what does Vegas say about the game tonight

[reno tony]

By reading some of the posts it appears that some of you may not know how a Sports Book works. Their goal is not to become a bettor, but to take bets. A simple bet on game 1 is either team A or team B. You bet $11 and if your team covers the spread you win $10 plus you get your $11 bet back for a total of $21. So, if team A gets an $11 bet and team B gets an $11 bet the book is automatically guaranteed to make $1. They take in both $11 bets for a total of $22 and pay the winner $21. They want the same money bet on both sides so they don't care who wins because they will get their approximately 5% earnings from the total money bet.

To take an extreme situation, team A has $11,000 bet on it and team B has $55,000 bet on it. If team A wins then the Book is happy because they just won $45,000. But if team B wins they just lost $39,000. So rather than being a Sports Book they have become a bettor on the game by taking more money bet on one team than the other. So the line moves are not because all of a sudden they had a change of mind about who is going to win, it is to entice bettors to put more money on a particular team to even out the ratio of money they have taken on the two teams.

 

[Ozone21]

I put $40 on UCONN to win it all in October

 

[whaler11]

I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.

Yeah I know what you are saying. He was saying it was a good sign for a UConn fan, not someone who hadn't placed a UConn bet yet.

I'm surprised that someone who has been betting for 20 years believes books are trying to get equal money on each side of a game. Books have exposure all the time - they got killed on Sunday night when the favorites rolled. If they kept moving the UCLA and Virginia numbers up they would have gotten destroyed by late sharp money and middles.

I don't buy too much into the numbers that get published on those sites, so I rarely even look at them, but if you had access to something accurate that could be valuable.

 

[whaler11]

You may not know how a Sports Book works. Their goal is not to become a bettor, but to take bets. A simple bet on game

If this is in response to me... I will thank you for a hearty laugh as I head off to bed.

 

[Jerry1714]

I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.

My guess is you are not a winning sports bettor over those 20 years, no offense, but these are easy concepts that you are missing.

Also, your view on how the books works is not accurate. At all.

I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side.

 

[reno tony]

If this is in response to me... I will thank you for a hearty laugh as I head off to bed.

I would have laughed too but it posted before it was completed. You can read the completed work when you wake up.

 

[reno tony]

My guess is you are not a winning sports bettor over those 20 years, no offense, but these are easy concepts that you are missing.

Also, your view on how the books works is not accurate. At all.

I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side.

There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.

 

[whaler11]

I would have laughed too but it posted before it was completed. You can read the completed work when you wake up.

Your math works in a vaccum and if it were possible they would probably do that most of the time. But it's very difficult to do in reality and moving the lines as much as the money dictated would leave them open to getting killed on middles.

 

[whaler11]

There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.

Dude the lines move on air. If the lines were moving on money looking for equal sides there would be numbers all over the board.

Instead Vegas waits to see what numbers get hung offshore - then they copy them. Then almost everyone moves together even though they all can't be taking the same bets.

 

[reno tony]

Dude the lines move on air. If the lines were moving on money looking for equal sides there would be numbers all over the board.

Instead Vegas waits to see what numbers get hung offshore - then they copy them. Then almost everyone moves together even though they all can't be taking the same bets.

Move on air? You have obviously never been to a book on a busy football Saturday with 100 games on the board with two or three agents writing tickets and one constantly changing the board. The lines are constantly changing, chasing the 50/50 split they so desire.

And in Vegas, very few casinos have their own book. The rent out space to one of a few major Books that write sports bets in Vegas so you might go into twenty casinos and the lines will be the same because it is the same Book. There are a few independents but mostly the Casinos make money renting the major Books space.

 

[reno tony]

Your math works in a vaccum and if it were possible they would probably do that most of the time. But it's very difficult to do in reality and moving the lines as much as the money dictated would leave them open to getting killed on middles.

The math actually works in reality and they do it all the time. Middles are something that happen rarely and that is just one of those pitfalls in the gambling business. And by the way, middles work both ways. As I have stated, the Books do not want to become a bettor, they are agents that take bets for others and want no interest in either side. Everyone has their own theories why the lines move, when they move, how often, what causes them to move, etc. But it is very simply the adjustments made by the Book to get the same money on both sides of an event.

 

[whaler11]

The math actually works in reality and they do it all the time. Middles are something that happen rarely and that is just one of those pitfalls in the gambling business. And by the way, middles work both ways. As I have stated, the Books do not want to become a bettor, they are agents that take bets for others and want no interest in either side. Everyone has their own theories why the lines move, when they move, how often, what causes them to move, etc. But it is very simply the adjustments made by the Book to get the same money on both sides of an event.

Ok we can leave it at that.

You think that is how it works - that's fine. Hopefully we don't end up with more people reguritating nonsense like this because we've been down this road like 5 times in the past. For some reason this is a myth that some people just can't get past.

 

[reno tony]

Ok we can leave it at that.

You think that is how it works - that's fine. Hopefully we don't end up with more people reguritating nonsense like this because we've been down this road like 5 times in the past. For some reason this is a myth that some people just can't get past.

Have a blessed day.

 

[Jerry1714]

There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.

That is the exact opposite of my view and what I was saying.

I can tell your an old timer who knows nothing about line movements and reverse line movements and how to read them, and refuses to use the information that is now provided.

Honestly, I have never seen someone struggle with understanding simple concepts as much as you.

 

[reno tony]

That is the opposite of my view and what I was saying.

Honestly, I have never seen someone struggle with reading or understanding simple concepts as much as you on this site.

The following quote is from your post:
"I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side."

Since I am so dense, please explain how that quote tells me you are NOT following the crowd by betting the way the line is moving. You were "looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UCONN cause of it" pretty much states you followed the way other bettors were betting.

The fact you made this quote:
"When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions" it is obvious you never make sports bets. And if you really think that when John Q Public's betting moves the betting line it means that the team is more likely to win, you really need a lesson on sports betting. And that is fine, but please make sense with your own quotes before you disparage others.

 

[Jerry1714]

The following quote is from your post:
"I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side."

Since I am so dense, please explain how that quote tells me you are NOT following the crowd by betting the way the line is moving. You were "looking at how thelines moved I unloaded more on UCONN cause of it" pretty much states you followed the way other bettors were betting.

The fact you made this quote:
"When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions" it is obvious you never make sports bets. And if you really think that when John Q Public's betting moves the betting line it means that the team is more likely to win, you really need a lesson on sports betting. And that is fine, but please make sense with your own quotes before you disparage others.

Honestly now I am wondering if you know how to read or even know what sports betting is.

Look up reverse line movement, please, just do it.

Last night the public was pounding IOWA STATE and normally that means it would go from -2 ISU to -2.5 or -3. BUT it went to PICK. THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM THE PUBLIC. Do you understand this now.

Betting with the public would be idiotic and that would mean you bet IOWA STATE. But when the line moves opposite the public, the sharps (clearly the opposite of you) are on UConn. Hence a good sign if you are a UConn fan. Jeez it is so simple.

 

[reno tony]

Honestly now I am wondering if you know how to read or even know what sports betting is.

Look up reverse line movement, please, just do it.

Last night the public was pounding IOWA STATE and normally that means it would go from -2 ISU to -2.5 or -3. BUT it went to PICK. THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM THE PUBLIC. Do you understand this now.

Betting with the public would be idiotic and that would mean you bet IOWA STATE. But when the line moves opposite the public, the sharps (clearly the opposite of you) are on UConn. Hence a good sign if you are a UConn fan. Jeez it is so simple.

I guess I will just ask you a few more questions and then I will stop since we just see things differently.

Why do you think the line for UCONN went from +2 to +1 to pick?

Do you think the public was betting UCONN and the book moved the line to get the public to bet ISU?

I will give you my opinion. The first question was the Public was betting UCONN and the books wanted money on ISU to even out the money. The second question answer is YES. Best of luck with your bets.

 

[Jerry1714]

I guess I will just ask you a few more questions and then I will stop since we just see things differently.

Why do you think the line for UCONN went from +2 to +1 to pick?

Do you think the public was betting UCONN and the book moved the line to get the public to bet ISU?

I will give you my opinion. The first question was the Public was betting UCONN and the books wanted money on ISU to even out the money. The second question answer is YES. Best of luck with your bets.

The answer is NO the public was not betting UConn. Do you ever look at sites that list percentages? My guess is no, you do not, because it was clear the public was pounding ISU, Every site had ISU bet % in the high 60s

Todd Fuhrman ‏@ToddFuhrman 19h
Early Update: Books getting overloaded with Michigan and Iowa St money from the public. Professionals taking opposite positions.

There is no debate, the public was on ISU and the sharps were on UConn.

 

[jleves]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

 

[Waquoit]

For what it's worth the best sports gambler I have access to is on UConn and Tennessee tonight.

That's why I leave sports betting to the profesionals, I couldn't see Tenn at all.

 

[reno tony]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

amen

 

[whaler11]

That's why I leave sports betting to the profesionals, I couldn't see Tenn at all.

Turned out a push for me.

Did have a late easy under on UVa.

For the next two days what they jumped on early are the Florida and UConn unders, Michigan when it pops over 2 and I had someone really good recommend Dayton +10.5 to me. Not sure if I have the stomach for that.

If you were blind betting dogs the second weekend the last decade youd be way way up though.

 

[whaler11]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

They aren't even saying anything similar, nevermind essentially the same thing. But I will follow your direct order to shut up sir.

 

[whaler11]

Turned out a push for me.

Did have a late easy under on UVa.

For the next two days what they jumped on early are the Florida and UConn unders, Michigan when it pops over 2 and I had someone really good recommend Dayton +10.5 to me. Not sure if I have the stomach for that.

If you were blind betting dogs the second weekend the last decade youd be way way up though.

Seriously filling this thread up with winners. .

 

[methodology]

Please I beg of everyone who thinks this - forget it, stop saying it and stop perpetuating this myth.

You are wrong. Their goal is the get 50/50 of the money bet on both sides. Not 50% of the number bets made on each side. There could be 100 wagers on 1 side and 30 on the other but if the money is 50/50 the books and Vegas are happy.

I doubt you know more than Sheldon Adelson on this issue