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Wins needed for a 2016 NCAA at large bid

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Just another opinion (and he's not from MA):

bostonrandy9:17am via TweetDeck
NCAA Baseball Regionals Projections 1st 10 Out:

Oregon St
California
UConn
Illinois
Kentucky
Charleston
Maryland
Ohio St
Alabama
Marshall

bostonrandy9:19am via TweetDeck
NCAA Baseball Regionals Projections Last Ten In:

Wash.
Minn.
BYU
SE Louisiana
South Alabama
NW St
Long Beach St
Michigan
Arizona St
La Tech
 
Wake just beat Duke 4-3 to advance to pool play in ACC. Duke left tying run at third to end game. Based on above predictions would have been big to have Wake lose.
 
Stating the obvious, a must win today. Losing to USF would not only make road to finals more difficult but also would be a shot o our RPI. Best case scenario is we win today, play (and beat) ECU Saturday and then play Tulane on Sunday.

This would be best case for an At Large Bid. Would just love to win this tourney and not have to worry on selection day


Things in our favor if above happens

(1) won 12 of last 13 games ( one of hottest teams in country)

(2) second in AAC

(3) 36 wins ( usually enough to get in)

(4) RPI in low to mid 40's ( think this would be true)




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
1 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 34-22 / .607..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
 
ucjoet said:
Stating the obvious, a must win today. Losing to USF would not only make road to finals more difficult but also would be a shot o our RPI. Best case scenario is we win today, play (and beat) ECU Saturday and then play Tulane on Sunday.

This would be best case for an At Large Bid. Would just love to win this tourney and not have to worry on selection day

Things in our favor if above happens

(1) won 12 of last 13 games ( one of hottest teams in country)

(2) second in AAC

(3) 36 wins ( usually enough to get in)

(4) RPI in low to mid 40's ( think this would be true)

current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
1 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 34-22 / .607..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
Expand ...

Baseball America - WEDNESDAY BUBBLE WRAP
>>American -- Good news and bad news for Connecticut, the American’s lone bubble dweller. Most important, the Huskies won their opener against Memphis to climb to No. 51 in the RPI, ever closer to at-large territory. The good news/bad news comes in with East Carolina, the No. 2 seed, getting upset by No. 7 seed South Florida in the other opening round game in that bracket. So, UConn gets USF, the No. 159 RPI team, in the next round. Good for UConn’s chances of making a deeper run, but bad for the fact that a loss to USF would be highly damaging, and the may not get a chance at a resume-boosting win against the Pirates.<<
 
Here's the issue I have with their predictions. The AAC is ranked ahead of the Big Ten in RPI yet they have 4 teams from the B10 and only 2 from the AAC. They have Ohio St in because they are hot. Well no one is as hot as we are right now. By the way the Big 10's #1 Minnesota lost yesterday, # 2 Nebraska is already out losing first 2 basically in a home setting. Not buying 4 from the B10.
Also, not sure it's true haven't checked but I thought he said that Tulane made it last year with just 33 wins and we did get 3 teams in.
 
.-.
ATLDYKA said:
Here's the issue I have with their predictions. The AAC is ranked ahead of the Big Ten in RPI yet they have 4 teams from the B10 and only 2 from the AAC. They have Ohio St in because they are hot. Well no one is as hot as we are right now. By the way the Big 10's #1 Minnesota lost yesterday, # 2 Nebraska is already out losing first 2 basically in a home setting. Not buying 4 from the B10.
Also, not sure it's true haven't checked but I thought he said that Tulane made it last year with just 33 wins and we did get 3 teams in.
Expand ...

The AAC got four teams into the NCAA tourney last year.

One thing to note with the UConn win streak is that all the wins are over teams that are currently 120+ in the RPI, none of those wins are in the top 100. Ohio State during their hot streak has had a number of victories over teams in the top 100.
 
dbmill said:
The AAC got four teams into the NCAA tourney last year.

One thing to note with the UConn win streak is that all the wins are over teams that are currently 120+ in the RPI, none of those wins are in the top 100. Ohio State during their hot streak has had a number of victories over teams in the top 100.
Expand ...
You're right about both. Didn't remember us getting 4, but hopefully that's a good sign for this year, especially with Houston possibly playing their way in also.
 
As stated in other threads or above. The good news is that we have an easier path to finals, the bad news these wins do not help our RPI as much.

The new perfect scenario is to win tomorrow at 1pm ( do not want to lose at 1pm, and then have to win 2nd game). This would also hurt our RPI. Have Houston and Tulane play 2 games ( depletes pitching staff). So we would go into finals rested and on a hot streak. I guess Tulane would be a better team to face in finals. Higher RPI and also do not want to give Houston a chance to get back into NCAA tourney consideration.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
2 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 35-22 / .614..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 49.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
 
huskymedic said:
Baseball America - WEDNESDAY BUBBLE WRAP
>>American -- Good news and bad news for Connecticut, the American’s lone bubble dweller. Most important, the Huskies won their opener against Memphis to climb to No. 51 in the RPI, ever closer to at-large territory. The good news/bad news comes in with East Carolina, the No. 2 seed, getting upset by No. 7 seed South Florida in the other opening round game in that bracket. So, UConn gets USF, the No. 159 RPI team, in the next round. Good for UConn’s chances of making a deeper run, but bad for the fact that a loss to USF would be highly damaging, and the may not get a chance at a resume-boosting win against the Pirates.<<
Expand ...

Thursday Bubble Wrap: American Opens Up

>>American -- Connecticut took care of South Florida and is just a win away from the championship game, its RPI climbing to No. 48 in the process. They Huskies will get the day off Friday and await the winner of an elimination game between USF and Memphis, which eliminated East Carolina. As with Thursday’s game, neither of those potential opponents will do much to help UConn’s RPI, but they do provide a lighter path to the title game.

Beyond what UConn’s doing, the American is suddenly well on its way to becoming a three-bid league, with ECU getting knocked out and top-seed Tulane dropping into the losers bracket after getting beat by Houston. UH could get into the at-large picture, but with an RPI of 63 and having gone just 11-12 in the conference in the regular-season, it’s an uphill battle. If the AAC does come down to a UConn-Houston title game, it’s doubtful the loser could still get in, especially if it’s Houston. But nonetheless the AAC is another Tulane loss away from assuring itself of a third bid. The Green Wave plays Central Florida in an elimination game Friday.<<

C'mon UCF:

GreenWaveBSB12:32pm via TweetDeck
Alex Massey retires 'em in order again.#Tulane takes a 1-0 lead to T7!#RollWave
 
huskymedic said:
Thursday Bubble Wrap: American Opens Up

>>American -- Connecticut took care of South Florida and is just a win away from the championship game, its RPI climbing to No. 48 in the process. They Huskies will get the day off Friday and await the winner of an elimination game between USF and Memphis, which eliminated East Carolina. As with Thursday’s game, neither of those potential opponents will do much to help UConn’s RPI, but they do provide a lighter path to the title game.

Beyond what UConn’s doing, the American is suddenly well on its way to becoming a three-bid league, with ECU getting knocked out and top-seed Tulane dropping into the losers bracket after getting beat by Houston. UH could get into the at-large picture, but with an RPI of 63 and having gone just 11-12 in the conference in the regular-season, it’s an uphill battle. If the AAC does come down to a UConn-Houston title game, it’s doubtful the loser could still get in, especially if it’s Houston. But nonetheless the AAC is another Tulane loss away from assuring itself of a third bid. The Green Wave plays Central Florida in an elimination game Friday.<<

C'mon UCF:

GreenWaveBSB12:32pm via TweetDeck
Alex Massey retires 'em in order again.#Tulane takes a 1-0 lead to T7!#RollWave
Expand ...

Tulane takes out UCF 5-0. Guess we need to take matters into our own hands and just go win the damn thing!
 
Saturday Bubble Wrap: Cougars Making A Run - BaseballAmerica.com

>> American -- The AAC is officially guaranteed to be a three-bid league after Houston eliminated top-seed Tulane on Saturday. You can see highlights here. The Cougars will face Connecticut on Sunday for the automatic bid, with the winner joining Tulane and East Carolina in the NCAA field. The question is, could the loser also get in and make the American a four-bid league? For UConn, the answer is probably no. The Huskies made it to the title game, but not before losing once to Memphis—they were able to come back and win an if-necessary game—which hit their RPI down to No. 60. Should they lose to UH and fall another couple spots, they’re likely done for. On the other side, Houston is up to No. 53 after scoring a pair of win against Tulane this week. The Cougars were largely off the at-large radar after going just 11-12 in the AAC in the regular season, but they do have a respectable 9-10 record against the top 50 and have finished well, going 11-4 in their last 15 games heading into Sunday. The RPI would still be in a precarious position with a loss to UConn, but UH is the team that would have a better chance, albeit not a great one, should it come out on the wrong end of that game.<<
 
.-.
Hey @ucjoet - great job again on the thread this year. Your projections are really right on as usual, it's fun to follow allow and cheer for the beisbol huskies. And even sweeter when we get to celebrate another postseason trip to the NCAA's. Thanks and looking forward to seeing this again next season!!!
 
Very happy to have won the AAC tourney yesterday. Thinking we would not have gotten in with a loss. Below is my last graph of this year. Hopefully many of you enjoy this. It personally keeps me involved in the baseball season.

Also want to thank the posters that are much more knowledgeable than I about the team. Your post prior to , during and after game are very enjoyable and informative. Don't want to single anyone of you out, because I am sure I would miss someone. But we can all figure out who you are.

As you know my graph below is far from an exact science. But my Post season criteria chart was pretty close to being right on ( pure luck) .

Now lets go out and win some games in NCAA tourney.

Looking forward to posting graph info next year.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
4 - 1 / .800 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 37-23 / .617..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
 
ucjoet said:
Very happy to have won the AAC tourney yesterday. Thinking we would not have gotten in with a loss. Below is my last graph of this year. Hopefully many of you enjoy this. It personally keeps me involved in the baseball season.

Also want to thank the posters that are much more knowledgeable than I about the team. Your post prior to , during and after game are very enjoyable and informative. Don't want to single anyone of you out, because I am sure I would miss someone. But we can all figure out who you are.

As you know my graph below is far from an exact science. But my Post season criteria chart was pretty close to being right on ( pure luck) .

Now lets go out and win some games in NCAA tourney.

Looking forward to posting graph info next year.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
4 - 1 / .800 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 37-23 / .617..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
Expand ...

upload_2016-5-30_11-56-19.jpeg
 
ucjoet said:
Very happy to have won the AAC tourney yesterday. Thinking we would not have gotten in with a loss. Below is my last graph of this year. Hopefully many of you enjoy this. It personally keeps me involved in the baseball season.

Also want to thank the posters that are much more knowledgeable than I about the team. Your post prior to , during and after game are very enjoyable and informative. Don't want to single anyone of you out, because I am sure I would miss someone. But we can all figure out who you are.

As you know my graph below is far from an exact science. But my Post season criteria chart was pretty close to being right on ( pure luck) .

Now lets go out and win some games in NCAA tourney.

Looking forward to posting graph info next year.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
4 - 1 / .800 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 37-23 / .617..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
Expand ...


Just curious, if we didn't lose to Memphis that first game on Saturday would we have had an at large? (With Houston loss)
 
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