What is the end game?

[noeynox]

Where is UConn's path to the P5?

Right now, absent the Big 12 expanding, it simply does not exist.

The 'we add too much value' line has been used, but conferences have already added terrific amounts of value to themselves and here we are.

If the idea is that someone is going to have to backfill the ACC in ten years and that's our path, fine - but that is gonna hurt.

It is tough to keep reading the positive spin on our situation. I will always remember the day Louisville got added over us. A piece of all of us died that day knowing what was at stake.

There were tons of UCONN is gonna be fine posts that day. Here we are almost 4 years later singing the same tune.

The only thing we got going for us is good coaches in many sports. How long do we hang on to them?

 

[Fishy]

So many things had to go exactly wrong for UConn to end up where it did - and without fail, they happened.

And they continue to happen...for a billion years, you needed twelve teams and two divisions to have a conference title game. And now, you don't.

You can split up into two divisions of five now, but you can't split up into three divisions of five, which effectively helps squash realistic Big 12 expansion theories and even far-fetched ACC expansion theories. Just remarkable.

Eventually, when enough doors have shut, there just aren't any left to open - and that is just about where we are.

 

[Hoophound]

We'll be fine.

 

[pj]

Where is UConn's path to the P5?

Right now, absent the Big 12 expanding, it simply does not exist.

The 'we add too much value' line has been used, but conferences have already added terrific amounts of value to themselves and here we are.

If the idea is that someone is going to have to backfill the ACC in ten years and that's our path, fine - but that is gonna hurt.

Everyone in every conference and every media firm is studying how to maximize revenue. We are the only public university playing high-level sports in a northeast region of 35 mn people (New England plus New York), and have a following thoughout the highly populated region in those states. There is money to be made here and someone will figure out how to capture it. When they do, UConn will get half. That's the way business works.

 

[06029]

Everyone in every conference and every media firm is studying how to maximize revenue. We are the only public university playing high-level sports in a northeast region of 35 mn people (New England plus New York), and have a following thoughout the highly populated region in those states. There is money to be made here and someone will figure out how to capture it. When they do, UConn will get half. That's the way business works.

Evidently the following is not big enough because if it was, this board would be about the best tailgating recipes for 2016. Uconn FB is still a potential number in terms of ratings in the areas you describe. The media consultants all have the numbers that matter. Does Uconn show enough potential and/or growth and positive revenue characteristics to figure into someone's plan? Or is Uconn like a unicorn tech company with an incredibly high internal valuation, a nice business idea/product but no cash flow? Right now, I think the view is the latter.

 

[pj]

Evidently the following is not big enough because if it was, this board would be about the best tailgating recipes for 2016. Uconn FB is still a potential number in terms of ratings in the areas you describe. The media consultants all have the numbers that matter. Does Uconn show enough potential and/or growth and positive revenue characteristics to figure into someone's plan? Or is Uconn like a unicorn tech company with an incredibly high internal valuation, a nice business idea/product but no cash flow? Right now, I think the view is the latter.

In this case, it's pretty easy to quantify UConn's value. UConn has played many P5 teams, so the ratings from a change in competition can be assessed; so can the changes seen by other teams that have changed conferences. There are cable benchmarks, like SNY's increase in revenue when it added UConn women's basketball. There are other ways of assessing. Yes, there is potential, but it's not like a "unicorn tech company" that is proposing to do something new, UConn FB only needs to meet the kind of local/regional market penetration that the average P5 school achieves. Reverting to the mean is much more believable than doing something that's never been done before.

 

[NYUConn]

I'm as optimistic as they come, but have to agree with Fishy here. If the Big 12 does not expand, there is no other path forward for us absent the ACC losing 1-2 teams (which is incredibly unlikely).

The best thing we can hope for IMO is for the University to keep improving academically and lurching towards AAU status and for the football program to go on a tear of 9-12 win seasons over the next decade.

Absent that, I think we are where we are for the foreseeable future.

 

[Fishy]

And yet here we are.

The two buyers that we theoretically would have some appeal to are already in the market - the Big Ten sells their network in NYC and 1/3rd of the state of Connecticut already, so we're really just the equivalent of 900,000 more cable boxes to them. (Another example how perfectly wrong things had to go for us....1/3rd of our own state is miraculously credited to a school who resides TWO STATES OVER.) The ACC which has no network already has a presence in the northeast with Syracuse and Boston College.

So....?

 

[NYUConn]

When Benedict was hired as AD a lot of folks saw it as a pro-football move aimed at making us competitive in a future P5 conference.

The reality may be that he was hired as a pro-fundraising move to help figure out a way to close the revenue gap absent a television deal.

 

[CTMike]

When Benedict was hired as AD a lot of folks saw it as a pro-football move aimed at making us competitive in a future P5 conference.

The reality may be that he was hired as a pro-fundraising move to help figure out a way to close the revenue gap absent a television deal.

I don't want to like this but... Yeah.

 

[Fishy]

He was hired to run the athletic department which basically means he was hired, as they all are, to raise money for everything and anything.

And he's supposed to try to get us the hell out of here.

 

[06029]

In this case, it's pretty easy to quantify UConn's value. UConn has played many P5 teams, so the ratings from a change in competition can be assessed; so can the changes seen by other teams that have changed conferences. There are cable benchmarks, like SNY's increase in revenue when it added UConn women's basketball. There are other ways of assessing. Yes, there is potential, but it's not like a "unicorn tech company" that is proposing to do something new, UConn FB only needs to meet the kind of local/regional market penetration that the average P5 school achieves. Reverting to the mean is much more believable than doing something that's never been done before.

Then the numbers right now don't justify Uconn's inclusion and the potential to increase those numbers as viewed as too speculative. SNY's increase in revenue from women's BB does not matter in this whole thing. Hell, men's BB matters probably <5%. Uconn can not be bringing just the average local/regional market penetration. The conferences already have too many of them. They have to bring in more in some way shape or form than what they take out. That is why the next round of expansion seems to be focused on proven ratings winners.

The sad reality as has been touched on in this thread is that all of this chasing of $$$ and creating the super conference of haves and the rest being left behind is going to kill CFB. Two super conferences of 16 will be all that matters for TV. Everyone else is just filler between those 16 games every week.

 

[Ldandy]

Then the numbers right now don't justify Uconn's inclusion and the potential to increase those numbers as viewed as too speculative. SNY's increase in revenue from women's BB does not matter in this whole thing. Hell, men's BB matters probably <5%. Uconn can not be bringing just the average local/regional market penetration. The conferences already have too many of them. They have to bring in more in some way shape or form than what they take out. That is why the next round of expansion seems to be focused on proven ratings winners.

The sad reality as has been touched on in this thread is that all of this chasing of $$$ and creating the super conference of haves and the rest being left behind is going to kill CFB. Two super conferences of 16 will be all that matters for TV. Everyone else is just filler between those 16 games every week.

I hate to agree with your second paragraph but sadly I do. America loves them some NFL, so it doesn't strain disbelief too much to imagine a future where TV creates something like it with college football teams. I can imagine a B1G with ND, UT, and a bunch of ACC Schools partnered with the PAC 12, pitted against a combination of The SEC and the remnants of The ACC and Big 12. The former deciding its champion in either the Orange or Rose Bowl with the latter using The Sugar and Fiesta. The two winners eventually squaring off in a championship game that rotates nationwide like The Superbowl.

The remaining teams that do not make the cut form a second tier along with any 1AA Teams that meet certain metrics. They compete in a playoff the same as FCS does now. In reality when the disparity becomes as obscene as one team making 50 million in TV dollars while another makes 1 million they are no longer competing at the same level anyway. I suspect that many of these schools would either scale back or fold their football teams to focus their resources elsewhere.

A lot of schools will be taking note of what Nova recently accomplished, and deciding whether that model makes sense for them. Take Temple for example. They do not have the means to support this future model. They have a small fan base, inadequate facilities, and minimal revenue. Why even bother? They have a hell of a lot better chance being Villanova than Penn State. Play some nice regional rivalries in football while focusing their athletic dollars on improving basketball. A game that based on location and history they are set up much better to compete at.

 

[BUConn10]

A day doesn't pass that remembering the headline "Louisville has accepted offer to join ACC" doesn't haunt me.

 

[djct1999]

I hate to agree with your second paragraph but sadly I do. America loves them some NFL, so it doesn't strain disbelief too much to imagine a future where TV creates something like it with college football teams. I can imagine a B1G with ND, UT, and a bunch of ACC Schools partnered with the PAC 12, pitted against a combination of The SEC and the remnants of The ACC and Big 12. The former deciding its champion in either the Orange or Rose Bowl with the latter using The Sugar and Fiesta. The two winners eventually squaring off in a championship game that rotates nationwide like The Superbowl.

The remaining teams that do not make the cut form a second tier along with any 1AA Teams that meet certain metrics. They compete in a playoff the same as FCS does now. In reality when the disparity becomes as obscene as one team making 50 million in TV dollars while another makes 1 million they are no longer competing at the same level anyway. I suspect that many of these schools would either scale back or fold their football teams to focus their resources elsewhere.

A lot of schools will be taking note of what Nova recently accomplished, and deciding whether that model makes sense for them. Take Temple for example. They do not have the means to support this future model. They have a small fan base, inadequate facilities, and minimal revenue. Why even bother? They have a hell of a lot better chance being Villanova than Penn State. Play some nice regional rivalries in football while focusing their athletic dollars on improving basketball. A game that based on location and history they are set up much better to compete at.

Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I still don't understand the end game. The B1G TV contract is not an earthquake, it is THE earthquake. The northeast, Atlantic coast, and plains states just broke off and fell into the ocean, and there are 24 athletic programs bobbing around probably without a clue what to do next. What happens to the Big 12, ACC and Pac 12? What happens to them will dictate what happens to UConn.

When in doubt, I assume CR rule #1. That said, 24 ACC and Big 12 AD's probably threw up in their mouths when they saw the news about the B1G TV deal. What is their next step? Do nothing and spend the next 9 years begging their way into the B1G? How realistic an option is that for any of them when the B1G can do nothing at all and continue to print phat checks? Going down that road is certain death for 7 of the Big 12. They might decide to do that, but I have to think even Texas and Oklahoma would want to hedge their bet against an uncertain event 9 years into the future like begging their way into the B1G in 2025.

I can't begin to make a guess on what the ACC and Big 12 will do, and I suspect they do not know themselves.

 

[whaler11]

I still don't understand the end game. The B1G TV contract is not an earthquake, it is THE earthquake. The northeast, Atlantic coast, and plains states just broke off and fell into the ocean, and there are 24 athletic programs bobbing around probably without a clue what to do next. What happens to the Big 12, ACC and Pac 12? What happens to them will dictate what happens to UConn.

When in doubt, I assume CR rule #1. That said, 24 ACC and Big 12 AD's probably threw up in their mouths when they saw the news about the B1G TV deal. What is their next step? Do nothing and spend the next 9 years begging their way into the B1G? How realistic an option is that for any of them when the B1G can do nothing at all and continue to print phat checks? Going down that road is certain death for 7 of the Big 12. They might decide to do that, but I have to think even Texas and Oklahoma would want to hedge their bet against an uncertain event 9 years into the future like begging their way into the B1G in 2025.

I can't begin to make a guess on what the ACC and Big 12 will do, and I suspect they do not know themselves.

You need to see what happens with the second half of the TV deal.

I'm w FTT - ESPN needs the Big 10 and the Big 10 needs ESPN. We'll see if they pony up on the second half of the deal.

If ESPN doesn't have the Big 10 (which is pretty unlikely) that would probably impact what happens next.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

msmoose posted on Cincinnati 247 board and went full ACC Apocalypse, which means he has no idea what will happen. It does seem like near-term momentum on Big 12 expansion has slowed.

When you look at what just happened, it could mean the end of the College Football Playoff and the NCAA Tournament within 10 years, because none of the other leagues will be able to compete with the Big 10 and SEC.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Butler does fine against the big boys. Basketball will be fine.

 

[Ldandy]

Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.

Agree to disagree.

 

[Ldandy]

Except college football is not the nfl. 10 years from now a mls game will score a higher rating nationally. I consider myself a huge sports fan. Outside of UConn, I barely watch college games. I won't tune in to Fox to watch Ohio state vs Michigan. I won't tune in for Indiana vs Michigan state. I simply don't care. 95% of America will agree.

Agree to disagree.

 

[whaler11]

Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.

 

[Slasher]

Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.

I think it expands, because everyone is in agreement a 13th game is necessary, and that a 13th game with an existing round robin is pointless. Regardless of a better outcome (conference network) I think the Big 12 adds two just for the playoff money/chance. I think there's almost no chance they add more than two considering the possibility of better options becoming available "soon."

 

[bobbyinaz]

Flug seems to have it right. The Big Ten takes their money and sees where the industry is in 6-7 years and when the time comes they can pick the schools they want.

Maybe the Big 12 expands - but I doubt it - it's pointless.

The B1G deal expires right around the time schools in the ACC & B12 will need to give their notice of departure. The timing for the B1G will be perfect to pick the schools they want to add. I still think the end game for them is 16 with UVA & UNC being the adds. If that happens the ACC likely gets gutted with the SEC & B12 taking whomever they want.

That's why I agree that the B12 isn't expanding now. They'll add the CCG game which will generate $20-30MM in extra cash for them & then wait it out. If the B1G & SEC grab schools from the ACC the B12 may actually be able to get Florida St & Clemson.

 

[whaler11]

The B1G deal expires right around the time schools in the ACC & B12 will need to give their notice of departure. The timing for the B1G will be perfect to pick the schools they want to add. I still think the end game for them is 16 with UVA & UNC being the adds. If that happens the ACC likely gets gutted with the SEC & B12 taking whomever they want.

That's why I agree that the B12 isn't expanding now. They'll add the CCG game which will generate $20-30MM in extra cash for them & then wait it out. If the B1G & SEC grab schools from the ACC the B12 may actually be able to get Florida St & Clemson.

I agree I have always thought UNC is the school they want and would provide the best ROI for them.