What is the end game?

[nelsonmuntz]

ESPN and Fox have basically said that the Big 10 and SEC are the only two conferences that are worth paying for, they have not made up their mind about the Pac 12, and everyone else is more or less worthless and the networks can't wait to get those other leagues off their books.

Why would the Big 10 or SEC expand? They have already won with the teams they have. How can anyone compete with the SEC and Big 10 in football, and why would they bother?

The media market is valuing Illinois vs. Indiana at 50x UConn vs. Cincinnati. Is that really the relative value of those two games to television? If it is, then how does anyone outside the P2 compete?

I never thought expansion would end up with 28 teams winning, and everyone else losing, but it appears that is what happened.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Part of the Big Ten's end game could be to grab a chunk of NYC, Connecticut and Boston (along with perhaps a piece of Virginia, NC, and Atlanta.. Or OK and Texas).

Know anyone that could help with that? Rumor has it that B1G has a TV contract negotiation sometime soon.

 

[The Funster]

Here's the end game: no one will notice that college athletics have been ruined until long after the Delanys, Slives and Swoffords have retired. No good can come from the wanton pursuit of the almighty dollar.

 

[BlueHen]

The end game is that the B1G and SEC will wait until the ACC and Big 12 die and then pick up the best schools from each conference. The way I see it, the ACC and Big 12 are now way behind the B1G and SEC and there is nothing they can do to catch up. Only a matter of time before schools like FSU, Texas, Oklahoma etc. move onto greener pastures.

A merger of the best ACC and Big 12 schools might produce a valuable conference, but I think the B1G and SEC would raid the most valuable pieces before that conference could be created.

UConn has to hope that it gets a B1G invite or that it ends up in the 4th best conference once the dust settles. Unfortunately, the 4th best conference will be way behind the B1G, SEC and probably the Pac-12.

 

[FDNY99]

Part of the Big Ten's end game could be to grab a chunk of NYC, Connecticut and Boston (along with perhaps a piece of Virginia, NC, and Atlanta.. Or OK and Texas).

Know anyone that could help with that? Rumor has it that B1G has a TV contract negotiation sometime soon.

Sorry to say but like @Dooley has posted here before it was hard enough to try and get the the $3o mill/yr number never mind $50 mill/yr. The B1G pie in the sky dream is pretty much over for UConn. The best hope is for the leftovers to join together into a regional conference that is in good media markets and go from there.

 

[FDNY99]

ESPN and Fox have basically said that the Big 10 and SEC are the only two conferences that are worth paying for, they have not made up their mind about the Pac 12, and everyone else is more or less worthless and the networks can't wait to get those other leagues off their books.

Why would the Big 10 or SEC expand? They have already won with the teams they have. How can anyone compete with the SEC and Big 10 in football, and why would they bother?

The media market is valuing Illinois vs. Indiana at 50x UConn vs. Cincinnati. Is that really the relative value of those two games to television? If it is, then how does anyone outside the P2 compete?

I never thought expansion would end up with 28 teams winning, and everyone else losing, but it appears that is what happened.

Nelson I never in a million years thought I would ever agree with anything that you posted on here. But this post is spot on!

 

[Seaa Blue]

Sorry to say but like @Dooley has posted here before it was hard enough to try and get the the $3o mill/yr number never mind $50 mill/yr. The B1G pie in the sky dream is pretty much over for UConn. The best hope is for the leftovers to join together into a regional conference that is in good media markets and go from there.

Why the gloom? Until Delany says that the Big Ten is set, how do you know that UConn isn't part of B1G's next TV package?

 

[CTMike]

Why the gloom? Until Delany says that the Big Ten is set, how do you know that UConn isn't part of B1G's next TV package?

The same reason that despite my powerball ticket I have a pretty good sense that I'm not gonna win.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Sorry to say but like @Dooley has posted here before it was hard enough to try and get the the $3o mill/yr number never mind $50 mill/yr. The B1G pie in the sky dream is pretty much over for UConn. The best hope is for the leftovers to join together into a regional conference that is in good media markets and go from there.

they can call it the new new big east

 

[FDNY99]

Why the gloom? Until Delany says that the Big Ten is set, how do you know that UConn isn't part of B1G's next TV package?

Why...he has always been on record as stating that a school has to bring a equal share of $$ to the table. At $30 Mill/yr it was a HUGE stretch. At $50+ mill/yr...forget it. or I guess I can always start a new day dream and hope that Slive calls up Herbst and Benedict offering a spot in the SEC since they are really trying to up their game in basketball. On second thought...nah maybe I will just finally look at reality and accept that a groomed together conference of basically the former Big East football playing schools and some others from the B12 aren't really a bad group to be with.

 

[TruthNnumbers]

I know this doesn't help but as an B1G and IU fan I hope we add UConn and ND or UConn and UVA and call it a day. The problem is that the B1G needs to add areas that are growing and the South is the answer. So I'm afraid 18-20 could really be the goal. In that scenario UConn gets hurt a bit by the fact that your population is growing more like a rustbelt state than the B1G may like.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

 

[B1GOSU]

The end game is whatever Jim Delany wants it to be. As someone stated on another board..............

Big Jim may be a granite-hearted negotiator with ice water in his veins, but at least he's ours.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Why...he has always been on record as stating that a school has to bring a equal share of $$ to the table. At $30 Mill/yr it was a HUGE stretch. At $50+ mill/yr...forget it.

Who, Delany? I still don't see a road block for UConn here. No AAU is a bigger deal, and that goes away philosophically if ND is still in play.

This is a time when ANY school can be brought into the fold without reducing the year-to-year payout. Boston U, NJIT, Rice, Buffalo... There's hope.

 

[FDNY99]

Who, Delany? I still don't see a road block for UConn here. No AAU is a bigger deal, and that goes away philosophically if ND is still in play.

Yeah...it should theoretically go away with FSU too. I'm glad you feel this way about UConn. I'll believe it only if it happens...and if that ever does happen..I'm gonna make sure I'm not dead and in heaven or sleeping and dreaming.

 

[huskymedic]

I'm gonna make sure I'm not dead and in heaven

Heaven???

 

[FDNY99]

Heaven???
View attachment 13324

LMFAO..yeah because if I go where I'm probably supposed to go..UConn to the B1G wouldn't be happening...

 

[whaler11]

Who, Delany? I still don't see a road block for UConn here. No AAU is a bigger deal, and that goes away philosophically if ND is still in play.

This is a time when ANY school can be brought into the fold without reducing the year-to-year payout. Boston U, NJIT, Rice, Buffalo... There's hope.

LOL - you don't see a roadblock that Fox would need to spend an additional $38 million a year to add two teams and keep the other schools whole for just half of their tier 1 inventory? You know just about a quarter of a billion over 6 years.

The roadblock I have been pointing out all along during this Big Ten fever dream turned out to be the Great Wall of Revenue.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Fox doesn't get it's way all the time. Doesn't get advertising for alcohol, has to televise field hockey, etc.

If Delany wants part of Boston, you're in. Among other things, New England is an attractive area for current Big Ten academia (and presidents) and perspective students.

 

[jlarson]

The end game is an eventual merger of the TV contracts for the Pac 12 and B1G. The TV contract will cover schools coast-to-coast and an NFL style format will be created.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Fox doesn't get it's way all the time. Doesn't get advertising for alcohol, has to televise field hockey, etc.

If Delany wants part of Boston, you're in. Among other things, New England is an attractive area for current Big Ten academia (and presidents) and perspective students.

I hope you are right and I've always seen the logic in the B10 locking up the NYC/New England region by adding UConn but I just feel that there are going to be too many juicy morsels from the ACC and maybe B12 for us to have a real shot.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

I think the doom & gloom is a bit overstated at this point. The other P5 conferences will still be getting $20 - $25 million per year. That is a ton of money. The networks still need content (especially ESPN). So the BIG and the SEC drive Rolls Royces, the ACC and PAC will still drive Mercedes. Sadly, the AAC will still need a bus pass.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

LOL - you don't see a roadblock that Fox would need to spend an additional $38 million a year to add two teams and keep the other schools whole for just half of their tier 1 inventory? You know just about a quarter of a billion over 6 years.

The roadblock I have been pointing out all along during this Big Ten fever dream turned out to be the Great Wall of Revenue.

On one hand I completely agree, how can UConn ever justify $50 million of incremental revenue. On the other hand, I don't understand how the existing teams justify the revenue they are getting. What is the tv pricing structure of college athletics when Rutgers and Indiana are worth $50 million a year each, and the AAC schools are worth $2 million a year each. Is that relationship supported by ratings or any other metric?

Also, people need to stop posting expansion scenarios for the Big 10 and SEC. Why on earth would either league expand?

 

[HoopsFan21]

Also, people need to stop posting expansion scenarios for the Big 10 and SEC. Why on earth would either league expand?

This. The whole point of expansion is to sweeten the pot. No school except for the name brand anchor schools of other P5 conferences will do that if the amount of money being thrown around here is real. The B1G isn't going to cut the pie into even smaller slices just to pick up a mid-major like UConn. Now if Delaney could kick out teams like Indiana you bet he'd do it in a second, but the grandfathered in schools of the B1G and SEC basically hit the lottery.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This. The whole point of expansion is to sweeten the pot. No school except for the name brand anchor schools of other P5 conferences will do that if the amount of money being thrown around here is real. The B1G isn't going to cut the pie into even smaller slices just to pick up a mid-major like UConn. Now if Delaney could kick out teams like Indiana you bet he'd do it in a second, but the grandfathered in schools of the B1G and SEC basically hit the lottery.

Why would the SEC or Big 10 add Texas? Does either league need the money? Is either league in danger of folding? How much revenue would Texas add to either league to move the needle on $50MM a year that each school is already receiving? Both leagues have teams (Nebraska and Missouri) that left the Big 12 because of Texas, and now Texas is their b#tch from a financial perspective. Why would those leagues agree to add a school that is a complete nightmare as a conference partner when they don't need the money?

The ACC and Big 12 have gotten the message that no one wants to work with them to give them a network as constituted, which is a clear indication that both league's TV partners think those leagues are overpaid. While i do not see why a FSU/Clemson game is worth less than a Michigan State/Ohio State game, TV clearly does.

 

[djct1999]

On one hand I completely agree, how can UConn ever justify $50 million of incremental revenue. On the other hand, I don't understand how the existing teams justify the revenue they are getting. What is the tv pricing structure of college athletics when Rutgers and Indiana are worth $50 million a year each, and the AAC schools are worth $2 million a year each. Is that relationship supported by ratings or any other metric?

Also, people need to stop posting expansion scenarios for the Big 10 and SEC. Why on earth would either league expand?

Why would the B1g expand? Let me take a stab at this. First, Delaney has been remarkably proactive and visionary from Day 1. To expand further, quickly will help get him to his ultimate goal. The longer he allows other leagues, networks linger the less control over selection and process he may have. Right now he is in the drivers seat. I think it's comical for anyone to believe in order for the B1g to expand a team needs to bring in additional revenue of over 5o million. He has already proven that teams don't matter. Marketplace does. So why expand? To lock up the eastern seaboard. Why add UConn? Because with other teams, such as Unc and Gtech, uconn can help lock in Nyc to Boston. One team alone may not add as much value but the addition of Atlanta, Charlotte, Boston and further penetration in nyc sure as hell does. 50 million or not, I have a hard time believing Texas or nd joining the Big. Ego will always interfere and they will never play second fiddle to anyone. The only logical place for Texas is the Pac 12 where they still will reign supreme.