What Does NBC Have to lose?

[06029]

My point is that those schools will at least have the opportunity to reevaluate leaving as long as the 27 month clause holds up. Numbers will be presented including them and they can decide if it's enough to make them reconsider leaving. We know the starting point was pretty equal to the ACC and that wasn't on the open market.

The market will ultimately decide what happens but everyone has a price in this. If NBC/Fox make an offer closer to PAC 12 numbers than ACC numbers they'll have to think long and hard about staying.

Here is the base problem for NBC. They have ND on for 7 of the 12/13 weeks of college football. ND will not give up the right to be the featured and quite possibly the only game on NBC on Saturday. And if they do allow NBC to have another Saturday game, I am sure they will want to be paid for their concession. So you have less than 50% of the season available for the BE to be on the big boy network at a cost plus for ND. NBCSports/Versus is a minor player in the cable world just like the CBS Sports Network. No major games ever make those networks. So does NBC suddenly expand to be like ABC/ESPN with multiple games on Saturday and are there enough advertiser dollars available to justify a contract like you think should be offered? Highly unlikely in my opinion.

Here is the base problem with Fox. They have no CFB presence and the Fox regional affiliates have some ties to specific schools and conferences already. So does Fox add a national game on Saturday when they already have MLB thru October? That leaves 1 month and 1 week for CFB. Do they put in the dollars for a Saturday night game on the national network? Saturday is a pretty good ratings night for Fox and /X game that has had some decent west coast teams has had really poor ratings. Again, how does the the big contract fit into the reality for Fox? Everything would need to flow to the regionals and regional cable networks do lousy ratings which equals bad advertising revenue.

ABC/ESPN has approximately 24 slots to fill every week between weeknight (Wed-Fri) and Saturday games. They have the formula and they have the ratings and they know exactly what each team, on which night/day and market will bring. They were able to get the ACC on a lowball number that was a big jump over their prior number. They were going to give the BE the same and then you lose 2 teams that must have had some value to the BE contract proposal because the ACC contract will be going up when they join the ACC. And now the most successful BE team over the last 20 years is gone too. It is my opinion that the teams did not walk solely for money. They ran away because they determined that the BE was not working for them in many ways. I don't think adding 4 western schools takes away any of the fundamental reasons they are leaving nor will those 4 schools add enough value to the best and most likely bidder for the TV contract.

You can put lipstick on a pig and call it pretty if you want, but the BE is not pretty. It has not been pretty as an all sports conference for BCS football teams for a long time.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Here is the base problem for NBC. They have ND on for 7 of the 12/13 weeks of college football. ND will not give up the right to be the featured and quite possibly the only game on NBC on Saturday. And if they do allow NBC to have another Saturday game, I am sure they will want to be paid for their concession. So you have less than 50% of the season available for the BE to be on the big boy network at a cost plus for ND. NBCSports/Versus is a minor player in the cable world just like the CBS Sports Network. No major games ever make those networks. So does NBC suddenly expand to be like ABC/ESPN with multiple games on Saturday and are there enough advertiser dollars available to justify a contract like you think should be offered? Highly unlikely in my opinion.

Here is the base problem with Fox. They have no CFB presence and the Fox regional affiliates have some ties to specific schools and conferences already. So does Fox add a national game on Saturday when they already have MLB thru October? That leaves 1 month and 1 week for CFB. Do they put in the dollars for a Saturday night game on the national network? Saturday is a pretty good ratings night for Fox and /X game that has had some decent west coast teams has had really poor ratings. Again, how does the the big contract fit into the reality for Fox? Everything would need to flow to the regionals and regional cable networks do lousy ratings which equals bad advertising revenue.

ABC/ESPN has approximately 24 slots to fill every week between weeknight (Wed-Fri) and Saturday games. They have the formula and they have the ratings and they know exactly what each team, on which night/day and market will bring. They were able to get the ACC on a lowball number that was a big jump over their prior number. They were going to give the BE the same and then you lose 2 teams that must have had some value to the BE contract proposal because the ACC contract will be going up when they join the ACC. And now the most successful BE team over the last 20 years is gone too. It is my opinion that the teams did not walk solely for money. They ran away because they determined that the BE was not working for them in many ways. I don't think adding 4 western schools takes away any of the fundamental reasons they are leaving nor will those 4 schools add enough value to the best and most likely bidder for the TV contract.

You can put lipstick on a pig and call it pretty if you want, but the BE is not pretty. It has not been pretty as an all sports conference for BCS football teams for a long time.

NBC Sports/Versus is small time now but if you look at the investment they are making into it they clearly have big things planned for it. ESPN will not want to give up BE basketball completely even if they don't give two sh!ts about BE football and I think Fox will take a crack at it. I think we are going to be near the original ESPN offer regardless of what happens at the very least. Also, to think that the networks are not going to make a pitch that includes teams that are on the way out but will still be there when the deal is negotiated flies in the face of all logic and reality. I never said they will definitely offer enough money to change the trajectory of things but they may, and it's really not an outlandish possibility.

NBC has one shot to get into college sports in a big way for the next decade. If they miss it, they miss it and they will have no shot at being a player until sometime in the 2020's.

 

[zls44]

Something I find interesting reading the boards is how the RU/UConn fans want to abandon ESPN and the fans of the incoming schools can't wait to get on ESPN and get the heck out of CBS/NBC deals.

 

[zls44]

I think we are going to be near the original ESPN offer regardless of what happens at the very least.

Why? What do you base this on?

You do realize that when networks do cost analysis of these teams they look at what they actually rate and not OMG UCF=ORLANDO=ALL YOUR ORLANDO ARE BELONGING TO US right? UCF/SMU/Houston/SDSU don't rate for . Houston finally managed a half-decent rating in their last game (on ABC...what a coup that lawsuit was for ESPN/turd in the punchbowl it was for Fox) and then fell on their faces.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Exactly. The previous BE/ACC offers are red herrings.

Also, the truth is, as as they are at FB, Wake and even freaking Duke are bigger names/ratings draws nationally than UCF and SMU. Maybe Duke is better than SMU, but it's close.

SMU is irrelevant. Houston is irrelevant after this year. UCF is irrelevant and is about to get whacked by the NCAA. SDSU is irrelevant and in SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA.

Wake and Duke might suck, but you know what? They're Duke and Wake Forest. Real schools with real fanbases and established cred (Duke BB). The rest are nothing, just nothing, warm bodies with nothing to them.

This stuff doesn't fall from the sky. It's based on facts. UCF can pass by a lot of schools if you give them 50 years. You want UConn sticking around with these teams for 50 years? Or do you want them in a real league?

I can't believe I'm digging in on a debate over the crapppiestt teams in the ACC v. BE, but what the hell. It's day one of a two week vacation and none of the in-laws are here yet, so.....

You are way overselling the "name" of Duke or WF in football. Both programs are garbage, even though WF fields decent teams. SMU is a much bigger names nationally than either one of dook/WF for football. Not even close. UCF is a much better football team than dook and is far from irrelevant in the Florida markets.

If you want to believe dook/WF are much better bottom feeders, more power to you.

 

[zls44]

I can't believe I'm digging in on a debate over the crapppiestt teams in the ACC v. BE, but what the hell. It's day one of a two week vacation and none of the in-laws are here yet, so.....

You are way overselling the "name" of Duke or WF in football. Both programs are garbage, even though WF fields decent teams. SMU is a much bigger names nationally than either one of dook/WF for football. Not even close. UCF is a much better football team than dook and is far from irrelevant in the Florida markets.

If you want to believe dook/WF are much better bottom feeders, more power to you.

You ever look at ratings? Wake and Duke SHOULD be , but for some reason they rate above the CUSA's. Maybe it's Wake's run a few years ago, maybe it's because they tend to play a decent OOC home game once a year or are playing someone decent, maybe it's everyone wanting to tune in and see what new & innovative way Duke has come up to suck this year. But they both rate better than UCF/SMU/Houston. The commuter school thing is a major hurdle.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Something I find interesting reading the boards is how the RU/UConn fans want to abandon ESPN and the fans of the incoming schools can't wait to get on ESPN and get the heck out of CBS/NBC deals.

Why? What do you base this on?

You do realize that when networks do cost analysis of these teams they look at what they actually rate and not OMG UCF=ORLANDO=ALL YOUR ORLANDO ARE BELONGING TO US right? UCF/SMU/Houston/SDSU don't rate for ****. Houston finally managed a half-decent rating in their last game (on ABC...what a coup that lawsuit was for ESPN/turd in the punchbowl it was for Fox) and then fell on their faces.

Ratings in the Big East will improve for all of the new schools over their old conferences. You have to take that into account. Have you checked their local media at all to see how much play they are getting now that they are joining the BE? What were Louisville and Cincinnati's ratings before they moved to the Big East? Big East basketball will also be a selling point. NBC would not pay the MWC/CUSA the same that they would pay for the Big East even without Cuse, Pitt, WVU. Time will tell but NBC will certainly want to make it worthwhile for UConn, Louisville and Notre Dame to stay in the Big East. Lowballing it just so all 3 turn around and leave would really make it a bad investment.

 

[RS9999X]

NBC has one shot to get into college sports in a big way for the next decade. If they miss it, they miss it and they will have no shot at being a player until sometime in the 2020's.

I think its known they will bid. It doesn't mean they or ESPN will over pay. Larry Scott pushed his Asian PAC-12 deal and paraded his past success with building Asia for World Tennis. I'm not sure the BE has the same niche.

NBC Versus is interesting as NBC sports has a history of scheduling NASCAR, Tiger Woods tourneys, ice slating, NBA, or other events opposite college ball including manufactured events to draw ratings. It's easy for me to say that BE is low hanging fruit for them and lots of content. Do they see it that way? Or are more UFC style fighting events in the cards? They get pitched crap all the time to fill their spots including new Winter Racing events and new Wrestling/Fight Hybrids and Winter Golf.

I think they bite because it fits the Comcast regional model. Does the BE play well internationally or just the BE tourney? I have my doubts there.

 

[ctchamps]

If WV doesn't win the lawsuit and the B12 bounces them and goes after someone else, and the BE takes them back, then the BE football would be far better than currently exists. That could make things interesting.

My unicorns are deep purple, Fishy.

 

[businesslawyer]

WVU is not being bounced from the XII because they get hung up leaving the Big East. The XII knew darn well that was likely when they admitted WVU. They just can't admit they knew it to their legislatures.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You ever look at ratings? Wake and Duke SHOULD be ****, but for some reason they rate above the CUSA's. Maybe it's Wake's run a few years ago, maybe it's because they tend to play a decent OOC home game once a year or are playing someone decent, maybe it's everyone wanting to tune in and see what new & innovative way Duke has come up to suck this year. But they both rate better than UCF/SMU/Houston. The commuter school thing is a major hurdle.

Duke is a household name as a university, nationwide. Wake is less well known, but is a highly regarded university. SMU is fairly well known too, and had football glory. Houston is a school most people have never even heard of except for a few years of basketball glory.

Duke is far ahead in name recognition. SMU may be a wash with Wake. Houston is not known by anyone who doesn't remember phi slamma jamma.

 

[johnhelvete]

If WV doesn't win the lawsuit and the B12 bounces them and goes after someone else, and the BE takes them back, then the BE football would be far better than currently exists. That could make things interesting.

My unicorns are deep purple, Fishy.

The lawsuit is a negotiating ploy, the BE was unwilling to negotiate an early release for WV. Why would this go to trial? Total waste of money for both sides. Just have West Virginia pay a huge sum and be done with it.

 

[mavblues]

If we are just talking football I will take UCF and SMU over Wake and Duke.

+100 No contest.

The Debbie Downers in this thread fail to realize that NBC/Comcast is DESPERATE for sports content. To suggest it would lowball is ridiculous. They'll make a very attractive offer, and they'll be able to justify it because they need the content more than ESPN does.

New BE has tons of content. Football is coast to coast, and other sports will cover many large media markets. And BTW, UCF is something like the 2nd largest school in the US...

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked (pleasantly) by the size of the new TV deal.

 

[johnhelvete]

My point is that those schools will at least have the opportunity to reevaluate leaving as long as the 27 month clause holds up. Numbers will be presented including them and they can decide if it's enough to make them reconsider leaving. We know the starting point was pretty equal to the ACC and that wasn't on the open market.

The market will ultimately decide what happens but everyone has a price in this. If NBC/Fox make an offer closer to PAC 12 numbers than ACC numbers they'll have to think long and hard about staying.

August 2, 2011
http://blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/pitt-redshirt-diaries/28860-big-east-media-day

"But Pederson isn't interested in adding just anyone, nor is the rest of the conference, which is where this could get very interesting because behind closed doors, there are less discussions about the Central Florida, Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, Army, Navy-type teams (you know, the ones which are always thrown out there) and more about the teams which may be ripe to be plucked from their current conferences for whatever reason.
The dream scenario would be the current league, plus TCU and BC and Maryland and if three schools of that quality were added, then a 12th school could be a Villanova or Central Florida and the conference would clearly be better. However, adding Villanova or Central Florida as the 10th school or adding both as the 10th and 11th schools would not add a thing to the conference and thus is not attractive to anyone at this point."

 

[junglehusky]

Not to change the subject too much, but UConn would MUCH rather associate with Duke (and to a lesser extent, Wake) than the other schools because of academic prestige. SMU isn't bad, but there aren't a lot of undergrads or grad students applying for SMU and UConn at the same time, but UConn wants a kids who apply to Duke to apply to UConn as well, and I imagine the grad programs really want some of the PhD students who apply to placed like Duke to also apply to UConn-Storrs or UConn Health Center.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

August 2, 2011
http://blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/pitt-redshirt-diaries/28860-big-east-media-day

"But Pederson isn't interested in adding just anyone, nor is the rest of the conference, which is where this could get very interesting because behind closed doors, there are less discussions about the Central Florida, Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, Army, Navy-type teams (you know, the ones which are always thrown out there) and more about the teams which may be ripe to be plucked from their current conferences for whatever reason.
The dream scenario would be the current league, plus TCU and BC and Maryland and if three schools of that quality were added, then a 12th school could be a Villanova or Central Florida and the conference would clearly be better. However, adding Villanova or Central Florida as the 10th school or adding both as the 10th and 11th schools would not add a thing to the conference and thus is not attractive to anyone at this point."

OK and of the bunch only UCF was added in conjunction with a rising national power in Boise St. We'll all just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Not to change the subject too much, but UConn would MUCH rather associate with Duke (and to a lesser extent, Wake) than the other schools because of academic prestige. SMU isn't bad, but there aren't a lot of undergrads or grad students applying for SMU and UConn at the same time, but UConn wants a kids who apply to Duke to apply to UConn as well, and I imagine the grad programs really want some of the PhD students who apply to placed like Duke to also apply to UConn-Storrs or UConn Health Center.

Nobody is disputing that. I'd like to see it but just don't see it happening anytime soon and a league with UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Boise St., Georgetown, Villanova, is still valuable and probably will end up with a decent TV contract. It's much more valuable than the MWC or CUSA ever could have been.

 

[johnhelvete]

OK and of the bunch only UCF was added in conjunction with a rising national power in Boise St. We'll all just have to wait and see what happens.

Pederson is the AD at Pitt and in this article he is talking about the future of the BE weeks before Pitt left for the ACC. Doesn't sound likely that Pitt is going to stay in the BE as you have suggested in this thread.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Pederson is the AD at Pitt and in this article he is talking about the future of the BE weeks before Pitt left for the ACC. Doesn't sound likely that Pitt is going to stay in the BE as you have suggested in this thread.

I never said it was likely. I said that money would be offered for them to do so and it would probably be more than what they'll be getting in the ACC. They will more than likely turn it down and say it's not all about the money.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You want UConn sticking around with these teams for 50 years? Or do you want them in a real league?

We have a choice, or are you just bitching again?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Something I find interesting reading the boards is how the RU/UConn fans want to abandon ESPN and the fans of the incoming schools can't wait to get on ESPN and get the heck out of CBS/NBC deals.

ESPN has already made it crystal clear what they want to happen to UConn athletics and the Big East. Why would the Big East be so stupid as to sign a long term deal with this network?

 

[zls44]

We have a choice, or are you just bitching again?

I don't think people should get their hopes up for a billion dollar contract. That's all. UConn needs to dominate the conference as the alpha dog and the rest will take care of itself.

And yes, I am aware Boise State is in that conference. They need to elevate themselves to BSU's level. They have considerable advantages over BSU.

 

[The Funster]

+100 No contest.

The Debbie Downers in this thread fail to realize that NBC/Comcast is DESPERATE for sports content. To suggest it would lowball is ridiculous. They'll make a very attractive offer, and they'll be able to justify it because they need the content more than ESPN does.

New BE has tons of content. Football is coast to coast, and other sports will cover many large media markets. And BTW, UCF is something like the 2nd largest school in the US...

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked (pleasantly) by the size of the new TV deal.

There is merit to this line of thought. However, it does have it's risks and I would expect NBC to be very prudent with it's offer. They won't splash the cash just because.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

There is merit to this line of thought. However, it does have it's risks and I would expect NBC to be very prudent with it's offer. They won't splash the cash just because.

It's not just because. It is an investment. You don't invest in a product that has name brands and then low ball it so that the biggest name brands feel like they have to go elsewhere. For that reason alone we can expect it to be on par with the ACC.

 

[The Funster]

It's not just because. It is an investment. You don't invest in a product that has name brands and then low ball it so that the biggest name brands feel like they have to go elsewhere. For that reason alone we can expect it to be on par with the ACC.

That's right. It's an investment. I wouldn't expect NBC to plunk down a ton of money just to get back in the game. Some of the biggest name brands have already left the BE and that is exactly why NBC should bid carefully. Don't get me wrong, I'd love the offer to be strong enough to keep what's left of the BE together but I'd be really surprised that NBC would be compelled to pay a premium for the NBE.