Why Dan Hurley says UConn’s roster is ‘screaming’ for emergence of Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart

[husky429]

I’m working on a film breakdown that highlights his defensive possessions throughout the season currently.

Sure thing, buddy

 

[alphasigko]

Yes Danny we know. We’ve been hoping for that too.

THIS!

 

[HW611]

Sure thing, buddy

It’s not going to be all games because that’s way too much. But it’ll come with the clips of the possession so people can see the plays for theirselves and not just take my word for it.

 

[alphasigko]

It’s not going to be all games because that’s way too much. But it’ll come with the clips of the possession so people can see the plays for themselves and not just take my word for it.

FIFY

 

[Huskyforlife]

He was clearly nervous as all hell in the first half which caused that airball.

He seemed to settle in more in the second half. It’s all mental for him.

Everything with Ross has to do with confidence. All of these abilities are there.

But how long do you get to use “nervousness” or “confidence” as an excuse?

You wanna use these excuses with freshmen? I can believe that, it’s a new experience and more pressure than they’ve ever felt in their lives. We’re talking about a guy who’s an upperclassman now, should be an example for the younger guys in how to get yourself ready for the moment.

You can’t rely on a guy who folds under pressure, you can’t give him half a game to get it together, the next guy in line might have ice in his veins.

Rooting for him to figure it out, cause I agree with your assessment that a fully realized Ross is the best fit for what we need.

 

[auror]

I think this narrative comes from his analytics score defensively which I’m confused by. I’m working on a film breakdown that highlights his defensive possessions throughout the season currently.

From what I’ve seen so far I don’t know what calculations the analytics did to determine this because it can’t be further from the truth.

Without thinking too much about it it’s hard to believe he’s a worse defender than Solo and Mahaney last year.

Let me break it down for you.
1) Probably not worse than Ball or Mahaney. But all of them (+Stewart) rated horribly on D last year, so he's not unique in that.
2) His block and steal rates were good to fine.
3) The team's on/off defensive splits against decent or better teams were atrocious with him on the court (top 200 opponents).


Close to 14 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court.

Why was that? Well opponents shot the lights out when he was on the court. From every area of the court. You adjust for 3pt shooting (un)luck and you still get 8 points worse per 100 with him on the court.


There is some further (un)luck with the mid-range shooting while he was on the court, but can't adjust that on this site.

So what was bad? The team fouled a ton with him and off, but it was 7% worse with him on the court, and his personal foul rate was high (close to 5 fouls per 40), which is atrocious for a wing. The team gave up shots at the rim 4.4% more often AND opponents shot 57% at the rim compared to 50.7% with him off. Those are all really bad things for a defense. Considering how often he and the team fouled, you'd think they would've forced some turnovers, but no, they forced less with him on the court.

These team-level stats do have confounding variables, obviously. The on and off don't have identical teammate constructions, for one thing. The stat RAPM does adjust for that and he graded as the worst defender on the team in D-RAPM. He played slightly more with Tarris than Samson, with a 57/40 split. On the season, Reed had the better on/off defensive numbers, so Ross played more with the better defensive center and still posted those horrible team splits. The lineup data shows that his minutes with Samson were particularly horrible defensively, especially the Ross/Stewart/Samson lineups.

 

[navery12]

It’s not going to be all games because that’s way too much. But it’ll come with the clips of the possession so people can see the plays for theirselves and not just take my word for it.

I will save you the time. Nobody is going to take your analysis seriously, especially when you're admitting up front that you're selectively choosing what to include

 

[HW611]

Let me break it down for you.
1) Probably not worse than Ball or Mahaney. But all of them (+Stewart) rated horribly on D last year, so he's not unique in that.
2) His block and steal rates were good to fine.
3) The team's on/off defensive splits against decent or better teams were atrocious with him on the court (top 200 opponents).


Close to 14 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court.

Why was that? Well opponents shot the lights out when he was on the court. From every area of the court. You adjust for 3pt shooting (un)luck and you still get 8 points worse per 100 with him on the court.


There is some further (un)luck with the mid-range shooting while he was on the court, but can't adjust that on this site.

So what was bad? The team fouled a ton with him and off, but it was 7% worse with him on the court, and his personal foul rate was high (close to 5 fouls per 40), which is atrocious for a wing. The team gave up shots at the rim 4.4% more often AND opponents shot 57% at the rim compared to 50.7% with him off. Those are all really bad things for a defense. Considering how often he and the team fouled, you'd think they would've forced some turnovers, but no, they forced less with him on the court.

These team-level stats do have confounding variables, obviously. The on and off don't have identical teammate constructions, for one thing. The stat RAPM does adjust for that and he graded as the worst defender on the team in D-RAPM. He played slightly more with Tarris than Samson, with a 57/40 split. On the season, Reed had the better on/off defensive numbers, so Ross played more with the better defensive center and still posted those horrible team splits. The lineup data shows that his minutes with Samson were particularly horrible defensively, especially the Ross/Stewart/Samson lineups.

Idk man. I’m two games in and Ross is not the problem here with these numbers. I’m going to withhold some of my glowing comments before finishing. But I don’t think these numbers are right here.

 

[HW611]

I will save you the time. Nobody is going to take your analysis seriously, especially when you're admitting up front that you're selectively choosing what to include

Don’t worry. The film will be there so you can watch the play yourself instead of look at a number #

 

[Jumpman62114]

If Ross can be as disruptive and play good D versus Michigan state and the next tier up of athletes then I’ll be a lot more optimistic. Really hope he continues to trend up.

 

[auror]

Idk man. I’m two games in and Ross is not the problem here with these numbers. I’m going to withhold some of my glowing comments before finishing. But I don’t think these numbers are right here.

The only positive I'll say in the stats is that his best lineup combination was with Karaban+Reed, both of whom are back this year. The downside is that his worst pairing is with Stewart, who he's likely to play more with.

 

[HW611]

The only positive I'll say in the stats is that his best lineup combination was with Karaban+Reed, both of whom are back this year. The downside is that his worst pairing is with Stewart, who he's likely to play more with.

I can see why. Stewart had a few plays on film where he just gets lost and confused on when to switch. There’s a lot of times Stew just isn’t focused on that end of the floor.

 

[navery12]

Don’t worry. The film will be there so you can watch the play yourself instead of look at a number #

I'm going to watch, I'm just being honest that nobody is going to take you seriously when you've shown nothing but bias about Ross. And are openly admitting you're not including everything in your analysis.

Your comment that you don't understand the analytics so they must be wrong is laugh out loud funny

 

[caw]

I think, by and large, people can see the vision with Stewart and Ross. It just has not fully clicked for them in their first two years. They both improved, but most people wanted more improvement, maybe not at the Solo level, but more. They need to make at least a similar leap this year.

If UConn can get about 11-14 PPG (up from 7.8 last year combined) and solid defense between the two of them this year, it's a win. Or a bit less offensively and shutdown defense.

If it clicks fully for one of them it could be much higher. If it clicks for both, UConn will be fantastic.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They are different players. Stewart has been hampered by Alex sticking around, shifting him mostly to the 3 where he struggles to defend small quick players (as would AK). He's a stretch 4 and his defense is much better against bigger, slower players. He can shoot 3s, but he also has a nice midrange game. He's so much better as an AK backup than he is playing with AK.

Ross has the quickness and length to be a great defensive 3, but in the past he gambled constantly, trying for steals instead of just playing position defense. Maybe he has flipped that switch. But unless his offense improves he seems more like a role player/defensive stopper. We may need that this year because I don't think Mullins is going to hold up on D as well as Liam did last year. Maybe the offensive game comes too, that would be welcome.

 

[RuffRuff]

They are different players. Stewart has been hampered by Alex sticking around, shifting him mostly to the 3 where he struggles to defend small quick players (as would AK). He's a stretch 4 and his defense is much better against bigger, slower players. He can shoot 3s, but he also has a nice midrange game. He's so much better as an AK backup than he is playing with AK.

Ross has the quickness and length to be a great defensive 3, but in the past he gambled constantly, trying for steals instead of just playing position defense. Maybe he has flipped that switch. But unless his offense improves he seems more like a role player/defensive stopper. We may need that this year because I don't think Mullins is going to hold up on D as well as Liam did last year. Maybe the offensive game comes too, that would be welcome.

Spot on, only piece I would argue is Mullins vs McNeeley on D. He is much quicker defensively and should be able to stay in front of his man much better than McNeeley did. The problem would be if he had to guard a larger more physical 3, which we then have options for.

McNeeley was not a plus defender by any stretch. Watching guys like Neal take him off the dribble was hard to watch.

 

[husky429]

Spot on, only piece I would argue is Mullins vs McNeeley on D. He is much quicker defensively and should be able to stay in front of his man much better than McNeeley did. The problem would be if he had to guard a larger more physical 3, which we then have options for.

McNeeley was not a plus defender by any stretch. Watching guys like Neal take him off the dribble was hard to watch.

I think we have options for those physical 3s, though it will probably be our weak spot on defense. Demary and Solo are both STRONG 195s, Ross, even Stewart are bodies we can throw in to slow up a scoring run.

 

[80shusky]

Didn't see anyone mention this but shots fired by Danny here!
Anyway, these are our guys. They're flawed. They all are. If they were perfect we'd have nothing to argue about and they'd already be in the league.
SJ mentioned Stewart playing well in big games and some of the opponents. For me the UNC game comes to mind. Also, it seems like when he plays well it is usually early and then he fades in the 2nd half. Might be a good reason to start him rather than let him molder on the bench early in the game.
It won't matter if Mullins starts or gets 25 min off the bench. He gone.