Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

[cferraro04]

I don't think I was being too optimistic by expecting Heather to score one more basket per game and to pull down 1.4 more rebounds per game than last year. Remember Michala was injured and recovering all last year...she played minimal minutes and was mildly productive. I expect that this year will be a much better year for her and again I am only expecting her to score one more basket per game and to pull down one more rebound per game.

Laura Engeln is a good basketball player...she would probably start for a lot of division I schools. At times last year she was lost and didn't understand the offensive and defensive sets of the UConn system...but in spite of that she knocked down some pretty shots, especially that little jumper she has from the left side of the basket. Expecting her to consistently score 3 points more and basically rebound the same with one more rebound every two games isn't asking much.

There is no way that UConn's opponent will average high 60's and low 70's...UConn's defense will be much too good for that. Will some of the elite teams be able to score 70 and 80 points? Sure, some will. However, by and large most teams are going to get blown out and UConn is going to hold most teams to mid 50's and high 40's...this team is going to be quick on quick when it comes to defense...count on it.

With regards to my method of figuring rebounding stats... DD had it about right. I looked at last year's production...taking into consideration that we had Maya out there grabbing 9 rebounds a game... If Maya isn't there that rebound is either going to be grabbed by the opposition or by one of our players. So, it stands to reason that at least half of those rebounds are going to be gotten by our players...especially considering that defensive rebounding is a product of boxing out and being in position to prevent the other team from getting the offensive put-back. So increasing our returning players totals slightly was a no-brainer.

Keep in mind, also, that Stefanie was two different players when you consider her numbers in the first half of the season (while Samarie was at UConn) and the second half of the season (post Samarie). The numbers I assigned her were consistent with the second half of her season going forward to the post season. I am confident that she will perform even better than she did last year...so I may be a little on the conservative side with Stefanie.

I think Bria is a scoring machine but she did not have to fill that role often as long as we had all everything Maya Moore. Even so there were a couple of games where Bria showed what she was capable of...and I expect her to do that more often this year...I think I am on the conservative side with her as well.

Tiffany has a lot to prove this year...it is her last year, pre-WNBA year...she was inconsistent last year...I have been told by those who have seen her this year that she is on a mission to put last year behind her and to have her best year.

Kelly Faris has worked on her shooting all summer, I would be amazed if she didn't look to score more this year...she will always fill up the stat sheet in the other categories.

KML is everything that is said about her...she lived up to her hype in USA basketball...and she was surrounded by elite players...In Europe she was knocking down threes in every game went for 6 in one game...she will be a scoring machine...and if she cracks the starting line-up as she is expected to do...my numbers for her are also conservative. By the way she is a tremendous rebounder.

Kiah Stokes is a big body...I have seen her play...she takes up a lot of space under the basket...she is a blocking machine...she also grabs every rebound that comes near her. She needs work on getting her shot and scoring but two baskets per game is quite doable for her. Then there is

Brianna Banks...a lot is being said about her first step, her defense, her speed...many think she is a Tiffany Hayes type of player but more tenacious on defense...I think she will surprise many people this year. I may have given her a couple of points too many and maybe a couple of rebounds too many...but that being said...given how conservative I was with other players...I think you can indulge me with Brianna...who knows we may both be pleasantly surprised.

Now for the "X" factor...Caroline Doty...I didn't even include her in the stats...she didn't play last year and a lot will depend on her staying healthy. That being said, there is no reason for her not to remain healthy and to not play significant minutes...with the "X" factor UConn becomes rather formidable...just too many options, too much fire power...and great defense at every position.

 

[cferraro04]

UConnfan68...it was tough for me to acknowledge that we might lose 3 or 4 games...believe me I would love to embrace Tony C's optimism but the loss of Maya Moore...is going to have consequences. I hate it when our ladies lose...but every now and then fandom has to give way to realism. We will be bringing in 3 new players, 2 players who have been injured (Michala and Caroline) and asking a couple of players who haven't contributed all that much to do a little more...(Heather and Laura)...so I expect there to be a learning curve. I also recognize that we have a whole lot of talent on this team and I believe our coaching staff is the best there is...so I fully expect after a couple or a few hiccups I think we will hit our stride in time to make a championship run... I believe we are a final four team and we will challenge for the championship.

 

[connboy77]

UCONN will be very, very good this year. They will have much more of a balanced attack then they had last year. I know that you can't possibly replace a Maya Moore, but I believe that if everyone stays healthy UCONN will have many scoring options. I have complete confidence that UCONN will at least make the final four.

 

[bruinbball]

I don't think I was being too optimistic by expecting Heather to score one more basket per game and to pull down 1.4 more rebounds per game than last year. Remember Michala was injured and recovering all last year...she played minimal minutes and was mildly productive. I expect that this year will be a much better year for her and again I am only expecting her to score one more basket per game and to pull down one more rebound per game.

Laura Engeln is a good basketball player...she would probably start for a lot of division I schools. At times last year she was lost and didn't understand the offensive and defensive sets of the UConn system...but in spite of that she knocked down some pretty shots, especially that little jumper she has from the left side of the basket. Expecting her to consistently score 3 points more and basically rebound the same with one more rebound every two games isn't asking much.

There is no way that UConn's opponent will average high 60's and low 70's...UConn's defense will be much too good for that. Will some of the elite teams be able to score 70 and 80 points? Sure, some will. However, by and large most teams are going to get blown out and UConn is going to hold most teams to mid 50's and high 40's...this team is going to be quick on quick when it comes to defense...count on it.

With regards to my method of figuring rebounding stats... DD had it about right. I looked at last year's production...taking into consideration that we had Maya out there grabbing 9 rebounds a game... If Maya isn't there that rebound is either going to be grabbed by the opposition or by one of our players. So, it stands to reason that at least half of those rebounds are going to be gotten by our players...especially considering that defensive rebounding is a product of boxing out and being in position to prevent the other team from getting the offensive put-back. So increasing our returning players totals slightly was a no-brainer.

Keep in mind, also, that Stefanie was two different players when you consider her numbers in the first half of the season (while Samarie was at UConn) and the second half of the season (post Samarie). The numbers I assigned her were consistent with the second half of her season going forward to the post season. I am confident that she will perform even better than she did last year...so I may be a little on the conservative side with Stefanie.

I think Bria is a scoring machine but she did not have to fill that role often as long as we had all everything Maya Moore. Even so there were a couple of games where Bria showed what she was capable of...and I expect her to do that more often this year...I think I am on the conservative side with her as well.

Tiffany has a lot to prove this year...it is her last year, pre-WNBA year...she was inconsistent last year...I have been told by those who have seen her this year that she is on a mission to put last year behind her and to have her best year.

Kelly Faris has worked on her shooting all summer, I would be amazed if she didn't look to score more this year...she will always fill up the stat sheet in the other categories.

KML is everything that is said about her...she lived up to her hype in USA basketball...and she was surrounded by elite players...In Europe she was knocking down threes in every game went for 6 in one game...she will be a scoring machine...and if she cracks the starting line-up as she is expected to do...my numbers for her are also conservative. By the way she is a tremendous rebounder.

Kiah Stokes is a big body...I have seen her play...she takes up a lot of space under the basket...she is a blocking machine...she also grabs every rebound that comes near her. She needs work on getting her shot and scoring but two baskets per game is quite doable for her. Then there is

Brianna Banks...a lot is being said about her first step, her defense, her speed...many think she is a Tiffany Hayes type of player but more tenacious on defense...I think she will surprise many people this year. I may have given her a couple of points too many and maybe a couple of rebounds too many...but that being said...given how conservative I was with other players...I think you can indulge me with Brianna...who knows we may both be pleasantly surprised.

Now for the "X" factor...Caroline Doty...I didn't even include her in the stats...she didn't play last year and a lot will depend on her staying healthy. That being said, there is no reason for her not to remain healthy and to not play significant minutes...with the "X" factor UConn becomes rather formidable...just too many options, too much fire power...and great defense at every position.

I think Kelly will be in the 9-10 point range, but I don't see her rebounds dipping below 7, especially with Maya gone.

 

[Kevin G]

I am really really excited about this year. I think we do have some good balance but I am unsure about who will be our "go to" player when we need a bucket. I don't want to be negative, but are those numbers against the teams UCONN played during their Italy tour? Those teams were subpar according to Geno and I do not want to get excited about them...unless they came from Big East opponents. With all that said, I also believe UCONN can make the FF this year. Each player has a role and so far they are living up to it.

GO UCONN

 

[cferraro04]

No Kevin...the numbers are based on last years numbers and what I have been able to gather from articles, press releases and personal observation of our incoming players. The Italy tour was basically about building team chemistry and giving our coaching staff an opportunity to see the team play together.

 

[Tonyc]

Why UConn will be a FF team this year? They will be very hard to defend. There arent many teams that will be able to stop Stef offensively. Opponets just dont have the depth in the middle to do that. The O sisters are quick but shorter, Griner is big but must avoid foul trouble for Baylor to be effective. TAM with Kelsey Bone in the middle will also have to avoid foul trouble .

Stef has a very good outside shot and a high low with Kiah is going to be very tuff to defend. With that said doubleing down on Stef will leave some one open. Most teams do not defend the perimiter very well. With the outside shooters UConn has this year it will even make it harder to defend UConns perimiter shooters who can also take the ball to the rim, and UConns passing game if far superior then most opponets they will face this season.

So if your an opponet playing defense againest UConn two players you will have to pay close attention to are Stef and KML who is almost automatic from the outside. Thats no easy task.

Another question you have to ask yourself is how many teams will score over 50 pts againest Uconn and how many opponets can keep UConn from scoring 70pts. UConn has alot of depth this season some of it is inexperienced and untested at the college level. I expect Bria to show improvement each game. She is a big time player and this season will be the season where she can show her stuff. She wont be deferring to Maya like last season and this season she has a year under her belt.

This season will be very exciting. We are going to make mistakes. At Baylor will be a real test and if UConn is on I can see a big win. TAM has lost alot as has ND but ND is always a tuff game. Stanford with new guards who are pretty good will be another tuff test. I can see us winning all these games by double digets and we may lose a game or two but we wont be blown out. I think alot of people will be in for a real surprise when they see UConn this season. I think they will be better then advertised.

 

[jdubct]

I'd like to wait to evaluate Uconn relative to the other teams until later in the season as the young team matures. Among the top contenders for the final four are TN, Baylor, TAM, Stanford, and Notre Dame. I'm sure there are others.

 

[Phil]

There's a lot of potential contenders this year.

 

[Sonny44]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

I think UCONN will be a final 1 team this year.

 

[EricLA]

There's a lot of potential contenders this year.

this format is different in the old formats in that there is no thread view so there's no way to tell who you were responding to... it makes the "reply to" option even more crucial for partially brain damaged folks like myself!

 

[EricLA]

I think UCONN will be a final 1 team this year.

i'll have some of what he's having! i like the way you think!

 

[Icebear]

this format is different in the old formats in that there is no thread view so there's no way to tell who you were responding to... it makes the "reply to" option even more crucial for partially brain damaged folks like myself!

The preferences of different people for the topic vs thread view has always fascinated me. I have probably checked the thread view 3 times in 5 years and posted to it once.

 

[Cafe Poliziano]

The Biggest reason we will be a FF and beyond team is that we have a bench that will go a long way to filling in for the missing Maya.

Go Uconn !!!!!!!

 

[cferraro04]

I continue to hold the belief that comparing this team as better or worse than last year's team is an exercise in futility. To begin with you simply can't and won't replace Maya Moore. She will go down as either the best or the 2nd best to ever play at UConn. I'm in the best camp. What I contend is that this team relative to this years competition will find a way to get the job done. The question is what is the job. Of course, it is the belief of most UConn fans that it is their birthright to win the national championship. This view is of course extremely unrealistic. What is realistic is we have a bonifide chance to make the final four. Once in the final four anything can happen...ask Texas A & M...who besides Texas A & M fans had them going all the way on their NCAA bracketts? I have made my case why this team relative to this years competition will be an offensive juggernaut. I also believe that UConn will be one of the top 10 defenses in NCAA women's basketball.

The question that UConn will have to answer at some point during the season...is who is going to be that player who emerges who, like Maya, will refuse for UConn to lose? Do we have this kind of player in the mix from this group of players? We will not need this player to emerge every game...but there will be 6-8 games where we will need this player to step up. Could it be done by committee? Sure...but, history shows teams that have the go-to player tend make it very far in March...those that don't...fall short.

As a fan of UConn, I think this year and next year are going to be exciting...why? Because legends will be created around UConn's 2013-2014 team...winning will be expected, and anything less than a national championship will be a big disappointment. These next two years, on the other hand, for UConn fans will be very exciting. We will have the opportunity to watch the building blocks of a legendary team being put in place...we will experience some very difficult game situations and we will see the humaness of a UConn team before it reaches legendary status. These will be times where the UConn players are cutting their teeth, building their resolve, learning how to play through adversity. These will be times where we will experience some achievements that we weren't expecting and hence there will be drama during these next two years which will be relegated to routine during the 2013-2014 season. I know by now those people who are not UConn fans are probably sticking their fingers in their throats in order to upchuck this sappy post...but knowing the quality of the players UConn has coming in this year and next year I believe that I am being very realistic in my expectations. I think Geno, Pat, Walsh, Mulkey, Blair, Muffet McGraw, etc are all great coaches but without the players it is hard to get it done. I know that there are no guarantees and that winning a championship is very difficult...but having the horses is a great start.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Nothing at all sappy about your post. Good job!

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks VAUConnFan

 

[doggydaddy]

Of course, it is the belief of most UConn fans that it is their birthright to win the national championship.

Replace "most" with "some" and I'd agree with you.

 

[cferraro04]

Well, Doggydaddy...I'll have you know that I spent 764 days counting every UConn fan in the state of CT and personally called every single one of them...and 14,342,589 of them told me in very clear terms that they believe that it is UConn's birthright to win a national championship.

 

[Icebear]

Including at least one in PA, too.