Why Dan Hurley says UConn’s roster is ‘screaming’ for emergence of Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Why Dan Hurley says UConn’s roster is ‘screaming’ for emergence of Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart

auror said:
Let me break it down for you.
1) Probably not worse than Ball or Mahaney. But all of them (+Stewart) rated horribly on D last year, so he's not unique in that.
2) His block and steal rates were good to fine.
3) The team's on/off defensive splits against decent or better teams were atrocious with him on the court (top 200 opponents).


Close to 14 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court.

Why was that? Well opponents shot the lights out when he was on the court. From every area of the court. You adjust for 3pt shooting (un)luck and you still get 8 points worse per 100 with him on the court.


There is some further (un)luck with the mid-range shooting while he was on the court, but can't adjust that on this site.

So what was bad? The team fouled a ton with him and off, but it was 7% worse with him on the court, and his personal foul rate was high (close to 5 fouls per 40), which is atrocious for a wing. The team gave up shots at the rim 4.4% more often AND opponents shot 57% at the rim compared to 50.7% with him off. Those are all really bad things for a defense. Considering how often he and the team fouled, you'd think they would've forced some turnovers, but no, they forced less with him on the court.

These team-level stats do have confounding variables, obviously. The on and off don't have identical teammate constructions, for one thing. The stat RAPM does adjust for that and he graded as the worst defender on the team in D-RAPM. He played slightly more with Tarris than Samson, with a 57/40 split. On the season, Reed had the better on/off defensive numbers, so Ross played more with the better defensive center and still posted those horrible team splits. The lineup data shows that his minutes with Samson were particularly horrible defensively, especially the Ross/Stewart/Samson lineups.
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Great analysis but could you give us information as to who were the guards he was on the court with. My recollection is he seldom was in a game with Hassan. Plus when he was in the game he was frequently assigned the opposing teams best player.

Regardless of last season that stretch from around 12:30 to 2:54 in the BC game his entry into the game started with Millender, Stewart, Koroma and Ball. Hurley then put in Reibe and Alex to replace Koroma and Stewart. And finally replaced Millender with Smith. So Ross got some playing time with the starters.

Does the analytics have any evidence that Ross played in a lineup last season with the starters?
 
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RuffRuff said:
Witness Uconn 2024-25 - bunch of shooters. Witness Uconn 22-23 - AJx was a terrible shooter, Castle was not a good shooter. Balanced rosters are more important than a bunch of guys who enjoy hoisting threes.

Teams always need someone to do some dirty work.
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Correct. God did not give you a 6' 7" 220lb body to hoist up 3s as your first choice shot. In fact, you shouldn't hoist at all unless left wide open if you're shooting below 35%.

Ross treats the ball as a hot potato. You're not gonna find a cutter in under 1 second...be patient with the ball Jayden. Ajax could pass.
 
Peacefrog said:
I love what Lyman brought to the team but let's not romanticize it "too" much. He had no offensive game beyond the occasional offesnive rebound and put back. In four years I think I remember him making 1 3-pointer. He was in there for one reason only and it wasn't to try and do anything on offense.
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Coming out of Detroit he was definitely more than just a defensive player. I think he was put into a purely defensive role at UConn and he excelled at it. He also was more of a sixth man after freshman year which hurt his stats.

Hard not to romanticize the player back then and thing was he was totally overshadowed in Detroit by Derrick Coleman but so was almost everyone else.

Still I would take Junior Depriest over Junior Ross.
 
Lafayette said:
Coming out of Detroit he was definitely more than just a defensive player. I think he was put into a purely defensive role at UConn and he excelled at it. He also was more of a sixth man after freshman year which hurt his stats.

Hard not to romanticize the player back then and thing was he was totally overshadowed in Detroit by Derrick Coleman but so was almost everyone else.

Still I would take Junior Depriest over Junior Ros
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I wasn't addressing anything to do with Ross. You lumped DePriest in with Caastle as examples of players that were lockdown defenders but also brought good offense along with it. Lyman did not. Not trying to knock DePriest, he was great at what he was in there to do but he didn't belong in the basket of comps you offered (guys with great defense that were also offensive threats).
 
HW611 said:
Idk man. I’m two games in and Ross is not the problem here with these numbers. I’m going to withhold some of my glowing comments before finishing. But I don’t think these numbers are right here.
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He may have contributed some on defense, but his offense was a complete no show.

Hopefully he can improve in both offense and defense this year. If he does, he will see court time; if not, he will reprise his role of last year.
 
auror said:
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Awesome.

For ha-ha's, I put a prompt into ChatGPT and this is what it came up with using a 4-game moving average output for regular-season games only for 2023-24, and 2024-25. Fricken AI...sheesh.

2023-24:
8976430a-613e-4c65-b9a0-a785c194c28b (1).png


2024-25:
5a36c164-4a8c-48c5-8025-aaa8128e033a (1).png
 
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ctchamps said:
Great analysis but could you give us information as to who were the guards he was on the court with. My recollection is he seldom was in a game with Hassan. Plus when he was in the game he was frequently assigned the opposing teams best player.

Regardless of last season that stretch from around 12:30 to 2:54 in the BC game his entry into the game started with Millender, Stewart, Koroma and Ball. Hurley then put in Reibe and Alex to replace Koroma and Stewart. And finally replaced Millender with Smith. So Ross got some playing time with the starters.

Does the analytics have any evidence that Ross played in a lineup last season with the starters?
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The bottom is the starters, the top is the starters with Ross in place of McNeeley. Not a huge sample size, but it's similar to the team's overall splits with him ON. Not good. Horrendous even. That rim% and rim FG%, yikes.
 
navery12 said:
If Stewart can play defense like he did freshman year (or hopefully a little better) or Ross can play defense like the 2nd half of the BC game then there's a clear path to additional minutes for both. Stewart is going to play regardless because of his offense, but the defensive side is what's going to keep either of them on the court.

I made the mistake of counting on a big jump from Stewart last year, not making that mistake again based on preseason comments. So put me in as I'll believe it when I see it in games for both of them
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This and some of the posts above it which see them as a potential big help on the defensive end is spot on. We have better shooters than either but they would get time for offense if they simply worked their a___es off on defense. LOL I am sure Dan Hurley has been banging the defense drum night and day as he did earlier this preseason. Dan Hurley putting the writing on the wall for them and he can bring new meaning to the word stubborn if you try to get around that. I hope for their sake and above all the team they try to fit into the coaching master plan which is emphatic about DEFENSE. There will be no alternative to what Dan Hurley wants. Going public with it puts everyone on notice. It's a "read my lips" moment and it could not be more clear.
 
Jaydumo20 said:
Yes. I had written previously that Koroma seems sturdier but erased it after I looked at his metrics. He's about the same size as Stew
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Monday, when I saw Koroma in person for the first time in was somewhat disappointed by his size (he doesn't appear to be any taller or heavier than Karaban). He did however play a rugged, aggressive game. This led to some foul trouble (which should not be an issue once everyone is healthy) but in emergency minutes I can see him being useful at the five.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Monday, when I saw Koroma in person for the first time in was somewhat disappointed by his size (he doesn't appear to be any taller or heavier than Karaban). He did however play a rugged, aggressive game. This led to some foul trouble (which should not be an issue once everyone is healthy) but in emergency minutes I can see him being useful at the five.
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Good news. I had thought, not sure why, that he was a dog. Those are the guys that usually crush us so it's nice to have one on our side. I think we'll see more of him than we may think
 
Huskybass said:
IF it ever really clicks for Stewart, watch out! If Stewart and Ross both contribute meaningfully this season, the team's ceiling is very high. I have to say that despite being skeptical on Ross, he looked MUCH better in the exhibition than in the past.
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They both have everything it takes to be high level players which makes it that much more odd that neither has really broken out as that player Dan Hurley is asking them to be. If it happens this team could be great.
 
auror said:
The bottom is the starters, the top is the starters with Ross in place of McNeeley. Not a huge sample size, but it's similar to the team's overall splits with him ON. Not good. Horrendous even. That rim% and rim FG%, yikes.
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Thanks.

Am I reading it correctly that he was less of a liability on offense than defense. That the offense was almost similar to that when McNeeley was in.
 
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ctchamps said:
Thanks.

Am I reading it correctly that he was less of a liability on offense than defense. That the offense was almost similar to that when McNeeley was in.
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Yes, better even. The sample size is small enough to mostly ignore the result (on both sides of the ball). 80% at the rim is unsustainable.
 
Without reading everything I hope it’s time for one or both to step up a notch and bring a bigger impact off the bench. Stewie had an active game but settled for too many 3s once with a wide open lane to the basket. The one time he took a couple dribbles to the basket he made a nice short bank shot, need more of that. Defense he was burnt immediately left in cement in the first take against him. Needs to be more consistent there he had some good games on that end last year. Ross started again like a deer in the headlights nervous with the ball in his hands. Much better 2nd half for sure but which guy shows up more?

Again, it’s a must for one of them to bring solid minutes off the bench! Will be interesting to see where they both go!
 
I think Karoma getting rotational minutes will be good for this team. On this team he has a unique skillset. A skilled and rugged frontcourt player who makes us tougher immediately when he gets on the court. What does he bring? His strength lies in being an interior player, post, mid-range. He plays with a greater physicality than most other players on the team, he rebounds aggressively, he sets really effective picks (watch them against BC), he is a very skilled interior scorer and passer as well. Defensively a very tough player who will guard 2-5. Karoma is 24 years old, he is a grown man, and was playing in the Munich League in Germany as early as 17 years old. A very experienced veteran player. I think he scored 15 against us when we played Lemoyne last season with a bunch of rebounds. Hurley knows what's up, that's why he's on the team. He is more than just a bench riding third center and should play an important role in the frontcourt.

Here's a scouting blurb from the locals. A couple of minutes.



If you have more time, here is more

 
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Yaxel has a little size on Jaylen but this is the kind of game we need him to model. All around active with a foundation of getting to the rim.

 
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