What Does NBC Have to lose?

[06029]

No amount of money would keep UConn and Rutgers in the NBE if the ACC or B1G came calling. They simply would rather associate with the other schools.

Which is why NBC has everything to lose if they overbid. The networks (except ABC thanks to ESPN) are so far behind the curve on sports. They lack outlets that get ratings, they lack on line content, they lack announcers, they lack history, etc. NBC's sports priorities seem to be Olympics, ND, Sunday night FB and golf. CBS's is NFL, NCAA BB, SEC and golf. Fox is NFL and MLB. Only ESPN has CFB and BB as the #1 priority and has committed the resources to fill programming slots and the internet with content.

Keep wishing and hoping for a billion dollars. Maybe I am wrong but I can't see it coming from NBC or Fox. And you already know what ESPN offered and it was to keep the BE together at that point.

 

[CL82]

mavblues said:

The Debbie Downers in this thread fail to realize that NBC/Comcast is DESPERATE for sports content. To suggest it would lowball is ridiculous. They'll make a very attractive offer, and they'll be able to justify it because they need the content more than ESPN does.​

New BE has tons of content. Football is coast to coast, and other sports will cover many large media markets. And BTW, UCF is something like the 2nd largest school in the US...​

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked (pleasantly) by the size of the new TV deal​

+1

NBC will bid because they need content to build their version of the worldwide leader. ESPN will bid because they do not want NBC to get a foot in the door. Would NBC rather be buying up the 1st tier rights to the B1G or the SEC, sure, but that's not available. There is a reason why ESPN has been working so hard to kill us. We will be the beneficiaries of ABC and NBC going head to head in the same way that we've been a victim of it over the last few months.

Natural rivalries are down the toilet and basketball RPI is going to take a beating but the football product will be better and we'll finally get a taste of big time tv money.

(Put me down for a National Flag Blue unicorn Fishy!)

 

[BlueMAB]

That all remains to be seen. We've never been a top football conference and thinking that a 16 team basketball conference widely considered as the best as currently composed will become mediocre by losing 3 high quality members sells the remaining 13 schools pretty short. It's a setback to be sure but we'll still be in the top 3.

Basketball has so little to do with the value of the league it's got to be the reason you overvalue the conference. Each school will play 30+/- games. That's plenty of content no matter the conference. What little affect the value of basketball has on the contract was greatly affected by the loss of WVU, Pitt, and Cuse. Those were 3 of the top 10 in the conference. With Cuse easily among the top 3. Sure, Houston, UCF, SMU could get better and compete, but the conference is not going to be paid as if those schools had the history, prestige, and fanbases of the 3 we're losing.

We've got the weakest BCS football conference, by a wide margin, in terms of fanbases and prestige. The conference is losing 3 of the best basketball schools in places where basketball can actually compete with football for fans media coverage and picking up 3 schools where it really doesn't.

Aside from basketball, the big east is the farm conference for everyone who matters or stepping stone for those who want to matter.

Our football coaches use the programs as career boosters, other conferences take (who they believe are) our best teams, and we can only convince programs to join if they aren't already BCS programs. On top of that, we still couldn't couldn't convince a couple of our first choices to join despite the BCS tag.

And our best hope for a good contract (thanks to Pitt/Cuse), is a network that's only interested in us because they have nothing else to offer.

I sincerely hope we get a mega contract that adds stability to the conference. I don't see it coming.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No amount of money would keep UConn and Rutgers in the NBE if the ACC or B1G came calling. They simply would rather associate with the other schools.

That is just ignorant. We can associate with the B1G or ACC in lots of different ways. The primary driver for the athletic program by far is how much cash flow it generates. Exposure is secondary. Everything else is borderline irrelevant.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't think people should get their hopes up for a billion dollar contract. That's all. UConn needs to dominate the conference as the alpha dog and the rest will take care of itself.

And yes, I am aware Boise State is in that conference. They need to elevate themselves to BSU's level. They have considerable advantages over BSU.

Why did ESPN pay up for a Pac 12 that is mediocre in football and god awful in hoops?

 

[freescooter]

Why did ESPN pay up for a Pac 12 that is mediocre in football and god awful in hoops?

To paraphrase Buddy from Friday Night Lights, I have two words for you, USC. You're right that nobody cares about most of the PAC12ish. But Southern Cal is one of the blue bloods and everyone wants them. That is one of the huge issues that the Big East faces. It doesn't have a USC or a Texas or a Ohio State. One of those teams that people watch even if they don't care that much. In fact, the only reason the the Big East was included in the original BCS (whatever it was called) was the presence of Miami. You can't have a national championship without USC or Ohio State or Texas or a few others playing if they are undefeated and call it legitimate, so you need to lock them up. Not the same with UCONN or Central Florida.

 

[06029]

Why did ESPN pay up for a Pac 12 that is mediocre in football and god awful in hoops?

USC. Their aura is almost ND's. UCLA - the Wooden aura has not died. And, I think most of the east coast is ignorant of the Pac10 and how good some of their football programs are and have been historically. For a mediocre league, they have 2 BCS teams this year and 2 BCS teams last year. And find me the last year they did not have a team in the top 10 (outside of the Reggie Bush vacated year by USC) and at least 2 in the top 25. The BE would kill to be that mediocre.

 

[freescooter]

USC. Their aura is almost ND's. UCLA - the Wooden aura has not died. And, I think most of the east coast is ignorant of the Pac10 and how good some of their football programs are and have been historically. For a mediocre league, they have 2 BCS teams this year and 2 BCS teams last year. And find me the last year they did not have a team in the top 10 (outside of the Reggie Bush vacated year by USC) and at least 2 in the top 25. The BE would kill to be that mediocre.

aside form the problem of quality, the PAC 12ish has issues with eyeballs. Most games are played late which is a huge problem and one they continue to try and address. but you almost cannot play an early season day game in parts of the conference and late games compete with too many others in eastern and midwestern markets. In fact many eastern newspapers don't even have scores, nevermind reports. It is a huge reason why many are ignorant as you say about the PAC teams.

 

[HuskyHawk]

That is just ignorant. We can associate with the B1G or ACC in lots of different ways. The primary driver for the athletic program by far is how much cash flow it generates. Exposure is secondary. Everything else is borderline irrelevant.

Ignorant? If you don't believe that this is absolutely the case you must be one of the biggest morons of all time. Nothing about this process could be more black and white. Even if Pitt, Cuse, BC and VT were still in the BE and we hadn't added USF and these other less desirable schools, UConn would take those invites instantly, just for the added prestige.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

To paraphrase Buddy from Friday Night Lights, I have two words for you, USC. You're right that nobody cares about most of the PAC12ish. But Southern Cal is one of the blue bloods and everyone wants them. That is one of the huge issues that the Big East faces. It doesn't have a USC or a Texas or a Ohio State. One of those teams that people watch even if they don't care that much. In fact, the only reason the the Big East was included in the original BCS (whatever it was called) was the presence of Miami. You can't have a national championship without USC or Ohio State or Texas or a few others playing if they are undefeated and call it legitimate, so you need to lock them up. Not the same with UCONN or Central Florida.

So ESPN/Fox pay over $300 million a year for a league for 1 team? Why not just pay USC $30 million to go independent?

 

[uconnbill]

If the Big East goes by how you feel they should just close job and say screw it.
WTF is wrong with you people. UConn is stuck here for now and we should want the best for them in this conference. We understand they don't have the same power as before, but my gosh can you be anymore of a stick in the mud, seriously....All we hear from you is how things are.

Exactly. The previous BE/ACC offers are red herrings.

Also, the truth is, as as they are at FB, Wake and even freaking Duke are bigger names/ratings draws nationally than UCF and SMU. Maybe Duke is better than SMU, but it's close.

SMU is irrelevant. Houston is irrelevant after this year. UCF is irrelevant and is about to get whacked by the NCAA. SDSU is irrelevant and in SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA.

Wake and Duke might suck, but you know what? They're Duke and Wake Forest. Real schools with real fanbases and established cred (Duke BB). The rest are nothing, just nothing, warm bodies with nothing to them.

This stuff doesn't fall from the sky. It's based on facts. UCF can pass by a lot of schools if you give them 50 years. You want UConn sticking around with these teams for 50 years? Or do you want them in a real league?

 

[uconnbill]

Rising national power? I think it is very unlikely that Boise St. will be as good over the next 5 years as they were over the last 5 years. I think they already peaked and are probably headed downward.

You don't know that as does anyone else. You are speculating and by speculating you are rooting against the Big East.
So tired of the naysayers on here.

 

[06029]

So ESPN/Fox pay over $300 million a year for a league for 1 team? Why not just pay USC $30 million to go independent?

Because they have been in the Pac10/12 forever and ND has been independent just as long. Perhaps they value conference affiliation.

You miss the other points that refute your claim that Pac12 FB is mediocre. 2 BCS bowl teams multiple times including the past 2 years, multiple top 25 teams yearly. And for someone that touts market size, the Pac12 has #2, #5, #13, #14, #17 and #22 markets, otherwise known as 6 of the top 25 markets in the country. And the member schools actually play in those markets, are among the top teams in the conference on a regular basis in those markets and are the top draws for college sports in their respective markets. So yes, there is a reason the Pac12 was able to swing a solid TV deal.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You don't know that as does anyone else. You are speculating and by speculating you are rooting against the Big East.
So tired of the naysayers on here.

I'm a UConn fan. At this point, I'm no longer a Big East fan. Some of the programs that I was interested in are leaving. I have never had the slightest interest in USF, DePaul or Cincinnati and my only interest in Louisville is an intense dislike. I have zero interest in SMU or USF, and Boise is interesting only if they are playing UConn and are highly ranked. I wish good things on Rutgers and Georgetown. Marquette is ok too. Glad to see them revive the program. My speculation on Boise is based on the fact that they have a flimsy foundation. Mediocre recruiting territory, not very appealing school, not much money, no real history. They may surprise. But schools with more going for them (Colorado) have risen and fallen over the years.

In any case, my days as a flag waving BE fan are over. We can't get out soon enough. I want what's best for UConn and this isn't it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I think HartbeatHusky's original purpose was just to point out there isn't a downside for NBC to make a hypothetical offer to the BE including Pitt/Syr, not to actually debate whether or not it would happen or whether or not Pitt/Syr would even consider the offer.

I agree with him that they could make that offer...I for one don't think any offer would change their minds but money talks and money creates stability. Like he says, what do they have to lose?

 

[BlueMAB]

Why did ESPN pay up for a Pac 12 that is mediocre in football and god awful in hoops?

You answered your own question in the previous post.

Exposure.

 

[BlueMAB]

I think HartbeatHusky's original purpose was just to point out there isn't a downside for NBC to make a hypothetical offer to the BE including Pitt/Syr, not to actually debate whether or not it would happen or whether or not Pitt/Syr would even consider the offer.

I agree with him that they could make that offer...I for one don't think any offer would change their minds but money talks and money creates stability. Like he says, what do they have to lose?

The downside is it puts a number on the table that isn't realistic. In negotiations, you don't help out the other side by giving them inflated numbers based on hypotheticals.

If they put a huge number on the table, they've set the bar. Now the Big East can negotiate using that number less the value of the departing 3.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because they have been in the Pac10/12 forever and ND has been independent just as long. Perhaps they value conference affiliation.

You miss the other points that refute your claim that Pac12 FB is mediocre. 2 BCS bowl teams multiple times including the past 2 years, multiple top 25 teams yearly. And for someone that touts market size, the Pac12 has #2, #5, #13, #14, #17 and #22 markets, otherwise known as 6 of the top 25 markets in the country. And the member schools actually play in those markets, are among the top teams in the conference on a regular basis in those markets and are the top draws for college sports in their respective markets. So yes, there is a reason the Pac12 was able to swing a solid TV deal.

By multiple ranked teams, do you mean 2? Because that is how many Pac 12 teams were ranked at year end last year. They got 4 teams (including Utah) ranked in 2008. The Big East was pretty good back then too.

The Pac 12 has the LA market? The same market that is so valuable that the NFL hasn't been there in about 20 years? A funny thing about living in paradise is that you don't spend a lot of time in the stands or in front of a TV watching sports. But maybe you know more than the NFL? I will give you that the Pac 12, like the Big East, has some pretty good markets.

You ever heard of time zones? You ever wonder why it is still light out in Oregon when it is 7 pm in Connecticut? That same feature means that a prime time game on the east coast kicks off at 4 pm on the west coast, still early enough to capture some audience. The corollary isn't true though. When a prime time game on the west coast kicks off, the east coast audience is either out or in bed. Makes those games a lot less valuable.

We can all agree that Pac 12 basketball, outside of UCLA and Arizona, is pretty awful and has limited market appeal, right?

Yet this league is worth over $300 million a year for 12 schools. And guys like you and Z are saying the Big East is worth 10% of that?

 

[HuskyHawk]

By multiple ranked teams, do you mean 2? Because that is how many Pac 12 teams were ranked at year end last year. They got 4 teams (including Utah) ranked in 2008. The Big East was pretty good back then too.

The Pac 12 has the LA market? The same market that is so valuable that the NFL hasn't been there in about 20 years? A funny thing about living in paradise is that you don't spend a lot of time in the stands or in front of a TV watching sports. But maybe you know more than the NFL? I will give you that the Pac 12, like the Big East, has some pretty good markets.

You ever heard of time zones? You ever wonder why it is still light out in Oregon when it is 7 pm in Connecticut? That same feature means that a prime time game on the east coast kicks off at 4 pm on the west coast, still early enough to capture some audience. The corollary isn't true though. When a prime time game on the west coast kicks off, the east coast audience is either out or in bed. Makes those games a lot less valuable.

We can all agree that Pac 12 basketball, outside of UCLA and Arizona, is pretty awful and has limited market appeal, right?

Yet this league is worth over $300 million a year for 12 schools. And guys like you and Z are saying the Big East is worth 10% of that?

Wow, Nelson and I agree on something this time. Having lived in CA, I respectfully submit that apart from some USC fans in LA, the place is devoid of interest in college football. It's not on the radar. Yes, Stanford and Cal fill the stands when they are good or play each other, but nobody else in the Bay Area cares...everyone who cares is at the game. Oregon and Washington do have solid followings. But the time zone is definitely a problem.

Basketball is different, there is a little interest in college basketball. I disagree it is awful. USC has been good, Washington has been good, and Cal and Stanford as well (and now Utah). It's a much better basketball league than football. But, sadly, I spent 1999 in the Bay Area, watching the Huskies win it all in sports bars where nobody was even aware that the NCAA tournament was going on. I talked to a guy from Jersey for awhile as we watched one game while everyone else was oblivious. It was pathetic. It was the last straw for me, and I moved to Massachusetts.

That doesn't mean it isn't a stronger league than the NBE, it is. It means that the Pac10 contract was way overvalued, and a mistake.

 

[06029]

By multiple ranked teams, do you mean 2? Because that is how many Pac 12 teams were ranked at year end last year. They got 4 teams (including Utah) ranked in 2008. The Big East was pretty good back then too.

The Pac 12 has the LA market? The same market that is so valuable that the NFL hasn't been there in about 20 years? A funny thing about living in paradise is that you don't spend a lot of time in the stands or in front of a TV watching sports. But maybe you know more than the NFL? I will give you that the Pac 12, like the Big East, has some pretty good markets.

You ever heard of time zones? You ever wonder why it is still light out in Oregon when it is 7 pm in Connecticut? That same feature means that a prime time game on the east coast kicks off at 4 pm on the west coast, still early enough to capture some audience. The corollary isn't true though. When a prime time game on the west coast kicks off, the east coast audience is either out or in bed. Makes those games a lot less valuable.

We can all agree that Pac 12 basketball, outside of UCLA and Arizona, is pretty awful and has limited market appeal, right?

Yet this league is worth over $300 million a year for 12 schools. And guys like you and Z are saying the Big East is worth 10% of that?

Okay. If in 2010 having the #2 and #4 ranked teams, and this year having the #4 and #5 teams means mediocre football (excluding USC which was probably a top 10 team this year), then what is the BE? And your point about time zones shows your ignorance as well. The west coast watches the late game but I doubt they are watching the noon EST starts. So it flows both ways. Just because you are having dreams after 11 on Saturday night, other parts of the country have just finished dinner and are settling in for some TV watching.

I am not suggesting anything other than your characterization of the Pac10 as a mediocre FB league is wrong. I can see its value based on its markets and its teams and I can see how they garner a decent sized contract. I ask you once again, tell me what the BE is if the Pac10/12 is mediocre in FB? And if time zones are an issue, then what the hell value does SDSU and Boise add to the conference?

And if the BE is going to be so valuable, then why does every team that is not a directional state school or a pending addition to the conference want to leave?

 

[uconnbill]

I'm a UConn fan. At this point, I'm no longer a Big East fan. Some of the programs that I was interested in are leaving. I have never had the slightest interest in USF, DePaul or Cincinnati and my only interest in Louisville is an intense dislike. I have zero interest in SMU or USF, and Boise is interesting only if they are playing UConn and are highly ranked. I wish good things on Rutgers and Georgetown. Marquette is ok too. Glad to see them revive the program. My speculation on Boise is based on the fact that they have a flimsy foundation. Mediocre recruiting territory, not very appealing school, not much money, no real history. They may surprise. But schools with more going for them (Colorado) have risen and fallen over the years.

In any case, my days as a flag waving BE fan are over. We can't get out soon enough. I want what's best for UConn and this isn't it.

I am not happy with how things turned out and blame ESPN 100% for this debacle. I want UConn to be successful no matter where they go. I am hoping for the ACC but if that doesn't happen I want the Big East to be successful as it only helps UConn out.

 

[RS9999X]

Will the PAC-12 network be on every cable set in their Footprint? Yes. There's no college competition. And likely sets in New Mexico and Nevada.

65 million people in their 6 state footprint and estimated to grow to 78 million by 2020.
20 milllon plus cable subscribers and the only legit college game in town.

The big question: can the PAC field one national game of interest each week for the 7:00 PM EST slot and can it pull a consistent 4.0 or better so that ESPN wins its time slot? Will it draw better than a non-Cincy BE game in Cincy pror Luisville in the same time slot? We know that answer. USC v. Oregon or Oregon v Boise or USF v Rutgers?

 

[ctchamps]

Okay. If in 2010 having the #2 and #4 ranked teams, and this year having the #4 and #5 teams means mediocre football (excluding USC which was probably a top 10 team this year), then what is the BE? And your point about time zones shows your ignorance as well. The west coast watches the late game but I doubt they are watching the noon EST starts. So it flows both ways. Just because you are having dreams after 11 on Saturday night, other parts of the country have just finished dinner and are settling in for some TV watching.

I am not suggesting anything other than your characterization of the Pac10 as a mediocre FB league is wrong. I can see its value based on its markets and its teams and I can see how they garner a decent sized contract. I ask you once again, tell me what the BE is if the Pac10/12 is mediocre in FB? And if time zones are an issue, then what the hell value does SDSU and Boise add to the conference?

And if the BE is going to be so valuable, then why does every team that is not a directional state school or a pending addition to the conference want to leave?

I think nelson is understating the Pac football wise and you are understating the contract. The Pac has the best contract and is arguably the fourth or fifth best conference, currently the fourth. So I'm scratching my head on the Pac contract as well as the ND contract, both of which are not close to where logic tells me they should be.

This doesn't indicate one way or the other where the NBE contract will be. All it says is that there is more than just logic in the valuation of contracts.

 

[mattp]

They have everything to gain. Period. It's that simple. Making an offer that would be predicated on keeping Cuse, Pitt, and/or WVU costs nothing.

what do you mean it would cost nothing, didn't you just say you thought it would cost them $20 million/team? Question Mark. i don't know why you think NBC can afford to lost a billion dollars over the next 6 years if this doesn't work out

 

[HartbeatHusky]

what do you mean it would cost nothing, didn't you just say you thought it would cost them $20 million/team? Question Mark. i don't know why you think NBC can afford to lost a billion dollars over the next 6 years if this doesn't work out

I really can't believe this has to be explained but maybe this is why so many of you don't get this. Before any contract is signed various offers and counter offers will be made contingent on many variables. It cost nothing to say here is what we pay for the contract IF Cuse and Pitt can somehow be retained and if they are not retained there will be a completely different number. Before this offer including Cuse and Pitt can be signed they would obviously have to agree in writing to remain in the BE for the duration of the contract. This costs nothing to do and most likely will cost nothing since everyone is so sure there is no amount that could change their minds.

 

[mattp]

the rest of us need it explained to us because we don't think the NBC executives are bored enough to sit around and conjure up bids at conferences that don't exist on the off chance that it will make something happen.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

the rest of us need it explained to us because we don't think the NBC executives are bored enough to sit around and conjure up bids at conferences that don't exist on the off chance that it will make something happen.

Kind of like ESPN did when it told the ACC which schools to add?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

the rest of us need it explained to us because we don't think the NBC executives are bored enough to sit around and conjure up bids at conferences that don't exist on the off chance that it will make something happen.

Kind of like ESPN did when it told the ACC which schools to add?

Exactly, Nelson. And the major difference here is that they don't have to use their imagination one bit. These schools will still be in the Big East when the deal is negotiated and finalized. It would be much easier then instigating a conference to raid another conference. Everyone will be able to talk to each other. All they have to do is ask is this amount enough to get you to stay? The answer can either be no and no amount would be enough or it can be no that is not enough but are you willing to increase the offer. This is not imaginary at all. Contrary to what you guys think this will definitely happen if nothing changes regarding their departure dates.

 

[RS9999X]

Kind of like ESPN did when it told the ACC which schools to add?

You devalue headhunters and media consultants and wannabe movers and shakers and alumni armed with the Nielsen regionals, logo sales, advertiser demographics for local markets, bowl ratings, population growth across demographic segments, and everything else that gets packed into a first rate media proposal.

It's good to be king. ESPN is king. They hold court and listen to the proposals. The BE as "The Sick Man fo the BCS" ready to be carved up like the Ottoman Empire is nothing new.

There's only 5 teams left and no ones talking USF seriously. UConn remains a small market and Rutgers is a complete screw up. Put UConn in NJ and UConn would be in the ACC. Put Rugers in CT and they'd be in the MAC if lucky.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/sports/nbc-sports-chief-aims-to-build-an-empire.html

"The quail-hunting Lazarus will reduce Versus’s successful hunting and fishing shows while seeking college rights, like the overhauled Big East Conference’s, and others that will become available in the next year or two, like those of Major League Baseball and Nascar. An eight-game Thursday night N.F.L. schedule could be auctioned even sooner."​

Nobody knows how much they are going to pay but what we do know is that they are trying to build their network and that the Big East is a part of that vision. I'd say they need the Big East more than the Big East needs them but that is just this one man's opinion. I think they will want a strong and viable Big East so I don't know it will be a blockbuster deal but it should be enough to keep the most attractive members. ​