What is the end game? | Page 3 | The Boneyard

What is the end game?

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He was hired to run the athletic department which basically means he was hired, as they all are, to raise money for everything and anything.

And he's supposed to try to get us the hell out of here.
 
pj said:
In this case, it's pretty easy to quantify UConn's value. UConn has played many P5 teams, so the ratings from a change in competition can be assessed; so can the changes seen by other teams that have changed conferences. There are cable benchmarks, like SNY's increase in revenue when it added UConn women's basketball. There are other ways of assessing. Yes, there is potential, but it's not like a "unicorn tech company" that is proposing to do something new, UConn FB only needs to meet the kind of local/regional market penetration that the average P5 school achieves. Reverting to the mean is much more believable than doing something that's never been done before.
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Then the numbers right now don't justify Uconn's inclusion and the potential to increase those numbers as viewed as too speculative. SNY's increase in revenue from women's BB does not matter in this whole thing. Hell, men's BB matters probably <5%. Uconn can not be bringing just the average local/regional market penetration. The conferences already have too many of them. They have to bring in more in some way shape or form than what they take out. That is why the next round of expansion seems to be focused on proven ratings winners.

The sad reality as has been touched on in this thread is that all of this chasing of $$$ and creating the super conference of haves and the rest being left behind is going to kill CFB. Two super conferences of 16 will be all that matters for TV. Everyone else is just filler between those 16 games every week.
 
06029 said:
Then the numbers right now don't justify Uconn's inclusion and the potential to increase those numbers as viewed as too speculative. SNY's increase in revenue from women's BB does not matter in this whole thing. Hell, men's BB matters probably <5%. Uconn can not be bringing just the average local/regional market penetration. The conferences already have too many of them. They have to bring in more in some way shape or form than what they take out. That is why the next round of expansion seems to be focused on proven ratings winners.

The sad reality as has been touched on in this thread is that all of this chasing of $$$ and creating the super conference of haves and the rest being left behind is going to kill CFB. Two super conferences of 16 will be all that matters for TV. Everyone else is just filler between those 16 games every week.
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I hate to agree with your second paragraph but sadly I do. America loves them some NFL, so it doesn't strain disbelief too much to imagine a future where TV creates something like it with college football teams. I can imagine a B1G with ND, UT, and a bunch of ACC Schools partnered with the PAC 12, pitted against a combination of The SEC and the remnants of The ACC and Big 12. The former deciding its champion in either the Orange or Rose Bowl with the latter using The Sugar and Fiesta. The two winners eventually squaring off in a championship game that rotates nationwide like The Superbowl.

The remaining teams that do not make the cut form a second tier along with any 1AA Teams that meet certain metrics. They compete in a playoff the same as FCS does now. In reality when the disparity becomes as obscene as one team making 50 million in TV dollars while another makes 1 million they are no longer competing at the same level anyway. I suspect that many of these schools would either scale back or fold their football teams to focus their resources elsewhere.

A lot of schools will be taking note of what Nova recently accomplished, and deciding whether that model makes sense for them. Take Temple for example. They do not have the means to support this future model. They have a small fan base, inadequate facilities, and minimal revenue. Why even bother? They have a hell of a lot better chance being Villanova than Penn State. Play some nice regional rivalries in football while focusing their athletic dollars on improving basketball. A game that based on location and history they are set up much better to compete at.
 
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Ldandy said:
I hate to agree with your second paragraph but sadly I do. America loves them some NFL, so it doesn't strain disbelief too much to imagine a future where TV creates something like it with college football teams. I can imagine a B1G with ND, UT, and a bunch of ACC Schools partnered with the PAC 12, pitted against a combination of The SEC and the remnants of The ACC and Big 12. The former deciding its champion in either the Orange or Rose Bowl with the latter using The Sugar and Fiesta. The two winners eventually squaring off in a championship game that rotates nationwide like The Superbowl.

The remaining teams that do not make the cut form a second tier along with any 1AA Teams that meet certain metrics. They compete in a playoff the same as FCS does now. In reality when the disparity becomes as obscene as one team making 50 million in TV dollars while another makes 1 million they are no longer competing at the same level anyway. I suspect that many of these schools would either scale back or fold their football teams to focus their resources elsewhere.

A lot of schools will be taking note of what Nova recently accomplished, and deciding whether that model makes sense for them. Take Temple for example. They do not have the means to support this future model. They have a small fan base, inadequate facilities, and minimal revenue. Why even bother? They have a hell of a lot better chance being Villanova than Penn State. Play some nice regional rivalries in football while focusing their athletic dollars on improving basketball. A game that based on location and history they are set up much better to compete at.
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Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.
 
I still don't understand the end game. The B1G TV contract is not an earthquake, it is THE earthquake. The northeast, Atlantic coast, and plains states just broke off and fell into the ocean, and there are 24 athletic programs bobbing around probably without a clue what to do next. What happens to the Big 12, ACC and Pac 12? What happens to them will dictate what happens to UConn.

When in doubt, I assume CR rule #1. That said, 24 ACC and Big 12 AD's probably threw up in their mouths when they saw the news about the B1G TV deal. What is their next step? Do nothing and spend the next 9 years begging their way into the B1G? How realistic an option is that for any of them when the B1G can do nothing at all and continue to print phat checks? Going down that road is certain death for 7 of the Big 12. They might decide to do that, but I have to think even Texas and Oklahoma would want to hedge their bet against an uncertain event 9 years into the future like begging their way into the B1G in 2025.

I can't begin to make a guess on what the ACC and Big 12 will do, and I suspect they do not know themselves.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
I still don't understand the end game. The B1G TV contract is not an earthquake, it is THE earthquake. The northeast, Atlantic coast, and plains states just broke off and fell into the ocean, and there are 24 athletic programs bobbing around probably without a clue what to do next. What happens to the Big 12, ACC and Pac 12? What happens to them will dictate what happens to UConn.

When in doubt, I assume CR rule #1. That said, 24 ACC and Big 12 AD's probably threw up in their mouths when they saw the news about the B1G TV deal. What is their next step? Do nothing and spend the next 9 years begging their way into the B1G? How realistic an option is that for any of them when the B1G can do nothing at all and continue to print phat checks? Going down that road is certain death for 7 of the Big 12. They might decide to do that, but I have to think even Texas and Oklahoma would want to hedge their bet against an uncertain event 9 years into the future like begging their way into the B1G in 2025.

I can't begin to make a guess on what the ACC and Big 12 will do, and I suspect they do not know themselves.
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You need to see what happens with the second half of the TV deal.

I'm w FTT - ESPN needs the Big 10 and the Big 10 needs ESPN. We'll see if they pony up on the second half of the deal.

If ESPN doesn't have the Big 10 (which is pretty unlikely) that would probably impact what happens next.
 
msmoose posted on Cincinnati 247 board and went full ACC Apocalypse, which means he has no idea what will happen. It does seem like near-term momentum on Big 12 expansion has slowed.

When you look at what just happened, it could mean the end of the College Football Playoff and the NCAA Tournament within 10 years, because none of the other leagues will be able to compete with the Big 10 and SEC.
 
djct1999 said:
Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.
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Agree to disagree.
 
djct1999 said:
Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.
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Agree to disagree.
 
Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.
 
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whaler11 said:
Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.
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I think it expands, because everyone is in agreement a 13th game is necessary, and that a 13th game with an existing round robin is pointless. Regardless of a better outcome (conference network) I think the Big 12 adds two just for the playoff money/chance. I think there's almost no chance they add more than two considering the possibility of better options becoming available "soon."
 
whaler11 said:
Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.
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The B1G deal expires right around the time schools in the ACC & B12 will need to give their notice of departure. The timing for the B1G will be perfect to pick the schools they want to add. I still think the end game for them is 16 with UVA & UNC being the adds. If that happens the ACC likely gets gutted with the SEC & B12 taking whomever they want.

That's why I agree that the B12 isn't expanding now. They'll add the CCG game which will generate $20-30MM in extra cash for them & then wait it out. If the B1G & SEC grab schools from the ACC the B12 may actually be able to get Florida St & Clemson.
 
bobbyinaz said:
The B1G deal expires right around the time schools in the ACC & B12 will need to give their notice of departure. The timing for the B1G will be perfect to pick the schools they want to add. I still think the end game for them is 16 with UVA & UNC being the adds. If that happens the ACC likely gets gutted with the SEC & B12 taking whomever they want.

That's why I agree that the B12 isn't expanding now. They'll add the CCG game which will generate $20-30MM in extra cash for them & then wait it out. If the B1G & SEC grab schools from the ACC the B12 may actually be able to get Florida St & Clemson.
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I agree I have always thought UNC is the school they want and would provide the best ROI for them.
 
BUHusky10 said:
A day doesn't pass that remembering the headline "Louisville has accepted offer to join ACC" doesn't haunt me.
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This totally misses the point of what's going on in this parallel universe whereby B1G is renegotiating into a $40m (doubling per school) new contract.

When the SEC and the B1G are hugely more revenue per school - due to these network pushes and greater longterm contracts, the ACC and the B12 (in particular) is far less stable. In fact, there is a real chance that major components (Universities) jump for the extra cash.\

Why would the B1G expand? It is not just the cutting of shares that we watch. Everytime they have the shot at new markets and new buzz, their contract has opened up and they are far better off. That's not been true for the ones the ACC took. Yes ... I can see a National network and divisions and a wide wide series of TV/Streaming entertainment revenue sources. The B1G expands because they keep raising greater revenue and markets. Like all cartels, this one fails because eventually someone has the leverage to upset the balance.
 
whaler11 said:
Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.
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Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?
 
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NYUConn said:
Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?
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Because any expansion & B12N will require an extension of the GOR which OK & possibly KU will not want to sign
 
NYUConn said:
Definitely not pointless for the Big 12 to expand if they can go east and convert the LHN to a Big 12N. Even if it's only for 5 years, why would you want to make $20M per year when you could be making $25-30M?
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The Big 12 network is going to throw off 5-10 million per team - so 5-10x more than the PAC 12 network and as much as the BTN?

Not a chance.
 
whaler11 said:
The Big 12 network is going to throw off 5-10 million per team - so 5-10x more than the PAC 12 network and as much as the BTN?

Not a chance.
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Additional $10 million a year per school is probably way too high, but $5 million isn't inconceivable considering the value of a network and subsequent revenue earned surrounding a league title game.
 
The Big12 should take a page out of the BIG's playbook.

Assuming the Big12 can negotiate with UT to convert the LHN to the Big12 network (big assumption) they expand now with the best possible candidates (UConn/Cincy.) In the next 6 years they build up the B12 network. By the time the GORs expire in the ACC in 2024 the Big12 has a profitable functioning network to attract ACC teams.

IMO the BIG took Rutgers/Maryland in order to increase their financial payout and eventually attract the ACC/Big12 programs the BIG truly covets. However, the BIG cannot take all the valuable ACC teams and, if the Big12 build a network, there is no reason they could not attract teams like FSU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, etc in 2024...In this regard the Big12 needs to view UConn/Cincy in the same manner the BIG viewed Maryland/Rutgers....it is the jab that sets up the power punch.

The ACC is likely not getting a network. The Big12 may still have a chance. Sure, the Big12 may lose OU/KU in 2024 but if they brought in some power programs out of the ACC the Big12 could still flourish. However, the only chance the Big12 has to recruit ACC teams is to show them the money which requires a network. A Big12 network requires expansion.

The wildcard is UT. How do you financially incentivize them to convert the LHN or to not run to the BIG/PAC?
 
NYUConn said:
Additional $10 million a year per school is probably way too high, but $5 million isn't inconceivable considering the value of a network and subsequent revenue earned surrounding a league title game.
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It's 5x more than the PAC 12 and only 3 million less than the BTN estimates.... and has nowhere near the demand.
 
djct1999 said:
Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.
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I am with you. I could careless when other schools are playing. I only watch when UCONN is playing someone. I could careless if Ohio St is playing Michigan. If UCONN is in the B1G, then I would pay attention to other B1G games since they could affect UCONN's standing in the conference. I used to watch other BE teams when UCONN played in the BE. Now, I simply don't care about those schools at all.

Right now, UCONN opponents in the AAC suck. I certainly don't look forward to games against Tulane like I used to vs. games against RU. The longer UCONN is stuck in the AAC, the more I can see more fans feeling like I do now. Sadly, that's the new reality for UCONN.
 
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I don't see this as the doomsday scenario. Let's say Oklahoma goes to the Big 10 without being AAU. Where does that put UCONN?

It makes sense for the Big 12 to stay together and maximize profits because if OU goes- there goes some of the negotiation power.

Also, if I don't care about the Big 10, I won't watch it. Delaney et al need to expand to keep things fresh or the dollars go backwards.

Nothing has changed - if the Big 12 does not expand with us soon, then the train stops again in 2024. Just because the Big 10 hit the jackpot today just means good for them - nothing else.

And if we are stuck in the ACC- we will have a much better contract in a few years. Aresco took exposure over dollars to set up the next contract.

And by the way, on the 6 year contracts - that seems to be the magic number for networks and leagues- NBC wrapped up the English Premier League for 6 years. It's a number that everyone seems comfortable with where there is enough time to grow viewership, etc.
 
I don't think the B1G is taking anyone that isn't AAU. I think Delany wants to build an elite academic and athletic conference.
 
B1GOSU said:
Cincinnati couldn't get a Big 12 Network on basic cable in Ohio. No one in Ohio gives two ts about UC outside of those affiliated with UC.
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Not so different from bcu, except no one anywhere gives two ts about bcu outside of the few affiliated with bcu.
 
Why is the Big 10 (and SEC) worth so much more than every other league? Are their apples to apples ratings to support that gap?
 
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