what does Vegas say about the game tonight

[reno tony]

Your math works in a vaccum and if it were possible they would probably do that most of the time. But it's very difficult to do in reality and moving the lines as much as the money dictated would leave them open to getting killed on middles.

The math actually works in reality and they do it all the time. Middles are something that happen rarely and that is just one of those pitfalls in the gambling business. And by the way, middles work both ways. As I have stated, the Books do not want to become a bettor, they are agents that take bets for others and want no interest in either side. Everyone has their own theories why the lines move, when they move, how often, what causes them to move, etc. But it is very simply the adjustments made by the Book to get the same money on both sides of an event.

 

[whaler11]

The math actually works in reality and they do it all the time. Middles are something that happen rarely and that is just one of those pitfalls in the gambling business. And by the way, middles work both ways. As I have stated, the Books do not want to become a bettor, they are agents that take bets for others and want no interest in either side. Everyone has their own theories why the lines move, when they move, how often, what causes them to move, etc. But it is very simply the adjustments made by the Book to get the same money on both sides of an event.

Ok we can leave it at that.

You think that is how it works - that's fine. Hopefully we don't end up with more people reguritating nonsense like this because we've been down this road like 5 times in the past. For some reason this is a myth that some people just can't get past.

 

[reno tony]

Ok we can leave it at that.

You think that is how it works - that's fine. Hopefully we don't end up with more people reguritating nonsense like this because we've been down this road like 5 times in the past. For some reason this is a myth that some people just can't get past.

Have a blessed day.

 

[Jerry1714]

There is nothing mysterious about how a Book works. How a book works is extremely simple. Why the lines move is extremely simple. Setting the line is simple in most cases but not always. They have one goal in mind and that is to get two people that want to bet the same amount of money on different sides of an event so they can take their 5%. Very simply put, they are agents for your betting pleasure.

Your view is to bet the way everybody else is betting. Go with the crowd. Follow the line and make your bet that way. Ignore the facts surrounding the game and just bet the way the line is moving. The Books love bettors like you. Because they have a different bunch of bettors who have the exact opposite attitude that you do and will bet the other way.The more the merrier. Do you think these books are in business to lose money and they move the lines because of new found information. It isn't that complicated and don't think that it is.

Bet your $11 fake or real money and have fun with it.

That is the exact opposite of my view and what I was saying.

I can tell your an old timer who knows nothing about line movements and reverse line movements and how to read them, and refuses to use the information that is now provided.

Honestly, I have never seen someone struggle with understanding simple concepts as much as you.

 

[reno tony]

That is the opposite of my view and what I was saying.

Honestly, I have never seen someone struggle with reading or understanding simple concepts as much as you on this site.

The following quote is from your post:
"I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side."

Since I am so dense, please explain how that quote tells me you are NOT following the crowd by betting the way the line is moving. You were "looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UCONN cause of it" pretty much states you followed the way other bettors were betting.

The fact you made this quote:
"When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions" it is obvious you never make sports bets. And if you really think that when John Q Public's betting moves the betting line it means that the team is more likely to win, you really need a lesson on sports betting. And that is fine, but please make sense with your own quotes before you disparage others.

 

[Jerry1714]

The following quote is from your post:
"I mean no crap I would rather have UConn +2 then +1, but looking at how the lines moved I unloaded more on UConn cause of it, even at a worse number, cause the signs pointed to UConn being the right side."

Since I am so dense, please explain how that quote tells me you are NOT following the crowd by betting the way the line is moving. You were "looking at how thelines moved I unloaded more on UCONN cause of it" pretty much states you followed the way other bettors were betting.

The fact you made this quote:
"When the public is pounding one team and the lines moves the opposite direction, it is a good sign for the team in UConns positions" it is obvious you never make sports bets. And if you really think that when John Q Public's betting moves the betting line it means that the team is more likely to win, you really need a lesson on sports betting. And that is fine, but please make sense with your own quotes before you disparage others.

Honestly now I am wondering if you know how to read or even know what sports betting is.

Look up reverse line movement, please, just do it.

Last night the public was pounding IOWA STATE and normally that means it would go from -2 ISU to -2.5 or -3. BUT it went to PICK. THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM THE PUBLIC. Do you understand this now.

Betting with the public would be idiotic and that would mean you bet IOWA STATE. But when the line moves opposite the public, the sharps (clearly the opposite of you) are on UConn. Hence a good sign if you are a UConn fan. Jeez it is so simple.

 

[reno tony]

Honestly now I am wondering if you know how to read or even know what sports betting is.

Look up reverse line movement, please, just do it.

Last night the public was pounding IOWA STATE and normally that means it would go from -2 ISU to -2.5 or -3. BUT it went to PICK. THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM THE PUBLIC. Do you understand this now.

Betting with the public would be idiotic and that would mean you bet IOWA STATE. But when the line moves opposite the public, the sharps (clearly the opposite of you) are on UConn. Hence a good sign if you are a UConn fan. Jeez it is so simple.

I guess I will just ask you a few more questions and then I will stop since we just see things differently.

Why do you think the line for UCONN went from +2 to +1 to pick?

Do you think the public was betting UCONN and the book moved the line to get the public to bet ISU?

I will give you my opinion. The first question was the Public was betting UCONN and the books wanted money on ISU to even out the money. The second question answer is YES. Best of luck with your bets.

 

[Jerry1714]

I guess I will just ask you a few more questions and then I will stop since we just see things differently.

Why do you think the line for UCONN went from +2 to +1 to pick?

Do you think the public was betting UCONN and the book moved the line to get the public to bet ISU?

I will give you my opinion. The first question was the Public was betting UCONN and the books wanted money on ISU to even out the money. The second question answer is YES. Best of luck with your bets.

The answer is NO the public was not betting UConn. Do you ever look at sites that list percentages? My guess is no, you do not, because it was clear the public was pounding ISU, Every site had ISU bet % in the high 60s

Todd Fuhrman ‏@ToddFuhrman 19h
Early Update: Books getting overloaded with Michigan and Iowa St money from the public. Professionals taking opposite positions.

There is no debate, the public was on ISU and the sharps were on UConn.

 

[jleves]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

 

[Waquoit]

For what it's worth the best sports gambler I have access to is on UConn and Tennessee tonight.

That's why I leave sports betting to the profesionals, I couldn't see Tenn at all.

 

[reno tony]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

amen

 

[whaler11]

That's why I leave sports betting to the profesionals, I couldn't see Tenn at all.

Turned out a push for me.

Did have a late easy under on UVa.

For the next two days what they jumped on early are the Florida and UConn unders, Michigan when it pops over 2 and I had someone really good recommend Dayton +10.5 to me. Not sure if I have the stomach for that.

If you were blind betting dogs the second weekend the last decade youd be way way up though.

 

[whaler11]

Y'all are essentially saying the same thing, it's just that one of you is not getting the implication.

The public (small betters) were betting on ISU. The large smart 'professional' betters were betting on UConn. 1) it probably did end up being close to 50/50 for how the money worked out - lots of little bets vs a few large bets and 2) the implication is that the smart money was on UConn even as the line moved toward pick.

Now shut up and let's think about Sunday.

They aren't even saying anything similar, nevermind essentially the same thing. But I will follow your direct order to shut up sir.

 

[whaler11]

Turned out a push for me.

Did have a late easy under on UVa.

For the next two days what they jumped on early are the Florida and UConn unders, Michigan when it pops over 2 and I had someone really good recommend Dayton +10.5 to me. Not sure if I have the stomach for that.

If you were blind betting dogs the second weekend the last decade youd be way way up though.

Seriously filling this thread up with winners. .

 

[methodology]

Please I beg of everyone who thinks this - forget it, stop saying it and stop perpetuating this myth.

You are wrong. Their goal is the get 50/50 of the money bet on both sides. Not 50% of the number bets made on each side. There could be 100 wagers on 1 side and 30 on the other but if the money is 50/50 the books and Vegas are happy.

I doubt you know more than Sheldon Adelson on this issue

 

[whaler11]

You are wrong. Their goal is the get 50/50 of the money bet on both sides. Not 50% of the number bets made on each side. There could be 100 wagers on 1 side and 30 on the other but if the money is 50/50 the books and Vegas are happy.

I doubt you know more than Sheldon Adelson on this issue

Brother you are totally and completely lost.

Who ever said they are trying to get 50% of the bets on both sides. We were merely commenting that some people look at that data and try to tease information out of it.

You can look at the screen and see in real time that that the idea of getting 50% of the money on each side is a myth. The lines move on air.

It they were taking 50% on each side there wouldn't be wild swings month to month in their results.

If their goal is 50% on each side they need new linemakers since in the biggest handle of the year 70% of the money this year was on Denver and the Under and they broke a record on how much they made for the game.

They could have gotten closer to 50/50 on the Super Bowl by moving to 3, yet nobody did... I wonder why?

 

[reno tony]

You are wrong. Their goal is the get 50/50 of the money bet on both sides. Not 50% of the number bets made on each side. There could be 100 wagers on 1 side and 30 on the other but if the money is 50/50 the books and Vegas are happy.

I doubt you know more than Sheldon Adelson on this issue

save your breath, I had this conversation with him yesterday. my favorite quote was "the lines they move on air" ...... whatever that means.

 

[Marat]

1)

3) A very large bet on UConn hit one of the houses yesterday - $250k.

Here is some more info on that large bet (by UConn fan)
http://mashable.com/2014/03/29/uconn-fan-march-madness-bet/