Wins needed for a 2016 NCAA at large bid

[ucjoet]

I was going to start this last week , but a few things came up. Again based on research of teams that made tourney over last few years, I came up with my unscientific path for the baseball team to get an at large bid. I hope some of you enjoy this. It keeps me interested in season .

I am assuming we play 60 games prior to NCAA. I included 4 games of AAC tourney play ( this can vary). Based on 60 games I came up with the 3 criteria we need to meet (or exceed) to get a bid. Obviously this does not guarantee a bid , but from past history it would place us in great position.

The 3 Criteria

(1) minimum 38 wins
(2) RPI less then 51
(3) Top 4 team in AAC regular season


I would like to ask 2 things

(A) Can this thread be pinned

(B) This is a little self serving, but if you guys do enjoy this can you like a post of mine every once in a while. My post to like ratio can use the help. Thanks . Go Huskies



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
0- 0 / .1000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
2 -2 / .500 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 2 -2 / .500 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 44 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskypantz]

I vote for pinning this and I'd give ya extra likes if I could.

 

[ucjoet]

Nice win tonight for third straight victory. Great job by offense, defense ( I believe no errors) and pitching. A sweep by beating Alcorn St tomorrow would be big. You will see below that our RPI has jumped to 9th with a SOS of 12. I know it is early so the RPI and SOS can fluctuate widely as we play more games, but so far so good.





current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
0- 0 / .1000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
3 -2 / .600 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 3 -2 / .600 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 9 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Nice win tonight for third straight victory. Great job by offense, defense ( I believe no errors) and pitching. A sweep by beating Alcorn St tomorrow would be big. You will see below that our RPI has jumped to 9th with a SOS of 12. I know it is early so the RPI and SOS can fluctuate widely as we play more games, but so far so good.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
0- 0 / .1000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
3 -2 / .600 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 3 -2 / .600 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 9 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

Aside from UConn's first game with UTSA, the Huskies have been keeping fielding and base running blunders (aside from Zac Susi) to a minimum. Hitting wise, they seem to be helped from having the experience of four seniors consistently in the starting lineup.

As for the RPI, UConn really benefits from road victories over UTSA and Austin Peay on their home fields, as the RPI gives a nice boost to true road victories.

 

[ucjoet]

There was good news and bad news for me this afternoon. The bad news first, was that I was at the men's game today. Definitely a game we could have won, but unfortunately they did not. But I will save my thoughts on that for the basketball board.

Was checking Twitter for baseball scores, and very happy to see we came out with an easy victory. This is our 4th win in a row. We have won the last 4 games by an average score of 16 - 4. We also now have the best RPI in the AAC conference at 16. ECU is second at 20.

Also I believe this is the first time ever that my chart below has all green highlights for applicable categories. After 2 losses to start season we have really turned it around.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
0- 0 / .000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
4 -2 / .667 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 4 -2 / .667 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 16 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskypantz]

Nolan prediction is 50-6, which is a little silly this early in the season. I'll take 40 wins - with our schedule, that would be solid.

 

[ucjoet]

Nolan prediction is 50-6, which is a little silly this early in the season. I'll take 40 wins - with our schedule, that would be solid.

Totally agree, 50 -6 ( not impossible) but very, very unlikely. With 40 wins , we are definitely in. I would sign up for that right now, no questions asked. Would love to get 2 of 3 from Liberty this weekend

 

[BoatShow]

Just about the only thing I miss about the 50 minute commute I used to have between Putnam and Vernon is listening to the Diamond Dogs (did I just come up with that? Not bad) on WHUS. Big things this year!

 

[uconnbaseball]

Liberty is a pretty good team, probably comparable to UTSA. If we play as well (or almost as well) as we did this weekend I'd expect to take 2 down there.

 

[ucjoet]

I will be away in Boston this weekend. Going to watch Celtics Friday night vs Knicks, with my son and a few other people. First time at a Celtic game for me in 40 years. Really enjoy watching them play this year. I think Brad Stevens is a heck of a coach.

The reason for above intro, is that I will not update my graph until Sunday evening. I will be following games on Twitter. Hoping for getting at least 2 wins this weekend.

A few interesting facts about team below.

(1) We have moved up to 10th in current RPI. Only ECU at 9 is higher of AAC teams

(2) We are 6th is average runs per game at 11.8

(3) We are also 6th in runs differential at 7.7

(4) Our average score per game is 11.8 to 4.1

(5) We have the largest margin of victory in a game at 22

(6) We have the 2nd highest run production in 1 game at 25 runs.

(7) Liberty is 5 - 4 ( losing 2 of 3 to USF) and an RPI of 105

 

[ucjoet]

Was not able to follow as closely as I usually do, but was hoping to win 2 of 3. Almost came back today to get that accomplished, but we just fell short.

Not much to add because of my limited access to games, but wanted to update graph. Need to go 5 - 3 over the 8 west coast game to reach our goal of 10 - 7. Definitely doable.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
0- 0 / .000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
5 -4 / .556 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 5 -4 / .556 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 32 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Much needed win vs a Northeast team. Even though this hurt our RPI (going from 32 to 57), it is a game we just can't lose. Even with our RPI taking a hit, we still have second best RPI in conference ( only behind ECU).

Now off to California with 2 games vs Cal St Northridge ( RPI 194) and William and Mary (RPI 117). Need to get at least 2 this weekend. Hoping for 3 of 4.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
5 -4 / .556 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 6 -4 / .600 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 57.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Wow, what an afternoon for Uconn sports. Hoop team wins an incredible must win game and baseball teams beats up William and Mary in first game of west coast trip. Took afternoon off from work and was following baseball game on Twitter and watched hoop game. Lets keep weekend going with a hoop and baseball win tomorrow.

Kay pitched a great game and bats were obviously on fire. With our 18 run total today, we now average 10.3 runs per game ( which is number 1 in college baseball). Our run differential is 6.1, which ranks us 5th. Still have second best RPI in AAC, behind ECU. Tonight's game is postponed till Sunday. Would love to win 2 of next 3. GO HUSKIES

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
6 -4 / .600 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 7 -4 / .636 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 52.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Updating graph prior to today's game . Checked RPI this morning and we moved up to 44 ( places us in green below). Even though conference play has not started. I am going to base our ranking on the current RPI when considering if we are a top 4 team in our conference ( criteria below).

I am very excited about hoop game today. We can cement a bid today ( even though I personally think we should already be in). Also hoping baseball team gets another win today vs William and Mary.

You will notice below that all categories are in green.

One last thing . How do I get this post pinned. Anyone with info or power let me know. Thanks in advance. Hope you guy's enjoy this info.

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
6 -4 / .600 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 7 -4 / .636 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 44.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - 2nd ( behindECU)

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

It was some day, between UConn baseball and that amazing basketball game. I did not take the afternoon off from work, but I did try to follow both as best I could from there until I left for home. I did get home in time to watch the last two overtimes. Just simply amazing.

 

[ucjoet]

Another great afternoon for UConn sports. Big win for hoop team , which should cement us in NCAA tourney. Plus we will be a favorite tomorrow vs either Tulane or Memphis to win championship.

Baseball team guts out a 3 - 2 victory. Exceptional performance by freshman Tim Cate. Eleven K's in 6 innings, giving up only 1 run. He now has 16 K's in 10 innings, which is very impressive.

We are now 3rd in runs per game at 9.7, and 6th in run differential at 5.7. Would take a split tomorrow, but always get greedy and rooting for a sweep of the weekend.

Would love to get a Hoop AAC championship and a 4 win west cost trip. Go Huskies

PS All green below


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
7 -4 / .636 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 8 -4 / .667 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 35.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - 2nd ( behind ECU)

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Two tough losses yesterday. Taught we were going to pull out a victory in second game, but could not hold on to a late 1- 0 lead. Need to win 3 of 4 next weekend to reach the 10 - 7 goal set below. Not going to be easy.

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
7 -6/ .538 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 8 -6 / .571 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 47.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - 3rd


CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Two tough losses yesterday. Taught we were going to pull out a victory in second game, but could not hold on to a late 1- 0 lead. Need to win 3 of 4 next weekend to reach the 10 - 7 goal set below. Not going to be easy.

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
7 -6/ .538 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 8 -6 / .571 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 47.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - 3rd


CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Big comeback win last night. Now 2 of next 3 would be a great. Our RPI moved to 33, which is highest in AAC.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -6/ .571 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 9 -6 / .600 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 33.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Big comeback win last night. Now 2 of next 3 would be a great. Our RPI moved to 33, which is highest in AAC.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -6/ .571 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 9 -6 / .600 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 33.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

Santa Barbara is currently 7 in the RPI. It's going to be real tough, but winning two out of three against them would be tremendous. It would also provide a real boost in the RPI if that were to happen.

 

[ucjoet]

Two tough losses so far this weekend. As stated above we could have or should have won either one or both games. Relief pitching let us down. With that said if we can pull off a victory today, we would split this tough west coast trip at 2 - 2. You will see below that even with our 2 losses our RPI has improved , and is still best in AAC.

A win today would be huge.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -8/ .500 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 9 -8 / .529 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 29.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

The bad news is we lost 3 tough games this weekend. The good news is that our RPI stayed at 33. Our next 6 games are Yale , CCSU, Columbia (3) and BC. Probably need to win at minimum 5 of 6, to get back on track.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 9 -9 / .500 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 33.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

The bad news is we lost 3 tough games this weekend. The good news is that our RPI stayed at 33. Our next 6 games are Yale , CCSU, Columbia (3) and BC. Probably need to win at minimum 5 of 6, to get back on track.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / 1.000% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 9 -9 / .500 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 33.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

UConn already played and beat Yale, as that game was rescheduled to earlier in March. So UConn now has five straight games against northeastern teams before they start the AAC schedule against Tulane.

 

[huskymedic]

FearTheWaveBlog11:48am via Twitter for iPhone

AAC Baseball RPI 3/21:
32 UConn (+15)
37 Hou (+44)
63 ECU (-22)
72 Tulane (-31)
119 USF (+65)
153 Cincy (+16)
162 UCF (-24)
200 Mem (-28)

 

[ucjoet]

Have been following last 4 games, but during CCSU game made a decision not to update graph until after Columbia series. Was hoping for a sweep to get us ( sort of) back on track , but lucky to win 2 of 3. Hate to say the BC game is a must win, but it just may be.

For us to get to our goal of 38 wins ( assuming 2 in AAC tourney). We need to go 25 - 9 for rest of season. That means something like 9 - 1 in Northeast games and 16 - 8 in conference play. Even though not impossible, we are going to have to play much better baseball to come close to accomplishing this goal.

As they say, weirder things have happened. Happy Easter to all.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3 - 2 / .600% ... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 -9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 11-11 / .500 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 81.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - fourth

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable