Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

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Even though we are currently on pace to match our projected goal of 10 -2 in New England games, it always bothers me when we lose one of these games. We lost 2 games to USF which in my opinion we should have won ( good leads in each game), then losing to UHart really hurts. Need to get at least 2 at UCF this weekend.




current record.. season goal

3 - 3 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

20 -12/ .625 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

47 .... <61- RPI

24 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Nice start to UCF series.


USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
current record.. season goal

4 - 3 / .571 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

21 -12/ .636 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

38 .... <61- RPI

18 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
With the Saturday win at UCF, UConn now has a current RPI of 34 according to the Warren Nolan website. That website also has the AAC at No. 4 in Conference RPI. If UConn can keep winning in the AAC and keep its RPI in the 30's, I'd have to think the Huskies are in good shape for getting into the NCAA tournament.
 
dbmill said:
With the Saturday win at UCF, UConn now has a current RPI of 34 according to the Warren Nolan website. That website also has the AAC at No. 4 in Conference RPI. If UConn can keep winning in the AAC and keep its RPI in the 30's, I'd have to think the Huskies are in good shape for getting into the NCAA tournament.
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Just checked our RPI and it is 36. It will probably fluctuate today until all games are complete. We will definitely be an at large team if we continue to win and have an RPI in the 30's. Again from the little research I have done. Every team ( last 4 years) that won 40 or more games and had an RPI of lower than 60 made the tourney. We are pretty much on pace for both those categories.
 
Was hoping for 2 of 3 in this series. But now that we won the first 2 , getting greedy an want a sweep. A sweep would really help us forget about that UHart loss.

USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
.-.
current record.. season goal

5 - 3 / .625 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

22 -12/ .647 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

36 .... <61- RPI

14 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Was looking to win 2 of 3 in the UCF series, but by winning first 2 games getting greedy and want a sweep. This would help us forget the UHart loss.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
Taken 2 of 3 vs a ranked UCF team has to be considered a good weekend. But once we won first 2, was looking for a sweep. These next 2 NE games are must wins. They would really hurt our RPI with losses. Was looking to go 7 - 3 over below stretch , but if we win next 2 we get to 6 - 4 which is satisfactory.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44) loss 4 - 4
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
Winning 2 of 3 from UCF has lowered our RPI from 47 to 32. Really important to win next 2 games vs NE foes. This would keep us very close to on pace for the 40 wins, and it would also not damage our RPI.


current record.. season goal

5 - 4 / .555 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

22 -13/ .629 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

32 .... <61- RPI

17 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
johnhuskies95 said:
Getting to 16-8 in the AAC will be tough, need to sweep teams like Cincy.
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No doubt it will not be easy to do, but I think it is a definite possibility. We lost two games to USF , in which we had significant leads. If we had only held on to 1 of those leads we would be 6-3 in league play. Which would be on pace for a 16-8 record. Also we have 9 games left vs the lowest ranked AAC teams (RPI wise). We have 6 with East Carolina and 3 with Cinci. Need to take advantage of this.

The AAC is a tough baseball league, but as of now we have shown we will be a player in this league.
 
.-.
Beat Fairfield 7 - 0 today. The highlights for me was the solid pitching from Zapata, Nepiarsky and Brown. In total only gave up 5 hits with 1 walk and 8 K's. Great job. Also nice to see Hill get a start at short. Went 3 - 4 with 2 doubles. Has to help his confidence and in turn help our depth. Need to win vs Bryant tomorrow.

USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44) loss 4 - 4
Farifield (257) 5 - 4
Bryant (138)
 
As I have said before these NE games are very important to win. They don't really help the RPI with a win , but really hurt if we lose. So far we have been taking care of business pretty well in this category. As you will notice our RPI dropped from 32 to 35 with the win. But that is not a problem, just as long as we get wins from these games.



current record.. season goal

5 - 4 / .555 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
6- 1 / .857% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

23 -13/ .639 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

35 .... <61- RPI

13 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Beat Fairfield 7 - 0 today. Great pitching from Zapata, Nepiarsky and Brown. Gave up a total of only 5 hits and 1 walk, with 8 K's. Also nice to see Hill get a start at short. Went 3 - 4 with 2 doubles. That should be good for his confidence and in turn help our depth.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44) loss 4 - 4
Farifield (257) 5 - 4
Bryant (138)
 
For ease of access, those projections have Houston as a 3, UCF as a 3, and USF as a 2. USF is also projected as the autobid.

UConn is paired with the number 1 overall seed (Texas A&M) which would indicate they are the weakest 2 seed and are paired with the strongest 3 seed.
 
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What do you guys think we need to do in order to host again would love to see that!
 
UConn4ever said:
What do you guys think we need to do in order to host again would love to see that!
Expand ...
I may be wrong but I think we were the second seed in our regional when we hosted. I am only guessing but I think we would need about 42 wins and win the AAC automatic bid. Agree with you that I would love to see them host a regional tourney, it would be great for Northeast baseball.
 
ucjoet said:
I may be wrong but I think we were the second seed in our regional when we hosted. I am only guessing but I think we would need about 42 wins and win the AAC automatic bid. Agree with you that I would love to see them host a regional tourney, it would be great for Northeast baseball.
Expand ...
For sure, last time got to sit with Randy Edsall and just talk baseball which was pretty cool I really hope those two blown leads against USF don't come back to haunt us!
 
Last edited:
UConn4ever said:
What do you guys think we need to do in order to host again would love to see that!
Expand ...

Back in 2010 when UConn hosted, the Huskies went on a big long winning streak and ended up losing one game in April, if memory serves me right. So dominating the midweek games and sweeping several conference weekend series would be something to look for.
 
Won today 18 - 5 vs Bryant. Took care of business in the last 2 NE games to get us to 6 - 4 on the below 10 game stretch. Was hoping for a 7 - 3 record but 6 -4 does not really hurt much. The good parts of the 10 game stretch was winning 2 of 3 at UCF. The downside was losing 2 of 3 to USF, especially when we had significant leads in both of those losses. Losing to UHart also hurt.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44) win 3 - 3
UCF (44) win 4 - 3
UCF (44) loss 4 - 4
Farifield (257) 5 - 4
Bryant (138) win 6 - 4
 
According to the Warren Nolan website, the AAC is now third in conference RPI. Five AAC teams are in the top 50 in RPI.
 
.-.
We are 11 games over 500 for the first time this year. Also our RPI is a very solid # 31. I will post my hopes for the next nine games soon . Really like the way this team is playing.



current record.. season goal

5 - 4 / .555 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
7- 1 / .875% ... 10 - 2 / .833 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

24 -13/ .649 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

31 .... <61- RPI

10 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
dbmill said:
According to the Warren Nolan website, the AAC is now third in conference RPI. Five AAC teams are in the top 50 in RPI.
Expand ...
If we win our fair share of games, our RPI will be just fine. The AAC is a very competitive baseball league. Even though I have a goal of winning 40 games, I think if we are in 37 - 39 win range with a good RPI we should get an at large bid. With 40 and a good RPI we are a lock.
 
The AAC has 6 teams in the top 56 as far as RPI rankings.

23 USF
31 UConn
33 Houston
43 UCF
50 Tulane
56 Memphis
 
Our next 9 games are at home. My goal is to win 7 of 9. This would put us in very good shape for the home stretch. Looking to win all 3 of our NE games , and win 2 of 3 in each of the AAC series.

(77) ECU
(77) ECU
(77) ECU
(183) UMass
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
 
ucjoet said:
Our next 9 games are at home. My goal is to win 7 of 9. This would put us in very good shape for the home stretch. Looking to win all 3 of our NE games , and win 2 of 3 in each of the AAC series.

(77) ECU
(77) ECU
(77) ECU
(183) UMass
(273) UMass Lowell
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(56) Memphis
(150) Holy Cross
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Great homestand, this is absolutely key. Winning the ECU and Memphis series plus sweeping NE - you're right on, 7-2 would be great and very reachable. I think we have a shot to better that but it's baseball so who knows.
 
huskypantz said:
Great homestand, this is absolutely key. Winning the ECU and Memphis series plus sweeping NE - you're right on, 7-2 would be great and very reachable. I think we have a shot to better that but it's baseball so who knows.
Expand ...
Thinking same thing, would like to do even better than 7 - 2. But like you said you never know in baseball. A 7 - 2 stretch will get us to 31 -15 which is a .674 winning percentage. That would surpass my unofficial goal of a .667 % and keep us on pace for a 40 win season.
 
.-.
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