Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

[cferraro04]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds



Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

 

[Icebear]

I think the defense may be better balanced and stronger on the perimeter this year than last year. I would guess that at worst they may give up two more points per game.

 

[ndmb]

I'm not gonna lie; I was never a fan of these kinds of predictions as a measure of overall production. Given how dependent each players numbers are on their minutes and the performance of others, I think it's difficult to use these for anything other than a prediction of shot distribution.

 

[cferraro04]

Bottom line is that players will average a certain amount of points and rebounds and predicting what that will be is as good as any other forecaster in predicting future results. I have engaged in this practice for the past 10 years and I have found it not only fairly interesting but I have been pretty close in my previous predictions. Of course, one can never account for injuries, transfers, chemistry problems or a player earning their way into Geno's doghouse...hence I left Caroline Doty off my prediction chart...But adding her in and assuming she plays healthy for the year...only makes this team more formidable...and supports my original premise further.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

The guy with the net:

 

[cferraro04]

True MilfordHusky but no matter how good a coach he is he has to have the horses and the horses have to pull together in the same direction.

 

[MilfordHusky]

True MilfordHusky but no matter how good a coach he is he has to have the horses and the horses have to pull together in the same direction.

I agree, CF.

Here's reason #2. The kid with the "Lewis Launch":

 

[cferraro04]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

 

[EricLA]

i wonder if this is another of those threads that someone's going to say "why bother since we have no idea". well i say bother. i think Kelly, Kiah, Brianna, Heather, Michala and Lauren will probably average about 2 PPG less than what you are projecting which would put us about 84 PPG for the season. that seems closer to correct to me. but it's fun to speculate!!

 

[MilfordHusky]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

Some kids like pressure. The old #23 and the new #23 are among them. Kaleena takes the tough shots, but only good shots..

 

[cferraro04]

i wonder if this is another of those threads that someone's going to say "why bother since we have no idea". well i say bother. i think Kelly, Kiah, Brianna, Heather, Michala and Lauren will probably average about 2 PPG less than what you are projecting which would put us about 84 PPG for the season. that seems closer to correct to me. but it's fun to speculate!!

Remember Eric, I discounted my numbers by 15 percent (for my UConn bias) which gives me 14 points to play with...and my not including Caroline Doty is gravy...so if you take away 2 points from each player you listed...that would account for 12 points but then you have to add in Caroline's points...and well you begin to get the picture we have a team that will be an offensive juggernaut this year. They are going to score a lot of points and they are going to be fun to watch.

 

[MilfordHusky]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

You can't see the defender's mouth, but if you could, you would read the lips as, "Oh, sh_t."

 

[EricLA]

Remember Eric, I discounted my numbers by 15 percent (for my UConn bias) which gives me 14 points to play with...and my not including Caroline Doty is gravy...so if you take away 2 points from each player you listed...that would account for 12 points but then you have to add in Caroline's points...and well you begin to get the picture we have a team that will be an offensive juggernaut this year. They are going to score a lot of points and they are going to be fun to watch.

funny i didn't even notice she wasn't there. i'd still guess we average about 85 PPG. Caroline i think averages 6-8 PPG. i know many feel she should account for more, but i think Geno limits her minutes when he can.

i guess i'd have to take away 1 PPG for Bria, Kaleena, Tiff, and Stef, but it's starting to get to the point where i say - yeah, but they may well score that many PPG. i think UCONN will have it's fair share of fast break easy baskets, but it's how we do in the half court and how much of the shot clock we use that will determine if we average closer to 90 or closer to 80 PPG. great thread tho and fun to think about...

 

[Kibitzer]

I have always viewed with skepticism any predictions about players by evaluators who have not yet seen these players actually play, live, in games. Then I find myself amazed when some of these enthusiastic prognosticators come so close with their projections.

I have come to permit one pre-season prediction annually. Keeps me involved but not so much that I catch too much flack from fellow fans/friends (a little alliteration shoehorned into this post).

Last year, about this time, I bravely predicted that Bria Hartley would be THE point guard by January. A pretty safe bet, to be sure, and spot-on accurate.

This season I will make two predictions.

One is that Kaleena will be a starter by January. (Don't ask what position, I won't even hazard a guess.)

The other is that from January until season's end, she will compete with Dolson for highest ppg average.

And I hope Hayes proves me wrong.

 

[Wbbfan1]

What about Caroline Doty? She will play and contribute significant minutes.

 

[cferraro04]

I addressed that already. I purposely left her out...as I see her as the "X" factor. If she stays healthy and plays significant minutes...it just makes this team much more formidable. It is hard to account for unforseen circumstances...such as injuries, transfers, players who develop into chemistry problems or those who earn their way into Geno's dog house. So I discounted my estimates by 15 percent giving me 14 points to play with and I purposely left Doty off the estimates as my insurance policy. I think this team scores a lot of points...and that they are scary good by March. They will definitely be fun to watch.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

This post lights up my day.

 

[doggydaddy]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94
char
Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

Charles, I always enjoy your pre-season prediction post. It's always optomistic but realistic at the same time.

Here is a fun look at it. Each player at 15% less.

Tiffany Hayes - 13.6 points / 5.1 rebounds
Bria Hartley - 12.75 points / 4.25 rebounds
Kelly Faris - 8.5 points / 5.95 rebounds
Stefanie Dolson - 12.75 points / 7.65 rebounds
Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 10.2 points / 5.1 rebounds
Kiah Stokes - 4.25 points / 4.25 rebounds
Brianna Banks - 5.95 points / 4.25 rebounds
Heather Buck - 4.25 points / 3.4 rebounds
Michala Johnson - 3.4 points / 2.5 rebounds
Laura Engeln - 4.25 points / 1.3 rebounds

I'm very optomistic about Doty this year. I would see her close to double digit in scoring.
There is no reason not to think she can stay healthy.
1. The knee sprain had nothing to with her prior ACL problems.
2. She has had a full year to recover.
3. They used a tendon from her own body (right knee) to graft the left knee. Last time they used a cadaver and I'm a firm believer that people do better with a tendon from their own body than a cadaver.
4. Other players as an example. I know...Shea, Shea, Shea. But how about Jackie Gemoles (sp)??

And if she plays 20 minutes a game, count on great shooting (For VAUconnfan, better than her 35%) and terrific point play. 10 points and 5 assists.

Final Four for sure.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks DD...if we take the figures above and add in Doty we get 89.9 points a game...I don't believe there has ever been a team to average 90 points a game...I don't think that will happen with this team either. However, there will be one thing that should prove interesting this year. When Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas...he may not be able to stop the reserves from putting points up on the board...lol

It is going to be raining threes this year. Bria, Tiffany, Caroline, KML and Kelly (she worked on her shot all summer...don't be surprised to see her scoring more this year)...throw in a couple of threes by reserve Laura Engeln or possibly Brianna Banks... Wow! Teams are going to go crazy with all that fire power...and when they try to stop it...in goes the ball to Stefanie, Kiah, Heather and Michala....it is going to be mad fun.

 

[Zorro]

And should we say an aggregate of mebbe 8-10 steals and 6-8 blocked shots per game?

 

[VAMike23]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

_____________________________________________
How did you come up with these rebounding estimates?

 

[Jonathan Husky]

Thanks DD...if we take the figures above and add in Doty we get 89.9 points a game...I don't believe there has ever been a team to average 90 points a game...I don't think that will happen with this team either. However, there will be one thing that should prove interesting this year. When Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas...he may not be able to stop the reserves from putting points up on the board...lol

It is going to be raining threes this year. Bria, Tiffany, Caroline, KML and Kelly (she worked on her shot all summer...don't be surprised to see her scoring more this year)...throw in a couple of threes by reserve Laura Engeln or possibly Brianna Banks... Wow! Teams are going to go crazy with all that fire power...and when they try to stop it...in goes the ball to Stefanie, Kiah, Heather and Michala....it is going to be mad fun.

I think you are optomistic to give points and rebounds per game to Heather, Lauren and Michala who probably will only play at garbage time.

I agree with Kib that KLM will be starting at mid season. Before then she will still play 20-25 minutes a game. She should be able to play both the wing and the power forward.

My prediction is that the team will average 80 per game and hold the opposition to high 60's or low 70's in all the games we win. Too hard for me to predict individuals scoring averages.

 

[doggydaddy]

_____________________________________________
How did you come up with these rebounding estimates?

Looks to me that for current players he used last years numbers to make an educated guess. And for the new players, it's just a guess based on his many years of watching women's basketball.

Remember, his numbers for real were 15% less.

Here are those numbers with last years next to them.

Tiffany Hayes - 13.6 points / 5.1 rebounds Last Season 13.7 / 4.6
Bria Hartley - 12.75 points / 4.25 rebounds Last Season 12.4 / 3.6
Kelly Faris - 8.5 points / 5.95 rebounds Last Season 7.8 / 7.6
Stefanie Dolson - 12.75 points / 7.65 rebounds Last Season 10.2 / 6.1
Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 10.2 points / 5.1 rebounds
Kiah Stokes - 4.25 points / 4.25 rebounds
Brianna Banks - 5.95 points / 4.25 rebounds
Heather Buck - 4.25 points / 3.4 rebounds Last Season 2.1 / 2.0
Michala Johnson - 3.4 points / 2.5 rebounds Last Season 1.3 / 1.5
Laura Engeln - 4.25 points / 1.3 rebounds Last Season 1.3 / .7
All within reach.

 

[uconnfan68]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

What kind of fan are you? Lose as many as 4 games? No way!

 

[UConnCat]

I think you are optomistic to give points and rebounds per game to Heather, Lauren and Michala who probably will only play at garbage time.

I agree with Kib that KLM will be starting at mid season. Before then she will still play 20-25 minutes a game. She should be able to play both the wing and the power forward.

My prediction is that the team will average 80 per game and hold the opposition to high 60's or low 70's in all the games we win. Too hard for me to predict individuals scoring averages.

High 60's or low 70's in the games it wins? Since 1992, UConn's opponents' (losers and winners) averaged more than 60 points exactly once, in the '98-'99 season. The '98-99 team gave up an average of 61.5 points per game that season but also scored 91.2 points per game, the highest scoring average in team history (I think). Since 2000, UConn's opponents (winners and losers) have averaged less than 55 points per game in all but one season. Are you really predicting that the teams that lose to UConn this season will score upwards of 15 points more per game? Or have I misunderstood what you're saying?