What Does NBC Have to lose?

[HartbeatHusky]

ESPN is rumored to have boosted the ACC $5MM a school for adding Pitt and Syracuse. Since the ESPN deal with the ACC has not been finalized, there is no way to know, but it is safe to assume there was a meaningful bump since the Pitt and Syracuse had been behind turning down an ESPN deal that would have paid the Big East about $11MM/year. Would they have bothered to leave for an extra $2MM a year? Would the ACC have bothered to add 2 teams for no incremental revenue?

I think so to try to avoid falling to last place and having the Big East surpass them. I don't think it will be a $5 mil increase. I don't see how that really benefits ESPN or why the ACC would have the leverage to ask for that. An article I cited a while back said they expected it to be about a $2 mil per school increase and if the ACC didn't like it they'd have to go to arbitration. We'll have to wait and see about all of this though.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I think so to try to avoid falling to last place and having the Big East surpass them. I don't think it will be a $5 mil increase. I don't see how that really benefits ESPN or why the ACC would have the leverage to ask for that. An article I cited a while back said they expected it to be about a $2 mil per school increase and if the ACC didn't like it they'd have to go to arbitration. We'll have to wait and see about all of this though.

Agreed. They would have left even if the money was the same.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Agreed. They would have left even if the money was the same.

I still think that they would have to consider staying in the Big East for anything approaching $20 mil per school regardless of what any of us might think the likelihood of that type of offer being put on the table is. It would be hard to walk away from being able to be in one of the top 2 or 3 TV revenue generating leagues to be in the 5th or 6th.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Agreed. They would have left even if the money was the same.

Yeah, they would lock in a lousy contract rather than take their changes on the open market with the chance of getting a very good contract.

Are there any businessmen on this board?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yeah, they would lock in a lousy contract rather than take their changes on the open market with the chance of getting a very good contract.

Are there any businessmen on this board?

Like Miami, VT and BC. It is largely about money, but not all about money. UConn would take $2m less to be in the ACC any day.

 

[06029]

Yeah, they would lock in a lousy contract rather than take their changes on the open market with the chance of getting a very good contract.

Are there any businessmen on this board?

Yes. And I have turned down some extremely lucrative appearing deals in the past 30 years. And at the end of the day, when my competitors complain about deal terms that did not work out like they should, client bankruptcy and being stuck as an unsecured creditor for that lucrative contract, I feel okay with my decision. And on the opposite end, I have rarely awarded contracts to the lowest bidder.You get what you pay for sometimes.

Whether or not the BE gets this huge offer from NBC (I am not a believer of this narrative) the BE is still a confederation of dis-similar schools (FB/BB interests do not align) and the current FB schools will still want to leave to just about any other major conference. So money is not the only motivation for leaving.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes. And I have turned down some extremely lucrative appearing deals in the past 30 years. And at the end of the day, when my competitors complain about deal terms that did not work out like they should, client bankruptcy and being stuck as an unsecured creditor for that lucrative contract, I feel okay with my decision. And on the opposite end, I have rarely awarded contracts to the lowest bidder.You get what you pay for sometimes.

Whether or not the BE gets this huge offer from NBC (I am not a believer of this narrative) the BE is still a confederation of dis-similar schools (FB/BB interests do not align) and the current FB schools will still want to leave to just about any other major conference. So money is not the only motivation for leaving.

Giving extreme examples proves the stupidity of your position, it doesn't justify it.

Pitt and Syracuse left because they a) were going to get more money and b) thought the Big East would go out of business (which would have resulted in them getting significant less money if they stayed and that happened).

I would not have thought it a tremendous insight to state that more money in a guaranteed deal is better than less money in a guaranteed deal. UConn needs to revamp its business program given some of the thinking on this page.

 

[06029]

Giving extreme examples proves the stupidity of your position, it doesn't justify it.

Pitt and Syracuse left because they a) were going to get more money and b) thought the Big East would go out of business (which would have resulted in them getting significant less money if they stayed and that happened).

I would not have thought it a tremendous insight to state that more money in a guaranteed deal is better than less money in a guaranteed deal. UConn needs to revamp its business program given some of the thinking on this page.

c) were tired of being in a confederation instead of a conference,
d) were tired of having any discussion of a split deferred (this goes back to 2002 when they all voted to explore a split of the conference),
e) did not understand or agree with the complete rejection of the early ESPN offer, and
f) saw the list of expansion candidates and realized that the BE FB conference was becoming C-USA with new time zone exposure.

I could go on and on. But a) is the biggest reason. And until this mythical NBC offer becomes a reality, they made a move that Uconn and RU would make in a heartbeat. And if NBC does come through with a huge deal, I can still see Uconn and RU jumping in two heartbeats at any conference invitation for all of the other reasons. That is why the original post in this very long thread remains a dream. Pitt, SU and WVU are leaving and no hypothetical offer from NBC for a conference that includes them is coming. All offers/TV contracts will be based on the new conference and will likely have some big caveats regarding changes in conference configuration and its impact on the dollars.

Ad hominem arguments do not make you right and certainly do not prove your point. All business decisions are driven by a multitude of factors and no decision is ever 100% right or wrong. I still learn from every decision I make and since I have owned, built, sold and continue to run my own business, I am putting myself on the line with every decision. I bet you think my decision to pay 100% of all health insurance costs for my employees is a really stupid business move and something they would never condone in business school because it is not consistent with the way the larger market operates and puts my bottom line at a competitive disadvantage. I really hope you do, because it will confirm what I already know.

 

[RS9999X]

$2 million more a year is enough to justify a move or expansion. That's $20 million over 10 years and builds a practice facility with some community (school) services--or a large enough cash flow to justify it the expansion.

An AD would be hard pressed to say "I turned down $20 million because I didn't want to play Pitt".

For SU and Pitt--both which knew in advance of the public about Oliver Luck's flirting with the SEC and ACC and B12--there didn't seem to be much choice. They did their due diligence and came back with solid offers that would be at around $5 million a year better than in a BE without WVU. It's likely during their phase-in they make what they would make under the $130 million proposal,

One AD leaked the $2 mil ACC figure earlier and based on the 2003 raid and phase-in numbers for V Tech it seems about right given the inflation.

Then there was the consensus thought that the BCS was moving towards four 16-team divisions--ever so slowly. If so, SU and Pitt have their seat even if the SEC raids a team or two from the ACC. What's the worse that happens to Pitt and SU? The B12 and SEC take Louisville and 3 ACC teams and UConn gets an offer to join the ACC as a 12th team. Not much downside there for SU or Pitt compared to the BE.

And as pointed out, RU and UConn would have taken those two slots if Pitt and SU said no of if they were offered first. The Flipper would get voted down.

They had to go. And $15 million makes them look like genius.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

$2 million more a year is enough to justify a move or expansion. That's $20 million over 10 years and builds a practice facility with some community (school) services--or a large enough cash flow to justify it the expansion.

An AD would be hard pressed to say "I turned down $20 million because I didn't want to play Pitt".

For SU and Pitt--both which knew in advance of the public about Oliver Luck's flirting with the SEC and ACC and B12--there didn't seem to be much choice. They did their due diligence and came back with solid offers that would be at around $5 million a year better than in a BE without WVU. It's likely during their phase-in they make what they would make under the $130 million proposal,

One AD leaked the $2 mil ACC figure earlier and based on the 2003 raid and phase-in numbers for V Tech it seems about right given the inflation.

Then there was the consensus thought that the BCS was moving towards four 16-team divisions--ever so slowly. If so, UConn and Pitt have their seat even if the SEC raids a team or two from the ACC. What;s the worse that happens to Pitt and SU? The B12 and SEC take Louisville and 3 ACC teams and UConn gets an offer to join the ACC as a 12th team/ Not much downside compared to the BE.

And as pointed out, RU and UConn would have taken those two slots if Pitt and SU said no of if they were offered first. The Flipper would get voted down.

They had to go. And $15 million makes them look like genius

Keep telling yourself it is $2 per team. I think the number is much bigger, and I have seen the $5MM from an AD. It brings them up to market pricing, and if they were going to do ESPN's dirty work, they would have gotten at least that much.

 

[whaler11]

Everyone knows NBC wants in, and despite the opinions of media experts Z, Whaler and WingU, they will pay up. How much? It will be a big number. Maybe not ACC big, but big.

I guess lump Pitt and Syracuse in with me and Wingnut - because they didn't think the cash was there either.

 

[CL82]

I guess lump Pitt and Syracuse in with me and Wingnut - because they didn't think the cash was there either.

Nah, it was a classic prisoner's dilemma, brilliantly executed by Swofford. "We have 10 (unnamed) schools who have asked to join the conference. We are offering you first. Decide within 48 hours because a minute later we'll go to the next on the list. Cuse and Pitt have no idea if any of the 10 are Big East. If they decide to do the right thing and UConn and West Virginia, or any two really, they are screwed. So they jump, screwing everyone else even if that meant going to scandal ridden conference that they will be treated like second class citizens and foregoing a potential bigger pay day in a conference with natural rivals. I don't like Swofford but the guy executed RAID II flawlessly.

 

[whaler11]

Nah, it was a classic prisoner's dilemma, brilliantly executed by Swofford. "We have 10 (unnamed) schools who have asked to join the conference. We are offering you first. Decide within 48 hours because a minute later we'll go to the next on the list. Cuse and Pitt have no idea if any of the 10 are Big East. If they decide to do the right thing and UConn and West Virginia, or any two really, they are screwed. So they jump, screwing everyone else even if that meant going to scandal ridden conference that they will be treated like second class citizens and foregoing a potential bigger pay day in a conference with natural rivals. I don't like Swofford but the guy executed RAID II flawlessly.

Why do we call it the Conference Realignment Board... when Fantasy Board is not only more concise, it's more accurate.

 

[CL82]

Why do we call it the Conference Realignment Board... when Fantasy Board is not only more concise, it's more accurate.

How so?

 

[zls44]

How so?

Because people actually think the Big East will get a similar deal to the ACC.

Make no mistake, if they do, it is ONLY because NBC is wasting money. NOT because it makes sense. It doesn't.

 

[Hoophound]

It could be argued that NBC can't buy the Big East on the cheap. If they do, it will make their main college product even more disrespected. They need to pay a sum that makes the Big East look like it has a future.

ESPN on the other hand, can pay very little, refuse to market the conference and kill it a little more slowly than they had hoped to when they conspired with the ACC this year.

 

[zls44]

ESPN on the other hand, can pay very little, refuse to market the conference and kill it a little more slowly than they had hoped to when they conspired with the ACC this year.

The next piece of proof given on this idea will be the first.

 

[Hoophound]

The proof is in the pudding. ESPN has made no effort to talk up the Big East and has always pretended the ACC was superior, even when it wasn't. It is blatantly obvious, especially in regard to football. The only thing that can be offered as proof on either side of this argument is that Gene D. said they talked about it. What proof can you offer that ESPN in actuallity values the Big East?

 

[epark88]

In order for NBC/Comcast to receive any major ROI from the Big East, they will have to:

a) Pay the league as if it's a big-boy conference. At worst, find out what the ACC's new payout will be and match/exceed it; at best, give the league the PAC-12 treatment. Then after they make the investment,...

b)Promote the bejeezus out of it. Use all the bells and whistles that the other BCS leagues benefit from: non-stop blather from daily talk shows, cut-ins during other sporting events, cross-marketing during normal NBC programming...the works. In short, make their viewers as aware (or as sick) of their product as CBS and ABC viewers are of the SEC and ACC, respectively.then...

c) Use the best broadcasters and technology they have on most (if not all) of their games. Quality on the screen and in listeners' ears will go a long way towards helping legitimize (read: sell) the Big East product. Break out all the fancy field-cams, mic the coaches/players, do all the stuff that gets done for the major games from the other leagues. Don't put no-name hacks on the biggest games, and if you're going to use women in the booth, if she knows her stuff (a Doris Burke, for example) then legitimize her by putting her front-and-center on ALL the big games. Tangenting here a bit - I say this because even though there are quite a few legit women around as announcers, having a female voice in the booth on a broadcast is still stigmatized as 'small-time'. As great as Burke is, have you ever heard her call a big SEC FB game? A BCS bowl? A major hoops tourney other than the Big East's? Exactly.

If NBC Sports and their new guy (Lazarus? PERFECT name, btw) really want to get into the CFB game they will have to roll up their sleeves and help the Big East off the mat perception- and money-wise,not only for their immediate bottom line but also to show the other BCS leagues that when their deals are up, there's another viable option to help promote their product effectively.

IMHO the Stamford Gang would be so much better for the Big East - and UConn - than the Bristol Boys. I kinda wish that Providence could break the ESPN deal and re-neg the TV deal now instead of next SEP...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think NBC will pay decent money, just because that is the market now. I think even the CUSA/MWC will get a big bump, and I believe they are going through with the merger despite losing Boise, Houston, SMU, UCF and SDSU because the merged conference will be able to renegotiate their media deal, and they will get a 3x or 4x deal next time around.

The bigger issue for NBC will be stability. I expect they will demand a media rights concession from each school such that the schools will not be able to leave during the term of the contract. If we go down this road, we can kiss every other conference goodbye for a while. ESPN never cared about this stuff because their goal was to nip away at the Big East and reduce what ESPN would have to pay for the conference.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The proof is in the pudding. ESPN has made no effort to talk up the Big East and has always pretended the ACC was superior, even when it wasn't. It is blatantly obvious, especially in regard to football. The only thing that can be offered as proof on either side of this argument is that Gene D. said they talked about it. What proof can you offer that ESPN in actuallity values the Big East?

He can't offer any proof.

 

[whaler11]

How so?

Because the way you outlined how Pitt and Syracuse ended up in the ACC is absurd.

 

[zls44]

The proof is in the pudding. ESPN has made no effort to talk up the Big East and has always pretended the ACC was superior, even when it wasn't. It is blatantly obvious, especially in regard to football. The only thing that can be offered as proof on either side of this argument is that Gene D. said they talked about it. What proof can you offer that ESPN in actuallity values the Big East?

Wow, how about the contract itself? How about the fact that they paid to broadcast the conference before it started?

 

[zls44]

He can't offer any proof.

My burden of proof is zero. None. YOU are the one making the accusations. It is YOUR responsibility to make the argument.

Your argument lies entirely in trusting Gene DeFillipo. I'm glad to see you trust Boston College and Gene DeFillipo. I don't.

Pretty confident in my side over yours. You have nothing. Nothing. Zero.

You may believe in your argument, but one thing is clear: you CANNOT prove it. So you take shots, call names, etc.

But one thing you never, ever do, is prove a damn thing. You keep waiting because, in your mind, you'll find some piece of evidence.

Problem is, you haven't.

 

[zls44]

c) Use the best broadcasters and technology they have on most (if not all) of their games. Quality on the screen and in listeners' ears will go a long way towards helping legitimize (read: sell) the Big East product. Break out all the fancy field-cams, mic the coaches/players, do all the stuff that gets done for the major games from the other leagues. Don't put no-name hacks on the biggest games, and if you're going to use women in the booth, if she knows her stuff (a Doris Burke, for example) then legitimize her by putting her front-and-center on ALL the big games.

In other words: gimmicks. Not that I blame you, considering how below-par the standard of Big East FB is compared to the Big 4 conferences.

You talk about not using no-names, but they don't have any name broadcast crews that don't do ND football. And they're gonna stay on ND football. So, obviously, you're going to get no-names- unless they go out and hire some big guns. It'd have to be folks who like the idea of being the #1 crew on their network, but willing to do so on a much smaller network (that has one (1) studio at the moment) with a lower level of football.

Another thing if they move to NBCU: How are you all planning on watching FB/BB games if you aren't local? Because those things will never be on Full Court/ESPN3, and NBC has neither the resources nor the effort to create an online video presence like ESPN & CBS. Ever think about that, or did that get lost in your anti-ESPN rage?