Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

[cferraro04]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds



Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

 

[Icebear]

I think the defense may be better balanced and stronger on the perimeter this year than last year. I would guess that at worst they may give up two more points per game.

 

[ndmb]

I'm not gonna lie; I was never a fan of these kinds of predictions as a measure of overall production. Given how dependent each players numbers are on their minutes and the performance of others, I think it's difficult to use these for anything other than a prediction of shot distribution.

 

[cferraro04]

Bottom line is that players will average a certain amount of points and rebounds and predicting what that will be is as good as any other forecaster in predicting future results. I have engaged in this practice for the past 10 years and I have found it not only fairly interesting but I have been pretty close in my previous predictions. Of course, one can never account for injuries, transfers, chemistry problems or a player earning their way into Geno's doghouse...hence I left Caroline Doty off my prediction chart...But adding her in and assuming she plays healthy for the year...only makes this team more formidable...and supports my original premise further.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

The guy with the net:

 

[cferraro04]

True MilfordHusky but no matter how good a coach he is he has to have the horses and the horses have to pull together in the same direction.

 

[MilfordHusky]

True MilfordHusky but no matter how good a coach he is he has to have the horses and the horses have to pull together in the same direction.

I agree, CF.

Here's reason #2. The kid with the "Lewis Launch":

 

[cferraro04]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

 

[EricSD]

i wonder if this is another of those threads that someone's going to say "why bother since we have no idea". well i say bother. i think Kelly, Kiah, Brianna, Heather, Michala and Lauren will probably average about 2 PPG less than what you are projecting which would put us about 84 PPG for the season. that seems closer to correct to me. but it's fun to speculate!!

 

[MilfordHusky]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

Some kids like pressure. The old #23 and the new #23 are among them. Kaleena takes the tough shots, but only good shots..

 

[cferraro04]

i wonder if this is another of those threads that someone's going to say "why bother since we have no idea". well i say bother. i think Kelly, Kiah, Brianna, Heather, Michala and Lauren will probably average about 2 PPG less than what you are projecting which would put us about 84 PPG for the season. that seems closer to correct to me. but it's fun to speculate!!

Remember Eric, I discounted my numbers by 15 percent (for my UConn bias) which gives me 14 points to play with...and my not including Caroline Doty is gravy...so if you take away 2 points from each player you listed...that would account for 12 points but then you have to add in Caroline's points...and well you begin to get the picture we have a team that will be an offensive juggernaut this year. They are going to score a lot of points and they are going to be fun to watch.

 

[MilfordHusky]

That jumper is looking good... I think the number on her jersey must give her a little more lift...lol I only gave her 12 points a game (even though I think she is quite capable of more) because I believe she will defer to her upper class mates being a freshman and all.

You can't see the defender's mouth, but if you could, you would read the lips as, "Oh, sh_t."

 

[EricSD]

Remember Eric, I discounted my numbers by 15 percent (for my UConn bias) which gives me 14 points to play with...and my not including Caroline Doty is gravy...so if you take away 2 points from each player you listed...that would account for 12 points but then you have to add in Caroline's points...and well you begin to get the picture we have a team that will be an offensive juggernaut this year. They are going to score a lot of points and they are going to be fun to watch.

funny i didn't even notice she wasn't there. i'd still guess we average about 85 PPG. Caroline i think averages 6-8 PPG. i know many feel she should account for more, but i think Geno limits her minutes when he can.

i guess i'd have to take away 1 PPG for Bria, Kaleena, Tiff, and Stef, but it's starting to get to the point where i say - yeah, but they may well score that many PPG. i think UCONN will have it's fair share of fast break easy baskets, but it's how we do in the half court and how much of the shot clock we use that will determine if we average closer to 90 or closer to 80 PPG. great thread tho and fun to think about...

 

[Kibitzer]

I have always viewed with skepticism any predictions about players by evaluators who have not yet seen these players actually play, live, in games. Then I find myself amazed when some of these enthusiastic prognosticators come so close with their projections.

I have come to permit one pre-season prediction annually. Keeps me involved but not so much that I catch too much flack from fellow fans/friends (a little alliteration shoehorned into this post).

Last year, about this time, I bravely predicted that Bria Hartley would be THE point guard by January. A pretty safe bet, to be sure, and spot-on accurate.

This season I will make two predictions.

One is that Kaleena will be a starter by January. (Don't ask what position, I won't even hazard a guess.)

The other is that from January until season's end, she will compete with Dolson for highest ppg average.

And I hope Hayes proves me wrong.

 

[Wbbfan1]

What about Caroline Doty? She will play and contribute significant minutes.

 

[cferraro04]

I addressed that already. I purposely left her out...as I see her as the "X" factor. If she stays healthy and plays significant minutes...it just makes this team much more formidable. It is hard to account for unforseen circumstances...such as injuries, transfers, players who develop into chemistry problems or those who earn their way into Geno's dog house. So I discounted my estimates by 15 percent giving me 14 points to play with and I purposely left Doty off the estimates as my insurance policy. I think this team scores a lot of points...and that they are scary good by March. They will definitely be fun to watch.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

This post lights up my day.

 

[doggydaddy]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94
char
Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

Charles, I always enjoy your pre-season prediction post. It's always optomistic but realistic at the same time.

Here is a fun look at it. Each player at 15% less.

Tiffany Hayes - 13.6 points / 5.1 rebounds
Bria Hartley - 12.75 points / 4.25 rebounds
Kelly Faris - 8.5 points / 5.95 rebounds
Stefanie Dolson - 12.75 points / 7.65 rebounds
Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 10.2 points / 5.1 rebounds
Kiah Stokes - 4.25 points / 4.25 rebounds
Brianna Banks - 5.95 points / 4.25 rebounds
Heather Buck - 4.25 points / 3.4 rebounds
Michala Johnson - 3.4 points / 2.5 rebounds
Laura Engeln - 4.25 points / 1.3 rebounds

I'm very optomistic about Doty this year. I would see her close to double digit in scoring.
There is no reason not to think she can stay healthy.
1. The knee sprain had nothing to with her prior ACL problems.
2. She has had a full year to recover.
3. They used a tendon from her own body (right knee) to graft the left knee. Last time they used a cadaver and I'm a firm believer that people do better with a tendon from their own body than a cadaver.
4. Other players as an example. I know...Shea, Shea, Shea. But how about Jackie Gemoles (sp)??

And if she plays 20 minutes a game, count on great shooting (For VAUconnfan, better than her 35%) and terrific point play. 10 points and 5 assists.

Final Four for sure.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks DD...if we take the figures above and add in Doty we get 89.9 points a game...I don't believe there has ever been a team to average 90 points a game...I don't think that will happen with this team either. However, there will be one thing that should prove interesting this year. When Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas...he may not be able to stop the reserves from putting points up on the board...lol

It is going to be raining threes this year. Bria, Tiffany, Caroline, KML and Kelly (she worked on her shot all summer...don't be surprised to see her scoring more this year)...throw in a couple of threes by reserve Laura Engeln or possibly Brianna Banks... Wow! Teams are going to go crazy with all that fire power...and when they try to stop it...in goes the ball to Stefanie, Kiah, Heather and Michala....it is going to be mad fun.

 

[Zorro]

And should we say an aggregate of mebbe 8-10 steals and 6-8 blocked shots per game?

 

[VAMike23]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

Tiffany Hayes - 16 points / 6 rebounds

Bria Hartley - 15 points / 5 rebounds

Kelly Faris - 10 points / 7 rebounds

Stefanie Dolson - 15 points / 9 rebounds

Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 12 points / 6 rebounds

Kiah Stokes - 5 points / 5 rebounds

Brianna Banks - 7 points / 5 rebounds

Heather Buck - 5 points / 4 rebounds

Michala Johnson - 4 points / 3 rebounds

Laura Engeln - 5 points / 1.5 rebounds

Total points - 94

Total Rebounds - 51.5

Less 15 % for my blue colored exuberance - 79.9 points (3.3 points more than last year) and 43.35 rebounds. (1.15 more than last year) I think this team will be very good defensively and will limit opponents to approximately 55 points per game (4.9 more than last year). This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

_____________________________________________
How did you come up with these rebounding estimates?

 

[Jonathan Husky]

Thanks DD...if we take the figures above and add in Doty we get 89.9 points a game...I don't believe there has ever been a team to average 90 points a game...I don't think that will happen with this team either. However, there will be one thing that should prove interesting this year. When Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas...he may not be able to stop the reserves from putting points up on the board...lol

It is going to be raining threes this year. Bria, Tiffany, Caroline, KML and Kelly (she worked on her shot all summer...don't be surprised to see her scoring more this year)...throw in a couple of threes by reserve Laura Engeln or possibly Brianna Banks... Wow! Teams are going to go crazy with all that fire power...and when they try to stop it...in goes the ball to Stefanie, Kiah, Heather and Michala....it is going to be mad fun.

I think you are optomistic to give points and rebounds per game to Heather, Lauren and Michala who probably will only play at garbage time.

I agree with Kib that KLM will be starting at mid season. Before then she will still play 20-25 minutes a game. She should be able to play both the wing and the power forward.

My prediction is that the team will average 80 per game and hold the opposition to high 60's or low 70's in all the games we win. Too hard for me to predict individuals scoring averages.

 

[doggydaddy]

_____________________________________________
How did you come up with these rebounding estimates?

Looks to me that for current players he used last years numbers to make an educated guess. And for the new players, it's just a guess based on his many years of watching women's basketball.

Remember, his numbers for real were 15% less.

Here are those numbers with last years next to them.

Tiffany Hayes - 13.6 points / 5.1 rebounds Last Season 13.7 / 4.6
Bria Hartley - 12.75 points / 4.25 rebounds Last Season 12.4 / 3.6
Kelly Faris - 8.5 points / 5.95 rebounds Last Season 7.8 / 7.6
Stefanie Dolson - 12.75 points / 7.65 rebounds Last Season 10.2 / 6.1
Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis - 10.2 points / 5.1 rebounds
Kiah Stokes - 4.25 points / 4.25 rebounds
Brianna Banks - 5.95 points / 4.25 rebounds
Heather Buck - 4.25 points / 3.4 rebounds Last Season 2.1 / 2.0
Michala Johnson - 3.4 points / 2.5 rebounds Last Season 1.3 / 1.5
Laura Engeln - 4.25 points / 1.3 rebounds Last Season 1.3 / .7
All within reach.

 

[uconnfan68]

Why I think UConn will be a Final Four Team this coming year

This team will probably lose 2-3 games early in the season... Maybe one more later in the season...but by March they will be a very difficult out for a lot of teams.

What kind of fan are you? Lose as many as 4 games? No way!

 

[UConnCat]

I think you are optomistic to give points and rebounds per game to Heather, Lauren and Michala who probably will only play at garbage time.

I agree with Kib that KLM will be starting at mid season. Before then she will still play 20-25 minutes a game. She should be able to play both the wing and the power forward.

My prediction is that the team will average 80 per game and hold the opposition to high 60's or low 70's in all the games we win. Too hard for me to predict individuals scoring averages.

High 60's or low 70's in the games it wins? Since 1992, UConn's opponents' (losers and winners) averaged more than 60 points exactly once, in the '98-'99 season. The '98-99 team gave up an average of 61.5 points per game that season but also scored 91.2 points per game, the highest scoring average in team history (I think). Since 2000, UConn's opponents (winners and losers) have averaged less than 55 points per game in all but one season. Are you really predicting that the teams that lose to UConn this season will score upwards of 15 points more per game? Or have I misunderstood what you're saying?

 

[cferraro04]

I don't think I was being too optimistic by expecting Heather to score one more basket per game and to pull down 1.4 more rebounds per game than last year. Remember Michala was injured and recovering all last year...she played minimal minutes and was mildly productive. I expect that this year will be a much better year for her and again I am only expecting her to score one more basket per game and to pull down one more rebound per game.

Laura Engeln is a good basketball player...she would probably start for a lot of division I schools. At times last year she was lost and didn't understand the offensive and defensive sets of the UConn system...but in spite of that she knocked down some pretty shots, especially that little jumper she has from the left side of the basket. Expecting her to consistently score 3 points more and basically rebound the same with one more rebound every two games isn't asking much.

There is no way that UConn's opponent will average high 60's and low 70's...UConn's defense will be much too good for that. Will some of the elite teams be able to score 70 and 80 points? Sure, some will. However, by and large most teams are going to get blown out and UConn is going to hold most teams to mid 50's and high 40's...this team is going to be quick on quick when it comes to defense...count on it.

With regards to my method of figuring rebounding stats... DD had it about right. I looked at last year's production...taking into consideration that we had Maya out there grabbing 9 rebounds a game... If Maya isn't there that rebound is either going to be grabbed by the opposition or by one of our players. So, it stands to reason that at least half of those rebounds are going to be gotten by our players...especially considering that defensive rebounding is a product of boxing out and being in position to prevent the other team from getting the offensive put-back. So increasing our returning players totals slightly was a no-brainer.

Keep in mind, also, that Stefanie was two different players when you consider her numbers in the first half of the season (while Samarie was at UConn) and the second half of the season (post Samarie). The numbers I assigned her were consistent with the second half of her season going forward to the post season. I am confident that she will perform even better than she did last year...so I may be a little on the conservative side with Stefanie.

I think Bria is a scoring machine but she did not have to fill that role often as long as we had all everything Maya Moore. Even so there were a couple of games where Bria showed what she was capable of...and I expect her to do that more often this year...I think I am on the conservative side with her as well.

Tiffany has a lot to prove this year...it is her last year, pre-WNBA year...she was inconsistent last year...I have been told by those who have seen her this year that she is on a mission to put last year behind her and to have her best year.

Kelly Faris has worked on her shooting all summer, I would be amazed if she didn't look to score more this year...she will always fill up the stat sheet in the other categories.

KML is everything that is said about her...she lived up to her hype in USA basketball...and she was surrounded by elite players...In Europe she was knocking down threes in every game went for 6 in one game...she will be a scoring machine...and if she cracks the starting line-up as she is expected to do...my numbers for her are also conservative. By the way she is a tremendous rebounder.

Kiah Stokes is a big body...I have seen her play...she takes up a lot of space under the basket...she is a blocking machine...she also grabs every rebound that comes near her. She needs work on getting her shot and scoring but two baskets per game is quite doable for her. Then there is

Brianna Banks...a lot is being said about her first step, her defense, her speed...many think she is a Tiffany Hayes type of player but more tenacious on defense...I think she will surprise many people this year. I may have given her a couple of points too many and maybe a couple of rebounds too many...but that being said...given how conservative I was with other players...I think you can indulge me with Brianna...who knows we may both be pleasantly surprised.

Now for the "X" factor...Caroline Doty...I didn't even include her in the stats...she didn't play last year and a lot will depend on her staying healthy. That being said, there is no reason for her not to remain healthy and to not play significant minutes...with the "X" factor UConn becomes rather formidable...just too many options, too much fire power...and great defense at every position.

 

[cferraro04]

UConnfan68...it was tough for me to acknowledge that we might lose 3 or 4 games...believe me I would love to embrace Tony C's optimism but the loss of Maya Moore...is going to have consequences. I hate it when our ladies lose...but every now and then fandom has to give way to realism. We will be bringing in 3 new players, 2 players who have been injured (Michala and Caroline) and asking a couple of players who haven't contributed all that much to do a little more...(Heather and Laura)...so I expect there to be a learning curve. I also recognize that we have a whole lot of talent on this team and I believe our coaching staff is the best there is...so I fully expect after a couple or a few hiccups I think we will hit our stride in time to make a championship run... I believe we are a final four team and we will challenge for the championship.

 

[connboy77]

UCONN will be very, very good this year. They will have much more of a balanced attack then they had last year. I know that you can't possibly replace a Maya Moore, but I believe that if everyone stays healthy UCONN will have many scoring options. I have complete confidence that UCONN will at least make the final four.

 

[bruinbball]

I don't think I was being too optimistic by expecting Heather to score one more basket per game and to pull down 1.4 more rebounds per game than last year. Remember Michala was injured and recovering all last year...she played minimal minutes and was mildly productive. I expect that this year will be a much better year for her and again I am only expecting her to score one more basket per game and to pull down one more rebound per game.

Laura Engeln is a good basketball player...she would probably start for a lot of division I schools. At times last year she was lost and didn't understand the offensive and defensive sets of the UConn system...but in spite of that she knocked down some pretty shots, especially that little jumper she has from the left side of the basket. Expecting her to consistently score 3 points more and basically rebound the same with one more rebound every two games isn't asking much.

There is no way that UConn's opponent will average high 60's and low 70's...UConn's defense will be much too good for that. Will some of the elite teams be able to score 70 and 80 points? Sure, some will. However, by and large most teams are going to get blown out and UConn is going to hold most teams to mid 50's and high 40's...this team is going to be quick on quick when it comes to defense...count on it.

With regards to my method of figuring rebounding stats... DD had it about right. I looked at last year's production...taking into consideration that we had Maya out there grabbing 9 rebounds a game... If Maya isn't there that rebound is either going to be grabbed by the opposition or by one of our players. So, it stands to reason that at least half of those rebounds are going to be gotten by our players...especially considering that defensive rebounding is a product of boxing out and being in position to prevent the other team from getting the offensive put-back. So increasing our returning players totals slightly was a no-brainer.

Keep in mind, also, that Stefanie was two different players when you consider her numbers in the first half of the season (while Samarie was at UConn) and the second half of the season (post Samarie). The numbers I assigned her were consistent with the second half of her season going forward to the post season. I am confident that she will perform even better than she did last year...so I may be a little on the conservative side with Stefanie.

I think Bria is a scoring machine but she did not have to fill that role often as long as we had all everything Maya Moore. Even so there were a couple of games where Bria showed what she was capable of...and I expect her to do that more often this year...I think I am on the conservative side with her as well.

Tiffany has a lot to prove this year...it is her last year, pre-WNBA year...she was inconsistent last year...I have been told by those who have seen her this year that she is on a mission to put last year behind her and to have her best year.

Kelly Faris has worked on her shooting all summer, I would be amazed if she didn't look to score more this year...she will always fill up the stat sheet in the other categories.

KML is everything that is said about her...she lived up to her hype in USA basketball...and she was surrounded by elite players...In Europe she was knocking down threes in every game went for 6 in one game...she will be a scoring machine...and if she cracks the starting line-up as she is expected to do...my numbers for her are also conservative. By the way she is a tremendous rebounder.

Kiah Stokes is a big body...I have seen her play...she takes up a lot of space under the basket...she is a blocking machine...she also grabs every rebound that comes near her. She needs work on getting her shot and scoring but two baskets per game is quite doable for her. Then there is

Brianna Banks...a lot is being said about her first step, her defense, her speed...many think she is a Tiffany Hayes type of player but more tenacious on defense...I think she will surprise many people this year. I may have given her a couple of points too many and maybe a couple of rebounds too many...but that being said...given how conservative I was with other players...I think you can indulge me with Brianna...who knows we may both be pleasantly surprised.

Now for the "X" factor...Caroline Doty...I didn't even include her in the stats...she didn't play last year and a lot will depend on her staying healthy. That being said, there is no reason for her not to remain healthy and to not play significant minutes...with the "X" factor UConn becomes rather formidable...just too many options, too much fire power...and great defense at every position.

I think Kelly will be in the 9-10 point range, but I don't see her rebounds dipping below 7, especially with Maya gone.

 

[Kevin G]

I am really really excited about this year. I think we do have some good balance but I am unsure about who will be our "go to" player when we need a bucket. I don't want to be negative, but are those numbers against the teams UCONN played during their Italy tour? Those teams were subpar according to Geno and I do not want to get excited about them...unless they came from Big East opponents. With all that said, I also believe UCONN can make the FF this year. Each player has a role and so far they are living up to it.

GO UCONN