Wins needed for a 2016 NCAA at large bid

[ucjoet]

Does anyone know what the resolution will be with regards to the two games that were postponed? Will they be discarded or will an attempt (neutral site?) be made to play them?

Don't know as a fact, but I believe I read that they will Not be made up.

 

[dbmill]

Does anyone know what the resolution will be with regards to the two games that were postponed? Will they be discarded or will an attempt (neutral site?) be made to play them?

The rain shortened game against Memphis counts in the standings as a UConn loss. The game against Tulane was cancelled and I don't expect it will be made up.

 

[ucjoet]

Another much needed win today. Only 4 regular season games left ( vs URI, and 3 away at USF) getting 3 wins minimum would be huge. Besides my usual graph, I also have updated list of last teams in and out of NCAA tourney from Baseball America ( dated May 11) . Still holding out hope for an at Large bid if we don't win tourney. With a good finish , we may just sneak in.

current record . season goal
11 - 9 / .550 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000 .2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
10 - 4 / .714... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 29-22 / .569..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 74.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable



Per Baseball America ( May 11), Records / RPI updated as of today

Last 4 In
Cal 27 -18 , 53
Neb 33-18 , 50
Gonz 29-15 , 40
BC 28-18 , 43

First 4 out
Mary 26 -24 , 76
Duke 31-20 , 25
Pitt 25-22 , 63
St. Mary 26-22 , 82

Next 4 out
Lous Tech 34-15 , 46
Lamar 32-16 , 74
Jacksonville 32-18 , 64
High Point 29-20 , 85

We are currently at 29-22, RPI 73. Looks to me we would be at top of next 4 out group. Will be interesting to see where Baseball America places us next week. Still think if we win 3 of 4 regular season games and get to AAC championship game we should be in .

 

[ucjoet]

Below is updated info from Baseball America regarding last teams in and out of NCAA tourney. Little surprised because I thought we would move into the next 4 out category. Really need at least 2 this weekend, but a sweep would go a long way into at least getting us in conversation.

Still thinking we need minimum of 2 this weekend, plus need to get to championship game of AAC tourney. Crazier things have happened.


Last Four In: California, Nebraska, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State
First Four Out: Boston College, Oregon State, North Florida, Jacksonville
Next Four Out: Marshall, Michigan State, Northwestern State, Georgia

 

[ucjoet]

Great way to start series. Need at least 1 of next 2, but really hoping to sweep this series. I think that would put us in conversation for At Large bid, with a good performance in AAC tourney.




current record . season goal
12 - 9 / .571 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000 .2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 31-22 / .585..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 65.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

Based on previous articles I've read - this guy clearly has a northern baseball animus.

UConn Baseball Hoping for Last-Gasp Run at Postseason -

 

[ucjoet]

Going a little Donald Trump here, but a Huge win yesterday and a Huge game today. Based on resumes of Baseball Americas last four teams below, we are still a little behind them. That makes today's game very important.

UConn 32 - 22 RPI 59

Last 4 In

Cal 29-18 , 50
Neb 36-18, 42
Lous tech 36-16, 41
S. Hou St 36-19. 46

 

[dbmill]

Going a little Donald Trump here, but a Huge win yesterday and a Huge game today. Based on resumes of Baseball Americas last four teams below, we are still a little behind them. That makes today's game very important.

UConn 32 - 22 RPI 59

Last 4 In

Cal 29-18 , 50
Neb 36-18, 42
Lous tech 36-16, 41
S. Hou St 36-19. 46

Chris Jones on WHUS has been saying that if UConn wins out in this final series against USF and loses in the AAC finals that the Huskies would probably still be somewhere on the bubble for making the NCAA tournament, which would mean maybe they get in, and maybe they don't. Given what has been posted above, I would definitely agree with that analysis. The one good thing that if UConn made it to the finals it would probably mean that the Huskies would have to beat either Tulane or East Carolina twice, which would certainly be a big help to their NCAA resume. Problem is, both Tulane and East Carolina are very good teams that have been big trouble for UConn this year. The Huskies have definitely been playing better of late, but it is also important to remember that with the exception of the East Carolina series in Storrs, that the Huskies in recent weeks have been playing teams from the bottom half of the standings.

 

[ucjoet]

Big win today to keep our at large bid hope alive. Our RPI is currently at 52, would be nice to get it into the 40's. Think we need to get to championship game, plus have some teams ahead of us in record / RPI lose. At that point we may slip in as one of the last teams in. Also hoping the NCCA selection comitte takes into account our late season win streak ( realize it was vs lower half of AAC, but still impressive).

Think if we do get in we can cause some damage

Also below are Baseball Americas teams we are competing against for last few bids

Last Four In: California, Nebraska, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State
First Four Out: Boston College, Oregon State, North Florida, Jacksonville
Next Four Out: Marshall, Michigan State, Northwestern State, Georgia

I have re-ranked them based on current record and RPI ( obviously slightly biased towards us)


Last 4 In

Lous Tech 37 -16, 36
Neb 37-18, 37
S Hou St 37-19 , 45
N W St 33-22, 40


First 4 Out

BC 30-19, 41
N Fla 37-17, 53
Cal 29-18, 51
UConn 33-22, 52


Next 5 Out

OR St 31-19, 61
Marshall 32-19,64
Jack 33-20,74
Mich St 34-18, 84
Georgia 27-29 ,35






current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000 .2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 33-22 / .600..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 52.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal

 

[huskymedic]

Postseason Picture: Conference Rundown | D1Baseball.com

American (No. 6 RPI conference)
Tulane won its rubber game at Houston 4-3 to win the American regular-season title by a half-game over East Carolina. Assuming one of those two teams wins the conference tournament, the AAC will be a two-bid league — the Cougars might have had a shot at an at-large bid had they won Saturday but instead they finished 11-12 in the league and No. 71 in the RPI.

Tulane, meanwhile, climbed inside the top 30 in the RPI (No. 27) and owns a decent 9-6 record against the top 50 and a nice 18-10 mark against the top 100. Throw in the regular-season conference title, and the Green Wave is strongly in the hosting mix.

 

[huskymedic]

Just another opinion (and he's not from MA):

bostonrandy9:17am via TweetDeck
NCAA Baseball Regionals Projections 1st 10 Out:

Oregon St
California
UConn
Illinois
Kentucky
Charleston
Maryland
Ohio St
Alabama
Marshall

bostonrandy9:19am via TweetDeck
NCAA Baseball Regionals Projections Last Ten In:

Wash.
Minn.
BYU
SE Louisiana
South Alabama
NW St
Long Beach St
Michigan
Arizona St
La Tech

 

[huskymedic]

Projected Field Of 64 (May 24) - BaseballAmerica.com

Last Four In: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Michigan, Washington
First Four Out: Alabama, Oregon State, North Carolina, Connecticut
Next Four Out: California, Marshall, North Florida, Northwestern State

 

[ATLDYKA]

Wake just beat Duke 4-3 to advance to pool play in ACC. Duke left tying run at third to end game. Based on above predictions would have been big to have Wake lose.

 

[ucjoet]

Stating the obvious, a must win today. Losing to USF would not only make road to finals more difficult but also would be a shot o our RPI. Best case scenario is we win today, play (and beat) ECU Saturday and then play Tulane on Sunday.

This would be best case for an At Large Bid. Would just love to win this tourney and not have to worry on selection day


Things in our favor if above happens

(1) won 12 of last 13 games ( one of hottest teams in country)

(2) second in AAC

(3) 36 wins ( usually enough to get in)

(4) RPI in low to mid 40's ( think this would be true)




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
1 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 34-22 / .607..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal

 

[huskymedic]

Stating the obvious, a must win today. Losing to USF would not only make road to finals more difficult but also would be a shot o our RPI. Best case scenario is we win today, play (and beat) ECU Saturday and then play Tulane on Sunday.

This would be best case for an At Large Bid. Would just love to win this tourney and not have to worry on selection day

Things in our favor if above happens

(1) won 12 of last 13 games ( one of hottest teams in country)

(2) second in AAC

(3) 36 wins ( usually enough to get in)

(4) RPI in low to mid 40's ( think this would be true)

current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
1 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 34-22 / .607..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal

Baseball America - WEDNESDAY BUBBLE WRAP
>>American -- Good news and bad news for Connecticut, the American’s lone bubble dweller. Most important, the Huskies won their opener against Memphis to climb to No. 51 in the RPI, ever closer to at-large territory. The good news/bad news comes in with East Carolina, the No. 2 seed, getting upset by No. 7 seed South Florida in the other opening round game in that bracket. So, UConn gets USF, the No. 159 RPI team, in the next round. Good for UConn’s chances of making a deeper run, but bad for the fact that a loss to USF would be highly damaging, and the may not get a chance at a resume-boosting win against the Pirates.<<

 

[ATLDYKA]

Here's the issue I have with their predictions. The AAC is ranked ahead of the Big Ten in RPI yet they have 4 teams from the B10 and only 2 from the AAC. They have Ohio St in because they are hot. Well no one is as hot as we are right now. By the way the Big 10's #1 Minnesota lost yesterday, # 2 Nebraska is already out losing first 2 basically in a home setting. Not buying 4 from the B10.
Also, not sure it's true haven't checked but I thought he said that Tulane made it last year with just 33 wins and we did get 3 teams in.

 

[dbmill]

Here's the issue I have with their predictions. The AAC is ranked ahead of the Big Ten in RPI yet they have 4 teams from the B10 and only 2 from the AAC. They have Ohio St in because they are hot. Well no one is as hot as we are right now. By the way the Big 10's #1 Minnesota lost yesterday, # 2 Nebraska is already out losing first 2 basically in a home setting. Not buying 4 from the B10.
Also, not sure it's true haven't checked but I thought he said that Tulane made it last year with just 33 wins and we did get 3 teams in.

The AAC got four teams into the NCAA tourney last year.

One thing to note with the UConn win streak is that all the wins are over teams that are currently 120+ in the RPI, none of those wins are in the top 100. Ohio State during their hot streak has had a number of victories over teams in the top 100.

 

[ATLDYKA]

The AAC got four teams into the NCAA tourney last year.

One thing to note with the UConn win streak is that all the wins are over teams that are currently 120+ in the RPI, none of those wins are in the top 100. Ohio State during their hot streak has had a number of victories over teams in the top 100.

You're right about both. Didn't remember us getting 4, but hopefully that's a good sign for this year, especially with Houston possibly playing their way in also.

 

[ucjoet]

As stated in other threads or above. The good news is that we have an easier path to finals, the bad news these wins do not help our RPI as much.

The new perfect scenario is to win tomorrow at 1pm ( do not want to lose at 1pm, and then have to win 2nd game). This would also hurt our RPI. Have Houston and Tulane play 2 games ( depletes pitching staff). So we would go into finals rested and on a hot streak. I guess Tulane would be a better team to face in finals. Higher RPI and also do not want to give Houston a chance to get back into NCAA tourney consideration.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
2 - 0 / 1.000 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 35-22 / .614..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 49.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - third

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal

 

[huskymedic]

Baseball America - WEDNESDAY BUBBLE WRAP
>>American -- Good news and bad news for Connecticut, the American’s lone bubble dweller. Most important, the Huskies won their opener against Memphis to climb to No. 51 in the RPI, ever closer to at-large territory. The good news/bad news comes in with East Carolina, the No. 2 seed, getting upset by No. 7 seed South Florida in the other opening round game in that bracket. So, UConn gets USF, the No. 159 RPI team, in the next round. Good for UConn’s chances of making a deeper run, but bad for the fact that a loss to USF would be highly damaging, and the may not get a chance at a resume-boosting win against the Pirates.<<

Thursday Bubble Wrap: American Opens Up

>>American -- Connecticut took care of South Florida and is just a win away from the championship game, its RPI climbing to No. 48 in the process. They Huskies will get the day off Friday and await the winner of an elimination game between USF and Memphis, which eliminated East Carolina. As with Thursday’s game, neither of those potential opponents will do much to help UConn’s RPI, but they do provide a lighter path to the title game.

Beyond what UConn’s doing, the American is suddenly well on its way to becoming a three-bid league, with ECU getting knocked out and top-seed Tulane dropping into the losers bracket after getting beat by Houston. UH could get into the at-large picture, but with an RPI of 63 and having gone just 11-12 in the conference in the regular-season, it’s an uphill battle. If the AAC does come down to a UConn-Houston title game, it’s doubtful the loser could still get in, especially if it’s Houston. But nonetheless the AAC is another Tulane loss away from assuring itself of a third bid. The Green Wave plays Central Florida in an elimination game Friday.<<

C'mon UCF:

GreenWaveBSB12:32pm via TweetDeck
Alex Massey retires 'em in order again.#Tulane takes a 1-0 lead to T7!#RollWave

 

[huskymedic]

Thursday Bubble Wrap: American Opens Up

>>American -- Connecticut took care of South Florida and is just a win away from the championship game, its RPI climbing to No. 48 in the process. They Huskies will get the day off Friday and await the winner of an elimination game between USF and Memphis, which eliminated East Carolina. As with Thursday’s game, neither of those potential opponents will do much to help UConn’s RPI, but they do provide a lighter path to the title game.

Beyond what UConn’s doing, the American is suddenly well on its way to becoming a three-bid league, with ECU getting knocked out and top-seed Tulane dropping into the losers bracket after getting beat by Houston. UH could get into the at-large picture, but with an RPI of 63 and having gone just 11-12 in the conference in the regular-season, it’s an uphill battle. If the AAC does come down to a UConn-Houston title game, it’s doubtful the loser could still get in, especially if it’s Houston. But nonetheless the AAC is another Tulane loss away from assuring itself of a third bid. The Green Wave plays Central Florida in an elimination game Friday.<<

C'mon UCF:

GreenWaveBSB12:32pm via TweetDeck
Alex Massey retires 'em in order again.#Tulane takes a 1-0 lead to T7!#RollWave

Tulane takes out UCF 5-0. Guess we need to take matters into our own hands and just go win the damn thing!

 

[huskymedic]

Saturday Bubble Wrap: Cougars Making A Run - BaseballAmerica.com

>> American -- The AAC is officially guaranteed to be a three-bid league after Houston eliminated top-seed Tulane on Saturday. You can see highlights here. The Cougars will face Connecticut on Sunday for the automatic bid, with the winner joining Tulane and East Carolina in the NCAA field. The question is, could the loser also get in and make the American a four-bid league? For UConn, the answer is probably no. The Huskies made it to the title game, but not before losing once to Memphis—they were able to come back and win an if-necessary game—which hit their RPI down to No. 60. Should they lose to UH and fall another couple spots, they’re likely done for. On the other side, Houston is up to No. 53 after scoring a pair of win against Tulane this week. The Cougars were largely off the at-large radar after going just 11-12 in the AAC in the regular season, but they do have a respectable 9-10 record against the top 50 and have finished well, going 11-4 in their last 15 games heading into Sunday. The RPI would still be in a precarious position with a loss to UConn, but UH is the team that would have a better chance, albeit not a great one, should it come out on the wrong end of that game.<<

 

[huskypantz]

Hey @ucjoet - great job again on the thread this year. Your projections are really right on as usual, it's fun to follow allow and cheer for the beisbol huskies. And even sweeter when we get to celebrate another postseason trip to the NCAA's. Thanks and looking forward to seeing this again next season!!!

 

[ucjoet]

Very happy to have won the AAC tourney yesterday. Thinking we would not have gotten in with a loss. Below is my last graph of this year. Hopefully many of you enjoy this. It personally keeps me involved in the baseball season.

Also want to thank the posters that are much more knowledgeable than I about the team. Your post prior to , during and after game are very enjoyable and informative. Don't want to single anyone of you out, because I am sure I would miss someone. But we can all figure out who you are.

As you know my graph below is far from an exact science. But my Post season criteria chart was pretty close to being right on ( pure luck) .

Now lets go out and win some games in NCAA tourney.

Looking forward to posting graph info next year.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
4 - 1 / .800 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 37-23 / .617..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal

 

[huskymedic]

Very happy to have won the AAC tourney yesterday. Thinking we would not have gotten in with a loss. Below is my last graph of this year. Hopefully many of you enjoy this. It personally keeps me involved in the baseball season.

Also want to thank the posters that are much more knowledgeable than I about the team. Your post prior to , during and after game are very enjoyable and informative. Don't want to single anyone of you out, because I am sure I would miss someone. But we can all figure out who you are.

As you know my graph below is far from an exact science. But my Post season criteria chart was pretty close to being right on ( pure luck) .

Now lets go out and win some games in NCAA tourney.

Looking forward to posting graph info next year.




current record . season goal
14 - 9 / .609 ..... 14 - 10 / .583 - AAC regular season
4 - 1 / .800 .....2-2 / .500 - AAC tourney
11 - 4 / .733... 12 - 3 / .800 - Northeast games
8 - 9/ .471 .... 10 - 7 / .588 - Other games


Post season Criteria
(1) 37-23 / .617..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 51.... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - first

CHART Code
red = below goal
blue = at goal
green = above goal