Men Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid

[How Sway?!]

From the D1 Baseball chat just now -

Power Major
12:11
The preseason saw just 2 Power Majors represented in the Top 25 (ECU, Southern Miss), but we are now looking at 6 with 3 inside the top 10. Are you ready to stamp Coastal, Campbell, UConn, & ECU as hosts, and is DBU more likely than a 2nd Pac school?

Kendall Rogers
12:11
Power -- I feel pretty good about UCONN and Coastal Carolina as hosts right now. I have concerns about ECU staying within range with its American record suffering and that league being awful from an RPI standpoint. ECU's margin for error is zero moving forward. Same goes for Campbell and margin for error. DBU is the intriguing one to me. With Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State all not host-worthy at the moment, DBU would be a natural host at this point. Not only is the RPI in range, but it would help geographically as well.

What happened to the AAC in baseball? Remember people saying the BE move was shafting the baseball program, but reading this it looks like it's a wash.

 

[HookC22]

What happened to the AAC in baseball? Remember people saying the BE move was shafting the baseball program, but reading this it looks like it's a wash.

Good question. When we were in the AAC I believe it was the 3rd ranked conference behind the SEC and AAC for a few years. Granted we helped bolster that but it has definitely fallen off since our departure. ECU Houston UCF and Wichita St (NCAA Champs in '89) have all had strong periods but the current conference RPI is 10th which is not great (Big East is 12th). Much like us in the Big East, ECU is a clear leader RPI wise at 15th. And the biggest kicker is Cincinatti Houston and UCF leave for the Big 12 next year.

I could be misrembering that because the Big East was actually around 3 or 4 back in 2011 and it was loaded - UConn Rutgers Loiusville Notre Dame St Johns West Virgina and Cincinatti.

 

[huskymedic]

From the D1 Baseball chat just now -

Power Major
12:11
The preseason saw just 2 Power Majors represented in the Top 25 (ECU, Southern Miss), but we are now looking at 6 with 3 inside the top 10. Are you ready to stamp Coastal, Campbell, UConn, & ECU as hosts, and is DBU more likely than a 2nd Pac school?

Kendall Rogers
12:11
Power -- I feel pretty good about UCONN and Coastal Carolina as hosts right now. I have concerns about ECU staying within range with its American record suffering and that league being awful from an RPI standpoint. ECU's margin for error is zero moving forward. Same goes for Campbell and margin for error. DBU is the intriguing one to me. With Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State all not host-worthy at the moment, DBU would be a natural host at this point. Not only is the RPI in range, but it would help geographically as well.

A few other Husky mentions in the same chat:

-> Pirate: How does East Carolinas terribly lackluster road record affect their chances of hosting? I know Clark LeClair Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, but they have to right the ship on the road record

Kendall Rogers: I said this earlier, but the conference record and that league as a whole being an RPI anchor concerns me about ECU. The Pirates are down to 15 in the RPI, and if I’m being honest, I don’t see them holding that RPI moving forward. Being 5-8 on the road is an eyesore, too, especially when other host contenders like BC and UCONN have 14 or more road wins. <-

-> Mid-Major Sadness: Is this an unusually uninspiring year for mid-majors on the bubble? #44 Irvine needs to be better than 7th in the Big West. Wofford, TX St, ODU, Charlotte seem like they have uphill climbs out of the 50s. The Colonial schools have zero margin for error. #41 UTSA’s next eight games feature a combined winning percentage of .377, so they could fall even without a slip-up. Are we really just waiting around to see which SEC and ACC teams will claim the available 3-seeds?

Aaron Fitt: You make some good points, but also you have Troy sitting there at No. 33, Northeastern at 39, plus the mid-majors that are well above the bubble like Campbell (27), UCSB (25), Southern Miss (19), ECU (15), UConn (14), DBU (13) and Indiana State (10). That’s a lot of mid-majors that look like slam dunk regional teams, and now all of them are going to win their auto bids, which means a number of them will gobble up at-large bids, at the expense of some of those ACC and SEC bubble teams. And then you also have those other mid-major bubble teams you mention. You’re right that mid-majors in the 50s (and even the 40s) don’t have great track records of getting in, but some of those teams could still climb before selection day. They’re in the hunt. <-

 

[UConnRock]

The Rutgers sweep continues to pay RPI dividends as they have righted the ship and have won 9 of their last 10. They are up to 48 in the RPI which is 2nd best in the B1G.

 

[ucjoet]

12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 6 - 3 / .667 - Northeast
6 - 3/ .667........ 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 7 - 2 / .777 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 30 - 11/ .732% ..... 42 - 18 / .700
(2) 14 ..... < 50 RPI
(3) 2nd ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[MarkyMark]

Take it for what it's worth: warrennolan forecasted RPI through the end of the season. Hundreds and hundreds of assumptions but assuming Uconn goes 13-2 the rest of the way RPI would be @ 21 (they are forecasting BC @ 52 going 11-6). My view of hosting a regional is they must: 1) win regular season BE, 2) win BE tourney, and 3) still hope that there is backing to host a NE regional for a team with RPI possibly on the outside looking in. Other intangibles include respect for the UConn program. I think if this scenario plays out it's a coin flip. And IF they were to host it MUST be at Elliott. When Elliott was built all of this was taken into consideration so a bid could be submitted.

 

[CL82]

Take it for what it's worth: warrennolan forecasted RPI through the end of the season. Hundreds and hundreds of assumptions but assuming Uconn goes 13-2 the rest of the way RPI would be @ 21 (they are forecasting BC @ 52 going 11-6). My view of hosting a regional is they must: 1) win regular season BE, 2) win BE tourney, and 3) still hope that there is backing to host a NE regional for a team with RPI possibly on the outside looking in. Other intangibles include respect for the UConn program. I think if this scenario plays out it's a coin flip. And IF they were to host it MUST be at Elliott. When Elliott was built all of this was taken into consideration so a bid could be submitted.

Could you imagine Elliot with full stands, full temporary bleachers, and the right field hill full? What a marketing piece that would be for the program and the university in general.

 

[Palatine]

If BCU maintains their ranking, would they they be attractive to the committee as a host? I can't imagine we would both host.

 

[dbmill]

If BCU maintains their ranking, would they they be attractive to the committee as a host? I can't imagine we would both host.

Boston College has a new baseball facility, I believe it opened in 2018. I would think that if they finish up well in the ACC that they would have a chance to host as well.

 

[dbmill]

Take it for what it's worth: warrennolan forecasted RPI through the end of the season. Hundreds and hundreds of assumptions but assuming Uconn goes 13-2 the rest of the way RPI would be @ 21 (they are forecasting BC @ 52 going 11-6). My view of hosting a regional is they must: 1) win regular season BE, 2) win BE tourney, and 3) still hope that there is backing to host a NE regional for a team with RPI possibly on the outside looking in. Other intangibles include respect for the UConn program. I think if this scenario plays out it's a coin flip. And IF they were to host it MUST be at Elliott. When Elliott was built all of this was taken into consideration so a bid could be submitted.

This to me helps to emphasize my point of the importance of UConn baseball having such a good track record of making the NCAA Tourney, 8 of the last 12 Tourney's, and 4 in a row. Very few college baseball teams have a track record like this. To me making the Tournament almost every year does increase respect for the UConn program, and continuing to make the Tournament will do nothing but increase that respect and possibly increase the chance of hosting a regional at some point, whether it is this season or in the future.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

	Brighton, Mass
	1. (13) Boston College^
	2. Connecticut*
	3. Northeastern
	4. Columbia*

 

[HCCForever]

	Brighton, Mass
	1. (13) Boston College^
	2. Connecticut*
	3. Northeastern
	4. Columbia*

tough region but aren't they all. Would give UConn a changes for payback against them all. That Northeastern score still baffles me.

 

[huskymedic]

More guessing…

 

[Jimdish255]

Northeastern should absolutely get in imo but there will be plenty looking for any slip up.

 

[ucjoet]

12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 6 - 3 / .667 - Northeast
8 - 3/ .727........ 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 7 - 2 / .777 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 32 - 11/ .744% ..... 42 - 18 / .700
(2) 18 ..... < 50 RPI
(3) tied 1st ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the very latest D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? Ask the experts.

d1baseball.com

-> Vandychris5: Do you see a scenario where UConn, being in the Top 10, is actually chosen as a regional host? I would love to see them rewarded for investing in facilities. Make a regional with #1 UConn, #2 Maryland, #3 Northeastern, #4 Army. Give us your thoughts.

Kendall Rogers: vandy — if UCONN is a Top 10-12 team in the human polls and has a Top 16 RPI, it will host a first-round regional, IMO. I don’t think the committee denies under those two parameters. But we will see. UCONN is 17 right now and there are some real dregs on its RPI within the remaining Big East schedule. <-

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Palatine]

UConn is basically being punished for its geography. It's easy for southern or California teams to schedule according to RPI. It's very difficult and expensive for UConn. The fact that the committee doesn't take that into account seems to be a bit narrow minded.

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Field of 64

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: Week 12 • D1Baseball

The latest postseason projections are out, and while there's just one new top eight seed, there are three new hosts in the Top 16. Check out the latest changes.

d1baseball.com

BRIGHTON

1 Boston College (14) 4 Central Conn. State* 2 Connecticut* 3 Northeastern*

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Field of 64

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: Week 12 • D1Baseball

The latest postseason projections are out, and while there's just one new top eight seed, there are three new hosts in the Top 16. Check out the latest changes.

d1baseball.com

BRIGHTON

1 Boston College (14) 4 Central Conn. State* 2 Connecticut* 3 Northeastern*

LOL… BaseballAmerica flipped flopped.



-> This week’s projection includes a few new hosts. Connecticut, Dallas Baptist and Miami move up to the host line this week. UConn again flips with Boston College as the likelier host of a potential Northeast regional. Both teams could host, but with BC losing a home series against Clemson last weekend, it is slipping in the ACC pecking order. <-

 

[HookC22]

UConn is basically being punished for its geography. It's easy for southern or California teams to schedule according to RPI. It's very difficult and expensive for UConn. The fact that the committee doesn't take that into account seems to be a bit narrow minded.

Yes partially. But moreso punished for the Big East RPI and being part of that league. Those RPI's are worse and are a 3x hit with the weekend series. And those are forced match ups where as we can try and pick and choose OOC games with the limited northeast teams.

 

[huskymedic]

Postseason Stock Report: Week 12 at-large & national seed analysis • D1Baseball

Find out how the postseason picture is shaping up in Aaron Fitt's in-depth analysis of the races for national seeds, hosts and at-large spots.

d1baseball.com

Regional Hosts:

SECURE TEAMS: The eight national seeds above (LSU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, Duke, Stanford); Coastal Carolina, West Virginia, Miami

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oregon, Oklahoma State, Boston College, Dallas Baptist, Indiana State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Connecticut, Oregon State, Tennessee, Virginia, Clemson, Southern Miss <-

-> Dallas Baptist, Indiana State and Connecticut are all in fairly similar positions, as the top teams in mid-major conferences, with RPIs inside the top 20, but a lack of high-end wins. UConn has the best top 50 record of the trio at 4-2, but the Huskies are starting to slip in the RPI, as beating Villanova twice on the road this weekend still caused them to drop to No. 17. The RPI Needs Report suggests UConn must win 10 of its last 11 to finish the regular season in the top 16, and eight of its last 11 to stay in the top 32, which suggests the most likely scenario is that they will wind up in the 20s — and that could make it hard for them to host. And it’s worth noting that UConn is not technically in first place in the Big East; at 8-3, it trails Creighton by a half-game. But ultimately, it’s the RPI concerns that bump UConn out of the top 16. <-

 

[dbmill]