Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

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current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

15 -8/ .636 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

61 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
With 6 - 0 win last night, we have outscored opponents 41 - 3 over last 3 games. Would love to get at least 2 of next 3


Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
BC (112)
 
For first time this year we are either at or above projected goals ( green and blue highlights). Also for what it is worth the Warren Nolan site has its own ranking called the NPI. They currently rank us at 11th in country.



current record.. season goal

1 - 0 / 1.000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

16 -8/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

45 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
ucjoet said:
For first time this year we are either at or above projected goals ( green and blue highlights). Also for what it is worth the Warren Nolan site has its own ranking called the NPI. They currently rank us at 11th in country.



current record.. season goal

1 - 0 / 1.000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

16 -8/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

45 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
Expand ...

It's funny but I also noticed Nolan's NPI ranking of UConn last night. I was trying to find an explanation on the website of what went into it, but I couldn't find anything.
 
We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.
 
huskypantz said:
We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.
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Oh, I'm thinking that between Cross and Kay, the star power of this team will become known.
 
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huskypantz said:
We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.
Expand ...
Just looked at NPI rankings again and saw a few interesting items, which on the surface do not make sense. Miami is ranked 13 in the NPI but have a better record than us at 18-8 and a strength of schedule of 4th. Our SOS is 145. Also Oklahoma state has a record of 17-8 and SOS of 14 , but their NPI is 18th.

So in both cases each team has a better record and a more difficult SOS, but we are ranked ahead of them in the NPI. Maybe it does take into account that we are trending better the these other teams.
 
ucjoet said:
Just looked at NPI rankings again and saw a few interesting items, which on the surface do not make sense. Miami is ranked 13 in the NPI but have a better record than us at 18-8 and a strength of schedule of 4th. Our SOS is 145. Also Oklahoma state has a record of 17-8 and SOS of 14 , but their NPI is 18th.

So in both cases each team has a better record and a more difficult SOS, but we are ranked ahead of them in the NPI. Maybe it does take into account that we are trending better the these other teams.
Expand ...

It could also have to do with margin of victory.
 
Did not get chance to follow game yesterday. Today will be same. Will update spreadsheet this evening. A win would be big today.
 
With split over last 2 games , we guaranteed that we would at least win 4 of the 6 games below. Next game is vs BC, which has a revised RPI of 55.




Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71) loss 3-1
Tulane (71) Win 4-1
BC (112)
 
current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

17 -9/ .654 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

29 .... <61- RPI

10 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
ucjoet said:
current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

17 -9/ .654 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

29 .... <61- RPI

10 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
Expand ...

Two road wins at Tulane gave UConn be a very nice bounce in the RPI. We're now at 27 according to the Warren Nolan site, and Tulane is now 90. The AAC has four teams with an RPI of 31 or better, and Memphis comes in after that at 66.
 
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dbmill said:
Two road wins at Tulane gave UConn be a very nice bounce in the RPI. We're now at 27 according to the Warren Nolan site, and Tulane is now 90. The AAC has four teams with an RPI of 31 or better, and Memphis comes in after that at 66.
Expand ...
Yes the AAC is a very competitive baseball league. Our next 2 AAC series are with USF at home with an RPI of 30, and at UCF with an RPI 0f 12. Also the next game is big playing BC which has a RPI of 55. Starting to really like this team. We will find out a lot about them over next couple of weeks.
 
ucjoet said:
Yes the AAC is a very competitive baseball league. Our next 2 AAC series are with USF at home with an RPI of 30, and at UCF with an RPI 0f 12. Also the next game is big playing BC which has a RPI of 55. Starting to really like this team. We will find out a lot about them over next couple of weeks.
Expand ...

Given the RPI's in the AAC, there is a lot of opportunity for UConn to make the NCAA tournament if they do well. It also means a lot of potentially tough nail biting games in the coming weeks. I'm confident that UConn can do well, but they do need to cut back on the mistakes that have popped up in recent games for that to happen.
 
dbmill said:
Given the RPI's in the AAC, there is a lot of opportunity for UConn to make the NCAA tournament if they do well. It also means a lot of potentially tough nail biting games in the coming weeks. I'm confident that UConn can do well, but they do need to cut back on the mistakes that have popped up in recent games for that to happen.
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Yes the AAC will give us plenty of opportunities to help our RPI with some quality wins. I think another important factor is to not have many (or any) bad losses. These in general would be our New England games. Last year we lost 7 games to our NE foes. That can't happen this year. Those losses kill your RPI
 
Went 5 - 1 in 6 game set below. Will take that every-time.



Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71) loss 3-1
Tulane (71) Win 4-1
BC (112) Win 5-1
 
Nice come from behind victory today. Had not beaten BC since 2010. For second time this year we are at or above all expectation goals ( green and blue).




current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

18 -9/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

30 .... <61- RPI

9 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
The next 10 games are going to tell us a lot about this team. There are 4 games vs NE teams. There RPI'S range from 189 - 287. Thinking we should win all 4, but in baseball you never know. Then we have 2 AAC series. First at home vs USF with an RPI of 35. Then away vs UCF with an RPI of 14. Always hope to win each series which would get us to a minimum of 4-2 in those 2 series. But I would be satisfied with a split of 3-3.

That would get us to 7-3 over next 10 games. Definitely would keep us on pace for our 40 win goal.
 
.-.
USF has a great record but does not appear to have any impressive wins. They swept Seton Hall (in Tampa) which is obviously nothing to scoff at, but other than that there isn't much. Not to say UConn has a ton of great wins, but if you believe stats are a better predictor of future results than past results would be, this is a series they should win. As always, a sweep would be great (especially with UCF looming next weekend).

Both teams out a lot but pair that with staffs that also have high strikeout rates. Get ready for more 9 or 10 strikeout games for both the offense and pitching.
 
ucjoet said:
The next 10 games are going to tell us a lot about this team. There are 4 games vs NE teams. There RPI'S range from 189 - 287. Thinking we should win all 4, but in baseball you never know. Then we have 2 AAC series. First at home vs USF with an RPI of 35. Then away vs UCF with an RPI of 14. Always hope to win each series which would get us to a minimum of 4-2 in those 2 series. But I would be satisfied with a split of 3-3.

That would get us to 7-3 over next 10 games. Definitely would keep us on pace for our 40 win goal.
Expand ...
Thats the key: don't get swept by good teams on road(must take 1), take at least 2 against the teams lower than you on road. Sweep lower teams at home and take 2 from the good ones. We do that and we should be in top 3 every year.
 
Tough loss yesterday. Need to win today's game. Will updates charts after game.
 
thank for doing this. love this recap/tracking thread
 
SAMCRO said:
thank for doing this. love this recap/tracking thread
Expand ...
Thanks. Glad you enjoy it. Keeps me interested in the baseball season. Just saw we are up 7-0 today. Will update spreadsheet once game is complete.
 
Have not been able to follow last 2 games. We got a split so far in USF series, with 7 - 0 victory today. Tomorrow's game would be a big win for us. We would get a series win over a good USF team. It would also place us at or above all projected goals below ( no red)




current record.. season goal

3 - 2 / .600 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

19 -10/ .655 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

34 .... <61- RPI

14 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
.-.
As I stated above, the next 10 game portion of our schedule will tell a great deal about this team. So far we are 1- 1 in this 10 game stretch. That first game loss was a tough one, being up 6 - 3 when Cross leaves game in 8th and then losing game. Winning today to win series over USF would be big.

USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28)
UHart (285)
NE (217)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
First Happy Easter and Passover to everyone. Was not able to completely follow games this weekend. But I do know we were in good shape in both of our losses and could not hold on to leads. Would have been nice to get 2 of 3, but it feels like we should have swept them. That is why it is so disappointing.

Next 2 Non- conference games are now a must win ( in my opinion). Can not afford to lose either of these 2 games. Hopefully after these 2 wins , we can win series at UCF to get back on track.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285)
NE (217)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
current record.. season goal

3 - 3 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

19 -11/ .633 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

37 .... <61- RPI

18 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
Needed this 9-1 victory today. Also we need to beat UHart tomorrow. These games don't help that much in regards to RPI if we win, but they are killers if we lose.



USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285)
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
current record.. season goal

3 - 3 / .500 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

20 -11/ .645 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

38 .... <61- RPI

16 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable
 
With loss to UHart today we are currently 2 -3 in the below 10 game stretch. Was shooting for 7 - 3 but that means we would need to sweep next 5 games. Would be satisfied with 2 of 3 from UCF and beating both Fairfield and Bryant.




USF (28) loss 0 - 1
USF (28) win 1 - 1
USF (28) loss 1 -2
UHart (285) loss 2 - 3
NE (217) Win ( 2-2)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
UCF (44)
Farifield (257)
Bryant (138)
 
.-.
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