Well ... it's on.

[Bestiarius]

Am I the only one that thinks it will be decided by less than 10? I'm not pessimistic, I just see a South Carolina team that is battle tested in close games. UConn on the other hand is not so great in tight games.

UConn hasn't been in enough close games to determine how bad they are in that situation. Every game starts off as a close game - 0-0. Sometimes games are close at halftime, but they rarely end up close. Any game that is close with a minute or two at the end can be won by either team. At that point it's more luck than skill. Even bad teams can go on a run of 5 - 7 points at any time.

South Carolina has won their close games, but what team wants to be in the position that a wild lucky shot by the opposition causes a loss. What UConn does is slowly build a lead throughout the game to avoid the need for last minute heroics to win.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well, the Huskies are winning games by 40+ points a game, so tight games are not exactly an easy thing to find. They do seem to be doing reasonably well in blowouts, and if they play 3-on-5 maybe they can get a few of those close games to work with. Or maybe the Huskies can twiddle their thumbs for a bit to help teams get close so they can have one of those close games that would prove they're a decent team.

I've got a suggestion. Let's have UConn handicap the rest of its schedule so that if it doesn't win by 40, it's considered a loss. We could call it the "Boneyard Factor" since if the team doesn't win by at least that much there are a dozen doomsday threads, ten thousand fingernails get gnashed, and a lot of posters who weren't bald suddenly become hairless.

 

[DobbsRover2]

...and Real Time RPI has Carolina by 3.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_361_Women.html

Oh you mean the brain-dead rating system that has UConn at #7? Sure, there are a few RPI worshippers here who will agree with that. They also have USCar losing two SEC games and finishing 2nd in the conference to UTenn. So why do we even care about this game since RPI has decreed that both teams are middling? Think I'll go watch the Wofford-Chattanooga game that night, or maybe Howard vs. Hampton. Those are probably the meaningful games.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Oh you mean the brain-dead rating system that has UConn at #7? Sure, there are a few RPI worshippers here who will agree with that. They also have USCar losing two SEC games and finishing 2nd in the conference to UTenn. So why do we even care about this game since RPI has decreed that both teams are middling? Think I'll go watch the Wofford-Chattanooga game that night, or maybe Howard vs. Hampton. Those are probably the meaningful games.

If you click on the link it shows the Gamecocks winning the rest of their games.

 

[Farney]

cockhrnleghrn - If you were a vegas bookie, what would you set the spread at? Pretend you aren't an SC fan or on a UCONN board. Just an honest spread you'd set.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

cockhrnleghrn - If you were a vegas bookie, what would you set the spread at? Pretend you aren't an SC fan or on a UCONN board. Just an honest spread you'd set.

If I were a bookie I'd favor UCONN by 3 at home.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If you click on the link it shows the Gamecocks winning the rest of their games.

Not on the Warren Nolan index, which also has an RPI predictor index.

But thank you for your interest in a drab 7th rated Husky team. It really means a lot to Husky fans that fans from other teams take some interest in their free-falling team.

 

[Farney]

If I were a bookie I'd favor UCONN by 3 at home.

Ah ok. So basically its a pick'em on a neutral court (standard Vegas lines give 3 points to all home teams; Duke men get 1-2 extra as one of the exceptions) to you then. Be fun to see if its that close.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Not on the Warren Nolan index, which also has an RPI predictor index.

But thank you for your interest in a drab 7th rated Husky team. It really means a lot to Husky fans that fans from other teams take some interest in their free-falling team.

I take 'em one at a time. At 10:01 PM on Monday night I'll be thinking about a much improved LSU team.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Ah ok. So basically its a pick'em on a neutral court (standard Vegas lines give 3 points to all home teams; Duke men get 1-2 extra as one of the exceptions) to you then. Be fun to see if its that close.

That's what I believe.

 

[Geno-ista]

At least do some research before posting your drivel. Kentucky has played UConn twice in the last 15 years and neither game was officiated by Dee Kantner. When a statement that is factually inaccurate is in a post, it casts doubt on the accuracy of the rest of the ramblings.
Just to show you that there are no hard feelings, we do have a surprise waiting for you when you arrive in Storrs or rather mother nature does. I just hope your bus driver knows what he's doing. To quote BD. "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride." The only thing worse than the bus trip for the SC fans will be the results of the game.

You are close RV- the only thing worse than their bus trip up here, will be their bus trip home.

 

[Geno-ista]

The only concern I have about this game is that UConn might take USC lightly and look ahead to the game with Tulane.

Classic- really!!!!

 

[Vowelguy]

...and Real Time RPI has Carolina by 3.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_361_Women.html

To be clear that comes from the RealTime website's Power Ratings, not from its RPI ratings (which have no mechanism to predict margins, let alone games).

Sagarin ratings pick UConn by 8.5.
Massey ratings pick uconn by 13.

 

[Geno-ista]

If I'm not mistaken, that was Dawn's first year in Columbia and we finished 10-18. USC 64 UCONN 61. I've already written it on the board at work. Good luck and let's have a game for the aged on Monday night.

If u guys hold us to 61- u deserve to win. But if u guys hold us to 61, I don't see USC scoring out of the 50's. They are not a great scoring team, and we are now really strong defensively. I'm not seeing it- but I'm looking forward to being there!!!!

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

To be clear that comes from the RealTime website's Power Ratings, not from its RPI ratings (which have no mechanism to predict margins, let alone games).

Sagarin ratings pick UConn by 8.5.
Massey ratings pick uconn by 13.

Real Time RPI is the name of the website; I stand by my post.

 

[Vowelguy]

Real Time RPI is the name of the website; I stand by my post.

That web site has 2 ratings - an RPI and a power rating. Note that when you click n the predicted score, it is the exactly the same for both rating systems. Given that the RPI does not include scoring margin, it is inconceivable that someone could somehow devise a scoring algorithm out of an RPI. Also note that SC is picked to beat TN by 19. How would that be possible if the prediction were based on the RPi, which has TN higher than SC?

The prediction is coming from the power rating. Case closed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Real Time RPI is the name of the website; I stand by my post.

Well, you can stand by a pile-of-poop and naturally find yourself stuck in a bad place. Even discussing RPI is painful, but as VG says, Realtime RPI has no predictive abilities; it is merely a ranking tool to rate UConn as the #7 team in the nation. There is however a W-L tool that Warren Nolan uses to show how teams should finish out their season using the RPI ratings, and it shows USCar with two SEC losses, and also UConn losing to USF.

What you are referring to is a totally different index on the site called the RPI Power Index. Now if you are going to use that, than it is silly and ignorant to say USCar is favored by 3, even by that dumb index's system. All systems like Sagarin have a home\away factor of anywhere from 3 to 4 points for normal teams, so USCar would at best be a draw. But UConn generally should get a +20 point home court factor, so the predictor would be about 17 points for UConn.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Well, you can stand by a pile-of-poop and naturally find yourself stuck in a bad place. Even discussing RPI is painful, but as VG says, Realtime RPI has no predictive abilities; it is merely a ranking tool to rate UConn as the #7 team in the nation. There is however a W-L tool that Warren Nolan uses to show how teams should finish out their season using the RPI ratings, and it shows USCar with two SEC losses, and also UConn losing to USF.

What you are referring to is a totally different index on the site called the RPI Power Index. Now if you are going to use that, than it is silly and ignorant to say USCar is favored by 3, even by that dumb index's system. All systems like Sagarin have a home\away factor of anywhere from 3 to 4 points for normal teams, so USCar would at best be a draw. But UConn generally should get a +20 point home court factor, so the predictor would be about 17 points for UConn.

Monday night at 8pm we will find out.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Massey is saying UConn 76-63, and Sagarin has UConn by about 8.5. Definitely, we are dooooooooooomed!

. . . Sagarin ratings pick UConn by 8.5.
Massey ratings pick uconn by 13.

Actually, if you take the values from Sagarin's Predictor column (and add in his home
court advantage number) Sagarin picks UConn by 17.6.

So, they're both predicting a double digit win.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

The second best coach is about to make them the second best team.

mrmojack- - - Let records speak for themselves! On results already accomplished Dawn Staley doesn't rank in the top 10 coaching today! She has one regular season SEC title to her credit that doesn't rank with Geno Auriemma, Kim Mulkey, Tara VanDerveer, Gary Blair, Jeff Walz, Sheri Coale, Muffett McGraw, and I hate to add but must- Sylvia Hatchell, C. Vivian Stringer, and Brenda Frese! They all have either NCAA titles, been to the FF and/or FF Finals, won Conference Tournaments, Conference Regular Season Titles, or 600+ career wins! There is no doubt in my mind Coach Staley will achieve some of the above, but to date she has achieved basically nothing in her coaching career! So even if UCONN forfeits the game on Monday night, Coach Staley will have only one defining victory on her coaching record!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

scrooster- - - Geno is second best, "for now," until Dawn Staley establishes her superiority over Gene come Monday night.

I've said this before but it applies to your statement above, comparing Dawn Staley to Geno Auriemma is like comparing Mr. Ed to Secretariat!
Please see my previous post above to where Coach Staley ranks among today's coaches!

 

[rocky rococo]

Am I the only one that thinks it will be decided by less than 10? I'm not pessimistic, I just see a South Carolina team that is battle tested in close games. UConn on the other hand is not so great in tight games.

Not at all, when we had the score prediction thread a week or so ago, I predicted UConn70-67, home court advantage, and am sticking with that. (I guess that puts me with bookie CL.) I'm just not being too loud, there are those here that would be upset with predicting it so close, and I'm not up for salving tender sensibilities. I just happen to think that leaving aside the high-profile stars SoCar has a couple very underrated assets in Coates and Cuevas.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

mrmojack- - - I referenced your quote by mistake and wanted my statement to stand alone! My apologizes, I just turned 67 and my mind is floating away...................................................

 

[rvwsleep]

I don't get it. Are you equating Ohio St's program with ours? Because that would just be r e tar d ed, so that can't be it.

I'll spell it out for you since it was beyond your reach the first time. I was comparing the weather of the two locations. If we were in the big10 and had Urban Meyer as coach we would be able to attract football players regardless of the weather conditions.

 

[MaineFan]

Good luck and let's have a game for the aged on Monday night.

Wow. Nice typo.

 

[Bigpetunia]

Oh, and Scrooster, my friend, just one more point: We know and appreciate the tongue-in-cheek nature of your original post. But I, for one, wish you'd left out the part about Dee and the other refs. Look, do human beings sometimes blow calls, and sometimes do so egregiously? Of course! Can blown calls seriously affect a close game's outcome, especially down the stretch? Natch! But, pulling the classic routine of building in an advance excuse for an anticipated loss by suggesting, "the refs are gonna be against us?" Not only is there zero evidence to support that contention, but, frankly, it constitutes the ultimate losers' refrain, worthy of Notre Dame fans, but, I hope, not of you. Lets hope that we are on the brink of a truly great rivalry breaking out, and that there will be lots of fun back-and-forth "trash talk" to go along with it, but implicating some perceived bias on the part of the refs as determining the outcome of this or future games? I hope that the fans of neither side go there.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Welcome to the boneyard scrooster. I appreciate your candid humor and we love to have fresh followers of UConn Women basketball. Sarcasm is sometimes hard to pick out among the straightforward words you post. However I get that you want us to know Dawn Staley is a fine coach and will some day, maybe in another 20+ years of winning 30+ games a year, establish her superiority over Geno.

Dawn Staley would need a hell of a lot more than twenty 30 win seasons to come anywhere near what Geno has gone. Maybe closer to 30 thirty win seasons. There is no possibility at all because she's already so far behind him in terms of what she's done to this point of her career. She is a motivator and is a good head coach and a really good recruiter but comparing her to Geno is almost embarrassing!

 

[Buzzyboy]

Oh, and Scrooster, my friend, just one more point: We know and appreciate the tongue-in-cheek nature of your original post. But I, for one, wish you'd left out the part about Dee and the other refs. Look, do human beings sometimes blow calls, and sometimes do so egregiously? Of course! Can blown calls seriously affect a close game's outcome, especially down the stretch? Natch! But, pulling the classic routine of building in an advance excuse for an anticipated loss by suggesting, "the refs are gonna be against us?" Not only is there zero evidence to support that contention, but, frankly, it constitutes the ultimate losers' refrain, worthy of Notre Dame fans, but, I hope, not of you. Lets hope that we are on the brink of a truly great rivalry breaking out, and that there will be lots of fun back-and-forth "trash talk" to go along with it, but implicating some perceived bias on the part of the refs as determining the outcome of this or future games? I hope that the fans of neither side go there.

What it would suggest is that he doesn't follow women's basketball at all because if he (she) did follow the UConn/Notre Dame games over the last five years you might see that if there was any kind of officiating bias it was directed at UConn rather than against the Irish. The idea that it might have been the reverse is so totally ridiculous that it doesn't even warrant a response, though I guess I've just given him (her) one!

 

[Buzzyboy]

Attendance will be interesting. Students will show for sure. No doubt about that. Everyone else, who knows. Probably not what ESPN wants, but scheduling a big game in one of the most northern schools in early February is kind of silly and a bit of a crap shoot. Big game or not, driving in a snow and ice storm is dumb and not only puts fans at risk, but also our fire/police/paramedics that have to go out there and rescue them. Towards the end of next week we're looking at high temperatures possibly in the single digits, and we wonder why Connecticut doesn't get big time football recruits. Who the hell wants to come to our frozen tundra of a state when anyone with talent will likely have offers from nice warm southern schools? Like Coach Macy of ECU said: I don't know how you people do it. Connecticut where it's freezing seven months out of the year, or SEC country where it's beach weather seven months out of the year. Tough choice.

It is silly to schedule a big game at a northern school in early February because it never snows up in Connecticut in November or December or January, right? I do agree there is a bigger chance of a big snow fall in February than November but I do also remember in October of 2011 that we had a disastrous snowfall on Halloween that had over 600,000 residents without electricity for close to a week. It does happen. The likelihood for snowfalls in December, January and March aren't often that different than February so maybe the best thing is to never have a northern team have a home game against a highly ranked team, at least not on ESPN.

 

[HuskyNan]

So yeah, that was her then? I thought so.

You know, I cannot remember the month ... for some reason I was thinking it was late December of 1979 but maybe it was January of 80 if I was home at that time. That was towards the end of my commission. It could have been I guess because I do remember going to Coach McGuire's office with Barbara and there were some football recruits in there visiting, so it may have been January, I just cannot remember. The whole Gedney thing was big news, a big deal, down here though. We had already signed one of her very good friends a year or two before that but everyone wanted Gedney because she was such a natural born shooter. If the 3-ptr would have been in effect back then there is no telling how many points she could have scored in her career. And she was money from the FT line. Was it a scrimmage? I dunno - I don't think so - although I do remember there not being many people there, but there were never many people at those games back then. It wasn't like it is today. Almost no one cared about women's basketball except for us and Tennessee, Old Dominion, La Tech, Delta State, and maybe SoCal and Texas.

I'm trying to remember what Chris said but, geez, it was 11 years ago. I'm lucky if I remember what happened yesterday.

I was talking to Chris on the phone and scribbling like mad. In looking at the 1979-1980 schedule, UConn played Duke, North Carolina, and Auburn. Maybe she said she went through South Carolina? My mistake for not researching.