what does Vegas say about the game tonight | Page 2 | The Boneyard

what does Vegas say about the game tonight

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vegas has ISU at -1, but kenprom say UConn wins by a point. So the game is clearly a toss up.
 
Echo Hawk said:
Good points Metho. Forgot those tight rims and that would affect the O/U.. We'll know right off
if the shots are bouncing all over the place. Would mean longer rebounds on 3 point shots. In pro arenas this year we scored 72 and 59 at MSG, 75 at Houston 75, and 83, 72, 71, and 58 at Memphis. We only broke 80 once.

Your pro theory may be right and we may in for a defensive slugfest.
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We didn't play in a pro arena in Houston. Hofheinz Pavilion is on the UH campus. It was, however, the original home of the Houston Rockets when they moved from San Diego, until the Summit was built in the early 1970's.
 
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Jerry1714 said:
More and more public money is coming in on ISU, but line is down to -1, from -2.

Good sign
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Explain the logic of more money coming in on ISU but the line moves in ISU favor?
 
methodology said:
Vegas line has little to do with who will win or which team is better. The line is made to solicit 50/50 action
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First time for me on the Mens BB and you have made the most sense in both of your posts.
 
huskypantz said:
Tilted Kilt cofounded by CT natives. Mojo countered?
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Wow. I feel much happier dropping money there now. And I always felt good about helping teenagers pay for their college education.
 
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To whoever made the 200k bet go buy some hookers and coke and hookers for your hookers you earned it.... or invest it idk whatever floats your boat you sir are a true believer.
 
Jerry1714 said:
it moved in uconns favor

sharps were on us
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I guess there is a difference in point of view. When the line moves to give UCONN +2 to a line that gives UCONN +1 that is not in the favor of a UCONN bettor. The line move is to entice you to bet on Iowa State. I guess I look at things from the point of view of the bettor. Thanks for your response.
 
reno tony said:
I guess there is a difference in point of view. When the line moves to give UCONN +2 to a line that gives UCONN +1 that is not in the favor of a UCONN bettor. The line move is to entice you to bet on Iowa State. I guess I look at things from the point of view of the bettor. Thanks for your response.
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You look at the point of view of a UConn fan, the line moved towards UConn, period. It went with them as less of a dog, that means in their favor. If you looked at as a gambler you would definitely seeing it as moving in their favor

But yes it was too entice you to bet on ISU
 
Jerry1714 said:
You look at the point of view of a UConn fan, the line moved towards UConn, period. It went with them as less of a dog, that means in their favor. If you looked at as a gambler you would definitely seeing it as moving in their favor

But yes it was too entice you to bet on ISU
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Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.
 
reno tony said:
Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.
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When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions.

So if you root for UConn or bet UConn its a good sign, the sharps and percentages were in your favor. Just like the St. Joes game.
 
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reno tony said:
Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.
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It's fairly simple.

Most of the sites that publish bet percentage showed heavy action on Iowa State. Those sites show numbers of bets, not dollars wagered.

So the theory goes: If there are a lot of bets on one side and the line moves the other way - that means the more respected money and large quantities are coming down opposite the high quantity of bets.

Tonight I saw somewhere that 66% of the bets were on ISU and the line still moved from 2 to 1 to pk. The theory behind that would be that large dollars from stronger betters and professionals were on the UConn side - which people assume is more predictive of what may happen and in this case it turned out well.
 
whaler11 said:
It's fairly simple.

Most of the sites that publish bet percentage showed heavy action on Iowa State. Those sites show numbers of bets, not dollars wagered.

So the theory goes: If there are a lot of bets on one side and the line moves the other way - that means the more respected money and large quantities are coming down opposite the high quantity of bets.

Tonight I saw somewhere that 66% of the bets were on ISU and the line still moved from 2 to 1 to pk. The theory behind that would be that large dollars from stronger betters and professionals were on the UConn side - which people assume is more predictive of what may happen and in this case it turned out well.
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I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.
 
By reading some of the posts it appears that some of you may not know how a Sports Book works. Their goal is not to become a bettor, but to take bets. A simple bet on game 1 is either team A or team B. You bet $11 and if your team covers the spread you win $10 plus you get your $11 bet back for a total of $21. So, if team A gets an $11 bet and team B gets an $11 bet the book is automatically guaranteed to make $1. They take in both $11 bets for a total of $22 and pay the winner $21. They want the same money bet on both sides so they don't care who wins because they will get their approximately 5% earnings from the total money bet.

To take an extreme situation, team A has $11,000 bet on it and team B has $55,000 bet on it. If team A wins then the Book is happy because they just won $45,000. But if team B wins they just lost $39,000. So rather than being a Sports Book they have become a bettor on the game by taking more money bet on one team than the other. So the line moves are not because all of a sudden they had a change of mind about who is going to win, it is to entice bettors to put more money on a particular team to even out the ratio of money they have taken on the two teams.
 
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reno tony said:
I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.
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Yeah I know what you are saying. He was saying it was a good sign for a UConn fan, not someone who hadn't placed a UConn bet yet.

I'm surprised that someone who has been betting for 20 years believes books are trying to get equal money on each side of a game. Books have exposure all the time - they got killed on Sunday night when the favorites rolled. If they kept moving the UCLA and Virginia numbers up they would have gotten destroyed by late sharp money and middles.

I don't buy too much into the numbers that get published on those sites, so I rarely even look at them, but if you had access to something accurate that could be valuable.
 
reno tony said:
You may not know how a Sports Book works. Their goal is not to become a bettor, but to take bets. A simple bet on game
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If this is in response to me... I will thank you for a hearty laugh as I head off to bed.
 
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reno tony said:
I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.
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My guess is you are not a winning sports bettor over those 20 years, no offense, but these are easy concepts that you are missing.

Also, your view on how the books works is not accurate. At all.

I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side.
 
whaler11 said:
If this is in response to me... I will thank you for a hearty laugh as I head off to bed.
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I would have laughed too but it posted before it was completed. You can read the completed work when you wake up.
 
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Jerry1714 said:
My guess is you are not a winning sports bettor over those 20 years, no offense, but these are easy concepts that you are missing.

Also, your view on how the books works is not accurate. At all.

I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side.
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There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.
 
reno tony said:
I would have laughed too but it posted before it was completed. You can read the completed work when you wake up.
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Your math works in a vaccum and if it were possible they would probably do that most of the time. But it's very difficult to do in reality and moving the lines as much as the money dictated would leave them open to getting killed on middles.
 
reno tony said:
There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.
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Dude the lines move on air. If the lines were moving on money looking for equal sides there would be numbers all over the board.

Instead Vegas waits to see what numbers get hung offshore - then they copy them. Then almost everyone moves together even though they all can't be taking the same bets.
 
whaler11 said:
Dude the lines move on air. If the lines were moving on money looking for equal sides there would be numbers all over the board.

Instead Vegas waits to see what numbers get hung offshore - then they copy them. Then almost everyone moves together even though they all can't be taking the same bets.
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Move on air? You have obviously never been to a book on a busy football Saturday with 100 games on the board with two or three agents writing tickets and one constantly changing the board. The lines are constantly changing, chasing the 50/50 split they so desire.

And in Vegas, very few casinos have their own book. The rent out space to one of a few major Books that write sports bets in Vegas so you might go into twenty casinos and the lines will be the same because it is the same Book. There are a few independents but mostly the Casinos make money renting the major Books space.
 
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