what does Vegas say about the game tonight

[UConnDad]

Pack of hungry dogs I hope!

 

[Drumguy]

I just got +2 on sportsbook.com. Took it!

 

[HuskyHawk]

Good points Metho. Forgot those tight rims and that would affect the O/U.. We'll know right off if the shots are bouncing all over the place. Would mean longer rebounds on 3 point shots. In pro arenas this year we scored 72 and 59 at MSG, 75 at Houston 75, and 83, 72, 71, and 58 at Memphis. We only broke 80 once. Your pro theory may be right and we may in for a defensive slugfest.

I don't worry about the rims, but the sight lines and depth of the seating area at MSG can be a problem for some shooters. Ray Allen used to talk about it.

 

[UCDaveD]

UConn +1 at BetUS

 

[methodology]

More and more public money is coming in on ISU, but line is down to -1, from -2.

Good sign

Correct. Seems 65% of public on Iowa st yet line dropped a little. Usually means the sharps are on UConn and that's the right play

 

[Jaker]

vegas has ISU at -1, but kenprom say UConn wins by a point. So the game is clearly a toss up.

 

[methodology]

Vegas line has little to do with who will win or which team is better. The line is made to solicit 50/50 action

 

[UConnNick]

Good points Metho. Forgot those tight rims and that would affect the O/U.. We'll know right off
if the shots are bouncing all over the place. Would mean longer rebounds on 3 point shots. In pro arenas this year we scored 72 and 59 at MSG, 75 at Houston 75, and 83, 72, 71, and 58 at Memphis. We only broke 80 once.

Your pro theory may be right and we may in for a defensive slugfest.

We didn't play in a pro arena in Houston. Hofheinz Pavilion is on the UH campus. It was, however, the original home of the Houston Rockets when they moved from San Diego, until the Summit was built in the early 1970's.

 

[sledog]

2 NY Post writers going with UC by 1 1/2. doomed.

 

[huskypantz]

Another irony in the mix, Hooters was cofounded by an ISU alum.

Tilted Kilt cofounded by CT natives. Mojo countered?

 

[SauceMonkey]

Tilted Kilt cofounded by CT natives. Mojo countered?

I knew I liked UConn for a reason, good luck tonight.

 

[Rondogg]

DOOOOOOOOMED!

 

[Jerry1714]

Line is now pick..................

 

[reno tony]

More and more public money is coming in on ISU, but line is down to -1, from -2.

Good sign

Explain the logic of more money coming in on ISU but the line moves in ISU favor?

 

[reno tony]

Vegas line has little to do with who will win or which team is better. The line is made to solicit 50/50 action

First time for me on the Mens BB and you have made the most sense in both of your posts.

 

[Jerry1714]

Explain the logic of more money coming in on ISU but the line moves in ISU favor?

it moved in uconns favor

sharps were on us

 

[Chin Diesel]

Tilted Kilt cofounded by CT natives. Mojo countered?

Wow. I feel much happier dropping money there now. And I always felt good about helping teenagers pay for their college education.

 

[partial]

To whoever made the 200k bet go buy some hookers and coke and hookers for your hookers you earned it.... or invest it idk whatever floats your boat you sir are a true believer.

 

[reno tony]

it moved in uconns favor

sharps were on us

I guess there is a difference in point of view. When the line moves to give UCONN +2 to a line that gives UCONN +1 that is not in the favor of a UCONN bettor. The line move is to entice you to bet on Iowa State. I guess I look at things from the point of view of the bettor. Thanks for your response.

 

[Jerry1714]

I guess there is a difference in point of view. When the line moves to give UCONN +2 to a line that gives UCONN +1 that is not in the favor of a UCONN bettor. The line move is to entice you to bet on Iowa State. I guess I look at things from the point of view of the bettor. Thanks for your response.

You look at the point of view of a UConn fan, the line moved towards UConn, period. It went with them as less of a dog, that means in their favor. If you looked at as a gambler you would definitely seeing it as moving in their favor

But yes it was too entice you to bet on ISU

 

[reno tony]

You look at the point of view of a UConn fan, the line moved towards UConn, period. It went with them as less of a dog, that means in their favor. If you looked at as a gambler you would definitely seeing it as moving in their favor

But yes it was too entice you to bet on ISU

Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.

 

[Jerry1714]

Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.

When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions.

So if you root for UConn or bet UConn its a good sign, the sharps and percentages were in your favor. Just like the St. Joes game.

 

[whaler11]

Vegas line has little to do with who will win or which team is better. The line is made to solicit 50/50 action

Please I beg of everyone who thinks this - forget it, stop saying it and stop perpetuating this myth.

 

[whaler11]

Like I said, point of view. But I am curious to how you think the line move helps a UCONN fan.

It's fairly simple.

Most of the sites that publish bet percentage showed heavy action on Iowa State. Those sites show numbers of bets, not dollars wagered.

So the theory goes: If there are a lot of bets on one side and the line moves the other way - that means the more respected money and large quantities are coming down opposite the high quantity of bets.

Tonight I saw somewhere that 66% of the bets were on ISU and the line still moved from 2 to 1 to pk. The theory behind that would be that large dollars from stronger betters and professionals were on the UConn side - which people assume is more predictive of what may happen and in this case it turned out well.

 

[reno tony]

It's fairly simple.

Most of the sites that publish bet percentage showed heavy action on Iowa State. Those sites show numbers of bets, not dollars wagered.

So the theory goes: If there are a lot of bets on one side and the line moves the other way - that means the more respected money and large quantities are coming down opposite the high quantity of bets.

Tonight I saw somewhere that 66% of the bets were on ISU and the line still moved from 2 to 1 to pk. The theory behind that would be that large dollars from stronger betters and professionals were on the UConn side - which people assume is more predictive of what may happen and in this case it turned out well.

I agree with what you are saying, but there are a lot of different theories on why and when the lines move and way too numerous to go into here.

As a sports bettor for over 20 years I look at the line changes as someone who is ready to make a bet. If I am going to bet a dog(like UCONN), then the line change from +2 to +1 to pick is in no way favorable to me. That was my point.

And as methodology stated, the line is not completely indicative of how the Book thinks the game will turn out. It is the point spread at which the book believes they will get the same amount of money bet on each side. Hence, they become a Book and not a bettor.