Need to get another one today. RPI stayed the same after our win yesterday.


current record.. season goal

6 - 6 / .545 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 1 / .888% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

26 -15/ .634 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

33 .... <61- RPI

15 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
.-.
ucjoet said:
Won today over UMass 13 - 2. Nice pitching performances from Zapata, Brown and Nepiarsky. These 3 will be key in AAC and hopefully NCAA tourneys. On a side note I received a call from UConn last night thanking me for the continued financial support to to Athletic department. The person that called was Callahan Brown. Spoke to him for a bit and seemed like a very nice young man.




(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU win 1 - 1
(77) ECU Loss 1 -2
(183) UMass Win 2 - 2
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
Expand ...
What is the best link to go to for directly supporting the athletic dept? I know there are several out there as I have sent into the UConn Fund but not sure if that is the same thing.
 
ATLDYKA said:
What is the best link to go to for directly supporting the athletic dept? I know there are several out there as I have sent into the UConn Fund but not sure if that is the same thing.
Expand ...
Not sure of direct link. For the last 12 years , I have been getting 10 season tickets for football with a seat donation for each. That is how I have been supporting the athletic dept. I am sure someone here should have an answer.
 
ATLDYKA said:
What is the best link to go to for directly supporting the athletic dept? I know there are several out there as I have sent into the UConn Fund but not sure if that is the same thing.
Expand ...

ATLDYKA,

You can always call the UConn Athletic Fund at 860 486 3863. Someone there will be able to help. UConn needs private financial support for their athletic program now more than ever.
 
LIUCHusky said:
ATLDYKA,

You can always call the UConn Athletic Fund at 860 486 3863. Someone there will be able to help. UConn needs private financial support for their athletic program now more than ever.
Expand ...

And you can gear your donation to whatever area you like. For example, while my donation isn't huge by any means, I've been splitting it between the stadium enhancement funds for baseball and soccer.
 
Again took care of business in NE game with 17 - 3 win. Nice pitching performance from Montgomerie raising his record to 3 - 1 with a strong 6 inning stint. Also very nice to see Hill get 3 more hits today. He has been playing much better since he has been given this second opportunity.

To get to my original goal of 7 - 2 in below stretch, we would need to sweep next 4 games. At this point I would be happy with 3 of 4.


(77) ECU Loss 0 - 1
(77) ECU win 1 - 1
(77) ECU Loss 1 -2
(183) UMass Win 2 - 2
(273) UMass Lowell Win 3 - 2
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 
.-.
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