Why Dan Hurley says UConn’s roster is ‘screaming’ for emergence of Jayden Ross, Jaylin Stewart

[aceboon]

AK also doesn't need to be playing 36 minutes per game.

if he does the other wings are gonna get stagnated in their development for another year

 

[navery12]

I wonder if we'll ever see AK at the 5 again. I doubt it. If we're playing a team like st johns I wonder if Kaluma gets PT when Tarris sits.

I imagine we'll see more of Koroma than Karaban at the 5, but I doubt it's at the expense of Reibe's minutes. I've seen a few people talk about Reibe this way, but I don't really get it. He has 5 inches and 50 pounds on Koroma so definitely wouldn't say Koroma is sturdier

 

[Jaydumo20]

I imagine we'll see more of Koroma than Karaban at the 5, but I doubt it's at the expense of Reibe's minutes. I've seen a few people talk about Reibe this way, but I don't really get it. He has 5 inches and 50 pounds on Koroma so definitely wouldn't say Koroma is sturdier

Yes. I had written previously that Koroma seems sturdier but erased it after I looked at his metrics. He's about the same size as Stew

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I got to see him not to believe it. I really hope he doesn't.

It's interesting to note that each of his last 2 seasons, his 3pt shooting has tapered off as the season progressed. Don't have time to do actual stats analyses, but if you look at the game logs, he had many more bad games in the latter ~1/3 of the season. It was more pronounced as a Soph and Junior., when he was logging many more minutes.

Lots of things factor into "hot" or "cold" shooting, including general form (too complex, can get out of sorts more than a simple repeatable), injuries, offensive sets, defense, etc.

But it sure seems like the slog of high-minutes might catch up to him. Maybe.

I'd love to see Alex get less minutes this season. It may benefit him as well as the team. We sure are deep enough with experience and talent to support it.

 

[RuffRuff]

I imagine we'll see more of Koroma than Karaban at the 5, but I doubt it's at the expense of Reibe's minutes. I've seen a few people talk about Reibe this way, but I don't really get it. He has 5 inches and 50 pounds on Koroma so definitely wouldn't say Koroma is sturdier

I'd actually argue that Koroma is more of a 4 and perhaps even a 4 that brings a more complimentary skillset to the floor as a hustle/rebound guy than Stewart. We don't need a bunch of shooters at the 1-4 on the floor at all times.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I imagine we'll see more of Koroma than Karaban at the 5, but I doubt it's at the expense of Reibe's minutes. I've seen a few people talk about Reibe this way, but I don't really get it. He has 5 inches and 50 pounds on Koroma so definitely wouldn't say Koroma is sturdier

Agree...Reibe played 22min vs. BC. He seemed to be doing well with motor and stamina throughout (though he did look a bit winded at one point when he was on the blocks during FTs at one point.

I think he seems like he will have less conditioning/endurance issues compared to Clingan. If he needs to play 20 due to Tarris having foul issues, it seems like we could get that from him.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I'd actually argue that Koroma is more of a 4 and perhaps even a 4 that brings a more complimentary skillset to the floor as a hustle/rebound guy than Stewart. We don't need a bunch of shooters at the 1-4 on the floor at all times.

If so then if Reed goes out with foul trouble its either Reibe or AK. I thought Koroma was the "5" when we played them, no? I didnt pay much attention to his recruitment but I always thought he was a "replacement" for Youssef

 

[navery12]

I'd actually argue that Koroma is more of a 4 and perhaps even a 4 that brings a more complimentary skillset to the floor as a hustle/rebound guy than Stewart. We don't need a bunch of shooters at the 1-4 on the floor at all times.

Agree that he's more of a natural 4, but his only real path to minutes here is the 5 and it's why he was brought in. Karaban and Stewart will take up all the minutes at the 4. Completely disagree with your last sentence though, if you can't shoot I have less than 0 interest in you being on the floor at the 1-4 spot

 

[Lafayette]

Ross seems to never show “I want the ball!” Granted we see Solo as the shooting guard work screens to get free by design.

Stewart has that “sleepy Floyd” look - no disrespect - he never looks nervous either but with hands has called for the ball.

Ross might be our best defender but he must have some offense to go with that…Castle, Moore, DePriest all had some game to go with defense - even if they were not normally used as the first or second scoring option. You cannot just be a great defender and have nothing to scare opponents on offense.

So bottom line is Ross is way ahead as a defensive gem but way behind offensively. Kinda the anti-Solo role

 

[RuffRuff]

Agree that he's more of a natural 4, but his only real path to minutes here is a 5. Karaban and Stewart will take up all the minutes at the 4. Completely disagree with your last sentence though, if you can't shoot I have less than 0 interest in you being on the floor at the 1-4 spot

Witness Uconn 2024-25 - bunch of shooters. Witness Uconn 22-23 - AJx was a terrible shooter, Castle was not a good shooter. Balanced rosters are more important than a bunch of guys who enjoy hoisting threes.

Teams always need someone to do some dirty work.

 

[superjohn]

I'd actually argue that Koroma is more of a 4 and perhaps even a 4 that brings a more complimentary skillset to the floor as a hustle/rebound guy than Stewart. We don't need a bunch of shooters at the 1-4 on the floor at all times.

Koroma absolutely is more of a 4 than Stewart. Jaylin is obviously a lot more talented but doesn't seem to have a defined role and often just floats out there shooting threes. Koroma is one of the leaders in field goal percentage the past two seasons in college basketball. He doesn't shoot outside of 5 feet and is a solid offensive rebounder.

Karaban simply played too much last season and there's no reason to do that again with the talent we have.

 

[navery12]

Witness Uconn 2024-25 - bunch of shooters. Witness Uconn 22-23 - AJx was a terrible shooter, Castle was not a good shooter. Balanced rosters are more important than a bunch of guys who enjoy hoisting threes.

Teams always need someone to do some dirty work.

You're basically making my point for me. The common thread with all 3 teams you mentioned is that we shifted to an offense with a 4 who could shoot, Alex Karaban. And sure, we had weaker shooters at the 3 like Jackson and Castle, but they were still guys the defense had to respect and would take 3's.

 

[auror]

It's interesting to note that each of his last 2 seasons, his 3pt shooting has tapered off as the season progressed. Don't have time to do actual stats analyses, but if you look at the game logs, he had many more bad games in the latter ~1/3 of the season. It was more pronounced as a Soph and Junior., when he was logging many more minutes.

Lots of things factor into "hot" or "cold" shooting, including general form (too complex, can get out of sorts more than a simple repeatable), injuries, offensive sets, defense, etc.

But it sure seems like the slog of high-minutes might catch up to him. Maybe.

I'd love to see Alex get less minutes this season. It may benefit him as well as the team. We sure are deep enough with experience and talent to support it.

 

[superjohn]

Witness Uconn 2024-25 - bunch of shooters. Witness Uconn 22-23 - AJx was a terrible shooter, Castle was not a good shooter. Balanced rosters are more important than a bunch of guys who enjoy hoisting threes.

Teams always need someone to do some dirty work.

Agreed, we have two of the best three point shooters in the country in Solo and Braylon and AK, Silas, Malachi, and Stewart are all good to very good catch and shoot three point shooters. We need to be tougher, St. John's flat out bullied us last season.

 

[Jaydumo20]

You're basically making my point for me. The common thread with all 3 teams you mentioned is that we shifted to an offense with a 4 who could shoot, Alex Karaban. And sure, we had weaker shooters at the 3 like Jackson and Castle, but they were still guys the defense had to respect and would take 3's.

Also, for a team that never gets to the foul line, castle was very valuable there from the get go. He became a better 3 pt shooter as the season went on i believe.

 

[Peacefrog]

Ross seems to never show “I want the ball!” Granted we see Solo as the shooting guard work screens to get free by design.

Stewart has that “sleepy Floyd” look - no disrespect - he never looks nervous either but with hands has called for the ball.

Ross might be our best defender but he must have some offense to go with that…Castle, Moore, DePriest all had some game to go with defense - even if they were not normally used as the first or second scoring option. You cannot just be a great defender and have nothing to scare opponents on offense.

So bottom line is Ross is way ahead as a defensive gem but way behind

offensively. Kinda the anti-Solo roleLo

Ross seems to never show “I want the ball!” Granted we see Solo as the shooting guard work screens to get free by design.

Stewart has that “sleepy Floyd” look - no disrespect - he never looks nervous either but with hands has called for the ball.

Ross might be our best defender but he must have some offense to go with that…Castle, Moore, DePriest all had some game to go with defense - even if they were not normally used as the first or second scoring option. You cannot just be a great defender and have nothing to scare opponents on offense.

So bottom line is Ross is way ahead as a defensive gem but way behind offensively. Kinda the anti-Solo role

I love what Lyman brought to the team but let's not romanticize it "too" much. He had no offensive game beyond the occasional offesnive rebound and put back. In four years I think I remember him making 1 3-pointer. He was in there for one reason only and it wasn't to try and do anything on offense.

 

[ctchamps]

Let me break it down for you.
1) Probably not worse than Ball or Mahaney. But all of them (+Stewart) rated horribly on D last year, so he's not unique in that.
2) His block and steal rates were good to fine.
3) The team's on/off defensive splits against decent or better teams were atrocious with him on the court (top 200 opponents).


Close to 14 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court.

Why was that? Well opponents shot the lights out when he was on the court. From every area of the court. You adjust for 3pt shooting (un)luck and you still get 8 points worse per 100 with him on the court.


There is some further (un)luck with the mid-range shooting while he was on the court, but can't adjust that on this site.

So what was bad? The team fouled a ton with him and off, but it was 7% worse with him on the court, and his personal foul rate was high (close to 5 fouls per 40), which is atrocious for a wing. The team gave up shots at the rim 4.4% more often AND opponents shot 57% at the rim compared to 50.7% with him off. Those are all really bad things for a defense. Considering how often he and the team fouled, you'd think they would've forced some turnovers, but no, they forced less with him on the court.

These team-level stats do have confounding variables, obviously. The on and off don't have identical teammate constructions, for one thing. The stat RAPM does adjust for that and he graded as the worst defender on the team in D-RAPM. He played slightly more with Tarris than Samson, with a 57/40 split. On the season, Reed had the better on/off defensive numbers, so Ross played more with the better defensive center and still posted those horrible team splits. The lineup data shows that his minutes with Samson were particularly horrible defensively, especially the Ross/Stewart/Samson lineups.

Great analysis but could you give us information as to who were the guards he was on the court with. My recollection is he seldom was in a game with Hassan. Plus when he was in the game he was frequently assigned the opposing teams best player.

Regardless of last season that stretch from around 12:30 to 2:54 in the BC game his entry into the game started with Millender, Stewart, Koroma and Ball. Hurley then put in Reibe and Alex to replace Koroma and Stewart. And finally replaced Millender with Smith. So Ross got some playing time with the starters.

Does the analytics have any evidence that Ross played in a lineup last season with the starters?

 

[TheShot1990]

Witness Uconn 2024-25 - bunch of shooters. Witness Uconn 22-23 - AJx was a terrible shooter, Castle was not a good shooter. Balanced rosters are more important than a bunch of guys who enjoy hoisting threes.

Teams always need someone to do some dirty work.

Correct. God did not give you a 6' 7" 220lb body to hoist up 3s as your first choice shot. In fact, you shouldn't hoist at all unless left wide open if you're shooting below 35%.

Ross treats the ball as a hot potato. You're not gonna find a cutter in under 1 second...be patient with the ball Jayden. Ajax could pass.

 

[Lafayette]

I love what Lyman brought to the team but let's not romanticize it "too" much. He had no offensive game beyond the occasional offesnive rebound and put back. In four years I think I remember him making 1 3-pointer. He was in there for one reason only and it wasn't to try and do anything on offense.

Coming out of Detroit he was definitely more than just a defensive player. I think he was put into a purely defensive role at UConn and he excelled at it. He also was more of a sixth man after freshman year which hurt his stats.

Hard not to romanticize the player back then and thing was he was totally overshadowed in Detroit by Derrick Coleman but so was almost everyone else.

Still I would take Junior Depriest over Junior Ross.

 

[Peacefrog]

Coming out of Detroit he was definitely more than just a defensive player. I think he was put into a purely defensive role at UConn and he excelled at it. He also was more of a sixth man after freshman year which hurt his stats.

Hard not to romanticize the player back then and thing was he was totally overshadowed in Detroit by Derrick Coleman but so was almost everyone else.

Still I would take Junior Depriest over Junior Ros

I wasn't addressing anything to do with Ross. You lumped DePriest in with Caastle as examples of players that were lockdown defenders but also brought good offense along with it. Lyman did not. Not trying to knock DePriest, he was great at what he was in there to do but he didn't belong in the basket of comps you offered (guys with great defense that were also offensive threats).

 

[alphasigko]

Idk man. I’m two games in and Ross is not the problem here with these numbers. I’m going to withhold some of my glowing comments before finishing. But I don’t think these numbers are right here.

He may have contributed some on defense, but his offense was a complete no show.

Hopefully he can improve in both offense and defense this year. If he does, he will see court time; if not, he will reprise his role of last year.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Awesome.

For ha-ha's, I put a prompt into ChatGPT and this is what it came up with using a 4-game moving average output for regular-season games only for 2023-24, and 2024-25. Fricken AI...sheesh.

2023-24:

2024-25:

 

[auror]

Great analysis but could you give us information as to who were the guards he was on the court with. My recollection is he seldom was in a game with Hassan. Plus when he was in the game he was frequently assigned the opposing teams best player.

Regardless of last season that stretch from around 12:30 to 2:54 in the BC game his entry into the game started with Millender, Stewart, Koroma and Ball. Hurley then put in Reibe and Alex to replace Koroma and Stewart. And finally replaced Millender with Smith. So Ross got some playing time with the starters.

Does the analytics have any evidence that Ross played in a lineup last season with the starters?

The bottom is the starters, the top is the starters with Ross in place of McNeeley. Not a huge sample size, but it's similar to the team's overall splits with him ON. Not good. Horrendous even. That rim% and rim FG%, yikes.

 

[dennismenace]

If Stewart can play defense like he did freshman year (or hopefully a little better) or Ross can play defense like the 2nd half of the BC game then there's a clear path to additional minutes for both. Stewart is going to play regardless because of his offense, but the defensive side is what's going to keep either of them on the court.

I made the mistake of counting on a big jump from Stewart last year, not making that mistake again based on preseason comments. So put me in as I'll believe it when I see it in games for both of them

This and some of the posts above it which see them as a potential big help on the defensive end is spot on. We have better shooters than either but they would get time for offense if they simply worked their a___es off on defense. LOL I am sure Dan Hurley has been banging the defense drum night and day as he did earlier this preseason. Dan Hurley putting the writing on the wall for them and he can bring new meaning to the word stubborn if you try to get around that. I hope for their sake and above all the team they try to fit into the coaching master plan which is emphatic about DEFENSE. There will be no alternative to what Dan Hurley wants. Going public with it puts everyone on notice. It's a "read my lips" moment and it could not be more clear.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Yes. I had written previously that Koroma seems sturdier but erased it after I looked at his metrics. He's about the same size as Stew

Monday, when I saw Koroma in person for the first time in was somewhat disappointed by his size (he doesn't appear to be any taller or heavier than Karaban). He did however play a rugged, aggressive game. This led to some foul trouble (which should not be an issue once everyone is healthy) but in emergency minutes I can see him being useful at the five.