From D1Baseball Stock Report
American Athletic Conference (4 total bids)
SAFELY IN: South Florida
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Connecticut, UCF, Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Memphis
One change from the midseason projection last week: Connecticut replaces Memphis as the AAC’s fourth team. As the No. 4 RPI conference, the American is in good shape to send half of its eight teams to regionals. Surprisingly, first-place USF (24-12 overall, 7-2 in the AAC, No. 25 in the RPI) is in the strongest at-large position as we head into Week 10, but its next three weeks present a challenge: at Memphis, vs. Houston, at UCF. If the Bulls survive that stretch, they’re golden.
UConn bounced back from a series loss to USF by taking two of three on the road at UCF, vaulting the Huskies into the field and all the way up to a No. 2 seed in our projection. But they’re the softest 2-seed thanks to a 3-6 top 50 mark and a No. 83 SOS, and we’re not yet prepared to move them off the bubble.
UCF has more quality wins, with a 7-8 mark against the top 50 including series wins against Ole Miss and Houston, but nine games against teams outside the top 200 are dragging down UCF’s RPI (NO. 48), keeping the Knights on the bubble. But even after back-to-back series losses, including an awful series loss to lowly Cincinnati, UCF remains on the right side of the bubble. So does Houston, which is in better RPI shape (No. 31), but the Cougars are scuffling lately, with a 5-7 record over the last three weeks, and problems persist on their pitching staff with Jake Lemoine still out and Aaron Garza still struggling mightily.
Memphis took a big hit with a bad series loss at Cincinnati. At No. 69 in the RPI, the Tigers have plenty of work to do to get themselves back into at-large position.
One change from the midseason projection last week: Connecticut replaces Memphis as the AAC’s fourth team. As the No. 4 RPI conference, the American is in good shape to send half of its eight teams to regionals. Surprisingly, first-place USF (24-12 overall, 7-2 in the AAC, No. 25 in the RPI) is in the strongest at-large position as we head into Week 10, but its next three weeks present a challenge: at Memphis, vs. Houston, at UCF. If the Bulls survive that stretch, they’re golden.
UCF has more quality wins, with a 7-8 mark against the top 50 including series wins against Ole Miss and Houston, but nine games against teams outside the top 200 are dragging down UCF’s RPI (NO. 48), keeping the Knights on the bubble. But even after back-to-back series losses, including an awful series loss to lowly Cincinnati, UCF remains on the right side of the bubble. So does Houston, which is in better RPI shape (No. 31), but the Cougars are scuffling lately, with a 5-7 record over the last three weeks, and problems persist on their pitching staff with Jake Lemoine still out and Aaron Garza still struggling mightily.