Men - Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Men Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid

huskymedic said:
D1Baseball Field of 64

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D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: Week 12 • D1Baseball

The latest postseason projections are out, and while there's just one new top eight seed, there are three new hosts in the Top 16. Check out the latest changes.
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BRIGHTON
1 Boston College (14)
4 Central Conn. State*

2 Connecticut*
3 Northeastern*
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LOL… BaseballAmerica flipped flopped.



-> This week’s projection includes a few new hosts. Connecticut, Dallas Baptist and Miami move up to the host line this week. UConn again flips with Boston College as the likelier host of a potential Northeast regional. Both teams could host, but with BC losing a home series against Clemson last weekend, it is slipping in the ACC pecking order. <-
 
Palatine said:
UConn is basically being punished for its geography. It's easy for southern or California teams to schedule according to RPI. It's very difficult and expensive for UConn. The fact that the committee doesn't take that into account seems to be a bit narrow minded.
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Yes partially. But moreso punished for the Big East RPI and being part of that league. Those RPI's are worse and are a 3x hit with the weekend series. And those are forced match ups where as we can try and pick and choose OOC games with the limited northeast teams.
 
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Postseason Stock Report: Week 12 at-large & national seed analysis • D1Baseball

Find out how the postseason picture is shaping up in Aaron Fitt's in-depth analysis of the races for national seeds, hosts and at-large spots.
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Regional Hosts:

SECURE TEAMS: The eight national seeds above (LSU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, Duke, Stanford); Coastal Carolina, West Virginia, Miami

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Oregon, Oklahoma State, Boston College, Dallas Baptist, Indiana State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Connecticut, Oregon State, Tennessee, Virginia, Clemson, Southern Miss <-

-> Dallas Baptist, Indiana State and Connecticut are all in fairly similar positions, as the top teams in mid-major conferences, with RPIs inside the top 20, but a lack of high-end wins. UConn has the best top 50 record of the trio at 4-2, but the Huskies are starting to slip in the RPI, as beating Villanova twice on the road this weekend still caused them to drop to No. 17. The RPI Needs Report suggests UConn must win 10 of its last 11 to finish the regular season in the top 16, and eight of its last 11 to stay in the top 32, which suggests the most likely scenario is that they will wind up in the 20s — and that could make it hard for them to host. And it’s worth noting that UConn is not technically in first place in the Big East; at 8-3, it trails Creighton by a half-game. But ultimately, it’s the RPI concerns that bump UConn out of the top 16. <-
 
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Great come from behind victory yesterday. This team is never out of a game. Back in first place in Big East, and up to 16 in RPI. Even though our remaining schedule is not an advantage for our RPI, all we can do is keep winning. Let’s get another one today.

I needed to tweak chart below because of cancellations. But I do love all the Green I am seeing .

Go Huskies !!!


12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
9 - 3/ .750........ 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 32 - 11/ .744% ..... 41 - 18 / .695
(2) 16 ..... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
10 - 3/ .769........ 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 34 - 11/ .756% ..... 41 - 18 / .695
(2) 15..... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
BC beat #2 Wake Forest @ Wake yesterday which boosted BC to and RPI of 9. Also helped UConn’s RPI. Only negative is if the NCAA only picks 1 northeast regional BC currently is in the driver’s seat
 
UConnRock said:
BC beat #2 Wake Forest @ Wake yesterday which boosted BC to and RPI of 9. Also helped UConn’s RPI. Only negative is if the NCAA only picks 1 northeast regional BC currently is in the driver’s seat
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One can wish…

Boston College Baseball Predicted Results Scores & RPI | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Boston College Eagles Baseball Predicted Results for Every Upcoming Game and Predicted Final RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Quadrant Wins
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
Final “predicted” RPI = 27

Connecticut Baseball Predicted Results Scores & RPI | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Connecticut Huskies Baseball Predicted Results for Every Upcoming Game and Predicted Final RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Quadrant Wins
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
Final “predicted” RPI = 10

Guess we’ll see if BC ends up actually playing Nova and Maine.
 
12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
11 - 3/ .786....... 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 35 - 11/ .771% ..... 41 - 16 / .719
(2) 16..... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
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I revised the chart. With the cancellations I missed a couple of changes. I believe I am now taking all games into account.

Nice weekend sweep of Seton Hall. Next 4 games will not help our RPI, so really hoping for a sweep. Unless we go on a significant tailspin, we should get an At Large bid.

But I feel l the only way we get to possibly host a regional is to win the Big East tournament and at most lose only 1 more game the rest of the year.

Not sure even that gets us a regional host bid, but continuing to win is only thing we can control.

Go Huskies!!!

12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
6 - 1 / .857 ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
11 - 3/ .786....... 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 7 - 2 / .770- New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 35 - 11/ .771% ..... 42 - 16 / .724
(2) 16..... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
I went through the Top 10 rankings and added in ERA for each team. Uconn is actually #7 in team ERA versus its #9 poll ranking (better than I would have thought). What this does include are weekday games which can get out of control in a hurry. Would be nice to see those excluded but obviously cannot find it. A ton of variables and NCAA tourney baseball is almost impossible to predict but you would think Wake, South Carolina, and Duke would have material pitching edges on the rest of the group especially given their schedules, and thus more likely to make deeper tourney runs.

Poll Rank ERA ERA Rank
1 Wake 2.40 1
2 LSU 4.40 5
3 Arkansas 5.09 8
4 Stanford 5.35 9
5 Vandy 4.10 4
6 SC 3.49 2
7 Florida 5.04 6
8 Coastal 6.34 10
9 Uconn 5.05 7
10 Duke 3.60 3
 
UConnRock said:
BC beat #2 Wake Forest @ Wake yesterday which boosted BC to and RPI of 9. Also helped UConn’s RPI. Only negative is if the NCAA only picks 1 northeast regional BC currently is in the driver’s seat
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I'm not totally familiar with hosting criteria or the selection process, but if two teams that are worthy of hosting are from the northeast only one gets selected?
 
powerplay said:
I'm not totally familiar with hosting criteria or the selection process, but if two teams that are worthy of hosting are from the northeast only one gets selected?
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No, they can select whoever they want/deem to be worthy of hosting. I think the prevailing thought is just that the committee may be hesitant to select two borderline host candidates from the northeast
 
It seems like, though we will get close, hosting is unlikely. We need to win out, plus get a little, but not too much help, from Boston College. I do think that the powers that be maybe wrapping their minds around the New England regional so if BC falters we probably get the nod.

Elliot is a nice ballpark and it is generating some buzz. Come selection time it doesn't hurt to have an attractive venue.
 
CL82 said:
It seems like, though we will get close, hosting is unlikely. We need to win out, plus get a little, but not too much help, from Boston College. I do think that the powers that be maybe wrapping their minds around the New England regional so if BC falters we probably get the nod.

Elliot is a nice ballpark and it is generating some buzz. Come selection time it doesn't hurt to have an attractive venue.
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No question UConn now has a quality ballpark that is generating some buzz. It is a massive improvement from what UConn baseball had before.

I don't know what it is like, but Boston College also is playing in a new ballpark that opened about five years ago. BC doesn't have the track record of success in making the NCAA Tournament that UConn baseball has had over the last decade plus, so the BC baseball program and ballpark has certainly not attracted as much attention and buzz.
 
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Alternate access link <<

-> “The fact these guys have put us in a position to even talk about that is an accomplishment,” Penders said. “In the Northeast, it’s amazing. We’ve played ourselves into that position. What it would mean in the state of Connecticut, you see, right now, we’re being swarmed (by young autograph seekers) in a postgame interview, and to think about what it would be like in a Regional, how many thousands of people would be trying to get to Storrs, Conn,, to see the Huskies. I think it would be something the whole state could rally around and get excited about.”<-
 
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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 8 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the latest Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? You have questions and we have answers.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

-> We the North: Last week you dropped Uconn from a 11 overall seed to out of hosting despite an away conference sweep (albeit Villanova). I realize other teams are adding to to their resume at the same time. That seemed too harsh a punishment. What are the chances (assuming both teams finish strong) that both Uconn and BC host regionals. Tell the committee why it should not harbor a warmer school bias and award both northern schools (if deserved) hosting bids rather than putting them in one new england regional.

Aaron Fitt: Dropping UConn out of a national seed wasn’t a “punishment” for anything they did — it was just based on an updated analysis of their RPI reality, which is isn’t great. Now, the Huskies have had some beneficial cancellations — and say what you want about that, but there’s no question that not having to play games with Brown, Villanova and Long Island over the last two weeks has been a good thing for UConn’s RPI, and by extension its hosting chances. But with three games against 11-36 Butler ahead, we still expect UConn to finish in the 20s, which feels light for a host that has just a 4-1 record against the top 50. Great year… but the math just feels like it probably isn’t going to add up. <-
 
huskymedic said:
d1baseball.com

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 8 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the latest Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? You have questions and we have answers.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com

-> We the North: Last week you dropped Uconn from a 11 overall seed to out of hosting despite an away conference sweep (albeit Villanova). I realize other teams are adding to to their resume at the same time. That seemed too harsh a punishment. What are the chances (assuming both teams finish strong) that both Uconn and BC host regionals. Tell the committee why it should not harbor a warmer school bias and award both northern schools (if deserved) hosting bids rather than putting them in one new england regional.

Aaron Fitt: Dropping UConn out of a national seed wasn’t a “punishment” for anything they did — it was just based on an updated analysis of their RPI reality, which is isn’t great. Now, the Huskies have had some beneficial cancellations — and say what you want about that, but there’s no question that not having to play games with Brown, Villanova and Long Island over the last two weeks has been a good thing for UConn’s RPI, and by extension its hosting chances. But with three games against 11-36 Butler ahead, we still expect UConn to finish in the 20s, which feels light for a host that has just a 4-1 record against the top 50. Great year… but the math just feels like it probably isn’t going to add up. <-
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Man I'm so tired of these guys. They bend over backwards to talk up other teams yet when it comes to us, now all of a sudden the RPI is the end all be all. Now they are saying that even though we are 16/17 RPI, its projected to drop too much into the 20's. Yet, BC who is 9 is projected to drop to the 50's. I would love to go back ovet the last 10 years and see the RPI's of the 16 host seeds at selection (not final spots after the tournament).
 
HookC22 said:
Man I'm so tired of these guys. They bend over backwards to talk up other teams yet when it comes to us, now all of a sudden the RPI is the end all be all. Now they are saying that even though we are 16/17 RPI, its projected to drop too much into the 20's. Yet, BC who is 9 is projected to drop to the 50's. I would love to go back ovet the last 10 years and see the RPI's of the 16 host seeds at selection (not final spots after the tournament).
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You're getting all wrapped up in opinions that have zero impact on the actual decision. Go look at Georgia Southern's RPI pre-NCAA tourney. Hint: It has a 2 handle AND they hosted (the range UConn will probably end up post BE tourney-see my prior Warrennolan post in this thread). So it is possible but it's subjective. At the end of the day you can crunch all the numbers you want there's still a level of subjectivity involved. Can't control it so can't stress on it. What UConn can control is winning all 4 games this week, winning at least 2 of 3 at Creighton, and winning BE tourney. When you're playing in the Big East your margin of error is thin and you're usually going to be on the fence with these types of decisions. And let's be brutally honest Uconn's non-conf was not a torture chamber. Remember Uconn was a #3 seed last year in a BRUTAL regional and actually had a decent RPI. Take care of business get the auto bid and hosting is the icing on the cake. If they slump the next 2 weeks you'll be sweating out an at-large bid. I'm sure this is Penders thinking as well. Baby steps.
 
MarkyMark said:
You're getting all wrapped up in opinions that have zero impact on the actual decision. Go look at Georgia Southern's RPI pre-NCAA tourney. Hint: It has a 2 handle AND they hosted (the range UConn will probably end up post BE tourney-see my prior Warrennolan post in this thread). So it is possible but it's subjective. At the end of the day you can crunch all the numbers you want there's still a level of subjectivity involved. Can't control it so can't stress on it. What UConn can control is winning all 4 games this week, winning at least 2 of 3 at Creighton, and winning BE tourney. When you're playing in the Big East your margin of error is thin and you're usually going to be on the fence with these types of decisions. And let's be brutally honest Uconn's non-conf was not a torture chamber. Remember Uconn was a #3 seed last year in a BRUTAL regional and actually had a decent RPI. Take care of business get the auto bid and hosting is the icing on the cake. If they slump the next 2 weeks you'll be sweating out an at-large bid. I'm sure this is Penders thinking as well. Baby steps.
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“If they slump the next 2 weeks you’ll be sweating out an at-large bid.”

That’s where my mind is at. All this hosting talk, with three RPI anchor games this weekend (if we lose any, the more apt metaphor might be landmines), is giving me a heart attack. One day at a time, and I will be happy to get in, let alone somehow grabbing a host spot with a SOS approaching 100.
 
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According to the Warren Nolan RPI website, Butler has not won any games against any teams currently in the Top 150 RPI. I doubt 1 loss to Butler is going to drop UConn out of the NCAA Tournament, but with a record like that, this is a team that you really would want to get a sweep against even though sweeps are difficult to get.
 
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MarkyMark said:
You're getting all wrapped up in opinions that have zero impact on the actual decision. Go look at Georgia Southern's RPI pre-NCAA tourney. Hint: It has a 2 handle AND they hosted (the range UConn will probably end up post BE tourney-see my prior Warrennolan post in this thread). So it is possible but it's subjective. At the end of the day you can crunch all the numbers you want there's still a level of subjectivity involved. Can't control it so can't stress on it. What UConn can control is winning all 4 games this week, winning at least 2 of 3 at Creighton, and winning BE tourney. When you're playing in the Big East your margin of error is thin and you're usually going to be on the fence with these types of decisions. And let's be brutally honest Uconn's non-conf was not a torture chamber. Remember Uconn was a #3 seed last year in a BRUTAL regional and actually had a decent RPI. Take care of business get the auto bid and hosting is the icing on the cake. If they slump the next 2 weeks you'll be sweating out an at-large bid. I'm sure this is Penders thinking as well. Baby steps.
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That is my point, there is a ton of subjectivity. I think you may not value how much weight D1Baseball's opinion carries online. They drive the narrative for college baseball. And as much as I would hope the selection committee can remain objective to their own views, those committee members cannot watch every college baseball game and will use some of this coverage to help supplement their knowledge.

Of course making the tournament is the goal but hosting a regional is a massive win for a program and one I just hope we dont get slighted on.
 
HookC22 said:
That is my point, there is a ton of subjectivity. I think you may not value how much weight D1Baseball's opinion carries online. They drive the narrative for college baseball. And as much as I would hope the selection committee can remain objective to their own views, those committee members cannot watch every college baseball game and will use some of this coverage to help supplement their knowledge.

Of course making the tournament is the goal but hosting a regional is a massive win for a program and one I just hope we dont get slighted on.
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Yes, points taken. But the most likely outcome is RPI in the low to mid-20s and hosting a regional will require Uconn being given the benefit of the doubt (goodwill meaning prior tourney success, NE host etc.). But if it doesn't go Uconn's way can't say it's robbery.
 
MarkyMark said:
Yes, points taken. But the most likely outcome is RPI in the low to mid-20s and hosting a regional will require Uconn being given the benefit of the doubt (goodwill meaning prior tourney success, NE host etc.). But if it doesn't go Uconn's way can't say it's robbery.
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Yea I agree. I guess I just dont like the feeling that we are being written off or have a downward portayal ahead of the outcome.
 
HookC22 said:
Yea I agree. I guess I just dont like the feeling that we are being written off or have a downward portayal ahead of the outcome.
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I don't think that's the case at all. Respect for Uconn baseball is at the highest it's ever been. Rarely, if ever, do I see negative comments on social media. Used to be aplenty, but now can't find them. Anecdotal but was at the Cal series in Berkeley and the seating is on the first base side only (scant bench seating on 3rd base side) so mostly Cal fans. Very complimentary of Uconn baseball and they knew about Ahmed, Springer, etc. The committee may be a different story as last year it appeared that way. I thought they deserved a regional #2 seed and they stuck them in the regional of death. How they got out of that regional is still beyond me and I think really upped the respect meter for the program.
 
HookC22 said:
Yea I agree. I guess I just dont like the feeling that we are being written off or have a downward portayal ahead of the outcome.
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People are not making downward portrayals. People are merely pointing out that playing 3 games against Butler is going to make a material negative impact on our RPI. Unfortunately, that's a matter of fact, not opinion. We have to win games, see where our RPI ends up and then we'll see what the Committee does.
 
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